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Dreamstar - a complement to Brightline?

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Dreamstar - a complement to Brightline?
Posted by Gramp on Friday, September 22, 2023 5:58 PM
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Posted by PNWRMNM on Friday, September 22, 2023 7:48 PM

Dream on, dream on.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Friday, September 22, 2023 10:00 PM

Salt Lake to Las Vegas?  The city of Latter Day Saints to Sin City?  Also they should look at a rail map-- the UP rail line does not follow I-15.  It does not go thru Cedar City of St. George.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, September 23, 2023 9:15 AM

PNWRMNM

Dream on, dream on.

I don't think that will go anywhere either.   Nothing for banks to evaluate risk except the past train offs from the 1960's and 1970's and I have my doubts that venture capitalists or private investors will step forwards in enough quantity for initial funding.

Banks never really ask to see a business plan before they loan money if you have money from another source and your business has equity they can claim if there is trouble.   First hand experience with running my own business.  They only really care about a business plan if they are providing initial startup capital or no equity.

Milwaukee has some buffoonery going on with private companies proposing to start up rail commute service in Milwaukee.    Nothing but talk so far but also do not think they will ever get enough money or backing to enter a new market like that without funding their own proof of concept substantially to overcome risk perception from financing sources.

 

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Posted by Overmod on Saturday, September 23, 2023 12:56 PM

MidlandMike
Salt Lake to Las Vegas?  The city of Latter Day Saints to Sin City?  Also they should look at a rail map-- the UP rail line does not follow I-15.  It does not go thru Cedar City of St. George.

Seemed fairly obvious to me that they were talking about operating night trains on the 'new' ROW that Brightline is going to build.  That gives additional utilization to Fortress for capacity they're not going to use (and that likely doesn't impact their real-estate plays directly) and as long as Dreamstar doesn't try competing with the daytime traffic, there's good reason to expect synergy.

The thing that gets financing 'in play' at all is the recent observation that Fortress is seeing above-the-line profitable operation of the existing Brightline trains -- something that was NOT predicted to happen.  So it is far less unlikely that, having the high-speed line 'in being' (in other words, 'we built it and they started to come') there wouldn't be a stable-enough market of nighttime traffic to be tapped.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Saturday, September 23, 2023 9:50 PM

Overmod

MidlandMike: Salt Lake to Las Vegas?  The city of Latter Day Saints to Sin City?  Also they should look at a rail map-- the UP rail line does not follow I-15.  It does not go thru Cedar City of St. George.

 

Seemed fairly obvious to me that they were talking about operating night trains on the 'new' ROW that Brightline is going to build.  That gives additional utilization to Fortress for capacity they're not going to use (and that likely doesn't impact their real-estate plays directly) and as long as Dreamstar doesn't try competing with the daytime traffic, there's good reason to expect synergy.

Cedar City and St. George are north of Las Vegas, beyong Brightline West.

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Posted by J. Bishop on Wednesday, September 27, 2023 9:34 PM

Los Angeles - San Francisco is a problem. I doubt if there is room on the Tehachapi portion of the inland line, and it is very slow because of Tehachapi.   The Coast Line has room and is faster, but is also slow, especially because of the mountains in the San Luis Obispo  area, but also topagraphy in other areas. In SP days, the Lark and the Owel overnight trains died, leaving only the Coast Daylight for Amtrak.  I don't see what has changed to make overnight trains viable again. 

--- Except that post-regulation airfares have gotten absurd.  In SP days, the LA-SF airfare was $15.

 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, September 28, 2023 2:11 PM

J. Bishop
I doubt if there is room on the Tehachapi portion of the inland line, and it is very slow because of Tehachapi

"The Bakersfield-Palmdale line is the critical link between Northern California and the Central Valley to Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas.

Brightline plans to connect its Las Vegas to L.A. high-speed line to California HSR at the Palmdale station. Which means travelers will funnel into the Brightline system from not only Southern California but also the Central Valley and Northern California—and vice versa.

The chosen route extends south and southeast from the Bakersfield Station. The Authority’s plan calls for building nine tunnels—totaling 10 miles—through the Tehachapi Mountains. The total cost of the segment is an estimated $19.7 billion."

I thought the state was going to build the above and is waiting on a grant or financing from the Feds?    Am I mistaken?

Also......I think the dashed line is the above proposal with California HSR.

https://www.hsrail.org/blog/brightline-west-releases-environmental-documents-for-cajon-pass/

 

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, September 28, 2023 4:18 PM

Overmod

 

 
MidlandMike
Salt Lake to Las Vegas?  The city of Latter Day Saints to Sin City?  Also they should look at a rail map-- the UP rail line does not follow I-15.  It does not go thru Cedar City of St. George.

 

Seemed fairly obvious to me that they were talking about operating night trains on the 'new' ROW that Brightline is going to build.  That gives additional utilization to Fortress for capacity they're not going to use (and that likely doesn't impact their real-estate plays directly) and as long as Dreamstar doesn't try competing with the daytime traffic, there's good reason to expect synergy.

 

The thing that gets financing 'in play' at all is the recent observation that Fortress is seeing above-the-line profitable operation of the existing Brightline trains -- something that was NOT predicted to happen.  So it is far less unlikely that, having the high-speed line 'in being' (in other words, 'we built it and they started to come') there wouldn't be a stable-enough market of nighttime traffic to be tapped.

 

This makes sense to me.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, September 28, 2023 4:57 PM

Some of the Brightline Orlando Airport trains are completely full on departure and get this......actually carrying people that recently stepped off an airplane.    Amtrak should take notice.

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Posted by York1 on Thursday, September 28, 2023 5:51 PM

CMStPnP

Some of the Brightline Orlando Airport trains are completely full on departure and get this......actually carrying people that recently stepped off an airplane.    Amtrak should take notice.

 

 

This is also why the proposed New Orleans - Mobile train would make a lot more sense if the train went to the New Orleans international airport.  It would attract riders from southern Alabama and Mississippi.  There are even tracks that cross the airport property.

As it is, Amtrak seems to have no desire to include the airport as a stop.

York1 John       

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Friday, September 29, 2023 10:03 AM

I'm not sure that it would be that simple.  The airport is west of NOUPT and the CPKC line is the one that passes near the airport.  A small terminal yard would need to be built at that location to serve trains to Mobile (and east) and I'm not sure it space is available.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
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Posted by J. Bishop on Friday, September 29, 2023 12:14 PM

Well.  I didn't know about that. Changes the picture entirely.  I suppose that a electified purely passenger line can handle the grades and curves of the I-15 over Cajon at 140 mph.  Hope they can get the financing for this.  I think some amount of public support would be justified because it should reduce the need to very expensively use public funds to increase the capacity of the I-15, which is obviously at capacity.  Perhaps in the future some way can be found for the currently-diesel Valley trains that currently terminate in Bakersfield to use the new line into the LA basin.

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Posted by York1 on Friday, September 29, 2023 12:16 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH

I'm not sure that it would be that simple.  The airport is west of NOUPT and the CPKC line is the one that passes near the airport.  A small terminal yard would need to be built at that location to serve trains to Mobile (and east) and I'm not sure it space is available.

 

 

I guess I was assuming that the proposed New Orleans to Baton Rouge train would use that track.  Directly west of the airport there was (it's been a few years since I lived there) some open space and some older buildings that could possibly be purchased and razed for a yard.

I believe if they are serious about a New Orleans - Mobile train, they could make it a Baton Rouge - Mobile train, with stops at the airport and at Union Passenger Terminal.  I think there would be much more interest for Alabama and Mississippi passengers to the airport than to just the Amtrak terminal.

I believe this is behind a paywall, but it explains the New Orleans - Baton Rouge train is finally being seriously considered:

 

https://www.nola.com/news/politics/legislature/state-gets-unexpected-20m-from-feds-will-use-it-for-rail/article_4d1bb7f2-3d1f-11ee-8ee8-8b9f5d2a44f8.html

York1 John       

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, September 30, 2023 11:49 AM

J. Bishop
Well.  I didn't know about that. Changes the picture entirely.  I suppose that a electified purely passenger line can handle the grades and curves of the I-15 over Cajon at 140 mph.  Hope they can get the financing for this.  I think some amount of public support would be justified because it should reduce the need to very expensively use public funds to increase the capacity of the I-15, which is obviously at capacity.  Perhaps in the future some way can be found for the currently-diesel Valley trains that currently terminate in Bakersfield to use the new line into the LA basin.

Which raises yet another issue that I am really, really curious about if someone could please try to answer.    Why is there a difference between the Brightline West I-15 proposal to cross the mountains vs. California High Speed Rail Tunneling under the mountains for the most part?     Is the speed difference worth the cost that tunneling will bring?     Really, serious I am curious on that answer because it is cited as one main reason California HSR is so expensive.   

CA HSR wants to tunnel under mountains both entering and exiting the Central Valley.   Anyone know what the incremental cost vs benefit is of that over the Brightline West proposal?

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Posted by Overmod on Saturday, September 30, 2023 4:34 PM

I thought Brightline West was going to mirror the speed of Brightline East (125mph peak with PRIIA-compliant equipment).

There is a big, big, big difference between the track structure for 125mph and that for 186+ HSR.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, September 30, 2023 10:48 PM

Overmod

I thought Brightline West was going to mirror the speed of Brightline East (125mph peak with PRIIA-compliant equipment).

There is a big, big, big difference between the track structure for 125mph and that for 186+ HSR.

Google states that HSR can handle grades of 2.5 to 4% and those grades are common on HSR tracks.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, September 30, 2023 10:53 PM

Overmod
I thought Brightline West was going to mirror the speed of Brightline East (125mph peak with PRIIA-compliant equipment). There is a big, big, big difference between the track structure for 125mph and that for 186+ HSR. Add Quote to your Post

Ahhh, here is the article we are both looking for.   Looks like they made compromises where they should not have and were stringent on speed where they should have been...........that seems to be the cost issue.    Could be reading this wrong though:

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-speed-20180729-story.html

 

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Posted by York1 on Sunday, October 1, 2023 7:09 AM

CMStPnP
Overmod
I thought Brightline West was going to mirror the speed of Brightline East (125mph peak with PRIIA-compliant equipment). There is a big, big, big difference between the track structure for 125mph and that for 186+ HSR. Add Quote to your Post

https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-speed-20180729-story.html

 

The key part of the article for me was the original speed targets to sell the system to voters were invented by politicians, not railroad experts.

 

York1 John       

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Posted by Overmod on Sunday, October 1, 2023 1:49 PM

Political targets are common -- the conflated stupidity in PTC, the gaming of Tier 4 NOx that so affected EMD's sales, and the pending legislation in the wake of the East Palestine debacle being some railroad examples.

The choice of 2'40" was perfectly achievable with sensible design and construction.  The issue is with consultants, state oversight, and general Californian incompetence and arrogant stupidity, not with impossible performance targets being set in order to fool or bamboozle voters.

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Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 2, 2023 5:53 PM

Overmod

I thought Brightline West was going to mirror the speed of Brightline East (125mph peak with PRIIA-compliant equipment).

There is a big, big, big difference between the track structure for 125mph and that for 186+ HSR.

 

A good overview of Brightline West.

 

https://youtu.be/Vb1JJgEpOi0?si=Ayn3l2ZPI2U_TOre

 

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by J. Bishop on Monday, October 2, 2023 6:30 PM

I wouldn't take LA Times editorials as authorative. Ralph V has a long and consistent history of hostile articles on the Cal HSR. It's basically his brand there. That said, I am not myself well enough enformed, nor am I an engineer, to critique it.  

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