World weather patterns

[FJ and G]

Ian,

A few people care about global warming but it's way down the list of most folks' concerns. You'll never take away people's large SUVs and Hummers and besides, not many care if a few Pacific Islands go under water. It's something for our grandkids to deal with.

[Anonymous]

I really think that things are changing and I do not know the real reason; I am not a scientist. However the problems or explamations mentioned regarding what is happening in Australia regarding skin cancer do not comvince me at all, something has changed. I have been the skipper of a coastal yacht and blokes i have known for years, who have lived just about all their lives on the water in a particular area are reporting skin cancer at an unprecedented rate. I can tell you after they have had their various operations, they all look like they have gone several rounds with a tiger and lost.

So really unless you come from the southern hemisphere or are familiar with the situation down here, i would suggest that you may not properly appreciate it.

Now we have seen the hottest summer on record just past, the highest waves ever seen in 150 years, the coldest day last August and now we are being ravaged by a cyclone that has acted in a different way to all prrevious cyclones and its name is Larry and it is being followed up by another one named in Fiji called "Wati". This is unheard of and the devestation iss unprecented.

We have been in drought for 7 years longer than ever before and other places are in flood quite nearby.

I personally believe that this countries weather has changed and many people on the land who hve been around for about 80 years think so as well.


Regsrds Ian


PS. Thannks all of you for your emails of concern but although the problems with the cyclones are in this state of Queensland they are about 1000 km away, so as such are not causring us any problem at all.

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by TheRockModeler



On to less serious issues, RhB_HJ, remeber not too much potassium, but that should help. Although I still envy your "ability" to get such cramps from skiing [;)]

Hi Eric,

Still on the less serious issues; 20 odd years ago when I was dabbling in triathlons (short distances only!) I managed on occasion to flip-turn off the pool wall during training and get a super cramp in one or the other calf. The coach usually told me "Time to loosen up, my friend!" [:D][}:)][:D][:D][:D]

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Well, I have told you what I think on the subject, and I haven't heard anything on here to make me think otherwise; So I'll not be adding any more.

Remember the old adage "He convinced against his will is of the same opinion still!"

[tangerine-jack]

I say if you don't like the weather, then move to another planet.

CFC's are heavier than air and do not float up into the upper atmosphere, but they do destroy ozone in a careful controlled laboratory environment. Lightning (electricity)creates ozone naturaly from the O2 in air and water vapor. You can do your part to help the Earth by dropping electrical appliances into buckets of water and make ozone at home if you really care.

[Chompers]

My Science Teacher says that right now we are in a Ice Age Cycle, and by looking at a graph of past weter condition( sea level marking on the rocks) we are curently cooler and the sea level is lower that that of the last inter glacial Period so we may be slow ly climbing out of it.

[Anonymous]

iandor, not do downplay, but remember there is other factors in the skin cancer issue, 1) people tan much more than they use to, 2) people wear more revealing clothing than in the past, 3)people live longer, because of modern medicine, making other causes of death go up (especially if not caught in time). These are as much to play if not more so than Ozone layer issues. Also there is not a hole, just a bad weaking of the ozone layer down there. Once again I state this not to downplay the issue, but for clarification purposes only.

On to less serious issues, RhB_HJ, remeber not too much potassium, but that should help. Although I still envy your "ability" to get such cramps from skiing [;)]

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by TheRockModeler

RhB_HJ, I agree with the irony -proof that there is more humor in the real world than what anyone could dream up..... Thats interesting how asthma/bronchitis got ya hooked, I hope ya dont have problems anymore.... I hope some of those "narow gauge" tracks are yours, I love skiing, but not much ablity to ski here in IA (no mountains here, but there are a few quote unquote skiing slopes here -laughable to the rest of the skiing world, but a short drive beats 12 hours to colorado, for a quick skiing fix)

Eric,

Yep, plenty of my tracks up on the mountain. Matter of fact on Saturday, we had our annual 30km Loppet. Absolutely gorgeous conditions, brilliant sunshine, fresh, but groomed powder - we got a foot of the stuff last Wednesday!! - it was just wonderful. The only fly in the ointment was a d*a*m*n hamstring cramp I got at 11km, but I toughed it out. Next year I'll add a potassium routine to the carbohydrate-loading. Grrrrrrrrrrr!!!

PS the PC correction provided the correct number of asteriks. [;)][8D][;)]

[Anonymous]

No what i am talking about is melanoma namely skin cancer. the rate has gone through the roof in Australia and the government agencies involved have issued many helpful statements and clothing to combat the situation. This is not a maybe this hole is surely there and it is surely killing Australians at an alarming rate.

Rds Ian

[Anonymous]

RhB_HJ, I agree with the irony -proof that there is more humor in the real world than what anyone could dream up..... Thats interesting how asthma/bronchitis got ya hooked, I hope ya dont have problems anymore.... I hope some of those "narow gauge" tracks are yours, I love skiing, but not much ablity to ski here in IA (no mountains here, but there are a few quote unquote skiing slopes here -laughable to the rest of the skiing world, but a short drive beats 12 hours to colorado, for a quick skiing fix)

[gvdobler]

iandor
My grandfather was a dyslexic agnostic with insomnia, he would sit up all night pondering the existence of his dog.

Anyway, I saw a special on PBS awhile ago about Vikings and how they were able to travel the way they did. The program stated that the earth heats up about every 500 years, which would have melted the ice to allow them to travel the routes they took. Now normally PBS would not miss a chance to blame the US and George Bush's family or his ancestors for anything bad that happens to the world, so maybe it just happens cyclic as said before.

When my grandfather died he was all dressed up with no where to go.[:D]

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by TheRockModeler

Just a note the only CFC's in the USA today, to my knoweldge, is a few different Asthma inhalers, with phase out in 2 years(some time in 2008) for the vast majority of the ones left (a few other inhalers, as I understand it, have a little longer till they can figure out an effective reformulation of their product). the only reason they have been left on the market this long is: price/so little CFC release/ availablity/ and some patients poor response to replacement products -basically caused by a relasionship between: drug release, particle size and inflamitory response.

Hi Eric,

That's kind of ironic, since a sizable percentage of today's asthma sufferers seem to have the greatest difficulties when the air pollution is higher than usual.

And as a random interjection: chronic bronchitis/borderline asthma is (more or less) responsible for my RhB addiction. As a kid I had the good fortune of being "shipped off" to the Grisons, more precisely the Engadine. Last stop before St.Moritz.
The Asthma home was located right beside the RhB line and even in 1952 it was a very fine spot to watch trains. 10 months of a regular RhB diet is very addictive.
The climate is very similar to what we have up on our XC skiing mountain, as is the elevation. And up on the mountain we also have "Narrow Gauge Tracks". [;)][:)][:D][;)]

[Anonymous]

Just a note the only CFC's in the USA today, to my knoweldge, is a few different Asthma inhalers, with phase out in 2 years(some time in 2008) for the vast majority of the ones left (a few other inhalers, as I understand it, have a little longer till they can figure out an effective reformulation of their product). the only reason they have been left on the market this long is: price/so little CFC release/ availablity/ and some patients poor response to replacement products -basically caused by a relasionship between: drug release, particle size and inflamitory response.

[vsmith]

Well even if the world goes to h*ll on a tobogan, at least a solar powered garden RR would be pretty easy to do. All Solar PV cells already generate electricity in DC, so all that would be necessary would be a couple car batteries to store generated electricity to hook up your powerpack to, and you could keep running you trains, even if you can't run your car.

PS elevation: 1000 feet

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Ian,
I'll still say cyclic. Delaware also has a higher than average cancer rate, but then again is is the home of DuPont, Hercules, Atlas, and a bunch of other chemical companies!

A nagging thought is how many people died of cancer before they had a name for it and it would have been classed as consumption, a miasma, or some like term? Just like so many diseases, there must have been a heap of people kicking off on a worldwide basis that displayed similar symptoms in order to get the researchers interested enough to discover what it was! Remember, at one time any skin rash or disease was lumped in as Leprosy! The Leper was cured cause somebody put some oil on dry skin, or a rash from some allergy went away!

Haven't you noted that as the third world countries become industrialized, the industrial countries become more service oriented? This simply means that the manufacturing (and all it carries with it like pollution and economic development) moves from place to place wherever the labor market is cheapest. The smog and junk just moves with it!
Look at the Europe, to N. America, to far East movement of the last 250 years!

Certainly some branch of your local or regional government can tell you your elevation. I can't imagine they operate that much differently down there than they do here! Our County Planning & Zoning office has maps that show it. So does the State Geologist's office! Even Federal offices have need of that info, and it is there for the asking! It just takes some prying to figure out whom to ask!

Thimk (spelling deliberate), there had to be some reason they called it a lake! Probably loads of evidence that it was a lake a zillion years ago! New Orleans turned back into a waterway under the proper conditions, so no reason why the Lake shouldn't!

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by markperr

I am absolutely amazed at the civility of discussion of this topic. Bravo to everyone.

Without trying to sound like I'm hijacking this topic, I'd like to piggy-back on what Capt. Bob said about children and grandchildren and say that I'm more fearful for their employment opportunities 30 years down the road than I am for their environmental concerns. I keep trying to look forward at opportunities that correspond to their desires and coax them in that direction. Planting the seeds early might help them in the long run.

Mark

To get the reference points regarding Large Scale in the garden:

a) will track oxydation accelerate ?

b) will we have enough water for hydro-electric generation?

c) will solar power be the "way to go"?

d) will there be enough materials to build all those solar panels?

e) will running trains in the garden be a big priority?

Do all of us know how to grow food under adverse conditions??

What happened the last time the power went out at your place?

[Anonymous]

I must say i am amazed at the knowledgable things that have been said here i did not think we had so many smart people on thisa forum and it is good to see. Being a practising agnostic i am as unconvinced about global worrming as i am about religion, but then again their is some very good theories around that i think we would be mad to ignore.

A few things that have got me concerned and being here in Asutralia i am viewing things from a sourthern hemisphere point of view.

1/ The hole over the south pole is nearby and and skin cancer is rampant in this country, is this a cyclic thing that no one would know about because hardly anyone lived here in the past.

2/ What if it is true and what do you think the emergence of India and more menacingly China will do. They are absolutle eating up Australian raw materials, I own shares in my last employer an instrumentailty of the Chinese governemt and i think i amm going to get a lot richer because of this but to what end if this is going to kill the world as we know it.

3/ I dont know how much where i live is above sea level but i can walk to the Coral Sea in twenty minutes and it is flat walk!

4/ rainfall in this country is increasing yet we have neen in drought for about seven years; the rainfall is moving north to largely unpopulated areas, Why?

5/ much of the interior of Australia is below sea level and when you look at the right sort of map you can see the chain of lakes etc through South Australia where an easy connection to the ocean will be a reality if the sea level rises much at all. If it fills up what will this do to our weather patterns and ultimatle the worlds? Not worried about people etc no one lives there. But this area is called Lake Ayer and many creatures and plants that were thought to have died out millions of years ago live there and what will this do to them?

I am not sure of what is happening if anything but i think the Sydney area from whence i cams is getting warmer say opver the last 40 years!


Rgds Ian

[tangerine-jack]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Railroading_Brit

I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned cheap air travel as a possible cause. The odd weather seems to have become more common of late, at around the same time as budget airlines have become popular. An airliner burns a lot more fuel than a car - most calculations suggest that one return flight across the Atlantic will produce more CO2 per passenger than the average car produces in a year. Funny how any suggestion of taxing aviation fuel is rebuffed while we pay 70% tax on road fuels...

There is some information that supports the air travel theory. When all air traffic was halted over the US during the days following September 11, 2001, the weather patterns, temperature etc, were clearly and directly impacted. Fewer clouds formed and the average temperature went down a few degrees. It is very interesting that everybody knows a contrail from a jet can cause clouds to form, that exhaust fumes are put directly into the upper atmoshpere, but nobody connected it to the weather???????????? Interesting, very interesting.......

I still say resource management is the way to go.

[kimbrit]

At the end of it all there won't be any winners or any loosers, the planet will be what it is at that moment in time. What will happen - I think - is that it will be like a war, where the victors write the history books, but in this case the population then will look back and mark off where stupidity, greed etc took over now and in the years to come. Many countries are signed up to reduce emmissions over the next 20 few years but more importantly many countries aren't, no nameing names here! It is something that we all have to do, we all have to drive economical or hybrid vehicles, we have to stop using CFC's, plant a tree for every one cut down etc etc.
In the mean time, I've taken a day off work, it's raining like you wouldn't believe and I can't get a train out. On the up side my new pond has arrived and will be dug out as time allows and the ground drains sufficiently for me to actually dig a hole. I've also got the central heating on so I guess that makes me an hipocrate.
Kim

[markperr]

I am absolutely amazed at the civility of discussion of this topic. Bravo to everyone.

Without trying to sound like I'm hijacking this topic, I'd like to piggy-back on what Capt. Bob said about children and grandchildren and say that I'm more fearful for their employment opportunities 30 years down the road than I am for their environmental concerns. I keep trying to look forward at opportunities that correspond to their desires and coax them in that direction. Planting the seeds early might help them in the long run.

Mark

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Cheeze, I thought China found out that the Spay-Neuter, put people in jail for having more than the allowance of children thing didn't work!

Here we are belching about overpopulation in one breath, yet still fighting over abortion rights with the next! Let those who think we are overpopulated do thier part and go get fixed before they reproduce!

This all started out with a theory about the apparent changes in weather, and how it effects our trains. I can't see where anything I, or a whole bunch of I's do is gonna make much of a change in things; so, I SAY IF IT AIN'T RAINING, OR ROASTING, OR FREEZING LET'S JUST GO PLAY WITH OUR TRAINS. It will be suitable weather tomorrow or the next day anyhow!

[Anonymous]

I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned cheap air travel as a possible cause. The odd weather seems to have become more common of late, at around the same time as budget airlines have become popular. An airliner burns a lot more fuel than a car - most calculations suggest that one return flight across the Atlantic will produce more CO2 per passenger than the average car produces in a year. Funny how any suggestion of taxing aviation fuel is rebuffed while we pay 70% tax on road fuels...

[kimbrit]

Ian has started an interesting topic here. I think the main thing is that if you mess with things on a planetary scale you will reap as you sow. To be fair to our great grandfathers they didn't know what they where doing when they pumped the waste from their factories into the atmosphere, the wake up calls started in the late 50's, early 60's and I can remember the smogs we used to get in the industrial towns, no daylight for three or four days, disgusting taste in your mouth just from breathing etc etc. In the UK this brought in laws on burning smokeless fuels and smog became a thing of the past but CO2 was still pumped into the atmosphere. It's not called the green house effect for nothing people, that CO2 has to go somewhere and if the majority of it concentrates in the higher atmosphere then the plants can't get at it to convert it into oxygen for us. I think basically, there's to many of us all breathing out CO2 - and methane from the other end! - too many gas guzzling cars and way too little control on CO2 emissions from industry, together with the fleuro carbons etc etc. It's a fact that the ice is going, in Antarctica it's only the sea ice at the moment but that land ice will follow and new seaside towns will be created.
Cheers,
Kim

[grandpopswalt]

Just finished an interesting book by Michael Crieghton, State of Fear. The point he’s making is that there isn’t enough accurate data to support the notion that CO2 is causing global warming, a good read. Presents some interesting facts that may cause you to reconsider some of your opinions if you’re in the CO2= global warming camp.

As with so many controversial debates raging today, there are volumes of data presented by both sides of the argument that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that THEY are right. So I guess you either fall in behind the guy you THINK may be right or you just stand on the sidelines and cheer for both sides. Right now I’m on the 50 yard line waving pom-poms from each team.

Our global energy demand is growing daily and fossil fuels seem to be the only viable source. When the oil runs out there’s a fair amount of coal around which could carry us for another 100 years or so. Potentially it’s more polluting than oil but it may give us enough time to develop other sources. I hope so because fusion is way over the horizon and nuclear is still a little scarey. Hydrogen apparently isn't everything it's cracked up to be. In the meantime hydro, wind, solar, and bio-mass collectively don't appear to have the potential to get the job done, and I don’t think we are ever going to get serious about conservation. So it appears that we have a very narrow window to resolve this and that that window could be very grimey and hot indeed.

I don’t think the issue is weather we will destroy the planet, we won’t. We may just destroy ourselves and the planet will recycle to it’s original pristine state. A new species will evolve and the cycle will start again. Who knows, maybe on the next go-around the new guys will be a little smarter than we are.

Walt

[Anonymous]

Qoute: I'm not going to lose any sleep over it!

I can only say BRAVO to that! I've heard so many confilicting opinions, so many changes in opinions from people who profess to know what's happening, that I've ended up where I don't believe "ANY" of them.
It seems that every day you hear about something else that is bad for you, and then the next day, it's good for you and visa-versa.
I've come to the conclusion that it's pure arrogance for people to think they know what's going to happen, or what's good or bad for you.

Remember "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". There's been too much wolf crying and Chicken Little "The sky is falling" hype and propaganda lately for me to believe what anyone tells me.

Here comes the wolf, and the sky is falling!!! Help me, help me, oh dear! What shall I do??

I think I 'll have the wolf go catch Chicken Little and the two of us will have a bar-be-que!!!

[RhB_HJ]

Hi all,

The Okanagan weather update:
Snow in the forecast for Wednesday for our XC skiing area, the Loppet goes on Saturday, just a bit of extra snow will be good. Makes for more "interesting" waxing.
BTW for those in those "mild" climates, [;)][}:)][;)] one can get CAT-skiis which work very well on the beach and just about any terrain.
With the one proviso - akin to Large Scale railroading, electrics, electronics etc. etc. - it helps immensely if one has some inkling how XC skiing works.[;)][8D][}:)][8D][;)]

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Tj,
A lot to what you say! A subject for argument from many aspects and sets of facts!

While I will do my bit to preserve things, I don't figure to be here but at most another 30 years; and I don't think the changes will be that drastic within that time frame.

Before the flamers come along, yes I have children and grandkids, and I'd like to have them live at least as well as I have; that's why I will do my bit, however, it's kinda like the weather, you'll take what you get and bloody well like it, so, why worry?

I'm not going to lose any sleep over it!

[Train 284]

Ya the wheather sucks here. Cold and wet. I hate, I would rather be out in our 105 summers! Honestly! [:D][:D]

[tangerine-jack]

Well Vic, I'm sure you were there to see it all happen..........[swg]

I agree with the consensus, we don't have enough information on long term global weather patterns to make a determination if the climate is 1. changing naturaly, 2. changing due to pollutants (natural and artificial) 3. changing at all, 4. going through a "cycle" or 5. terra-forming as a prelude to alien invasion.

We should, however, be concerned with pollution. Not so much for the health of the planet, but for our own health and quality of life. Serves no purpose to kill all the fish and then leave nothing for us to eat. I say cut down the tree, use it all wisely, then plant another one in it's place. Resource management is the key, not depriving the human race (which incidently is a part of the ecosystem as a predatory species) of the ability to survive and thrive.

I also went to an Uber-liberal university and I didn't see one, not one, protesting tree-hugger ride a horse to school, they all drove VW's or Beemers bought with Daddy's money. Last I checked, a VW runs on fossile fuel. I had somebody in a grossly oversized SUV shout me down for being an Earth killer because I was wearing leather. Strange.