World weather patterns

[Anonymous]

Normally you would not be intereted in weather as far as model railways are concerned, however we are out in the garden a lot and weather is important as others have opined.

We have seen you poor Americans get the hell knocked out of you by some terrible weather and when i was in Essex last year they were in the middle of a drought, and as everyone knows, England is infamous for its rain, so something might have changed.

We here in land of sunshine have recently just got through one of the hottest summers in 100 years. Last August we had the coldest day for 50 years, it got down to 12 Deg C. Right now we are experiencing incredible storms; with waves up 17 metres high coming in off the normally tranquil Coral Sea.

What do people think ,is global warming having an serious effect on the worlds weather or is this just a cyclic thing ?


Rgds Ian

[kimbrit]

Hi Ian,
I think it could well be a bit of both. The world does go through cycles in its weather, ice ages every 10,000ish years or so and I have read that it is unusual for the planet to have 2 ice caps so id the arctic melts it's sea ice anyway, but the antartic has a continent under its ice cap, so we would really feel that. All of the crap we have pumped into the atmosphere in the last (almost) couple of hundred years can't help, remember that every time we run a train a little bit more CO2 goes into the sky from a power station somewhere. I'm really going to go into the lions den here - we have to go nuke to boil the water to power the generators, our options are diappearing quickly.
Cheers,
Kim

[markperr]

It seems like every time I get into a discussion about global warming, I find myself in the contrarian viewpoint. However, I live in Ann Arbor, Mi. USA, and for those of you who aren't familiar with my geo-political location, I live in a very liberal town, near one of the most liberal universities in all of the US, the University of Michigan. That said, I offer only this opinion and a link. I think it is extremely arrogant of us as humans to think that we actually have the ability to destroy this planet. Anything that we do that may be detrimental to the Earth's environment will eventually lead to our own destruction as a species and the Earth would eventually heal itself sans humans.
Mt. Pinatubo, in the Phillipines, during it's last eruption sent more hydrocarbons into the air than all of mankind did during the industrial revolution of the preceding 100 years, and Mother Earth srcubbed the atmosphere clean in just under three years.
Weather guessers and environmentalists don't have enough historical data to make most of the claims that they make. The Earth is purported to be over four billion years old. She has survived asteroid collisions and mega volcanic eruptions. We are doing more today than ever before to be more environmentally conscious. There is an entire industry dedicated to reducing toxic emissions and they are going into the air at a far reduced rate than even thirty years ago. In my most humble opinion, this thing is cyclical.

I like this particular website. It looks at things from a scientific perspective with regards to global warming. Enjoy.

Mark

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/

[vsmith]

Its hard to say what the long term effects will be. Last winter we had 4x normal rain fall this year were under the norm.

Kims comment about the artic ice sheets is true. Remember Greenland got its name because when the Vikings found it, it was very very green with tundra grasses, no ice like in Iceland. it subsequently got colder and killed all the Viking settlers who lived there but stubbornly refused to change their lifestyle to match the changing climate ( is there an object lesson there? )

The real problem sea-level wise if if the Antarctic ice sheets go, we are in deep poo-poo coastal wise.

[kimbrit]

Quite right Vic, and being a coastal person I do take an interest in it. Mark is quite right when he calls us arogant, we are when we disregard the health of this planet so a relative few can make mega bucks now and have absolutely no cares at all for the people who will follow on. It's not us now, certainly not me at 54, but the kids I see every day will probably have big problems in 100 years or so, especially if some big land mass ice sheets start going, not exactly Costner's Water World but the 30% land we have will be shrinking. In a time to come the world may well celebrate when all of the fossel fuels have gone, cleaner air for all and the middle eastern gents will be back to owning sand, big empty spaces full of it!
Kim

[Capt Bob Johnson]

It is cyclical, how else would you explain the fossils of tropical prehistoric animals and birds that have been found in ice encrusted or once ice encrusted areas?

Don't want to get washed away, don't build in a New Orleans neighborhood that's 18 feet below sea level! I wouldn't even want to build within 10 feet above sea level. I'm just a couple of miles from the Oceanfront, yet my land is 27 feet above sea level! My thoughts are that they are throwing my good tax money after bad when they rebuild anything that is on land less than 10 feet above sea level. Bulldoze NO under and let it revert to the swamp it was just a short 300 years ago, The only reason it got settled in the first place was as a pirate's hideaway! Remember Jean LaFitte!

Anybody got asbestos suits for sale?

[vsmith]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Capt Bob Johnson

It is cyclical, how else would you explain the fossils of tropical prehistoric animals and birds that have been found in ice encrusted or once ice encrusted areas?

Actually Bob the fossils found in icey Antartica were alive when that continent was actually where where the Indian Ocean is now, when Pangea the supercontinent (all the landmasses had crumpled into each other about 400million years ago to make one big'un) broke up some 200 million years Africa, Asia Europe, Antarctica and India all drifted east While North and South America went west (it split at the mid-Atlantic ridge) While Africa was moving east Antarctica, Australia and India moved more southward, part of this land mss, India, overran the indian crustal plate moved north so fast that within only a few million years it crossed the indian ocean and slammed into Asia with so much force it created the Himilayas! Meanwhile Antarctica moved ever southward into colder latitudes, eventually down below the arctic circle, killing all life there. Eventually milions of years from now it will move back into warmer climates as it moves up into the pacific

OK geology lesson over ..Sorry if its a bit long but I do like the subject![:D]

The problem with sea level rise is that so many cities are in real danger of suffering seasonal or permanent flooding. The artic ice rests on the water so if it melts the sea level doesnt rise, however Antarctic ice is on continental crust, it melts and its adding water to the sea level raising them worldwide. Where in the US New Orleans, New York, most of Florida and long stretches of the Gulf and elsewhere in the US are at or near sea level and if the sea rises a couple feet will see tremendous changes, London is not very high above sea level and has had severe tidal floods in the past, at least it now has a barrier, but Venice in Italy could be devestated, Holland, Bangladesh?

All this extra water coupled with rising global temps puts more energy into the atmosphere creating much more violent weather. This years hurricanne season is predicted to be as bad as last years, I'm sure the Cyclone cycle in the Pacific has produced much more powerfull storms than in the past.

Luckily for us here in L.A. were too far north to worry about the Pacific hurricanes we get off the west coast of Mexico, but if the overall current sea temps of the arctic north pacific current rises, its anyones game how far north they can move.

[kstrong]

All I know - 18" of wet heavy snow in October which brought down two trees; virtually nothing in the way of precipitation in metro Denver since then, but the mountains are having record snowfalls (and windfalls from ski revenues!). Go figure. Today, 70°, and I've got the sprinkler going in the back yard trying to breathe life into what's left of the greenery on the railroad. I lost about half my plants thanks to the dry weather, winter dormancy notwithstanding. It'll be interesting to see what actually comes back this spring. Good thing I saved the receipts.

Later,

K

[tangerine-jack]

Well Vic, I'm sure you were there to see it all happen..........[swg]

I agree with the consensus, we don't have enough information on long term global weather patterns to make a determination if the climate is 1. changing naturaly, 2. changing due to pollutants (natural and artificial) 3. changing at all, 4. going through a "cycle" or 5. terra-forming as a prelude to alien invasion.

We should, however, be concerned with pollution. Not so much for the health of the planet, but for our own health and quality of life. Serves no purpose to kill all the fish and then leave nothing for us to eat. I say cut down the tree, use it all wisely, then plant another one in it's place. Resource management is the key, not depriving the human race (which incidently is a part of the ecosystem as a predatory species) of the ability to survive and thrive.

I also went to an Uber-liberal university and I didn't see one, not one, protesting tree-hugger ride a horse to school, they all drove VW's or Beemers bought with Daddy's money. Last I checked, a VW runs on fossile fuel. I had somebody in a grossly oversized SUV shout me down for being an Earth killer because I was wearing leather. Strange.

[Train 284]

Ya the wheather sucks here. Cold and wet. I hate, I would rather be out in our 105 summers! Honestly! [:D][:D]

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Tj,
A lot to what you say! A subject for argument from many aspects and sets of facts!

While I will do my bit to preserve things, I don't figure to be here but at most another 30 years; and I don't think the changes will be that drastic within that time frame.

Before the flamers come along, yes I have children and grandkids, and I'd like to have them live at least as well as I have; that's why I will do my bit, however, it's kinda like the weather, you'll take what you get and bloody well like it, so, why worry?

I'm not going to lose any sleep over it!

[RhB_HJ]

Hi all,

The Okanagan weather update:
Snow in the forecast for Wednesday for our XC skiing area, the Loppet goes on Saturday, just a bit of extra snow will be good. Makes for more "interesting" waxing.
BTW for those in those "mild" climates, [;)][}:)][;)] one can get CAT-skiis which work very well on the beach and just about any terrain.
With the one proviso - akin to Large Scale railroading, electrics, electronics etc. etc. - it helps immensely if one has some inkling how XC skiing works.[;)][8D][}:)][8D][;)]

[Anonymous]

Qoute: I'm not going to lose any sleep over it!

I can only say BRAVO to that! I've heard so many confilicting opinions, so many changes in opinions from people who profess to know what's happening, that I've ended up where I don't believe "ANY" of them.
It seems that every day you hear about something else that is bad for you, and then the next day, it's good for you and visa-versa.
I've come to the conclusion that it's pure arrogance for people to think they know what's going to happen, or what's good or bad for you.

Remember "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". There's been too much wolf crying and Chicken Little "The sky is falling" hype and propaganda lately for me to believe what anyone tells me.

Here comes the wolf, and the sky is falling!!! Help me, help me, oh dear! What shall I do??

I think I 'll have the wolf go catch Chicken Little and the two of us will have a bar-be-que!!!

[grandpopswalt]

Just finished an interesting book by Michael Crieghton, State of Fear. The point he’s making is that there isn’t enough accurate data to support the notion that CO2 is causing global warming, a good read. Presents some interesting facts that may cause you to reconsider some of your opinions if you’re in the CO2= global warming camp.

As with so many controversial debates raging today, there are volumes of data presented by both sides of the argument that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that THEY are right. So I guess you either fall in behind the guy you THINK may be right or you just stand on the sidelines and cheer for both sides. Right now I’m on the 50 yard line waving pom-poms from each team.

Our global energy demand is growing daily and fossil fuels seem to be the only viable source. When the oil runs out there’s a fair amount of coal around which could carry us for another 100 years or so. Potentially it’s more polluting than oil but it may give us enough time to develop other sources. I hope so because fusion is way over the horizon and nuclear is still a little scarey. Hydrogen apparently isn't everything it's cracked up to be. In the meantime hydro, wind, solar, and bio-mass collectively don't appear to have the potential to get the job done, and I don’t think we are ever going to get serious about conservation. So it appears that we have a very narrow window to resolve this and that that window could be very grimey and hot indeed.

I don’t think the issue is weather we will destroy the planet, we won’t. We may just destroy ourselves and the planet will recycle to it’s original pristine state. A new species will evolve and the cycle will start again. Who knows, maybe on the next go-around the new guys will be a little smarter than we are.

Walt

[kimbrit]

Ian has started an interesting topic here. I think the main thing is that if you mess with things on a planetary scale you will reap as you sow. To be fair to our great grandfathers they didn't know what they where doing when they pumped the waste from their factories into the atmosphere, the wake up calls started in the late 50's, early 60's and I can remember the smogs we used to get in the industrial towns, no daylight for three or four days, disgusting taste in your mouth just from breathing etc etc. In the UK this brought in laws on burning smokeless fuels and smog became a thing of the past but CO2 was still pumped into the atmosphere. It's not called the green house effect for nothing people, that CO2 has to go somewhere and if the majority of it concentrates in the higher atmosphere then the plants can't get at it to convert it into oxygen for us. I think basically, there's to many of us all breathing out CO2 - and methane from the other end! - too many gas guzzling cars and way too little control on CO2 emissions from industry, together with the fleuro carbons etc etc. It's a fact that the ice is going, in Antarctica it's only the sea ice at the moment but that land ice will follow and new seaside towns will be created.
Cheers,
Kim

[Anonymous]

I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned cheap air travel as a possible cause. The odd weather seems to have become more common of late, at around the same time as budget airlines have become popular. An airliner burns a lot more fuel than a car - most calculations suggest that one return flight across the Atlantic will produce more CO2 per passenger than the average car produces in a year. Funny how any suggestion of taxing aviation fuel is rebuffed while we pay 70% tax on road fuels...

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Cheeze, I thought China found out that the Spay-Neuter, put people in jail for having more than the allowance of children thing didn't work!

Here we are belching about overpopulation in one breath, yet still fighting over abortion rights with the next! Let those who think we are overpopulated do thier part and go get fixed before they reproduce!

This all started out with a theory about the apparent changes in weather, and how it effects our trains. I can't see where anything I, or a whole bunch of I's do is gonna make much of a change in things; so, I SAY IF IT AIN'T RAINING, OR ROASTING, OR FREEZING LET'S JUST GO PLAY WITH OUR TRAINS. It will be suitable weather tomorrow or the next day anyhow!

[markperr]

I am absolutely amazed at the civility of discussion of this topic. Bravo to everyone.

Without trying to sound like I'm hijacking this topic, I'd like to piggy-back on what Capt. Bob said about children and grandchildren and say that I'm more fearful for their employment opportunities 30 years down the road than I am for their environmental concerns. I keep trying to look forward at opportunities that correspond to their desires and coax them in that direction. Planting the seeds early might help them in the long run.

Mark

[kimbrit]

At the end of it all there won't be any winners or any loosers, the planet will be what it is at that moment in time. What will happen - I think - is that it will be like a war, where the victors write the history books, but in this case the population then will look back and mark off where stupidity, greed etc took over now and in the years to come. Many countries are signed up to reduce emmissions over the next 20 few years but more importantly many countries aren't, no nameing names here! It is something that we all have to do, we all have to drive economical or hybrid vehicles, we have to stop using CFC's, plant a tree for every one cut down etc etc.
In the mean time, I've taken a day off work, it's raining like you wouldn't believe and I can't get a train out. On the up side my new pond has arrived and will be dug out as time allows and the ground drains sufficiently for me to actually dig a hole. I've also got the central heating on so I guess that makes me an hipocrate.
Kim

[tangerine-jack]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Railroading_Brit

I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned cheap air travel as a possible cause. The odd weather seems to have become more common of late, at around the same time as budget airlines have become popular. An airliner burns a lot more fuel than a car - most calculations suggest that one return flight across the Atlantic will produce more CO2 per passenger than the average car produces in a year. Funny how any suggestion of taxing aviation fuel is rebuffed while we pay 70% tax on road fuels...

There is some information that supports the air travel theory. When all air traffic was halted over the US during the days following September 11, 2001, the weather patterns, temperature etc, were clearly and directly impacted. Fewer clouds formed and the average temperature went down a few degrees. It is very interesting that everybody knows a contrail from a jet can cause clouds to form, that exhaust fumes are put directly into the upper atmoshpere, but nobody connected it to the weather???????????? Interesting, very interesting.......

I still say resource management is the way to go.

[Anonymous]

I must say i am amazed at the knowledgable things that have been said here i did not think we had so many smart people on thisa forum and it is good to see. Being a practising agnostic i am as unconvinced about global worrming as i am about religion, but then again their is some very good theories around that i think we would be mad to ignore.

A few things that have got me concerned and being here in Asutralia i am viewing things from a sourthern hemisphere point of view.

1/ The hole over the south pole is nearby and and skin cancer is rampant in this country, is this a cyclic thing that no one would know about because hardly anyone lived here in the past.

2/ What if it is true and what do you think the emergence of India and more menacingly China will do. They are absolutle eating up Australian raw materials, I own shares in my last employer an instrumentailty of the Chinese governemt and i think i amm going to get a lot richer because of this but to what end if this is going to kill the world as we know it.

3/ I dont know how much where i live is above sea level but i can walk to the Coral Sea in twenty minutes and it is flat walk!

4/ rainfall in this country is increasing yet we have neen in drought for about seven years; the rainfall is moving north to largely unpopulated areas, Why?

5/ much of the interior of Australia is below sea level and when you look at the right sort of map you can see the chain of lakes etc through South Australia where an easy connection to the ocean will be a reality if the sea level rises much at all. If it fills up what will this do to our weather patterns and ultimatle the worlds? Not worried about people etc no one lives there. But this area is called Lake Ayer and many creatures and plants that were thought to have died out millions of years ago live there and what will this do to them?

I am not sure of what is happening if anything but i think the Sydney area from whence i cams is getting warmer say opver the last 40 years!


Rgds Ian

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by markperr

I am absolutely amazed at the civility of discussion of this topic. Bravo to everyone.

Without trying to sound like I'm hijacking this topic, I'd like to piggy-back on what Capt. Bob said about children and grandchildren and say that I'm more fearful for their employment opportunities 30 years down the road than I am for their environmental concerns. I keep trying to look forward at opportunities that correspond to their desires and coax them in that direction. Planting the seeds early might help them in the long run.

Mark

To get the reference points regarding Large Scale in the garden:

a) will track oxydation accelerate ?

b) will we have enough water for hydro-electric generation?

c) will solar power be the "way to go"?

d) will there be enough materials to build all those solar panels?

e) will running trains in the garden be a big priority?

Do all of us know how to grow food under adverse conditions??

What happened the last time the power went out at your place?

[Capt Bob Johnson]

Ian,
I'll still say cyclic. Delaware also has a higher than average cancer rate, but then again is is the home of DuPont, Hercules, Atlas, and a bunch of other chemical companies!

A nagging thought is how many people died of cancer before they had a name for it and it would have been classed as consumption, a miasma, or some like term? Just like so many diseases, there must have been a heap of people kicking off on a worldwide basis that displayed similar symptoms in order to get the researchers interested enough to discover what it was! Remember, at one time any skin rash or disease was lumped in as Leprosy! The Leper was cured cause somebody put some oil on dry skin, or a rash from some allergy went away!

Haven't you noted that as the third world countries become industrialized, the industrial countries become more service oriented? This simply means that the manufacturing (and all it carries with it like pollution and economic development) moves from place to place wherever the labor market is cheapest. The smog and junk just moves with it!
Look at the Europe, to N. America, to far East movement of the last 250 years!

Certainly some branch of your local or regional government can tell you your elevation. I can't imagine they operate that much differently down there than they do here! Our County Planning & Zoning office has maps that show it. So does the State Geologist's office! Even Federal offices have need of that info, and it is there for the asking! It just takes some prying to figure out whom to ask!

Thimk (spelling deliberate), there had to be some reason they called it a lake! Probably loads of evidence that it was a lake a zillion years ago! New Orleans turned back into a waterway under the proper conditions, so no reason why the Lake shouldn't!

[vsmith]

Well even if the world goes to h*ll on a tobogan, at least a solar powered garden RR would be pretty easy to do. All Solar PV cells already generate electricity in DC, so all that would be necessary would be a couple car batteries to store generated electricity to hook up your powerpack to, and you could keep running you trains, even if you can't run your car.

PS elevation: 1000 feet

[Anonymous]

Just a note the only CFC's in the USA today, to my knoweldge, is a few different Asthma inhalers, with phase out in 2 years(some time in 2008) for the vast majority of the ones left (a few other inhalers, as I understand it, have a little longer till they can figure out an effective reformulation of their product). the only reason they have been left on the market this long is: price/so little CFC release/ availablity/ and some patients poor response to replacement products -basically caused by a relasionship between: drug release, particle size and inflamitory response.

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by TheRockModeler

Just a note the only CFC's in the USA today, to my knoweldge, is a few different Asthma inhalers, with phase out in 2 years(some time in 2008) for the vast majority of the ones left (a few other inhalers, as I understand it, have a little longer till they can figure out an effective reformulation of their product). the only reason they have been left on the market this long is: price/so little CFC release/ availablity/ and some patients poor response to replacement products -basically caused by a relasionship between: drug release, particle size and inflamitory response.

Hi Eric,

That's kind of ironic, since a sizable percentage of today's asthma sufferers seem to have the greatest difficulties when the air pollution is higher than usual.

And as a random interjection: chronic bronchitis/borderline asthma is (more or less) responsible for my RhB addiction. As a kid I had the good fortune of being "shipped off" to the Grisons, more precisely the Engadine. Last stop before St.Moritz.
The Asthma home was located right beside the RhB line and even in 1952 it was a very fine spot to watch trains. 10 months of a regular RhB diet is very addictive.
The climate is very similar to what we have up on our XC skiing mountain, as is the elevation. And up on the mountain we also have "Narrow Gauge Tracks". [;)][:)][:D][;)]

[gvdobler]

iandor
My grandfather was a dyslexic agnostic with insomnia, he would sit up all night pondering the existence of his dog.

Anyway, I saw a special on PBS awhile ago about Vikings and how they were able to travel the way they did. The program stated that the earth heats up about every 500 years, which would have melted the ice to allow them to travel the routes they took. Now normally PBS would not miss a chance to blame the US and George Bush's family or his ancestors for anything bad that happens to the world, so maybe it just happens cyclic as said before.

When my grandfather died he was all dressed up with no where to go.[:D]

[Anonymous]

RhB_HJ, I agree with the irony -proof that there is more humor in the real world than what anyone could dream up..... Thats interesting how asthma/bronchitis got ya hooked, I hope ya dont have problems anymore.... I hope some of those "narow gauge" tracks are yours, I love skiing, but not much ablity to ski here in IA (no mountains here, but there are a few quote unquote skiing slopes here -laughable to the rest of the skiing world, but a short drive beats 12 hours to colorado, for a quick skiing fix)

[Anonymous]

No what i am talking about is melanoma namely skin cancer. the rate has gone through the roof in Australia and the government agencies involved have issued many helpful statements and clothing to combat the situation. This is not a maybe this hole is surely there and it is surely killing Australians at an alarming rate.

Rds Ian

[RhB_HJ]

QUOTE: Originally posted by TheRockModeler

RhB_HJ, I agree with the irony -proof that there is more humor in the real world than what anyone could dream up..... Thats interesting how asthma/bronchitis got ya hooked, I hope ya dont have problems anymore.... I hope some of those "narow gauge" tracks are yours, I love skiing, but not much ablity to ski here in IA (no mountains here, but there are a few quote unquote skiing slopes here -laughable to the rest of the skiing world, but a short drive beats 12 hours to colorado, for a quick skiing fix)

Eric,

Yep, plenty of my tracks up on the mountain. Matter of fact on Saturday, we had our annual 30km Loppet. Absolutely gorgeous conditions, brilliant sunshine, fresh, but groomed powder - we got a foot of the stuff last Wednesday!! - it was just wonderful. The only fly in the ointment was a d*a*m*n hamstring cramp I got at 11km, but I toughed it out. Next year I'll add a potassium routine to the carbohydrate-loading. Grrrrrrrrrrr!!!

PS the PC correction provided the correct number of asteriks. [;)][8D][;)]