What if Amtrak had never been formed

[Deggesty]

I have the impression that all passenger cars in regular service depended upon steam from engine for all heat (and some, such as Santa Fe and Southern, also depended upon steam for cooling).

I wonder if, when there were through cars from the east coast to the west coast, if the non SFe cars' cooling systems gave the SFe maintenance people trouble--and likewise if the PRR and NYC crews that handled SOU and SFe passenger cars also had trouble. Maybe not. 

[Overmod]

blue streak 1

How slowed would the conversion to HEP have been ? With all the different carriers probably not much standard type and completely incompatible ?

You'd have evolved an industry standard PDQ especially in a situation where revenues are crashing but costs of maintaining steam-based heat and axle-based electric -- including the safety hazards Amtrak now recognizes for Spicer drives -- escalate increasingly.  It would almost certainly have been based around the 440V AC systems already developed around that time for transit systems, probably with the construction and continued use of 'power cars' or built-in power in baggage or other head-end equipment being a significant part of the early years; those cars would then be passed down to 'poorer' railroads as newer equipment and locomotives came to be built or rebuilt.

Comparable phenomena converging take rate around an evolving practical standard can be seen easily in the history of technology; one that comes quickly to mind is SCSI.  Of course there would be some 'likely' different approaches, especially on railroads or systems that wanted some form of "HEP-lite" (perhaps just for lighting, leaving axle-generated charging for cheap HVAC where provided in older converted consists). 

Perhaps the chief 'argument' would become whether the power should be taken off the traction alternator at sustained high rpm of the prime mover or derived from an efficient 4-stroke truck-engine-derived genset.  This is enough of a timeless topic in a heavily subsidized world that it would apply in alternate history as well.

 

[blue streak 1]

How slowed would the conversion to HEP have been ?  With all the different carriers probably not much standard type and completely incompatible ?  AAR would have had to step in ? Steam lines many more years ?

[Convicted One]

KBCpresident

or would all the Class Is have eventually abandoned passenger travel

 

I'm going to play this one from a different angle than the rest have.

I believe that Amtrak was created as a means of relieving the railroads of their obligation to provide passenger rail.   I always thought that many of the railroads had the requirement to provide passenger service (to serve the public good) as a condition of their original charters. That bond being part of the bargain that got them eminent domain powers.

So, unless I'm wrong about that, I think that the railroads we have would still be providing some forms of passenger service.

Toward the end of independent passenger service, many of the railroads were  employing questionable methods to depress ridership, and otherwise justify cut backs to the levels of service they were providing, as a way to stack the deck in their favor to support their petitions to stop services.   Some areas were just starting to fight back in opposition to those ploys by the railroads.....but the creation of Amtrak made those discussions moot.

SO, if Amtrak had never been created, I think it's likely that some of those opposition movements would have picked up momentum. And service cuts would have become more difficult to gain approval for.

[Overmod]

oltmannd

One difference you'd see is that there would be a lot more freight traffic on the NEC and a lot less on the LV-RDG route from NJ to points south and west.

And a substantial part of it probably electrified to this day, with both GM straight electrics and dual-mode-lite diesels (or the equivalent of electrified MATEs with slug-mother connections).  Perhaps by extension electrification of progressive islands towards Pittsburgh, probably consolidated as intermodal traffic ramped up. Might have given us key parts of Don's future long before 2040!

We would not have had the Chase wreck and what followed as its aftermath.  That alone is an interesting alternative-history item.

[oltmannd]

KBCpresident

If Amtrak had not been created in 1971, what do you think passenger rail in the United States would look like today? Would it exist at all? Do you think private passenger rail would still exist, or would all the Class Is have eventually abandoned passenger travel? If so, how long do you think they would have held out? 80s? 90s? I know my "what if" posts aren't all that popular, but I'm curious how people think that would have played out.

 

I pretty much agree with Overmod.

The long distance trains were pretty much toast.  Maybe ACL keeps the Florida trains going for a while until the equipment is shot.  Maybe Santa Fe keeps the Super Cheif and BN keeps the Empire Builder for a while.  Maybe into the late 70s?

The NEC between NY and DC probably keeps going.  I'd guess that the states on the route - NY, NJ, PA, DE and MD - figure out a way to keep it funded with Conrail becoming the operator.

One difference you'd see is that there would be a lot more freight traffic on the NEC and a lot less on the LV-RDG route from NJ to points south and west.

[Overmod]

We'd probably have had accelerated train-off notices until there was effective Balkanization (to use John Kneiling's term) of any 'national' system of passenger trains.  Some systems, Southern for one, would hold out a few years, but shut down with changes in management or difficulties with aging equipment.  Absent the mandate Amtrak was given compelling passage rights for its trains I doubt that many organized passenger services under private ownership would have thrived (Auto Train likely being one, but going belly-up for most of the same reasons it did, and without an Amtrak to revive the idea with less perceived risk in case of accident).

NEC preserved (how could it not be) likely with local organizations expanding to fill 'gaps' like the one between MARC and SEPTA and coordinating long-distance interstate traffic as well as provide strictly local service in their own names.  Regional corridors would likely develop out of state agencies much as they have, with companies like Keolis probably forming specialized passenger-train management practices earlier to fill the 'void' from not having an Amtrak to run (and in cases politically excuse) corridor services outside the Northeast.  Look for Conrail (likely forming post-Agnes just as it did historically, but still tasked with all NEC passenger ops in the absence of Amtrak) to get rid of operating through trains just as it did with commuter services -- outsourcing to concentrate on becoming as profitable as circumstances would let them, and incidentally shucking most of whatever redundant interstate trains on 'component' roads had not yet succumbed to train-off petitions...

I'd expect companies to set up cruise trains on a variety of routes; they'd work much like my observation of New York restaurants.  Open with great fanfare, run until traffic drops off, cancel and sell the equipment to the next greater fool who will try using it again.

Hard to say where much budget for new long-distance equipment would come from. Budd would likely shut down any car production much earlier absent the Amfleet order, so you would have the same situation with perpetual rebuilding of '50s equipment that we now see in Canada.  A bit like the situation with B52 airframes, with all the mod cons for each new rider cohort going in at sequential major rebuildings.

Be interesting to see if subsequent governments revived the Johnson high-speed development program or a grant program to build high-speed rail solutions.  Or indeed re-establish a more coordinated network as demographics changed.

[KBCpresident]

If Amtrak had not been created in 1971, what do you think passenger rail in the United States would look like today? Would it exist at all? Do you think private passenger rail would still exist, or would all the Class Is have eventually abandoned passenger travel? If so, how long do you think they would have held out? 80s? 90s? I know my "what if" posts aren't all that popular, but I'm curious how people think that would have played out.