schlimm blue streak 1 If Amtrak could get enough LD coaches once the V-2 sleepers ( V-2 diners in service ) are in service the Palmetto could then be extended back to Tampa and Miami becoming a day train TPA - MIA ( Lv TPA 0700 - 0800 ) serving the cruise trade ? Could leave MIA late afternoon catching all cruise trade passengers. A long station stop at TPA could provide the necessary schedule recovery time especially southbound. It's a corridor. Run a service dedicated to it, with multiple trains per day, not some tack on to an LD train.
blue streak 1 If Amtrak could get enough LD coaches once the V-2 sleepers ( V-2 diners in service ) are in service the Palmetto could then be extended back to Tampa and Miami becoming a day train TPA - MIA ( Lv TPA 0700 - 0800 ) serving the cruise trade ? Could leave MIA late afternoon catching all cruise trade passengers. A long station stop at TPA could provide the necessary schedule recovery time especially southbound.
If Amtrak could get enough LD coaches once the V-2 sleepers ( V-2 diners in service ) are in service the Palmetto could then be extended back to Tampa and Miami becoming a day train TPA - MIA ( Lv TPA 0700 - 0800 ) serving the cruise trade ? Could leave MIA late afternoon catching all cruise trade passengers. A long station stop at TPA could provide the necessary schedule recovery time especially southbound.
It's a corridor. Run a service dedicated to it, with multiple trains per day, not some tack on to an LD train.
Can't do it with the 750 mile rule in place unless Florida pays for it.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
D.Carleton cudjoebob I'm surprised by the high numbers between the city pairs from TPA to MIA on the Silver Star. Could that mean that a Pacific Surfliner push-pull type operation, leaving TPA in the morning, returning to TPA in the evening, after a short layover in MIA, be a successful experiment? Been there, done that, sorta: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Palm_(train)#Intrastate_train
cudjoebob I'm surprised by the high numbers between the city pairs from TPA to MIA on the Silver Star. Could that mean that a Pacific Surfliner push-pull type operation, leaving TPA in the morning, returning to TPA in the evening, after a short layover in MIA, be a successful experiment?
Been there, done that, sorta: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Palm_(train)#Intrastate_train
Tried hard, didn't they. One round trip. 34 years ago. 10 Million residents then. 20 million residents now.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
cudjoebobI'm surprised by the high numbers between the city pairs from TPA to MIA on the Silver Star. Could that mean that a Pacific Surfliner push-pull type operation, leaving TPA in the morning, returning to TPA in the evening, after a short layover in MIA, be a successful experiment?
Not surprising to me... Florida is the 4th largest state and has been ripe for corridor service for a long time. Amtrak and Florida should have tried to develop service years ago. Now All Aboard Florida is doing it.
Editor Emeritus, This Week at Amtrak
Believe it might work very well. It appears to be a very tourist orientated run with off and ons big all the way from Palm Beach to MIAMI> The train south bound capable of carrying cruis ship passengers to various south Florida locations and departing late enough to carry away cruise ship passengers. Many non USA passenger potential.
Now just find the equipment and funding. Equipment ? Maybe the idle ElCapitain cars ? Locos ????
EDIT if could go down FEC from Palm beach to MIA Brightline station even better for cruise passengers. Or even better let Brightline operate the service. Once Brightline goes to Orlando airport then maybe Amtrak take it to Tampa ?
BaltACD schlimm Jim200 Very thoughtful and fact-filled post! You do realize Acela's food service does not use a traditional dining car? They use at-seat for 1st class and a cafe car for others (it becomes cashless on Jan. 16). The consultants and providers are different as well, possibly unrelated to Amtrak's commissary. https://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&cid=1241337915316 First class menus Cafe menu
schlimm Jim200 Very thoughtful and fact-filled post! You do realize Acela's food service does not use a traditional dining car? They use at-seat for 1st class and a cafe car for others (it becomes cashless on Jan. 16). The consultants and providers are different as well, possibly unrelated to Amtrak's commissary. https://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&cid=1241337915316 First class menus Cafe menu
Jim200
Very thoughtful and fact-filled post! You do realize Acela's food service does not use a traditional dining car? They use at-seat for 1st class and a cafe car for others (it becomes cashless on Jan. 16). The consultants and providers are different as well, possibly unrelated to Amtrak's commissary.
https://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&cid=1241337915316
First class menus
Cafe menu
Johnny
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Jim200High commissary costs and labor costs are still difficult to overcome, but cutting out the diner is not way to go. Business class and adding more sleepers when required would help. I have noticed that there are sleeper sell-outs even in the middle of the week and weeks ahead (non holiday). A radical solution would be to make everything business class and use the Acela food convention to make the long distance food loss disappear. Increasing the price to cover the food cost may be difficult.
V.Payne ...... The entire direct Food and Beverage cost of the Silver Star food service (diner and café) is $5.5 Million per Amtrak OIG (Page 4). So cutting a portion of the staff cannot exceed that amount. It would appear my cost estimate is roughly correct, though I could tell that the OIG reported labor numbers have some management costs baked into them that likely did not disappear with the cut, so cost recovery would decline logically. It has been said time and again, that the Total Cost numbers have no use in evaluating actual changes in service. They are allocations based upon dependent variables, and are in no way audited for accuracy. Further, Amtrak has stated they cannot provide Variable Cost route measurements in the monthly or even yearly reports, so why would they be able to do so now when Congress has required them by law to provide the results? Recall that even with the current relatively poor labor utilization arrangement on long distance trains, nearly all of the OBS labor is being covered with revenue, the big issue is dividing up $59.8 million in nearly fixed commissary costs, which are strangely disproportionally assigned to long distance trains, though the commissaries are shared with all trains and managed by Aramark. This all gets down to the reality that decreases in food service quality hurt ridership, up to 13%, based upon evidence when tried before in the early 1980’s. Degrading the service will not result in net savings.
......
The entire direct Food and Beverage cost of the Silver Star food service (diner and café) is $5.5 Million per Amtrak OIG (Page 4). So cutting a portion of the staff cannot exceed that amount. It would appear my cost estimate is roughly correct, though I could tell that the OIG reported labor numbers have some management costs baked into them that likely did not disappear with the cut, so cost recovery would decline logically.
It has been said time and again, that the Total Cost numbers have no use in evaluating actual changes in service. They are allocations based upon dependent variables, and are in no way audited for accuracy. Further, Amtrak has stated they cannot provide Variable Cost route measurements in the monthly or even yearly reports, so why would they be able to do so now when Congress has required them by law to provide the results?
Recall that even with the current relatively poor labor utilization arrangement on long distance trains, nearly all of the OBS labor is being covered with revenue, the big issue is dividing up $59.8 million in nearly fixed commissary costs, which are strangely disproportionally assigned to long distance trains, though the commissaries are shared with all trains and managed by Aramark.
This all gets down to the reality that decreases in food service quality hurt ridership, up to 13%, based upon evidence when tried before in the early 1980’s. Degrading the service will not result in net savings.
Fortunately in Table 1 we see that Operations didn't mess too much with the Acela and we see that the NEC made a little money on food and beverage. How did they do this? If we read further and subscript 8, we find that they made a convention to set the price equal to food prices in upscale hotels. In state sponsored routes, the states paid for food losses, except in a couple states, (subscript a), and there was a little loss. Notice that the Food and Beverage Revenue is a little over twice as much as Commissary Costs for NEC and state sponsored routes due to added revenue,(which should have subscripts explaining this).
On the long distance routes the Food and Beverage Revenue to Commissary Cost is about even because actual revenue from the meals is used. Thus almost all of the Food and Beverage Loss occurs on the long distance routes due to the revenue conventions used.
What would happen if Marketing was given control over sleeper food and beverage? They would be responsible for the travel experience expected by the sleeper passengers and written about by many here, and could increase the food quality to that of the Acela and price that accordingly. I can imagine a different menu without prices for these passengers, which would double the revenue for the 50% or more who eat in the diner. Marketing would have to figure out how to provide these exquisite meals and hold costs down or counter by raising prices somewhat. Milwaukee has suggested how to accomplish delicious food in another thread. Just by using the same convention as used by the Acela, the 2012 food and beverage loss for the long distance routes of 71.5 million could have been lowered to about 35 million.
High commissary costs and labor costs are still difficult to overcome, but cutting out the diner is not way to go. Business class and adding more sleepers when required would help. I have noticed that there are sleeper sell-outs even in the middle of the week and weeks ahead (non holiday). A radical solution would be to make everything business class and use the Acela food convention to make the long distance food loss disappear. Increasing the price to cover the food cost may be difficult.
XOTOWERThat is when a real leader would have rolled those trains in there. Why kow-tow to an arrogant Mayor acting like an arrpogant Mayor.
Time to learn how political entities work in the real world.
That is when a real leader would have rolled those trains in there. Why kow-tow to an arrogant Mayor acting like an arrpogant Mayor.
XOTOWER They will never get it. Its not about Amtrak or their operating loss per passenger mile. Its about what kind of country we want to have with what kind of transporation facilities. I dont care if they lose 4 cents or 44 cents. We need the system to be healthy. What happens when air traffic is grounded by whatever threat or computer glitch? Amtrak could have save lives during Katrina but bush was too stupid to use it.
They will never get it. Its not about Amtrak or their operating loss per passenger mile. Its about what kind of country we want to have with what kind of transporation facilities. I dont care if they lose 4 cents or 44 cents. We need the system to be healthy. What happens when air traffic is grounded by whatever threat or computer glitch? Amtrak could have save lives during Katrina but bush was too stupid to use it.
Thanks!!
So I should clarify after looking back at my notes that the source was the same report that the first post referenced, the Amtrak Monthly Performance Reports, but for September FY16. We have variously talked about the August and September reports in this thread.
The Amtrak Monthly Performance Report for August 2016, which covers 11 of the 12 months of the fiscal year and aligns closer to the drop of the diner provides this information:
Total Revenue decline is in Section C-3, Page 43 of the PDF, FY15 to FY16, summarized as $3.4 M
Sleeper Revenue decline is in Section A-3.5, Page 22 of the PDF, FY15 to FY16 is $7.556 M - $6.699 M = $0.857 M ($0.9 M)
(1-0.9/3.4) = 74% of the revenue decline is from coach class.
In the Amtrak Monthly Performance Report for September 2016 the following revenue values were reported for the full fiscal year, but this timeframe does not reflect the change point as accurately as the fiscal year does not align with the drop of the diner.
Total Revenue decline is in Section C-3, Page 43 of the PDF, FY15 to FY16, summarized as $3.7 M
Sleeper Revenue decline is in Section A-3.5, Page 22 of the PDF, FY15 to FY16 is $8.089 M - $7.125 M = $0.964 M ($1.0 M)
(1-1.0/3.7) = 73% of the revenue decline is from coach class.
So the sleeper revenue (I believe the accommodation charge only) was around 1/4th of the revenue drop, coach revenue drops made up the difference, some of that “coach” revenue is I believe the coach ticket one buys for sleeper class. However, conceptually there should be (2-4) more roomettes for sale so the coach revenue should be higher from sleeper passengers, but one could argue that trip length is lower.
So conservatively one could say at least 2/3rds or the revenue drop occurring around the time of the diner removal is from coach class if not 3/4ths.
If you want to squeeze into a bus, go ahead. As for me, I'll take a train any day!
It was noted on the first page of this thread...
"While the sleeper revenue declined by $0.964 Million, or about $47 per passenger, note that the overall coach revenue declined by $2.822 Million as well (perhaps with a portion of the coach revenue for sleeper passengers baked into the coach numbers)."
The numbers for coach revenue decline are actually 3/4ths of the total revenue decline as presented in the route reports, but I believe coach revenue also includes the coach fare of sleeper passengers, so I tried to be conservative with 2/3rds to not inflate the point of the arguement that more coach revenue was lost than sleeper revenue. Also, if you think about it they should be selling extra roomette rooms with fewer crews, so the sleeper revenue per room is less per room than just the ratio of revenue.
V.PayneYes, coach traffic is off as well and its loss makes up 2/3rds of the revenue decline, with coach diner patrons previously representing a bit less than half the patrons in the diner.
When you make quantifiable statements it is customary to give a citation or link.
Yes, coach traffic is off as well and its loss makes up 2/3rds of the revenue decline, with coach diner patrons previously representing a bit less than half the patrons in the diner.
If you think about this is similar to the Broadway to Three Rivers to sleeping on a bench in Pittsburg evolution of a devalued service, just no change in names yet.
Bottom line: Business on the Florida trains is off. Isn't the question of what happened to the coach traffic on the Star at least as interesting as the money saved on the diner?
Somebody suggested expanding the experiment to another LD route. Good plan; which one has traffic it can spare?
There is no attack against the legitimacy of that work by Amtrak's audit accountants, but their work does not contain route level costs!
The only Amtrak financial statements that are externally audited are helpfully labeled as Audited Consolidated Financial Statements – Fiscal Year 2015.
All the route level costs are based on a internal to Amtrak formula and are not audited by an external party. It is like a manufacturer who makes ovens and microwaves, who determines what each product costs using a formula, but the auditors only report how much it costs to run the overall factory by cost categories like labor not by product line.
Of course the difference is Amtrak is constantly trying to provide the least amount of service for their fixed subsidy, unwittingly it seems when they concentrate on infrastructure, which in and of itself provides no service to the public, whereas a manufacturer has a profit motive for production. The Legislature could reintroduce this by tying the subsidy to a fixed communter infrastructure amount and a variable by passenger mile operating subsidy.
All the unit values presented in the Appendix are found in other reports checked by the authorities that be (except food COGS) and are not of my own doing (though I back checked them). I only later refound the OIG report and suprisingly everything prorated after the fact within 10%.
I just applied the unit values to this situation with a bit of knowledge.
I plan to start a new post to expand on this...
“I will tell you, though, that generally, in retrospect, all of those (route) eliminations back in 1995 and 1996 ended up costing the company more in lost revenue than we were able to take out in the way of expenses, given the fixed cost nature of the operation.”
- Former Amtrak President Warrington, US Senate Testimony, 2000
V.PayneMy observation of this is that noboby has disputed the backcheck in the appendix provided above to show that $10+ million of cost reduction cannot possibly be from taking a single diner off a route, and not even Amtrak makes this claim, only the original post did.
Perhaps nobody disputed your backchecks in your appendix because it's mostly your inferred or extrapolated numbers based on your assumptions? You attack audited Amtrak financials with impugnity but present us with your assumptions dressed up to appear more authoritative. You've done the same thing with your "true"costs of driving in the past.
Had you read the OP more carefully you would see that the Star savings were never claimed to be wholly from dropping the diner.
I include your appendix for convenience.
Appendix – Check on Cost Savings claimed by NRPC for Silver Star FY16 vs. FY15:
Assuming the US average full time wage x 142 % the labor cost might be $1.815 Million a year (20 hours paid per one-way trip if correct).
Assuming $2000 per trip for the cost of goods sold for a cost of $1.461 Million a year.
Assuming that the staff is based from NYC the Miami layover cost might be $0.132 Million a year. If they were Miami based, then a step-off agreement near NYC would allow for a same day turn back.
Finding $1.151 Million a year in car related maintenance cost:
1. Using 0.2 gallons of diesel a car-mile from the Davis equation, acceleration energy, and HEP energy x $2 gallon (no road tax)
2. Using $0.35/car-mile for a prorating of overhauls and $0.27/car-mile for routine servicing and repairs.
Here is EY’s attest statement from its 2015 Amtrak Audit Report transmittal letter.
“In our opinion, the financial statements referred to above present fairly, in all material respects, the consolidated financial position of National Railroad Passenger Corporation and subsidiaries at September 30, 2015 and 2014, and the consolidated results of their operations and their cash flows for the years then ended in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.”
EY's opinion regarding Amtrak's financials statements is unqualified, but the auditor adds a clarifying note regarding Amtrak's status as an on-going entity:
“As explained in Notes 1 and 2 in the accompanying consolidated financial statements, the Company has a history of operating losses and is dependent upon substantial Federal Government subsidies to sustain its operations and maintain its underlying infrastructure………Without the receipt of Federal Government funding, the Company will not be able to continue in its current form and significant operating changes, restructurings, or bankruptcy might occur. Our opinion is not modified with respect to this matter."
The audit process is not perfect. Nor are the auditors. They make mistakes, with Enron being a classical example. Since the Enron debacle the accounting profession has taken steps to separate itself from its clients and to enhance the robustness of its audit standards and oversight of auditor processes. Also, the principle regulatory bodies (PCAOB, SEC, AICPA, IIA, etc.) have stiffened their oversight of the external and internal auditors.
To conclude that Amtrak’s financials or those of any other entity are suspect because of mistakes made many years ago by compromised auditors is without warrant.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
"The removal of the diner from the Silver Star appears to have been a major factor in producing a significant cost savings for the train in FY16."
A careful reading of the initial post shows no claim that removing the dining car from the Silver Star was the only factor that drove the 2016 cost reduction for the train.
This statement claimed removal of the dining car was a key change, but went also contained this clairification:
".....it is fair to say that removal of the dining car, while maybe not the only change, was the biggie."
It did not say that removal of the dining car was the only factor driving the cost reduction.
Without access to Amtrak's books an outsider does not know what other factors may have contributed to the cost savings.
Pretty sure that Audits do not mean the company is going to avoid bankruptcy their only purpose is to ascertain that generally accepted accounting methods and rules were used / applied and that the Financial Statements reflect accurately the state of the Company. I don't think anyone disputed the Financial Statements were accurate as to the financial condition of the company in Penn Centrals case. Enron in comparison was wildly off with their reporting of the financial condition of the company by Billions of dollars.
My observation of this is that noboby has disputed the backcheck in the appendix provided above to show that $10+ million of cost reduction cannot possibly be from taking a single diner off a route, and not even Amtrak makes this claim, only the original post did.
Afterwards contrary opinions decide to attack the person who is presenting the challenge, again without arguing the points presented both by backcheck analysis and the OIG report which said all food service on the Silver Star (cafe, diner, and commisary) cost $5.5 million.
Perhaps Mr. Frailey can ask Mr. Moorman (also an engineer with lots of cost analysis experience as a CEO) how exactly Amtrak got the cost reduction numbers in the route reports prior to his joining Amtrak, recalling the OIG report's Direct Cost numbers and some points from this discussion.
That would be interesting. Until then...
http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/observation-tower/archive/2014/10/24/amtrak-food-service-doesn-t-make-money-on-its-own-but-that-s-not-its-purpose.aspx
CMStPnP D.Carleton Enron's numbers were audited too. When you sign a Financial Statement as an Auditor the public presumes based on law that you are a independent auditor. If your a dependent auditor than your audit is open to questions of bias legally and ethically.
D.Carleton Enron's numbers were audited too.
When you sign a Financial Statement as an Auditor the public presumes based on law that you are a independent auditor. If your a dependent auditor than your audit is open to questions of bias legally and ethically.
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