Poll #1 Hobby Stability

[Anonymous]

I just recently got back into the hobby after a 40 year absence. From what I've seen in this short time, I would say that the hobby is just barely holding it's own or starting a slow decline.

The younger people just don't have the same appreciation for the hobby that the ,,,,, "Baby Boomers" have! We were brought up with the magic of model railroading! For me, this hobby is a link to the past. Of a happier time!!!! The present generation didn't have that connection,,, no fault of their own!!

Hopefully, it will continue with the help of us older folks introducing the excitement of the hobby to the younger set!

[rexhea]

It is very difficult for me to add anything to the excellent depth and insight already expressed on this subject, but I would like to try with a few thoughts.

In the consideration of todays young people, I believe with many of you that traditional hobbies have a great amount of competition with the "quick fix" new technologies. If you ask a teen, he will tell you that his video games, CD collection, and etc... are his hobbies. I didn't have this technology in the late 50's and early 60's, but I did have cars, girls, and sports and very overactive hormones. There was no way I was going to spend my very very valuable free time in a hobby that was going to jeopardize my new found independence to cruise and smooze. Don't you remember?

It was not until my late 20's and married that I decided to start a hobby in Model Railroading. Well, this sounded good until I realized that like most young marrieds, i really didn't have the money or the space and little time. Today, if you take a long look at our society; Has that changed? Family members with their own cell phones, soccer moms ran ragged chasing from one after school event to another, both parents working to support all this. If there's money, where is the time?

Prices? I don't really think that they are any different than the late 60's when you consider inflation. My goodness, I use to buy a Coke for a nickel, but 5 dollars an hour was very good wages. What you need to do is compare a medium priced boxcar of the 60's to one of present. The difference is incredible. The improved injection molding process providing the smallest of detail and the laser printing with crisp letters that can be seen only with a magnifying glass. You can get this with an $8 car or a $30 car. An $8 car now was about $3 then and trust me when I say it looked like the whole thing was stamped out. And of course the high tech that's now in MR. Wow! What a jump.

I believe that the biggest failure in MR is the lack of promotion of a hobby that can capture the imagination of all ages. Who's to blame? All of us: the Model Railroading publishers, the manufacturers, the LHS's, and the Hobbyist. So many people have told me that they haven't thought of model trains since they were children. Antonio and others has already stated their thoughts and ideas about this and its time for all of us to make an extra effort to re-introduce our hobby to all.
Sorry, but a traveling boxcar won't get it.[:D]

REX

[darth9x9]

The biggest problem is that the average age of model railroaders is getting higher each year. More needs to be done to bring in MORE of the younger crowd.

[CNJ831]

I think it is very telling that after nine months and quite a few posts to this thread, not one poster could provide a single documented or verifiable indicator/statistic showing that the hobby was either stabile or growing. All that has been offered to that affect is baseless personal opinion.

Unfortunately, facts and figures supporting the opposite position, that the hobby is in decline, abound. Just a few include:

1. Steadily declining readership in essentially _all_ the model railroading magazines (figures posted in detail several times in earlier threads)
2. LHS heavily into model railroading disappearing across the country (everyone admits this)
3. Very limited runs at increasingly higher prices (the exact opposite of what we saw when the hobby was at its actual peak a decade and more ago (we're all complaining about this one and it's the same way the brass market evolved over the last 40 years)
4. WGH program, an obvious act of desperation by manufacturers who recognize a flagging interest in the hobby (not ever targeting those who might become longterm hobbyists)
5. The recent gobbling up of major manufacturers by distributors, something that would be very unlikely to occur in a field showing significant growth and promise - watch as this process grows over the next year or two (this sort of thing doesn't tend to happen when times are really good and there are big profits to be made)
6. Disappearance of train sets from toy and other classic commercial outlets that used to heavily invest in them for the Christmas Season (who hasn't notice this - the hobby has become all but obscure)
7. The current age of the "average" model railroader is very close to 55 years based on conservative extrapolation from 40 years of published MR readers surveys (again, figures have been cited in many earlier threads)

Need I go on?

Now believe me, I am pro-hobby and would love to point to indicators that said it was expanding but there just don't seem to be any. So, if someone can provide _verifiable facts/figures_ that clearly point in the opposite direction, please, let's hear them!

CNJ831

[jacon12]

As someone new to the hobby and not really qualified to answer the poll, I have made observations that I'd like to share. I've found that in my area the majority of model railroaders are not very good salespeople. The general attitude is one of aloofness and if you ask questions about the hobby they're mostly answered in a condesending manner. I've noticed that when clubs have their layouts at places such as the fairgrounds, with hundreds of people stopping for a minute or two to watch the trains, what are the club members doing? Everything but trying to recruit new members to the hobby. Oh they have a few club promoting literature sheets lying around, but they're sitting in a chair drinking coffee and watching the trains go round and round and round. I asked one man where did they meet and when, that I'd like to attend a meeting. The answer was "Oh, we meet at indivdiual members houses about every two weeks or so". And that was it. End of conversation.
I've been active in photography for over 45 years and have been a member, even president of the local camera club. Believe me, we had membership drives all the time. We gave prizes to whoever brought the most 'recruits' in a given month. And we called members that had not attended in a while to see if anything was wrong.
I don't see this in model railroading in this area. It's almost like if you want to do it fine, if you don't that's fine too. Whatever floats your boat.
Model railroading is chock full of skills that have to be learned. We all know what they are so no use in repeating them all. You probably all remember how bewildering it was in your beginning years. Experienced modelers, if they care about the hobby, whether it lives or dies, should help and teach as many beginners as possible and at least half those that they do help will be hooked for the rest of their lives. Don't be condesending to them, tell them about it's a LOT more than watching a train go round and round. So much more.
Now, if I'd answered the poll I think I would have said it is barely stable to losing ground.
But, it doesn't have to be that way.

[Anonymous]

I think it is in decline. Even the "toy train sets" that used to be on display everywhere around the holidays are gone. Although they weren't of any high quality, the Model Power and Bachmann plastic structures and the Bachmann train sets are not being carried anymore. The latter is what got me started in the hobby. I received a Bachmann train set as a gift about 10 years ago. It remained in the box until 2 years ago. Now I have a small fleet of P2K locos and about 30 Athearn BB freight cars, not to mention 20 or so structures and the beginnings of a moderate basement layout. If it hadn't been for that TOY set, I never would have given trains a second thought. I think the same will hold true for many. If they don't get that extremely economical start to spark the interest, they won't go any further. Like the saying goes, you don't know what you're missing!

[on30francisco]

I think the hobby is growing despite the facts that mors LHSs are closing and the subscriptions to modeling magazines are down. For better or worse, the number of online hobby shops have increased dramatically in the last several years offering the hobbiest much lower prices, the convenience of home shopping, and many more products - especially for us modelers in minority scales and gauges - than most LHSs. I realize that the LHSs have higher overhead costs compared to internet shops and have to charge more, but a few LHSs I've been to were very inflexable and charge list prices and had bad attitudes to boot. If the LHSs wi***o survive, they will have to be more flexible with their prices and stock and provide helpful, courteous servive to ALL their customers.

There is a lot more diversity in this hobby than there was ten to thirty years ago and it is impossible for one general magazine such as Model Railroader to cater to everyone's interests. Almost every special interest, prototype, scale, and gauge has at least one dedicated magazine. There is also a lot of information about modeling on the internet. A lot of the information available online will probably never be published in any modeling magazine. I believe the reason the subscription rate for MR is low is not because the hobby is declining but because there are many more sources of information available today than there was years ago. I know many modelers who used to subscribe to modeling magazines but don't anymore because they utilize the alternate resources available today to get the modeling information they need(myself included).

There are also many more products available today than there were years ago. Years ago you had to be either wealthy or a master craftsman to model narrow gauge, traction, or any other area of modeling outside the mainstream. Today there are products available - at very reasonable costs, and at all skill levels - that even a beginner can now model almost any facet of railroading. There are also many more detailing parts and scratchbuilding materials available than there was in the past.

[Anonymous]

I believe the hobby is at a major crossroad. Still plenty of people interested and participating, we all seem to have more disposable income than years ago. The availability of kits and RTR seems to be at an alltime high, and the quality of kits has improved greatly. Without a program like WGH, the hobby would decline as those of us in the hobby die off. It will take a continuing infusion of new people to keep the hobby where it is today or to perpetrate growth. Hats off to WGH. I believe as the word gets out and more of us become willing to share the hobby with others that continuing growth will occur. With the growth will come yet better kits and a broader selection of other related materials.
I agree that many of the model railroading magazines have disappeared, but I do not feel this is due to any decline in the hobby. I have long wondered just how many magazines the hobby could support. I believe the current decline is just a natural retrenchment. The magazines that best serve the market grow, others do not. I do believe the hobby is currently stable, but the future depends on programs like WGH to assure survival;

Tom

[Roadtrp]

From the World's Greatest Hobby site:

"There has been a surge of interest in model railroading in recent years, and as an industry we want to help build that momentum," explained Terry Thompson, editor of Model Railroader magazine. "With Baby Boomers enjoying more leisure time and discretionary income, they are looking for creative and satisfying pastimes. For many of them, model railroading is the ideal hobby-evoking the toys of their youth while offering them a challenge in the process."

[:)]

[CNJ831]

ACLfan posts-

CNJ Quote:
"In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years."

ACL Quote:
I'd love to see stats to back this up. I don't think it's true...

I direct you to material published over the past few years by HIA and articles appearing in the NY Times. Each indicated that while "Martha Stewart-type" craft interests are on the increase amongst women, traditional male-oriented hobbies are in decline. Lack of time being the most often cited reason.

Along this same line, I note that all the positive responses posted here have been totally lacking in any statistical backing whatever. While we may all wish (and I most definitely include myself) that our hobby was thriving, these views are little more than individual wishful thinking. Does anyone honestly have stats to demonstrate the contrary?

CNJ831

[Anonymous]

Are we talking about the stability of the model railroad industry or the stability of model railroading as a hobby?
If the hobby industry does a crash and burn, I'll still be a model railroader. How about you?

[Roadtrp]

I don't think the hobby is on the way out.

I do think the Local Hobby Shop is on the way out.

Just as Circuit City and Best Buy killed the neighborhood appliance guy, the big hobby chains and especially the Internet will kill the LHS.

But did the market for refrigerators or TV's or washing machines die? No, but the places where we bought them changed. In the future we will buy from a big hobby chain where people know nothing about MR, or we will buy from the Internet. In the future we won't be able to rely on the knowledge of the LHS owner, but forums like this will become even more valuable than they are now.

It will be sad to see the day of the LHS pass. But at the same time, the Internet will provide better advice and lower prices than the LHS ever did. So are we who are involved in the hobby winners or losers?

I have to say we will be the winners.

[dragenrider]

If we are not in decline as a hobby, then why are so many hobby shops closing and small manufactors disappearing? [sigh]

I think we are headed downhill. The hobby as it is today will all but vanish with the sunset of this generation.

So quoteth the doomsayer

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years. [/BR]

I'd love to see stats to back this up. I don't think it's true, and aside from scrapbooking, there are plenty of other hobbies one could cite as anecdotal examples that there's no overall decline.

[willy6]

i think it's growing. 5 years ago where i live in south carolina, there was only one hobby store that had trains and it was 40 miles away. now we have 5 and we've had 4 train shows since. and in the last year i have gotten 4 people interested in the hobby after seeing my layout of the MINATURE WORLD WE CAN CREATE.

[brothaslide]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years. . .

I posted this on another thread but I thought it was an appropriate response to the above statement. . .

The scrapbook hobby group has us model railroad folks beat by a mile! My wife is a scrapbooker and that hobby is growing so much faster than model railroading. I think the big difference is that scrapbooking is more social and people in that hobby actively look to include others and make them feel welcome. Please don't take this as an insult but I think many of us model railroaders need to get out of our selves and stop being these introverted engineer types (I do have a BS in Mechanical Engineering - it takes one to know one.)

Additionally, scrapbooking online resources blow away any model railroad site in content and participation. Just visit www.twopeasinabucket.com and look at their message board posts or their image gallery.

The local scrapbook stores have what are called Friday Night Crops where a number of people get to gether to scrapbook. Additonally, these Friday night sessions include classes on technique and style. My LHS has never to my knowledge ever held a class or a group get together to build trains, etc.

I think it is time for an attitude change and a paradigim shift in our hobby.

Sean

[Anonymous]

I believe the hobby is growing, Thanks to people like kbfcsme and AntonioFP45 who are promoting the hobby with a positive attitude.
Here's whats happening in this area to promote the hobby. (hope the links work)

http://www.communitypapers.com/DAILYCOURIER/viewsearchresults.asp?infoid=112040939&moduleid=16955145

http://www.communitypapers.com/DAILYCOURIER/viewsearchresults.asp?infoid=112042100&moduleid=16955302

[vsmith]

I said declining, mostly because of all the other distractions out there that werent around back in the 60's 70's or even the 80's. Work pressures, family pressures, Internet, computer games, many different sports and other activities can keep kids and adults from even considering a hobby. Plus as parents no longer introduce thier kids to any hobbies, very few may discover them on thier own. This is true for hobbies across the board, not just model RRing, even RC is in decline and they are now beginning to offer RTR planes out there because people are either too busy (or too lazy) to build their own planes.

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by AntonioFP45

[:)]I have to say that I'm more optimistic. I'm in the "last baby boomer" category. Born in 63 which is the cut off year.

Look at it from this perspective: General Motors was at the top for years. I remember that most teens I hung with in the late 70s and early 80s wanted a Trans Am, a Z28 or a Grand Prix. Today I hear Hondas, Supras and 300ZXs. GMs popularity has shrunken considerably but it's not going away. It will likely never enjoy the status it once had but It will continue to innovate and survive. [^]

Model railroading is in a "GM" situation. Great innovations (precision motors, dcc/sound, code 83 track, etc). Video and computer games are dominating kids attentions but there will always be railfans and modelers among them. Teens play Microsoft Train Sim, attend GATS and other train shows here in Florida, and visit LHS's so there is a future! I've criticized RTR in the past, but I see the benefits now. As for prices, they are of concern, but there are swap meets and internet dealers.

[8D][4:-)][C=:-)][C):-)]WE AS A WHOLE need to positively encourage the hobby as kbfcsme has so well demonstrated![tup] As a vocational/technical high school teacher, I "slide" railroading into my lessons whenever I can! My students were surprised to learn of the sheer size of CSX's system or the complexity of a modern diesel. I also have rail related screen savers on my computer where the public can see it! I'm going to be bringing in some of my older model railroader issues and let interested kids take them!

[#welcome] Those of you involved in Church, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Rotary Clubs, school, etc, can promote the hobby also by offering an "air brush demo", weathering demo, show off models, build a diaroma, or bring in a detailed module. Kids will flock to these things on sight! Many kids today don't know what the term "scale" means. Great opportunities do exist! If you are a modeler you are automatically creative! Don't talk it, do it!

[C):-)] Stay positive Amigos!
God Bless!

Well said, Antonio![bow]

[Anonymous]

Hmmm...I voted that it's stable...but I also hope that it's growing. The more supporters of the hobby the better.[8D]

[IRONROOSTER]

All the above are good points. One not mentioned is the lack of trains in the toy stores. Most toy stores carry one or two train sets (some have none) and their model airplane/ships etc section is sparser than it used to be. This prevents that early exposure to models and trains that so many of us older folks had as kids. Couple that with the new stuff - video games, etc - competing for attention and it's not hard to see that fewer people get the exposure as kids.

Add to that the decline in hobby shops (at least in Northern VA) and adults have trouble finding out about the hobby.

Third people don't develop the mechanical skills as much anymore. When I was younger I used to fix up things around the house, repair my cars, etc. But as things get more complicated such as cars or cheaper such as toasters I fix less and replace more.

But even so, I think this hobby and related craft hobbies will survive. There is a desire that most of us have to be able to make things. As people are exposed to the craft hobbies I think the numbers will go up. As the baby boomers retire (and I'm on the leading edge) and have the time, I think we'll see an increase.

Enjoy
Paul

[Anonymous]

I'd say that the hobby is either stable or slightly growing. For example, take a look at Hornby - they floated on the stock market last year and have been performing amazingly well - surely a good sign? They also show consistent profits.

I'm not convinced by the argument about people today wanting instant gratification and as a result being unwilling to put in the time to produce a decent model. Look at the growth in the modified car scene and in the modified computer scene - both these require skills, patience, etc to achieve. I would argue assembling a computer from parts (as I and many of my friends have done a few times) takes a similar amount of time to building a train of Athearn freight cars. I suspect that it is more a case of needing to convince people that model trains are cool - the World's Greatest Hobby campaign is an excellent idea here, as are ROCO's cheap (ish) DCC starter sets (not sure if these are available in the States, over here you can buy one containing a German diesel loco, a couple of freight cars, an oval of track, and a basic DCC control unit for around £80-£90, have noticed a set that looks virtually identical but with a GP40 and three US freight cars advertised in MR this month). I would argue that DCC is the way to attract the "Playstation Generation" as it allows you to operate in a realistic manner without needing isolating sections, etc.

[AntonioFP45]

[:)]I have to say that I'm more optimistic. I'm in the "last baby boomer" category. Born in 63 which is the cut off year.

Look at it from this perspective: General Motors was at the top for years. I remember that most teens I hung with in the late 70s and early 80s wanted a Trans Am, a Z28 or a Grand Prix. Today I hear Hondas, Supras and 300ZXs. GMs popularity has shrunken considerably but it's not going away. It will likely never enjoy the status it once had but It will continue to innovate and survive. [^]

Model railroading is in a "GM" situation. Great innovations (precision motors, dcc/sound, code 83 track, etc). Video and computer games are dominating kids attentions but there will always be railfans and modelers among them. Teens play Microsoft Train Sim, attend GATS and other train shows here in Florida, and visit LHS's so there is a future! I've criticized RTR in the past, but I see the benefits now. As for prices, they are of concern, but there are swap meets and internet dealers.

[8D][4:-)][C=:-)][C):-)]WE AS A WHOLE need to positively encourage the hobby as kbfcsme has so well demonstrated![tup] As a vocational/technical high school teacher, I "slide" railroading into my lessons whenever I can! My students were surprised to learn of the sheer size of CSX's system or the complexity of a modern diesel. I also have rail related screen savers on my computer where the public can see it! I'm going to be bringing in some of my older model railroader issues and let interested kids take them!

[#welcome] Those of you involved in Church, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Rotary Clubs, school, etc, can promote the hobby also by offering an "air brush demo", weathering demo, show off models, build a diaroma, or bring in a detailed module. Kids will flock to these things on sight! Many kids today don't know what the term "scale" means. Great opportunities do exist! If you are a modeler you are automatically creative! Don't talk it, do it!

[C):-)] Stay positive Amigos!
God Bless!

[Anonymous]

I was not aware of the stats. Could this be a sympton of the Baby Boomer syndrome? If the trend is is showing a decline then it maybe a result of people having less time, money and energy and we are all becoming to reliant on our need for instant gratification.

[Anonymous]

I think the hobby is growing, thanks to orginazations like the TAMR. I've only been in the TAMR for half a year now and I have written two articles (with a third one on the way), and become head of the Northeast Region of the TAMR. It's a great orginazation, that's why I'm bragging about it.

[Anonymous]

I would have to say that the hobby is in a stable or growing state. Yes it is sad to see that the numbers of publications like model railroading are declining and have been for some time. However, there have been times recently I have wondered of Model Railroader is truely dealing with what is the reality of the hobby. I often read things in Model Railroader and often have to wonder who's crackpot idea that was becasue the statement makes little or no sense as to what is actually going on. As for older members dieing off as the population ages. That is true. But how many of our ranks are of the "Baby Boom" generation? Remember this is one of the largest single generations in American History. Its effects are still being studied and analized in All quarters. It is only natural that what ever our members in this catagory do. Its going to be felt across the Model Railroad spectrum. As for new members, fear not. I know several people my age and younger that are both railfans and model railroaders. While Model Steam engines may one day head the way of their full size conterparts, the hobby in one form or fashion will continue on. Us in our teens and Twenties may not be as numborous as the baby boomers. But we are here and we are modeling. I may be the rarity as I have developed my modeling skills to the point that craftsman kits and cratchbuilding are the only frontiers left for true modeling development at this point in my modeling career. (Thanks to starting at the age of 4 and not looking back since) I may be the caretaker of what will one day be "Dead" skills. Also railraods are beginning to make a comeback. For the last several years I have seen Train-sets boasting bachmann Spectrum locomotives in stores like Wal-mart and Target. Microsoft Train Simulater is available at like locations as well as a very reasonable price. Exposing trains and railroading to a braod public audiance. Massive amounts of money is being spent on Research and development is being spent on new products. Some of which being done through the pages of model railroader. (Remember it was only 9 months since Model Railroader Published its Passenger Train survey that Walthers announced its series of Budd and then Pullman Standard passenger cars) I feel confident that while the number of model railroaders will shrink with the departure of the baby boom generation from the hobby. It will still be here well into the next century.

[METRO]

As someone who is younger, still in his 20s, I can say where I got my start and why kids today may not have it as good as I did growing up:

I loved trains since I first saw em (so I have been told) my grandparents lived just a few blocks from the old Water Level Route, my grandpa worked at ALCO once upon a time, and from the guest room I could look out the window and see the big main line every Christmas when we went up to NY to see em. Seccondly, growing up in Milwaukee, my school took yearly trips to the Museum Of Sience and Industry in Chicago, and while my classmates were busy taking tours of the U-Boat or in the airliner I was watching the old O scale Santa Fe layout for hours. Third, my girlfirend loves trains too, and she takes em every chance she gets.

So here we have me, a dedicated model railroader raised and encouraged, and then there is my little brother who is now in high school: He hardly knew his grandpa, and dosen't remember his stories or walking down the tracks with him when he was little. He goes to a suburban school and has never been to the great layout of Chicago, as parents get nervous about sending their kids into the city even with teachers. And of course lastly I doubt that there are many high school girls who are very interested in trains period, I was just lucky in that regard.

It may be from lack of exposure to how amazing trains are, or it may be from changing culture, but I am afraid that the hobby, along with many others will die with my generation.

Something interesting though, my girlfriend is in the fashion industry, and the distraction of choice at her office, as well as being listed as one of the guilty pleasures of the fashion world in the New York Times a while back, is Railroad Tycoon, the computer game. Just goes to show, no one knows what the future will hold.

[Roadtrp]

I guess I'm just a "glass half-full" kind of guy. I also admit that I am a total rookie at MR, so I have no history for perspective. But I have to think MR has a good chance to grow in the future.

There is a very major nostalgia boom right now, and MR would have to profit from that. All of the RTR and built-up stuff also make it possible for people, especially young people with little time, to get involved in MR. Sure, they won't be doing it the way of the "purists". But frankly, I think it is some of the preaching from the "purists" that drive people away from the hobby. After all, the number one thing is having fun and some people just like trains!!

I don't for a second believe that expense is driving anyone away. Kids today have more disposable income than ever. All you need to do is look at the average teens collection of CD's, DVD's, and electronic games and you will know that kids today have far more money to spend that kids 30 years ago. We just have to give them a reason to be interested.

And crabbing about how no one likes to scratch-build anymore and how internet forum stars are a pain isn't going to do it.

[CNJ831]

There is no question about where the hobby is headed and it is not toward stability - it is definitely in decline. Anyone who cares to actually examine the statistics associated with it will realize this in very short order. Do the research yourself and you'll be shocked. Only the very naive or newcomers to the hobby fail to appreciate the current situation.

In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years. Likewise, all of our established model railroading magazines have lost a minimum of 20% circulation over the past decade. During the 1950's an MR editorial indicated that model railroading was officially ranked as the second most popular hobby in the U.S.A. Where do you think it ranks today? Currently the median age of NMRA's membership is very close to 60 years of age. MR stopped listing the average age of its readership in conjunction with their published 5 year survey's when the figure passed 50 more than a decade ago (it was in the early to mid 30's throughout the 1950's, 60's and 70's). Whereas for decades runs of model railroad locomotives/kits were counted in the multi-thousands, today a given road name and number may be done in just a few hundreds of units. In addition, the rapidly rising prices of RTR equipment is steadily reducing the ranks of newcomers and retirees. Finally, the WGH program was initiated because the manufactures acknowledged the hobby was seriously losing ground and something needed to be done before they had no viable market. Just how effective this plan has been is highly debatable.

CNJ831