High Speed Handout
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-08-11/california-high-speed-rail-wins-25-million-u-s-grant-seeks-1-3-billion-more
Former Car Maintainer BaltACD Were the Egyptian pyramids completed 'On Time and Under Budget'? Good analogy: Both pyramid and HSR were envisioned by political demagogues, built as a tribute to themselves, and serve no useful purpose....
BaltACD Were the Egyptian pyramids completed 'On Time and Under Budget'?
Were the Egyptian pyramids completed 'On Time and Under Budget'?
Good analogy: Both pyramid and HSR were envisioned by political demagogues, built as a tribute to themselves, and serve no useful purpose....
Egyptian pyramid building was refined over decades, and its simple shape belies its complex internal structure. As well at teaching the ancients how to build massive structures, and organize complex projects, it is said that these projects help unify the kindom. All civilizations build monuments, but how many are still standing after 4500 years, and draw visitors from all over the world, supporting a tourist industry almost as old.
charlie hebdoThis is supposed to be a forum about passenger trains, which include HSR. But every time there is a post about HSR, we get a chorus of right wing political posts condemning modern trains. We all get it,. You hate the government, hate HSR. Post if you have a constructive comment.
$1.8M daily costs for bullet
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/california-bullet-train/2022/10/09/id/1091093/
[quote user="Former Car Maintainer"]
"$1.8M daily costs for bullet"
Remeber the old saying "What's one man's expenses is another man's income"? I bet all those working on this project at every level hope it lasts indefinitely. Unfortunately, this seems to be the normal for major goverment projects on the federal level and in too many of our states.
Finally, an informative essay on the topic that's an easy to read and understand by the average lay person:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/09/us/california-high-speed-rail-politics.html
That is a great summary.
Saw this link in the comments.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/HD_Every-State-Top-Export_Map_v2.png
Didn't the Swiss build a base tunnel under the Alps, something like a tenth of the direct route between LA and SF, in less time?
And, I think, for less money?
If I remember correctly, the whole of the Millau Viaduct, self-launching erection and dummy piers included, was something like the equivalent of $300M when it was built.
NKP guy Finally, an informative essay on the topic that's an easy to read and understand by the average lay person: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/09/us/california-high-speed-rail-politics.html
Looks like the Times implying that there is more money in it, if the bullet train never opens..
The US has "hardening of the arteries".
BaltACDbeing credited to driving the Italian national airline Alitalia into bankruptcy.
Which is not saying much because it was a very poorly run state enterprise before. Not sure if they went private or not but most business folks spread around to avoid Alitalia. I know it was a strong avoid at IBM.
OvermodDidn't the Swiss build a base tunnel under the Alps, something like a tenth of the direct route between LA and SF, in less time?
What was the total cost of that? If I remember correctly the Swiss could not afford it on their own and had to go to the EU. Vague memory though, could be wrong on that.
The politically maneuvered Palmdale dogleg remindes me of the NEC proposed upgrades to run the line straighter between the NY area and Boston. Providence effectivally killed any proposal that didn't dogleg thru their town.
Losing, loser, lost...da bullet bites da bullet
https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-people-california-bullet-train-224348402.html
One other problem for the Cal HSR is that the state is facing a $30B deficit this coming year. This further compounded by the state losing population for the last couple of years. N.B. I've been a CA resident for all but 3 years of my life and 2 of those 3 years were in Nevada.
It would have been nice had the HSR program been done the way the original San Diego Trolley was done where the initial segment was done on time and under budget.
Ironic if Brightline West becomes operational before Merced-Bakersfield.
Former Car MaintainerLosing, loser, lost...da bullet bites da bullet https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-people-california-bullet-train-224348402.html
Several key points from the article that are not encouraging:
"One potential repercussion of diminished ridership projections include the effects on operating revenues for the rail system. Proposition 1A, ... includes a key provision that requires the system to be self-sufficient and be able to cover its own operating costs without any subsidies from taxpayers. “I’ll just say this about the subsidy issue: ... Kelly told rail authority board members. “We think that is still going to be a net operating system surplus.” “We’ll need to do a couple of things,” he added. “... and how you shift your fare structure. In so doing, you can reach sort of a sweet point between number of riders and revenue generated.”
"One potential repercussion of diminished ridership projections include the effects on operating revenues for the rail system. Proposition 1A, ... includes a key provision that requires the system to be self-sufficient and be able to cover its own operating costs without any subsidies from taxpayers.
“I’ll just say this about the subsidy issue: ... Kelly told rail authority board members. “We think that is still going to be a net operating system surplus.”
“We’ll need to do a couple of things,” he added. “... and how you shift your fare structure. In so doing, you can reach sort of a sweet point between number of riders and revenue generated.”
In other words, the fares are going to be increased. How much does a plane ticket cost?
"In the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s 2022 business plan, the estimate cost to complete planned Merced-Bakersfield segment to become operational ranged from $22.5 billion to about $24 billion. The 2023 update now projects the cost in a range between $29.8 billion and $32.9 billion."
That's not exactly a small increase in just one year's estimates for this segment of the railroad. With the new estimation for the date of the first train on this segment coming in 2030-2033, I wonder what the costs are actually going to end up being?
The real tragedy in all of this continues to be that this mess will discourage any other development of high speed rail in other parts of the country. Whenever the topic of American HSR comes up, everyone's first thought will be ... California showed that we shouldn't do it.
York1 John
Keep in mind they have to use year-of-expenditure dollars. So the cost goes up automatically with any delays. In other words, expenses incured 2030 are in projected 2030 dollars, not today's dollars.
Former Car Maintainer BaltACD How many lanes wide should California Interstates be expanded to to be able to handle all the non-carbon based vehicles that will be operating in the future - 5 lanes each way, 10 lanes each way, 20 lanes each way. Should they just pave a 1/2 mile wide swath of land - without lane lines so they don't impede anyone's 'freedom' and operate it as rolling helter skelter. The current capacity of I-5 is not maxed. Why? 49 minute flights from SFO to LAX. Will non carbon cars change the equation? The drive time will still be the same 6 hrs with the possible increase of stopping to charge along the way...
BaltACD How many lanes wide should California Interstates be expanded to to be able to handle all the non-carbon based vehicles that will be operating in the future - 5 lanes each way, 10 lanes each way, 20 lanes each way. Should they just pave a 1/2 mile wide swath of land - without lane lines so they don't impede anyone's 'freedom' and operate it as rolling helter skelter.
How many lanes wide should California Interstates be expanded to to be able to handle all the non-carbon based vehicles that will be operating in the future - 5 lanes each way, 10 lanes each way, 20 lanes each way. Should they just pave a 1/2 mile wide swath of land - without lane lines so they don't impede anyone's 'freedom' and operate it as rolling helter skelter.
The current capacity of I-5 is not maxed. Why? 49 minute flights from SFO to LAX. Will non carbon cars change the equation? The drive time will still be the same 6 hrs with the possible increase of stopping to charge along the way...
Can you honestly say with a straight face there are no cost overruns in the private sector?
Cost estimates are notorioyusly inaccurate. Add to that compounded inflation.
All this, yes... but:
The fares will be calculated and assessed in 2030 or whatever dollars, by which point I fully expect them to be so high as to preclude any approximation to the required take rate. Unless there are incentives or subsidies, which the legislation expressly proscribes, or legislators go back on their word (which is what I suspect their 'solution' is going to involve).
Or sell or lease the system to an outfit like Fortress, who can run what they want and charge what they like, and at least stop the bleeding...
Los Angeles to Las Vegas "Gamblers Bullet" to be built long before "California HSR, TARP funded Bullet"...
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/construction-10b-high-speed-train-165645514.html
I think California can still turn this into a win. First thing they need to do is calculate the Economic Benefit to the state in GDP and tax revenue in completing the line. Go to the taxpayers and show them that benefit but that at this point the State has proven that it cannot manage the project as a project lead. Turn the project over to a private firm to complete the project that has experience in high speed rail projects with the understanding they can run the system and collect ticket revenue and right of way sharing revenue as well as generous real estate development incentives along the line up to a specific point in the future. State cuts it's remaining capital expenditure by 2/3 or more or possibly completely and moves onto other projects.
Overmod All this, yes... but: The fares will be calculated and assessed in 2030 or whatever dollars, by which point I fully expect them to be so high as to preclude any approximation to the required take rate. Unless there are incentives or subsidies, which the legislation expressly proscribes, or legislators go back on their word (which is what I suspect their 'solution' is going to involve). Or sell or lease the system to an outfit like Fortress, who can run what they want and charge what they like, and at least stop the bleeding...
Agree and that was the original intent of this project as it was to be 50/50 between state and private firm originally until the state got arrogant and decided to make it 100% state with no past experience with High Speed Lines. Which resulted in the fiasco where we are at. Lose the arrogance, admit the mistake and turn it over to a private firm as you describe above with incentives and they can restore the viability of the project and exit it altogether (save the taxpayer).
The real win in the project is not ticket revenue vs building costs but instead increased tax collection revenue from ancillary development and positive GDP growth impact of increased mobility if they can get the projected schedule back to respectible or fast.
Calif HSR....$128 billion boondoggle
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cost-estimate-high-speed-rail-224913991.html
Former Car MaintainerCalif HSR....$128 billion boondoggle https://www.yahoo.com/news/cost-estimate-high-speed-rail-224913991.html
Remember the Cardinal Rule of 'public works projects' - if the funds for the projects don't end up in YOUR pockes then it is a boondoggle.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
What is the best course to follow now? Just keep going with the project and spend the many billions? Cut the plans back to certain segments? Scrap the whole thing?
There is no good solution. I'm sorry that at my age, I'll not live long enough to find out what will finally happen.
I guess what can be hoped for is a Chunnel type experience. Those who "invested" to get it built take a bath. Somebody else picks it up for a song, and makes something of it.
Wherever he is now, and if he's able to keep up with current events, I'll bet Al Capone wishes he came up with a racket like this.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.