oltmanndAmtrak gets you capital. No capital. No build. Brightline in FL cost $4B to build. GROSS revenue a year is likely to be $70x250x30x365x0.50=$100M. At 50% OR, that's 50M/yr. 80 year simple payback. Farebox ain't the secret sauce
Well first it was $5 Billion to build to Orlando last I checked. Also your annual revenue projections are rather a wild stab in the dark at this point since we have not seen a plateau in annual revenues nor would I think they would stay at the same static level for 80 years. So my take on the numbers would be they are more than a little off here. We are not even at full build out of the system nor do we know for sure if the starter system won't be added to or improved in 80 years. Sooo, too many unknowns still for a projection.
oltmanndBrightline pays for the capital cost with RE development. How would this work in Texas?
Why don't you ask them? I didn't express the interest to build Dallas to Houston on their behalf.........they did themselves. I have no inside info or clue what their plans are.
From my look at Google Maps aerial view and the Texas Central EIR plans (overlaid on aerial views) it appears that almost the entire way is ranch land, not farms.
mdwFrom my look at Google Maps aerial view and the Texas Central EIR plans (overlaid on aerial views) it appears that almost the entire way is ranch land, not farms
I'm not sure I see what difference that makes in taking away private property.
York1 John
CMStPnP oltmannd Amtrak gets you capital. No capital. No build. Brightline in FL cost $4B to build. GROSS revenue a year is likely to be $70x250x30x365x0.50=$100M. At 50% OR, that's 50M/yr. 80 year simple payback. Farebox ain't the secret sauce Well first it was $5 Billion to build to Orlando last I checked. Also your annual revenue projections are rather a wild stab in the dark at this point since we have not seen a plateau in annual revenues nor would I think they would stay at the same static level for 80 years. So my take on the numbers would be they are more than a little off here. We are not even at full build out of the system nor do we know for sure if the starter system won't be added to or improved in 80 years. Sooo, too many unknowns still for a projection.
oltmannd Amtrak gets you capital. No capital. No build. Brightline in FL cost $4B to build. GROSS revenue a year is likely to be $70x250x30x365x0.50=$100M. At 50% OR, that's 50M/yr. 80 year simple payback. Farebox ain't the secret sauce
Order of magnitude projection is decent. Simple payback is crap, but also good for a gauge.
There is no way the farebox will ever cover the capital. Ever. Anywhere. On any passenger rail project. Ever.
We either subsidize construction and let benefits a fall to RE owners or we let builders own some of the land around the contruction.
Land grants are one historical example. Transit lines built into potato farms in Queens are another.
And, c'mon, I assumed a 50% OR!
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Brightline Florida was able to be constructed in a era of extremely low borrowing costs.
Hopefully Brightline West will still be viable in this era of much higher borrowing costs.
kgbw49 Brightline Florida was able to be constructed in a era of extremely low borrowing costs. Hopefully Brightline West will still be viable in this era of much higher borrowing costs.
Let's hope. The station for that line is slated for unoccupied land on the south side of town. I'll bet they've gobbled up a lot of land for RE development.
You can't build anything without taking private property-except in the very rare case that the government already owns the land.
J. Bishop You can't build anything without taking private property-except in the very rare case that the government already owns the land.
Exactly. And that's one of the reasons why this railroad is unlikely to be built anytime soon.
There are other routes that could have been picked that would have avoided much of the problem.
And, as has been said several times, hitting property owners over the head with a sledgehammer is probably not the best way to sell the idea of the new railroad.
York1Exactly. And that's one of the reasons why this railroad is unlikely to be built anytime soon. There are other routes that could have been picked that would have avoided much of the problem. And, as has been said several times, hitting property owners over the head with a sledgehammer is probably not the best way to sell the idea of the new railroad.
I'm real curious why TxDot is buying up some of the land from Texas Central as it's options expire. Most especially the land tract in Madison County. Not sure what they have plans for there OR are they attempting to preserve progress made so far? Beats me but it is a rather curious issue to explore.
Wasn't most of the intended route to be immediately adjacent to a BNSF paralleling line? Also, at least in its literature, TC expressed it was sensitive to working with landowners to address needs with care.
Agree. Those big farm and ranch Texas corporations have lots of money and money equals political power. And political power can certainly stop Texas Central. Of course, there are also powerful interests invested in keeping transportation on highways -- everything from oil companies to auto makers, gas stations, to car parts stores, to highway motels, to fast food outfits. That just might be a factor here.
J. BishopAgree. Those big farm and ranch Texas corporations have lots of money and money equals political power. And political power can certainly stop Texas Central. Of course, there are also powerful interests invested in keeping transportation on highways -- everything from oil companies to auto makers, gas stations, to car parts stores, to highway motels, to fast food outfits. That just might be a factor here.
Texas being Texas - which of the corrupt elements will end up winning? There are no innocents.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
J. BishopAgree. Those big farm and ranch Texas corporations have lots of money and money equals political power.
Big farm and ranch Texas corporations that are owned by single families who have lived and worked on the land for generations.
They have lots of wealth --- in land if they sell it. Lots of money? If they are keeping their land in their families, they aren't quite as wealthy as it appears.
It seems that the word "corporation" is used to mean something bad. These are families who have incorporated their farms or ranches for tax benefits, for liability issues, and for inheritance issues. The only share holders are the families themselves. They are corporations, but they are still the single families who work hard for what they've got.
It's not right to just dismiss their cause because they are corporate farms. Farm or ranch, these are still American private land owners who have a right to try to keep what is theirs.
BaltACDTexas being Texas
Heyyyyyyy!!!! Thats the state I live in. To be honest, I understand the reputation even though all politics are local and I personally get whatever I want in most cases just by calling City Hall. So for me locally..... honest and service oriented at the level I deal with regularly. If I did that in the Midwest I would be lucky if someone picked up the phone or ever called me back.
If I see a pothole or sidewalk damaged I can log onto the internet via my City Hall account and pinpoint the location and description and it is fixed by City Hall promptly...........always.
Politically at the state level, I don't know how they did it but a grass roots effort convinced then Governor to pay for and startup Amtrak's Heartland Flyer. That surprised even me.
So that is why I always preach on this forum that it does not matter the politician in power. If you can form a decent grass roots effort and garner public support you can achieve in the rail passenger space. Railfans if they really want something need to put the effort in versus throwing their hands up in the air all the time..........in my view. I would think TRAINS staff would back me up on that.
Rare in the east. Not so rare in the west. I wonder how much Brightline West will be on BLM or Ag land?
Brightline West between LA and Vegas has the option of following and using the I-15 freeway, which is an available direct route. An excellent approach -- when you can do it.
Nothing wrong with corporations per se. My model railroad group is a corporation and I incorporated it.
But with many thousands of acres per farm, these are not the family farms of yore, not the 150-acre farm across the road from my grandparents run by farmer and his wife with occasional help from the Jones boys.
And having combined into larger and large acreage, there obviously are no longer that many farms. So their political force has got to be from their wealth, not numbers. If you are the average guy and they want to ram a freeway through your house, good luck getting anyone to listen or care.
J. BishopBut with many thousands of acres per farm, these are not the family farms of yore, not the 150-acre farm across the road from my grandparents run by farmer and his wife with occasional help from the Jones boys.
We're off the original topic, but I will disagree again.
My school board chairman's son is a farmer. He farms 2,000 acres of the corporate farm he owns about two miles from me. He does this himself with one hired man.
Of course these are not the farms of long ago. That is the same with just about any other business you can name.
My grandfather farmed 180 acres, and he made a living doing it. He used an old Ford tractor that pulled a two-row planter. Today, it would be impossible to make a living doing that.
J. BishopAnd having combined into larger and large acreage, there obviously are no longer that many farms. So their political force has got to be from their wealth, not numbers. If you are the average guy and they want to ram a freeway through your house, good luck getting anyone to listen or care.
The idea that because I own a large farm it's OK for the railroad to get the land is wrong. I don't know where you live, but out here in flyover country, a large farm's owner has about the same political power as a small farm's owner. In some cases, the smaller farmer may get listened to more than a wealthier farmer. And for a small landowner, a lot can be accomplished by banding together with others.
J. BishopNothing wrong with corporations per se.
This is an interesting statement. If I incorporate my farm to protect it from liability suits and to preserve the land for my family, I assume that would be OK. Because of the "per se" in the statement, when would you consider it wrong for a farm to incorporate?
Nothing wrong with incorporating. I am only suggesting that a corporate, thousands of acres farm has political power to resist eminent domain. And with that much land they are not likely to be wiped out by loosing a strip for a railroad or interstate. The I-5 through the central valley here in California was driven right through big farms, and the farms are still there.
I can see that really hurting a small traditional small farm. And the harm, large or small farm, should be compensated.
[quote user="charlie hebdo" They can afford an underpass as they are maybe getting aid from the USDA.[/quote] The rule of thumb in cases like this is that if the railroad arrives after the land is already owned, the railroad pays for the cost of building and maintaining the crossing. Same as where a railroad crosses another railroad.
Brightline is projecting "hundreds of millions" in revenue now from a completed Tampa to Miami system and given that their previous projections were on the conservative side..........I think your theory of operating revenue not really paying for the rail line might be eroding a bit. See linked article below towards the bottom.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/us/brightline-train-rail-florida.html
Also relevant to this thread, Wes Edens, head of Fortress Investments again mentioned these rail corridors as high potential that he views as a sweet spot for high speed rail development:
LA to Las Vegas (Brightline West)
Charlotte to Atlanta
Dallas to Houston
NW Corridor (sorry lost the article link but it is the Route that has Seattle as a stop but I do not remember if it included Portand, Vancouver or what believe it was an interview with a Palm Beach paper but I cannot find it. Was Sept 25th or later).
He also mentioned what inspired him to build Brightline was the book on Mr. Flager and FEC trains and he views himself as following in Flager's footsteps.
CMStPnPBrightline is projecting "hundreds of millions" in revenue now from a completed Tampa to Miami system and given that their previous projections were on the conservative side..........I think your theory of operating revenue not really paying for the rail line might be eroding a bit. See linked article below towards the bottom.
Be interesting to see if they can keep that going as they expand and grow. We all know plenty of businesses that lost their quality as they got bigger.
Also, how long do they keep themselves considered an interurban, and not a railroad?
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
oltmannd Brightline pays for the capital cost with RE development. How would this work in Texas?
Editor Emeritus, This Week at Amtrak
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