Trains.com

A monster is born in high speed rail.

6526 views
54 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    September 2010
  • From: East Coast
  • 1,199 posts
Posted by D.Carleton on Wednesday, October 4, 2023 2:30 PM

oltmannd
Brightline pays for the capital cost with RE development. How would this work in Texas?

It wouldn't. Fortress acquired FECI which included the railroad, Flagler Development and all the legacy properties. They spun off the railroad and kept everything else. Brightline is the horizontal elevator connecting the brownfield developments. In Texas the property is owned by disparate entities, will cost a fortune to acquire and has little preexisting development to enhance along the ROW. ("Unfortunately there is one thing standing between me and that property - the rightful owners.")
It was a surprise to see Stuart, Florida, roll out the welcome mat for the inaugural train despite no station currently there. The whole coast has that potential.

Editor Emeritus, This Week at Amtrak

  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Canterlot
  • 9,575 posts
Posted by zugmann on Wednesday, October 4, 2023 12:02 PM

CMStPnP
Brightline is projecting "hundreds of millions" in revenue now from a completed Tampa to Miami system and given that their previous projections were on the conservative side..........I think your theory of operating revenue not really paying for the rail line might be eroding a bit.    See linked article below towards the bottom.

Be interesting to see if they can keep that going as they expand and grow.  We all know plenty of businesses that lost their quality as they got bigger.  

Also, how long do they keep themselves considered an interurban, and not a railroad? 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, October 4, 2023 11:56 AM

Also relevant to this thread, Wes Edens, head of Fortress Investments again mentioned these rail corridors as high potential that he views as a sweet spot for high speed rail development:

LA to Las Vegas (Brightline West)

Charlotte to Atlanta

Dallas to Houston

NW Corridor (sorry lost the article link but it is the Route that has Seattle as a stop but I do not remember if it included Portand, Vancouver or what believe it was an interview with a Palm Beach paper but I cannot find it.   Was Sept 25th or later).

He also mentioned what inspired him to build Brightline was the book on Mr. Flager and FEC trains and he views himself as following in Flager's footsteps.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, October 4, 2023 11:50 AM

oltmannd
Brightline pays for the capital cost with RE development. How would this work in Texas?

Brightline is projecting "hundreds of millions" in revenue now from a completed Tampa to Miami system and given that their previous projections were on the conservative side..........I think your theory of operating revenue not really paying for the rail line might be eroding a bit.    See linked article below towards the bottom.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/us/brightline-train-rail-florida.html

 

  • Member since
    May 2019
  • 1,314 posts
Posted by BEAUSABRE on Tuesday, October 3, 2023 11:39 PM

[quote user="charlie hebdo" They can afford an underpass as they are maybe getting aid from the USDA.[/quote] The rule of thumb in cases like this is that if the railroad arrives after the land is already owned, the railroad pays for the cost of building and maintaining the crossing. Same as where a railroad crosses another railroad. 

  • Member since
    June 2014
  • 73 posts
Posted by J. Bishop on Tuesday, October 3, 2023 6:19 PM

Nothing wrong with incorporating. I am only suggesting that a corporate, thousands of acres farm has political power to resist eminent domain. And with that much land they are not likely to be wiped out by loosing a strip for a railroad or interstate. The I-5 through the central valley here in California was driven right through big farms, and the farms are still there.

I can see that really hurting a small traditional small farm.  And the harm, large or small farm, should be compensated. 

  • Member since
    February 2018
  • From: Flyover Country
  • 5,557 posts
Posted by York1 on Monday, October 2, 2023 8:17 PM

J. Bishop
But with many thousands of acres per farm, these are not the family farms of yore, not the 150-acre farm across the road from my grandparents run by farmer and his wife with occasional help from the Jones boys.  

 

We're off the original topic, but I will disagree again.

My school board chairman's son is a farmer.  He farms 2,000 acres of the corporate farm he owns about two miles from me.  He does this himself with one hired man.

Of course these are not the farms of long ago.  That is the same with just about any other business you can name.

My grandfather farmed 180 acres, and he made a living doing it.  He used an old Ford tractor that pulled a two-row planter.  Today, it would be impossible to make a living doing that.

 

J. Bishop
And having combined into larger and large acreage, there obviously are no longer that many farms. So their political force has got to be from their wealth, not numbers. If you are the average guy and they want to ram a freeway through your house, good luck getting anyone to listen or care.

 

The idea that because I own a large farm it's OK for the railroad to get the land is wrong.  I don't know where you live, but out here in flyover country, a large farm's owner has about the same political power as a small farm's owner.  In some cases, the smaller farmer may get listened to more than a wealthier farmer.  And for a small landowner, a lot can be accomplished by banding together with others.

 

J. Bishop
Nothing wrong with corporations per se.

 

This is an interesting statement.  If I incorporate my farm to protect it from liability suits and to preserve the land for my family, I assume that would be OK.  Because of the "per se" in the statement, when would you consider it wrong for a farm to incorporate?  

York1 John       

  • Member since
    June 2014
  • 73 posts
Posted by J. Bishop on Monday, October 2, 2023 6:46 PM

Nothing wrong with corporations per se. My model railroad group is a corporation and I incorporated it.

But with many thousands of acres per farm, these are not the family farms of yore, not the 150-acre farm across the road from my grandparents run by farmer and his wife with occasional help from the Jones boys.  

And having combined into larger and large acreage, there obviously are no longer that many farms. So their political force has got to be from their wealth, not numbers. If you are the average guy and they want to ram a freeway through your house, good luck getting anyone to listen or care.  

  • Member since
    June 2014
  • 73 posts
Posted by J. Bishop on Monday, October 2, 2023 6:37 PM

Brightline West between LA and Vegas has the option of following and using the I-15 freeway, which is an available direct route.  An excellent approach -- when you can do it.

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Monday, October 2, 2023 5:46 PM

J. Bishop

You can't build anything without taking private property-except in the very rare case that the government already owns the land.  

 

Rare in the east.  Not so rare in the west.  I wonder how much Brightline West will be on BLM or Ag land?

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, September 30, 2023 11:22 AM

BaltACD
Texas being Texas

Heyyyyyyy!!!!   Thats the state I live in.    To be honest, I understand the reputation even though all politics are local and I personally get whatever I want in most cases just by calling City Hall.    So for me locally..... honest and service oriented at the level I deal with regularly.    If I did that in the Midwest I would be lucky if someone picked up the phone or ever called me back.

If I see a pothole or sidewalk damaged I can log onto the internet via my City Hall account and pinpoint the location and description and it is fixed by City Hall promptly...........always.

Politically at the state level, I don't know how they did it but a grass roots effort convinced then Governor to pay for and startup Amtrak's Heartland Flyer.    That surprised even me.   

So that is why I always preach on this forum that it does not matter the politician in power.   If you can form a decent grass roots effort and garner public support you can achieve in the rail passenger space.   Railfans if they really want something need to put the effort in versus throwing their hands up in the air all the time..........in my view.    I would think TRAINS staff would back me up on that.

  • Member since
    February 2018
  • From: Flyover Country
  • 5,557 posts
Posted by York1 on Friday, September 29, 2023 4:06 PM

J. Bishop
Agree.  Those big farm and ranch Texas corporations have lots of money and money equals political power. 

 

Big farm and ranch Texas corporations that are owned by single families who have lived and worked on the land for generations.

They have lots of wealth --- in land if they sell it.  Lots of money?  If they are keeping their land in their families, they aren't quite as wealthy as it appears.

It seems that the word "corporation" is used to mean something bad.  These are families who have incorporated their farms or ranches for tax benefits, for liability issues, and for inheritance issues.  The only share holders are the families themselves.  They are corporations, but they are still the single families who work hard for what they've got.

It's not right to just dismiss their cause because they are corporate farms.  Farm or ranch, these are still American private land owners who have a right to try to keep what is theirs.

 

York1 John       

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Friday, September 29, 2023 2:33 PM

J. Bishop
Agree.  Those big farm and ranch Texas corporations have lots of money and money equals political power.  And political power can certainly stop Texas Central.   Of course, there are also powerful interests invested in keeping transportation on highways -- everything from oil companies to  auto makers, gas stations, to car parts stores, to highway motels, to fast food outfits.  That just might be a factor here. 

Texas being Texas - which of the corrupt elements will end up winning?  There are no innocents.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    June 2014
  • 73 posts
Posted by J. Bishop on Friday, September 29, 2023 12:23 PM

Agree.  Those big farm and ranch Texas corporations have lots of money and money equals political power.  And political power can certainly stop Texas Central.   Of course, there are also powerful interests invested in keeping transportation on highways -- everything from oil companies to  auto makers, gas stations, to car parts stores, to highway motels, to fast food outfits.  That just might be a factor here. 

  • Member since
    October 2014
  • 1,139 posts
Posted by Gramp on Thursday, September 28, 2023 2:05 PM

Wasn't most of the intended route to be immediately adjacent to a BNSF paralleling line?  
Also, at least in its literature, TC expressed it was sensitive to working with landowners to address needs with care. 

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, September 28, 2023 2:03 PM

York1
Exactly.  And that's one of the reasons why this railroad is unlikely to be built anytime soon. There are other routes that could have been picked that would have avoided much of the problem. And, as has been said several times, hitting property owners over the head with a sledgehammer is probably not the best way to sell the idea of the new railroad.

I'm real curious why TxDot is buying up some of the land from Texas Central as it's options expire.    Most especially the land tract in Madison County.    Not sure what they have plans for there OR are they attempting to preserve progress made so far?    Beats me but it is a rather curious issue to explore.

  • Member since
    February 2018
  • From: Flyover Country
  • 5,557 posts
Posted by York1 on Thursday, September 28, 2023 12:41 PM

J. Bishop

You can't build anything without taking private property-except in the very rare case that the government already owns the land.  

 

 

Exactly.  And that's one of the reasons why this railroad is unlikely to be built anytime soon.

There are other routes that could have been picked that would have avoided much of the problem.

And, as has been said several times, hitting property owners over the head with a sledgehammer is probably not the best way to sell the idea of the new railroad.

York1 John       

  • Member since
    June 2014
  • 73 posts
Posted by J. Bishop on Wednesday, September 27, 2023 7:45 PM

You can't build anything without taking private property-except in the very rare case that the government already owns the land.  

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, September 27, 2023 10:28 AM

kgbw49

Brightline Florida was able to be constructed in a era of extremely low borrowing costs.

Hopefully Brightline West will still be viable in this era of much higher borrowing costs.

 

Let's hope.  The station for that line is slated for unoccupied land on the south side of town.  I'll bet they've gobbled up a lot of land for RE development.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Tuesday, September 26, 2023 8:36 PM

Brightline Florida was able to be constructed in a era of extremely low borrowing costs.

Hopefully Brightline West will still be viable in this era of much higher borrowing costs.

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, September 26, 2023 3:28 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
oltmannd
Amtrak gets you capital.  No capital.  No build.   Brightline in FL cost $4B to build.  GROSS revenue a year is likely to be $70x250x30x365x0.50=$100M.  At 50% OR, that's 50M/yr.   80 year simple payback. Farebox ain't the secret sauce

 

Well first it was $5 Billion to build to Orlando last I checked.    Also your annual revenue projections are rather a wild stab in the dark at this point since we have not seen a plateau in annual revenues nor would I think they would stay at the same static level for 80 years.   So my take on the numbers would be they are more than a little off here.     We are not even at full build out of the system nor do we know for sure if the starter system won't be added to or improved in 80 years.   Sooo, too many unknowns still for a projection.

 

Order of magnitude projection is decent.  Simple payback is crap, but also good for a gauge.

There is no way the farebox will ever cover the capital.  Ever.  Anywhere.  On any passenger rail project.  Ever. 

We either subsidize construction and let benefits a fall to RE owners or we let builders own some of the land around the contruction.

Land grants are one historical example.  Transit lines built into potato farms in Queens are another.

 

And, c'mon, I assumed a 50% OR!

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    February 2018
  • From: Flyover Country
  • 5,557 posts
Posted by York1 on Tuesday, September 26, 2023 12:30 PM

mdw
From my look at Google Maps aerial view and the Texas Central EIR plans (overlaid on aerial views) it appears that almost the entire way is ranch land, not farms

 

I'm not sure I see what difference that makes in taking away private property.

York1 John       

mdw
  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 61 posts
Posted by mdw on Monday, September 25, 2023 9:34 PM

From my look at Google Maps aerial view and the Texas Central EIR plans (overlaid on aerial views) it appears that almost the entire way is ranch land, not farms.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, September 25, 2023 5:19 PM

oltmannd
Brightline pays for the capital cost with RE development. How would this work in Texas?

Why don't you ask them?   I didn't express the interest to build Dallas to Houston on their behalf.........they did themselves.   I have no inside info or clue what their plans are.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, September 25, 2023 5:09 PM

oltmannd
Amtrak gets you capital.  No capital.  No build.   Brightline in FL cost $4B to build.  GROSS revenue a year is likely to be $70x250x30x365x0.50=$100M.  At 50% OR, that's 50M/yr.   80 year simple payback. Farebox ain't the secret sauce

Well first it was $5 Billion to build to Orlando last I checked.    Also your annual revenue projections are rather a wild stab in the dark at this point since we have not seen a plateau in annual revenues nor would I think they would stay at the same static level for 80 years.   So my take on the numbers would be they are more than a little off here.     We are not even at full build out of the system nor do we know for sure if the starter system won't be added to or improved in 80 years.   Sooo, too many unknowns still for a projection.

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Monday, September 25, 2023 4:32 PM

CMStPnP

Nooooo, noooooo, noooooo.    Let it die please!!!!Angry

https://www.ktre.com/2023/08/09/texas-central-amtrak-seek-partnership-high-speed-rail-project-stakeholders-react/?emci=095aff22-6d38-ee11-a3f1-00224832eb73&emdi=b00c9a1a-8838-ee11-a3f1-00224832eb73&ceid=2199905

This will be a bigger financial disaster than the California project.   The Texas Central team is incompetent and has proven it over and over again.    Adding Amtrak to the mix guarantees a bigger fiasco.

They should sell the rights to Brightline, in my view and abandon the Japanese high speed train as a bad idea.

 

Amtrak gets you capital.  No capital.  No build.  

Brightline in FL cost $4B to build.  GROSS revenue a year is likely to be $70x250x30x365x0.50=$100M.  At 50% OR, that's 50M/yr.  

80 year simple payback.

Farebox ain't the secret sauce.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Monday, September 25, 2023 4:28 PM

CMStPnP

Nooooo, noooooo, noooooo.    Let it die please!!!!Angry

https://www.ktre.com/2023/08/09/texas-central-amtrak-seek-partnership-high-speed-rail-project-stakeholders-react/?emci=095aff22-6d38-ee11-a3f1-00224832eb73&emdi=b00c9a1a-8838-ee11-a3f1-00224832eb73&ceid=2199905

This will be a bigger financial disaster than the California project.   The Texas Central team is incompetent and has proven it over and over again.    Adding Amtrak to the mix guarantees a bigger fiasco.

They should sell the rights to Brightline, in my view and abandon the Japanese high speed train as a bad idea.

 

Brightline pays for the capital cost with RE development. How would this work in Texas?

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, September 25, 2023 1:03 PM

D.Carleton
Meanwhile you're building your expansion into Central Florida. Now that it's running look for the majority of passengers to be from SoFlo making the trip.

A chunk of South Florida property owners are actually from overseas now.   Not sure on the full percentage but they fly in for the winter and other breaks during the year.    I think you might want to gander over and look at what the percentage of foriegn ownership of residential property is in Florida.    You might be surprised.   When my Parents lived in Naples their next door neighbor lived in the UK.   I would guess some of the Europeans and folks from other countries use rail passenger service in their home country and kind of want to see it here as well.   Just a hunch I have.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, September 25, 2023 12:58 PM

Backshop
Does a farmer in the Central Valley really care that the rail line makes it easier for someone from LA to go to Vegas to waste money?

Oh boy.   I think if I were a Farmer I might just be interested in attending the "Holy Cow" show going on now in Las Vegas.    Possibly future conventions dealing with farm equipment, seeds or financing........maybe insurance.

They might consider the train to visit relatives or have relatives use it to visit them as has been going on for over a Century.   BTW, riding LD Amtrak I have come into contact with Farmers.

Last a definitive majority of the population wants to see expanded rail passenger service and more investments made in rail passenger service (you can Google). 

 

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy