Poll #1 Hobby Stability

[Anonymous]

Having read so many pro and con comments, both here and in the magazines, our hobby may or may not be in serious trouble. So I figured maybe with these 3 polls, we could shed a little light on the subject and really see if our hobby is stable, growing or in decline. Here's how it works. Answer poll #1 then Poll #2, and finally poll #3. After a week or so, I'll compile the results and publish on here. Ready, great. Please proceed.

[AggroJones]

I believe it balances out. Take a train to work day and the WGH campaign spread the idea of modelrailroading to more and more people, so that helps bring in fresh blood. But prices are going up and up, which is discouraging to us with less money.

[RhB_HJ]

As I mentioned elsewhere, I've been in the hobby 51 years and counting. If it isn't stable then I must be used to a topsy-turfy world.[;)][}:)][:D]
Yep, that's probably it![:o)][:I][:o)][:o)]

[Anonymous]

I've only seen growth in both people's interest and the availibility of a wide range of products.

Warren

[Anonymous]

I bought the 2004 walthers catalogue yesterday and was suprised at the changes that have taken place since the last time i bought it in 1998.

The hobby is definately growing![:)]

[Anonymous]

Hate to say it but we are running out of people. People are passing away and the younger kids arent getting in to the hobby becuase of 15 dollars for a flat car. or the kits are to advanced for everyone.

[Anonymous]

Don't BS yourselves. The hobby is slowly but surely in decline. [V]Like all hobbies, they are being supplanted by video games, the internet and the fact that we are as a nation,all getting older and dying off. Not to mention the bad PR rep that the railroads in general have. Our grandfathers all wanted to be engineers as kids, because railroads were a part of everyones everyday life. Nowadays, most kids don't see railroads unless there is a big wreck on CNN.
Also, society in general wants instant gratification. Kits take to long to build, layouts take longer. Look at the hobby shops that have vanished, as well as falling magazine sales.
Is there hope?
Of course there is![:D] The quality of the hobby is improving by leaps and bounds. DCC, digital sound, improved scenery materials ( no more lichen![:D]) all bring a depth of realism that has never been available. Structure kits have never been so diverse.
The biggest problem we have is Image. We are still, to a large degree, viewed as big boys that play with little trains. The WGH program is trying to combat this, but it will take a much larger force to show the world what the hobby has become. Its up to you, me, and the whole Hee-Haw gang to talk up the hobby, show "outsiders" all of the facets of the hobby. It's not just trains, but woodworking (benchwork), electronics(DC or DCC, signaling and such) sculpture, geology, botony (scenery) and the whole visual package is, dare I say it, art. [:0]
So, what am I doing? In addition to exhibiting my part of a modular layout at shows with my club. I sometimes keep a train on my desk at work. I also have a PC that is behind me and faces my desk, so people meeting with me can see the screen. It has a train screensaver on it! It's a great icebreaker when folks remark,"well thats a pretty picture, where was it taken?" and I reply,"In my basement". Plus I talk up the hobby whenever I can. People who know me, know I am a model railroader!
Here's a thought. If we each could get 1 person a year to join the hobby, we wouldn't have to post surveys like this any more!![:D][:p][8D][;)][4:-)][:D][:p][8D][;)]

[Anonymous]

I remember when I was growing up in a middle class neighborhood I was one of a very small group who were into the hobby. This is a hobby for the older generation for the following reasons.

1) This takes time; most kids want instant gratification more so then ever.
2) With school, sports and other extra curricular activity kids just don't have the time.
3) Adults, more so now than ever do not have the time to invest in Johnny's lay out.
4) This is a very expensive hobby, which requires a certain amount of skill if you're going to enjoy it. I'll regret saying this one but it's true. How many people play ice hockey and don't skate?
5) This hobby takes up space, something not everyone can afford or is willing to give up.
And finally
6) Back to the kid’s perspective. Watching a train go around in circles is boring. Unless they can cope with 1 through 5 they will loose interest before they start.
This is, I believe, a hobby that will never appeal to the masses but rather to a select few with certain eclectic tastes.

[CNJ831]

There is no question about where the hobby is headed and it is not toward stability - it is definitely in decline. Anyone who cares to actually examine the statistics associated with it will realize this in very short order. Do the research yourself and you'll be shocked. Only the very naive or newcomers to the hobby fail to appreciate the current situation.

In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years. Likewise, all of our established model railroading magazines have lost a minimum of 20% circulation over the past decade. During the 1950's an MR editorial indicated that model railroading was officially ranked as the second most popular hobby in the U.S.A. Where do you think it ranks today? Currently the median age of NMRA's membership is very close to 60 years of age. MR stopped listing the average age of its readership in conjunction with their published 5 year survey's when the figure passed 50 more than a decade ago (it was in the early to mid 30's throughout the 1950's, 60's and 70's). Whereas for decades runs of model railroad locomotives/kits were counted in the multi-thousands, today a given road name and number may be done in just a few hundreds of units. In addition, the rapidly rising prices of RTR equipment is steadily reducing the ranks of newcomers and retirees. Finally, the WGH program was initiated because the manufactures acknowledged the hobby was seriously losing ground and something needed to be done before they had no viable market. Just how effective this plan has been is highly debatable.

CNJ831

[Roadtrp]

I guess I'm just a "glass half-full" kind of guy. I also admit that I am a total rookie at MR, so I have no history for perspective. But I have to think MR has a good chance to grow in the future.

There is a very major nostalgia boom right now, and MR would have to profit from that. All of the RTR and built-up stuff also make it possible for people, especially young people with little time, to get involved in MR. Sure, they won't be doing it the way of the "purists". But frankly, I think it is some of the preaching from the "purists" that drive people away from the hobby. After all, the number one thing is having fun and some people just like trains!!

I don't for a second believe that expense is driving anyone away. Kids today have more disposable income than ever. All you need to do is look at the average teens collection of CD's, DVD's, and electronic games and you will know that kids today have far more money to spend that kids 30 years ago. We just have to give them a reason to be interested.

And crabbing about how no one likes to scratch-build anymore and how internet forum stars are a pain isn't going to do it.

[METRO]

As someone who is younger, still in his 20s, I can say where I got my start and why kids today may not have it as good as I did growing up:

I loved trains since I first saw em (so I have been told) my grandparents lived just a few blocks from the old Water Level Route, my grandpa worked at ALCO once upon a time, and from the guest room I could look out the window and see the big main line every Christmas when we went up to NY to see em. Seccondly, growing up in Milwaukee, my school took yearly trips to the Museum Of Sience and Industry in Chicago, and while my classmates were busy taking tours of the U-Boat or in the airliner I was watching the old O scale Santa Fe layout for hours. Third, my girlfirend loves trains too, and she takes em every chance she gets.

So here we have me, a dedicated model railroader raised and encouraged, and then there is my little brother who is now in high school: He hardly knew his grandpa, and dosen't remember his stories or walking down the tracks with him when he was little. He goes to a suburban school and has never been to the great layout of Chicago, as parents get nervous about sending their kids into the city even with teachers. And of course lastly I doubt that there are many high school girls who are very interested in trains period, I was just lucky in that regard.

It may be from lack of exposure to how amazing trains are, or it may be from changing culture, but I am afraid that the hobby, along with many others will die with my generation.

Something interesting though, my girlfriend is in the fashion industry, and the distraction of choice at her office, as well as being listed as one of the guilty pleasures of the fashion world in the New York Times a while back, is Railroad Tycoon, the computer game. Just goes to show, no one knows what the future will hold.

[Anonymous]

I would have to say that the hobby is in a stable or growing state. Yes it is sad to see that the numbers of publications like model railroading are declining and have been for some time. However, there have been times recently I have wondered of Model Railroader is truely dealing with what is the reality of the hobby. I often read things in Model Railroader and often have to wonder who's crackpot idea that was becasue the statement makes little or no sense as to what is actually going on. As for older members dieing off as the population ages. That is true. But how many of our ranks are of the "Baby Boom" generation? Remember this is one of the largest single generations in American History. Its effects are still being studied and analized in All quarters. It is only natural that what ever our members in this catagory do. Its going to be felt across the Model Railroad spectrum. As for new members, fear not. I know several people my age and younger that are both railfans and model railroaders. While Model Steam engines may one day head the way of their full size conterparts, the hobby in one form or fashion will continue on. Us in our teens and Twenties may not be as numborous as the baby boomers. But we are here and we are modeling. I may be the rarity as I have developed my modeling skills to the point that craftsman kits and cratchbuilding are the only frontiers left for true modeling development at this point in my modeling career. (Thanks to starting at the age of 4 and not looking back since) I may be the caretaker of what will one day be "Dead" skills. Also railraods are beginning to make a comeback. For the last several years I have seen Train-sets boasting bachmann Spectrum locomotives in stores like Wal-mart and Target. Microsoft Train Simulater is available at like locations as well as a very reasonable price. Exposing trains and railroading to a braod public audiance. Massive amounts of money is being spent on Research and development is being spent on new products. Some of which being done through the pages of model railroader. (Remember it was only 9 months since Model Railroader Published its Passenger Train survey that Walthers announced its series of Budd and then Pullman Standard passenger cars) I feel confident that while the number of model railroaders will shrink with the departure of the baby boom generation from the hobby. It will still be here well into the next century.

[Anonymous]

I think the hobby is growing, thanks to orginazations like the TAMR. I've only been in the TAMR for half a year now and I have written two articles (with a third one on the way), and become head of the Northeast Region of the TAMR. It's a great orginazation, that's why I'm bragging about it.

[Anonymous]

I was not aware of the stats. Could this be a sympton of the Baby Boomer syndrome? If the trend is is showing a decline then it maybe a result of people having less time, money and energy and we are all becoming to reliant on our need for instant gratification.

[AntonioFP45]

[:)]I have to say that I'm more optimistic. I'm in the "last baby boomer" category. Born in 63 which is the cut off year.

Look at it from this perspective: General Motors was at the top for years. I remember that most teens I hung with in the late 70s and early 80s wanted a Trans Am, a Z28 or a Grand Prix. Today I hear Hondas, Supras and 300ZXs. GMs popularity has shrunken considerably but it's not going away. It will likely never enjoy the status it once had but It will continue to innovate and survive. [^]

Model railroading is in a "GM" situation. Great innovations (precision motors, dcc/sound, code 83 track, etc). Video and computer games are dominating kids attentions but there will always be railfans and modelers among them. Teens play Microsoft Train Sim, attend GATS and other train shows here in Florida, and visit LHS's so there is a future! I've criticized RTR in the past, but I see the benefits now. As for prices, they are of concern, but there are swap meets and internet dealers.

[8D][4:-)][C=:-)][C):-)]WE AS A WHOLE need to positively encourage the hobby as kbfcsme has so well demonstrated![tup] As a vocational/technical high school teacher, I "slide" railroading into my lessons whenever I can! My students were surprised to learn of the sheer size of CSX's system or the complexity of a modern diesel. I also have rail related screen savers on my computer where the public can see it! I'm going to be bringing in some of my older model railroader issues and let interested kids take them!

[#welcome] Those of you involved in Church, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Rotary Clubs, school, etc, can promote the hobby also by offering an "air brush demo", weathering demo, show off models, build a diaroma, or bring in a detailed module. Kids will flock to these things on sight! Many kids today don't know what the term "scale" means. Great opportunities do exist! If you are a modeler you are automatically creative! Don't talk it, do it!

[C):-)] Stay positive Amigos!
God Bless!

[Anonymous]

I'd say that the hobby is either stable or slightly growing. For example, take a look at Hornby - they floated on the stock market last year and have been performing amazingly well - surely a good sign? They also show consistent profits.

I'm not convinced by the argument about people today wanting instant gratification and as a result being unwilling to put in the time to produce a decent model. Look at the growth in the modified car scene and in the modified computer scene - both these require skills, patience, etc to achieve. I would argue assembling a computer from parts (as I and many of my friends have done a few times) takes a similar amount of time to building a train of Athearn freight cars. I suspect that it is more a case of needing to convince people that model trains are cool - the World's Greatest Hobby campaign is an excellent idea here, as are ROCO's cheap (ish) DCC starter sets (not sure if these are available in the States, over here you can buy one containing a German diesel loco, a couple of freight cars, an oval of track, and a basic DCC control unit for around £80-£90, have noticed a set that looks virtually identical but with a GP40 and three US freight cars advertised in MR this month). I would argue that DCC is the way to attract the "Playstation Generation" as it allows you to operate in a realistic manner without needing isolating sections, etc.

[IRONROOSTER]

All the above are good points. One not mentioned is the lack of trains in the toy stores. Most toy stores carry one or two train sets (some have none) and their model airplane/ships etc section is sparser than it used to be. This prevents that early exposure to models and trains that so many of us older folks had as kids. Couple that with the new stuff - video games, etc - competing for attention and it's not hard to see that fewer people get the exposure as kids.

Add to that the decline in hobby shops (at least in Northern VA) and adults have trouble finding out about the hobby.

Third people don't develop the mechanical skills as much anymore. When I was younger I used to fix up things around the house, repair my cars, etc. But as things get more complicated such as cars or cheaper such as toasters I fix less and replace more.

But even so, I think this hobby and related craft hobbies will survive. There is a desire that most of us have to be able to make things. As people are exposed to the craft hobbies I think the numbers will go up. As the baby boomers retire (and I'm on the leading edge) and have the time, I think we'll see an increase.

Enjoy
Paul

[Anonymous]

Hmmm...I voted that it's stable...but I also hope that it's growing. The more supporters of the hobby the better.[8D]

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by AntonioFP45

[:)]I have to say that I'm more optimistic. I'm in the "last baby boomer" category. Born in 63 which is the cut off year.

Look at it from this perspective: General Motors was at the top for years. I remember that most teens I hung with in the late 70s and early 80s wanted a Trans Am, a Z28 or a Grand Prix. Today I hear Hondas, Supras and 300ZXs. GMs popularity has shrunken considerably but it's not going away. It will likely never enjoy the status it once had but It will continue to innovate and survive. [^]

Model railroading is in a "GM" situation. Great innovations (precision motors, dcc/sound, code 83 track, etc). Video and computer games are dominating kids attentions but there will always be railfans and modelers among them. Teens play Microsoft Train Sim, attend GATS and other train shows here in Florida, and visit LHS's so there is a future! I've criticized RTR in the past, but I see the benefits now. As for prices, they are of concern, but there are swap meets and internet dealers.

[8D][4:-)][C=:-)][C):-)]WE AS A WHOLE need to positively encourage the hobby as kbfcsme has so well demonstrated![tup] As a vocational/technical high school teacher, I "slide" railroading into my lessons whenever I can! My students were surprised to learn of the sheer size of CSX's system or the complexity of a modern diesel. I also have rail related screen savers on my computer where the public can see it! I'm going to be bringing in some of my older model railroader issues and let interested kids take them!

[#welcome] Those of you involved in Church, Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts, Rotary Clubs, school, etc, can promote the hobby also by offering an "air brush demo", weathering demo, show off models, build a diaroma, or bring in a detailed module. Kids will flock to these things on sight! Many kids today don't know what the term "scale" means. Great opportunities do exist! If you are a modeler you are automatically creative! Don't talk it, do it!

[C):-)] Stay positive Amigos!
God Bless!

Well said, Antonio![bow]

[vsmith]

I said declining, mostly because of all the other distractions out there that werent around back in the 60's 70's or even the 80's. Work pressures, family pressures, Internet, computer games, many different sports and other activities can keep kids and adults from even considering a hobby. Plus as parents no longer introduce thier kids to any hobbies, very few may discover them on thier own. This is true for hobbies across the board, not just model RRing, even RC is in decline and they are now beginning to offer RTR planes out there because people are either too busy (or too lazy) to build their own planes.

[Anonymous]

I believe the hobby is growing, Thanks to people like kbfcsme and AntonioFP45 who are promoting the hobby with a positive attitude.
Here's whats happening in this area to promote the hobby. (hope the links work)

http://www.communitypapers.com/DAILYCOURIER/viewsearchresults.asp?infoid=112040939&moduleid=16955145

http://www.communitypapers.com/DAILYCOURIER/viewsearchresults.asp?infoid=112042100&moduleid=16955302

[brothaslide]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years. . .

I posted this on another thread but I thought it was an appropriate response to the above statement. . .

The scrapbook hobby group has us model railroad folks beat by a mile! My wife is a scrapbooker and that hobby is growing so much faster than model railroading. I think the big difference is that scrapbooking is more social and people in that hobby actively look to include others and make them feel welcome. Please don't take this as an insult but I think many of us model railroaders need to get out of our selves and stop being these introverted engineer types (I do have a BS in Mechanical Engineering - it takes one to know one.)

Additionally, scrapbooking online resources blow away any model railroad site in content and participation. Just visit www.twopeasinabucket.com and look at their message board posts or their image gallery.

The local scrapbook stores have what are called Friday Night Crops where a number of people get to gether to scrapbook. Additonally, these Friday night sessions include classes on technique and style. My LHS has never to my knowledge ever held a class or a group get together to build trains, etc.

I think it is time for an attitude change and a paradigim shift in our hobby.

Sean

[willy6]

i think it's growing. 5 years ago where i live in south carolina, there was only one hobby store that had trains and it was 40 miles away. now we have 5 and we've had 4 train shows since. and in the last year i have gotten 4 people interested in the hobby after seeing my layout of the MINATURE WORLD WE CAN CREATE.

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years. [/BR]

I'd love to see stats to back this up. I don't think it's true, and aside from scrapbooking, there are plenty of other hobbies one could cite as anecdotal examples that there's no overall decline.

[dragenrider]

If we are not in decline as a hobby, then why are so many hobby shops closing and small manufactors disappearing? [sigh]

I think we are headed downhill. The hobby as it is today will all but vanish with the sunset of this generation.

So quoteth the doomsayer

[Roadtrp]

I don't think the hobby is on the way out.

I do think the Local Hobby Shop is on the way out.

Just as Circuit City and Best Buy killed the neighborhood appliance guy, the big hobby chains and especially the Internet will kill the LHS.

But did the market for refrigerators or TV's or washing machines die? No, but the places where we bought them changed. In the future we will buy from a big hobby chain where people know nothing about MR, or we will buy from the Internet. In the future we won't be able to rely on the knowledge of the LHS owner, but forums like this will become even more valuable than they are now.

It will be sad to see the day of the LHS pass. But at the same time, the Internet will provide better advice and lower prices than the LHS ever did. So are we who are involved in the hobby winners or losers?

I have to say we will be the winners.

[Anonymous]

Are we talking about the stability of the model railroad industry or the stability of model railroading as a hobby?
If the hobby industry does a crash and burn, I'll still be a model railroader. How about you?

[CNJ831]

ACLfan posts-

CNJ Quote:
"In the United States, all hobbies are declining and have been for years."

ACL Quote:
I'd love to see stats to back this up. I don't think it's true...

I direct you to material published over the past few years by HIA and articles appearing in the NY Times. Each indicated that while "Martha Stewart-type" craft interests are on the increase amongst women, traditional male-oriented hobbies are in decline. Lack of time being the most often cited reason.

Along this same line, I note that all the positive responses posted here have been totally lacking in any statistical backing whatever. While we may all wish (and I most definitely include myself) that our hobby was thriving, these views are little more than individual wishful thinking. Does anyone honestly have stats to demonstrate the contrary?

CNJ831

[Roadtrp]

From the World's Greatest Hobby site:

"There has been a surge of interest in model railroading in recent years, and as an industry we want to help build that momentum," explained Terry Thompson, editor of Model Railroader magazine. "With Baby Boomers enjoying more leisure time and discretionary income, they are looking for creative and satisfying pastimes. For many of them, model railroading is the ideal hobby-evoking the toys of their youth while offering them a challenge in the process."

[:)]

[Anonymous]

I believe the hobby is at a major crossroad. Still plenty of people interested and participating, we all seem to have more disposable income than years ago. The availability of kits and RTR seems to be at an alltime high, and the quality of kits has improved greatly. Without a program like WGH, the hobby would decline as those of us in the hobby die off. It will take a continuing infusion of new people to keep the hobby where it is today or to perpetrate growth. Hats off to WGH. I believe as the word gets out and more of us become willing to share the hobby with others that continuing growth will occur. With the growth will come yet better kits and a broader selection of other related materials.
I agree that many of the model railroading magazines have disappeared, but I do not feel this is due to any decline in the hobby. I have long wondered just how many magazines the hobby could support. I believe the current decline is just a natural retrenchment. The magazines that best serve the market grow, others do not. I do believe the hobby is currently stable, but the future depends on programs like WGH to assure survival;

Tom