Dakguy201 This thread started with the idea that additional capacity is needed from Minot eastward. What the ridership data presented above seems to say is that the capacity should be carried much further west that that, perhaps Whitefish. If you are going to add capacity that far west, you might as well go to Spokane as switching moved are required there anyway. The 900 pounder we aren't discussing is where additional the Superliners come from. Do you cannibalize another route? Are there unused transition cars that would allow the addition of low level cars? Can you improve the utilization of existing equipment? Would Congress pay for the purchase of additional high level equipment? Today's Newswire announces the appointment of an operations analysis specialist whose background is in the airline industry. We can hope that he addresses maximum utilization of the existing fleet forthwith.
This thread started with the idea that additional capacity is needed from Minot eastward. What the ridership data presented above seems to say is that the capacity should be carried much further west that that, perhaps Whitefish. If you are going to add capacity that far west, you might as well go to Spokane as switching moved are required there anyway.
The 900 pounder we aren't discussing is where additional the Superliners come from. Do you cannibalize another route? Are there unused transition cars that would allow the addition of low level cars? Can you improve the utilization of existing equipment? Would Congress pay for the purchase of additional high level equipment?
Today's Newswire announces the appointment of an operations analysis specialist whose background is in the airline industry. We can hope that he addresses maximum utilization of the existing fleet forthwith.
If Amtrak had a compelling case for additional equipment, it could arrange a lease for it in the capital markets. Unfortunately, making a strong case for additional equipment for a train that lost $59 million in FY12 before capital charges, especially for a country that is nearly $17 trillion in hawk, would be a difficult slog.
Comparing the cost of flying from Chicago to Minot or other smaller communities locations was just an example. To get a clear picture of all the cost comparisons one would have to cobble together hundreds of point pairs to get a complete picture. And he would need to include all modes of transport. Clearly, in many instances taking surface transportation from relatively close communities is more cost effective than flying, especially if one does not factor in a value to time.
From Spokane to Minot on the Empire costs $158. A flight on Frontier would cost $162.90. And a trip on Greyhound would be $99. The cost to fly from Spokane to Williston would be $295.77. The cost of a coach seat on the Builder would be $145.
Amtrak gets a direct cash subsidy from the federal government for each Builder passenger. The average subsidy in FY12 was 14.8 cents per passenger mile. Thus, from Spokane to Minot the subsidy was $138.97, whilst from Spokane to Minot it was $121.06. When added to the Builder's fares, the cost jumps from $158 and $145 to $296.97 and $266.06.
In FY11 29,920 passengers got on or off the Builder in Williston. In FY12 the number was 54,324 or an increase of 81.6 per cent. Amtrak's station activity numbers show passengers getting on and off the train. Thus, the average number of people getting off the Builder in Williston in was 20 per day in FY11 and 37 per day in FY12.
Amtrak does not disclose the demographics for the people riding the Empire Builder, other than to say that a high percentage of its long distance train passengers are seniors. How many of them were oil field workers is unknown. Undoubtedly, some oil field workers are taking the train. And the number has increased.
Unless one takes a valid statistic sample of the people getting off the Empire Builder at the "oil field" stops, how many of them are oil field workers remains unknown. The larger question is what percentage of the oil field workers travel to the "oil fields" by the Empire Builder?
If Amtrak had a solid case for increasing the capacity of the Empire Builder, it could go to its lenders and secure quickly funding for additional equipment. Until the new or refurbished cars were available, it probably could use a car off the Auto Train for the summer months or the coverage car that is spotted in San Antonio to for a late running Sunset Limited or a similar car in Fort Worth for the Heartland Flyer. It could even run special trains if there was enough demand for it. I suspect the demand is not there.
Dakguy201 I'm with Sam in wondering if there is much market here. Recently I rode the Empire Builder and observed the oil patch in North Dakota (seemingly forever). I saw many travel trailer parks and modular temporary housing developments. Many of these did not appear to be in incorporated areas and were accessable only by rural road. I don't think life in such places is feasible without a private vehicle.
I'm with Sam in wondering if there is much market here. Recently I rode the Empire Builder and observed the oil patch in North Dakota (seemingly forever). I saw many travel trailer parks and modular temporary housing developments. Many of these did not appear to be in incorporated areas and were accessable only by rural road. I don't think life in such places is feasible without a private vehicle.
Mark Meyer
Sam1 The cost of a coach seat on the Builder from Chicago to Minot is $318 return. The cost to fly return is $406. The train takes approximately 18 hours, 20 minutes. Flying takes 3 hours, 45 minutes. If the train traveler eats in the lounge car, it will set him back approximately $40, thereby bringing the cost of the train travel to $358.
The cost of a coach seat on the Builder from Chicago to Minot is $318 return. The cost to fly return is $406. The train takes approximately 18 hours, 20 minutes. Flying takes 3 hours, 45 minutes. If the train traveler eats in the lounge car, it will set him back approximately $40, thereby bringing the cost of the train travel to $358.
I've noticed this is typical of many of Sam1's postings. He quotes rail and airfares where air service is fairly direct. The reality is that Amtrak is fantastically cheaper to travel to and from Minot/Williston than would be air service to/from places like La Crosse, Fargo, Havre, Whitefish, and Spokane, and to/from places like Sandpoint and Libby, where Williston is THE major destination, and air service is higher than Amtrak by a factor of about infinity because there is no air service.
Sam1 A few oil field workers might take the train to Minot. Knowing some of the workers in the Eagle Ford operations (San Antonio), which are relatively close to where I live, I doubt it would be many.
A few oil field workers might take the train to Minot. Knowing some of the workers in the Eagle Ford operations (San Antonio), which are relatively close to where I live, I doubt it would be many.
True. I doubt if many of the oil workers, per se, are from Chicago, though some workers in associated jobs might be. In any case, they would drive if they have the time or fly if they only have a few days off.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Sam1 A few oil field workers might take the train to Minot. Knowing some of the workers in the Eagle Ford operations (San Antonio), which are relatively close to where I live, I doubt it. Most of these folks are relatively young. They will drive to the fields or fly. If the North Dakota oil fields are anything like the Eagle Ford and west Texas ones, which are booming, many of the workers will tow a RV trailer to the work-site so that they will have a place to live.
A few oil field workers might take the train to Minot. Knowing some of the workers in the Eagle Ford operations (San Antonio), which are relatively close to where I live, I doubt it. Most of these folks are relatively young. They will drive to the fields or fly. If the North Dakota oil fields are anything like the Eagle Ford and west Texas ones, which are booming, many of the workers will tow a RV trailer to the work-site so that they will have a place to live.
There may be some travel by oilfield workers to visit their families, but I'd guess that travel is more likely north/south than east/west as families are likely to be located near traditional oil producing areas.
The Texas Eagle switches two cars to or from the Sunset Limited at San Antonio. It is done without a switcher. The cars are at the end of their respective trains. At San Antonio the westbound Sunset Limited, for example, backs down and couples onto the two transfer cars from the Eagle. The process is reversed for the eastbound train.
In FY12 the average load factor for the long distance trains was 62.4 per cent. The average load factor for the Empire Builder was 61.5 per cent. Undoubtedly the train is sold out on some days, especially during the busy summer and holiday travel seasons. Whether there is enough spillover, i.e. a person who wanted space and could not get it, to justify another car is unknown.
The westbound train has coach seats on ten different bookings from Chicago to Minot that I ran from August 28th through September 28th, although the lower level coach seats were sold out on two of the dates. Roomettes were available for all 10 bookings, but the bedrooms were sold out on several days. The cost of the roomettes ranged from $356 to $408. One could get a very good hotel room for that amount of money.
A few oil field workers might take the train to Minot. Knowing some of the workers in the Eagle Ford operations (San Antonio), which are relatively close to where I live, I doubt it would be many. Most of these folks are relatively young. They will drive to the fields or fly. If the North Dakota oil fields are anything like the Eagle Ford and west Texas ones, which are booming, many of the workers will tow a RV trailer to the work-site so that they will have a place to live.
The Builder already uses an extra Superliner coach on the Chicago/Twin Cities portion of the run. I took a look at the timetable with the thought of extending it to Minot, but that can't be done without additional equipment.
I don't think attaching single level cars to the Superliner consists is practical without modifying one end of some of them to mate with the Superliners. Perhaps that could be done, but I suspect the cost would be substantial.
One potential solution might be better equipment utilization, but I don't think any of us have enough data to make an informed judgment on this matter. The reason for mentioning this is that recently the eastbound Builder was 10 hours late into Chicago due to an accident, but the Superliner trains departing Chicago after it's scheduled arrival (the Capitol and the City) went out on time. What that indicates to me is that the cars from the Builder consist normally sit in Chicago from 3:55pm until at least 1:45pm the following day when the Eagle departs.
In the end I guess we're stuck in the same old place -- Amtrak as a stand alone entity doesn't generate sufficient income to order new equipment, so any addition has to come from the taxpayers.
Streak,
Don't forget about a switcher at Minot to cut the cars in and out and constructing a connection for car heat plus a contract for coach cleaners.
Mac
Sucessfully got reservations on the Builder however many days were full. There appears to be capacity problems CHI - Minot (MOT) maybe due to oil field workers. As of now Amtrak does not have any spare equipment. Maybe some Comet-1Bs could take up some slack just as they are in California.
OK how to pay for the $1.2 M per car upgrades ? It might be that the oil patch companys could pay for the car upgrades and sell the seats directly to their workers? If Amtrak did the upgrades in an expedited rate at Beexch Grove maybe he first 3 - 4 needed cars could be in service in 6 months ? Weekends appeared to have the greatest demand so maybe workers from CHI on Friday & SAT and MOT SAT & Sun could start out this service ?
Naturally the additional locos needed might be a problem ? If the bookings were sufficient then maybe more days as well ?
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