With all of the bad news about Amtrak (at least on this website) we do need to remember that all of the news is not bad. For example, here are some historic and recent ridership statistics:
1972, Amtrak's first full year of operation, there were about 16 million passenters. (All years are fiscal years). By 1980 the number of riders had grown to about 21 million and it hovered around 20 million for 20 years. Then it began to rise:
2001, 2 and 3 22 million passengers
2004 23 " "
2005 and 06 24 " "
2007 26 " "
2008 29 " "
2009 27 " "
2010 29 " "
2011 30 " "
2012 31 " "
These increases are mostly due to the Northeast Corridor and to increased intercity ridership around Chicago and the west coast.
In 1980 the US population was 226,545,805; Amtrak carried 21,406,768 passengers
In 2012 it was 312,780,968, which is a 38% increase; Amtrak = .31,240,565, an increase of 40%. So I guess that is really impressive, slightly exceeding population growth.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Schlimm::
A better comparsion is 2001, 2002, 2003 to today. 1980 - 2000 appered to be flat due to being artifically constrained by various factors including Congress, lack of maintenance, and Heruitage passengeer equipment ?
Thank you but these numbers mean nothing. All this shows are the numbers of people who bought a ticket. If one owned a grocery store and counted only the number of people who came through the registers it would not tell the story. If 1000 customers came and only purchased one pack of gum each the 1000 number quickly slips into irrelevance.
The real number, at least for the purpose of transportation, is passenger miles. In FY 1990 Graham Claytor pegged Amtrak's passenger miles at 6.1 billion. According to the Federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2011 Pocket Guide to Transportation Amtrak was at 6,179,000,000 passenger miles. Not much of a difference for two decades, is it.
Editor Emeritus, This Week at Amtrak
I don't agree. Amtrak exists to serve people, and the number of individual journeys is, to me, a better indication of its usefulness than passenger miles. But I sm glad that that figure also exceeded pop growth.
Both statistics are useful. Passenger head counts, as John posted and Dave Klepper pointed out are useful because they give a sense of the public served. It sgould be pointed out, as has been before, that Amrak shows boardings and alightings, while an airline count for passengers is departures only. Thus to compare, one should cut Amtrak's number in half. For 2012, that would be Amtrak 15.5 million, airlines 650 million. Passenger miles are simply a different statistic derived by combining distance with number served. To claim passenger counts "mean nothing" is inflammatory and displays a lack of knowledge about statistics.
schlimmSo I guess that is really impressive, slightly exceeding population growth.
Schlimm,
I believe a large part of passenger growth over more than the last decade is the introduction of inter-city routes on Amtrak. Generally, these routes are funded by the states served rather than the Federal government. As I recall you are one of several people on this site who has argues that Amtrak should look to have more state funded inter-city routes. Certainly the statistics point to the validity of that argument and also point to Amtrak's acceptance of it.
Actually Amtrak growth does not track population growth. If you look at the statistics ridership was fairly flat at about 20 million people per year for many years despite population growth; then it began an upward climb.
Given the current debate in Congress over Amtrak funding it seems to me that having individual states provide funding apart from the Federal government is desirable. Do you agree?
John
D.CarletonThank you but these numbers mean nothing.
D. Carlton,
I have to disagree with your point that the total number of people Amtrak serves means "nothing." (The emphasis is yours). That is not the only measure and yes, passenger miles are important too. But people served are important. You attribute the increase--from 20 million to 31 million riders--to people making extremely short trips, for example riding Amtrak from New York Penn Station to Newark Liberty Airport. But is there any evidence to support your allegation? I am skeptical because very often there is less expensive transportation for short trips such as commuter rail or buses. But if you do have evidence it would be helpful if you could share it with us.
PS. Since you were good enough to read my post I though I should acquaint myself with some of your writing. I read your last column, especially the part about Amtrak since 1993. You observe that railroads are a classic case of an enterprise that requires long term planning while "politics" is focused on the short term. I would clarify that comment. In the United States the term of a member of the House of Representatives is limited to 2 years. That is certainly a "short term" and that is why our Federal politics are focused on the short term. House members always need to be preparing for the next election. And since all money bills originate in the house it guarantees that anything requiring an appropriation will be considered in the short term and things may be very different in the next short term than in this short term. But it is a lot easier to block legislation than it is to originate and pass legislation. Once a law is enacted the very short term nature of the House makes it difficult (but not impossible) to change that law. One result is that it is hard to get rid of Amtrak but it is also hard to adapt Amtrak to changing national needs. Amtrak has responded to this by working with states to provide state services funded independently of the Federal government and one result of that effort is the increase in the number of passengers in recent years from about 20 million to 31 million. It seems to me that is not a total failure.
Ever since the end of the Civil War US railroads have been as much about politics and government as they have been about operating trains. There is no disrespect to Graham Claytor in saying both remain important for both freight rail and passenger rail.
schlimmIt sgould be pointed out, as has been before, that Amrak shows boardings and alightings, while an airline count for passengers is departures only.
My only point here is that the statistics I offer are described as Passengers Carried on Amtrak Trains. My source is Wikipedia. Here is the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amtrak.
In Amtrak's state fact sheets the number of people using each station are reported and the number includes "boardings and alightings." Here, however, the number used is "passengers carried."
It is a good question: what is the operational definition? Amtrak (and the Wiki article) seem to use both terms, ridership and passengers carried. And yes the state fact sheets give ridership as total station boardings and alightings. But I am inclined to believe you are correct, since the Illinois number alone for 2012 was 5 million.
John WR With all of the bad news about Amtrak (at least on this website) we do need to remember that all of the news is not bad. For example, here are some historic and recent ridership statistics: 1972, Amtrak's first full year of operation, there were about 16 million passenters. (All years are fiscal years). By 1980 the number of riders had grown to about 21 million and it hovered around 20 million for 20 years. Then it began to rise: 2001, 2 and 3 22 million passengers 2004 23 " " 2005 and 06 24 " " 2007 26 " " 2008 29 " " 2009 27 " " 2010 29 " " 2011 30 " " 2012 31 " " These increases are mostly due to the Northeast Corridor and to increased intercity ridership around Chicago and the west coast.
You have to be really careful with the numbers. Passenger count is not "nothing" nor is it everything. The trick here is to "same store sales" split out. Amtrak gained and lost some commuter business along the way - dropped and added trains and routes, etc.
You sorta-kinda can split out ridership by route since the Gunn era, but we have zilch before that - you have to know when the big service changes occurred and do some factoring.
I am more interested in Amtrak's effectiveness - that is subsidy $ per passenger mile - in constant dollars. Anyone want to take a crack at that one?
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
oltmanndI am more interested in Amtrak's effectiveness - that is subsidy $ per passenger mile - in constant dollars. Anyone want to take a crack at that one?
Maybe Sam1 can rise to the task.
oltmanndYou have to be really careful with the numbers.
We--not just me but all of us--should be really careful with all of our posts, Don. I often wish no one would write posts others may find offensive but that has not happened yet. But if we are not going to use numbers, actual statistics about Amtrak, on what shall we base our discussions?
As I wrote this post I was aware no one set of statistics shows the whole picture. Others deserve consideration too. But I did think this particular set was worth taking a little time to focus on.
You say you are interested in Amtrak's "effectiveness." Yet I wonder if there is any single measure that will show it. Today we have the Acela, the Northeast Corridor regional trains, the long distance trains, the Amtrak run commuter trains and the intercity trains, many (or perhaps all) of which get state support so it seems to me there are 5 Amtraks. And yet, they are bound up with each other and each has implicatons for the others.
You can certainly argue that some parts of Amtrak are more effective than other parts and in fact you have made that argument. I don't disagree with you but I have made the argument that cutting back on any one part can have undesirable consequences for other parts because of the politics of Amtrak's budgetary process.
Maybe we should compare the figures as Amtrak now publishes them. ie NEC, Short haul, & long haul. It may not be possible but the number of passengers, number of passenger miles, Train miles for each of these categorgies ?
it would be great if we could have 20 years of figures to see where the growth is. Don Oltmann thinks mostly NEC and some of the shorter state corridors. I believe that is true, but I've never actually seen those numbers: passengers carried, passenger miles and maybe train miles. I wonder how useful the latter is, however. i would prefer to see the trend lines on operating subsidy (or positive contribution) by segment and average occupancy numbers.
schlimm it would be great if we could have 20 years of figures to see where the growth is. Don Oltmann thinks mostly NEC and some of the shorter state corridors.
it would be great if we could have 20 years of figures to see where the growth is. Don Oltmann thinks mostly NEC and some of the shorter state corridors.
The largest growth in Amtrak ridership comes from the state and short/medium distance corridors. This includes the 3 CA corridors, Cascades, the Miwest corridors, and the eastern trains ranging from the Downeaster, Keystones, Empire Service, Virginia Regionals, Piedmonts, etc. The NEC has seen growth as well. The growth has been in the past 10 years after decades of stagnation with ridership growth from FY2002 (21.67 million) to FY2013 (31.24 million) ahead of US population growth.
The 31.24 million passengers in FY2012 is the total number of passengers that boarded an Amtrak train. The station stats show boarding plus alightings to count the total number going through the station. If one were to add up all the station passenger counts, the total would be twice 31.2 million.
The breakdown of the ridership stats is publicly available. Comparing fiscal years 2002 and 2012 in millions:
FY2002: NEC 9.14M, State & Short/medium distance corridors 8.91M, LD 3.62M; total 21.67M
FY2012: NEC 11.42M, State & Short/medium distance 15.08M, LD 4.74M
Growth on the LD trains the past several years is being held by lack of capacity for the peak travel periods. Also the problem with the Acela. That is why Amtrak is considering adding 4 coach seats in the upper level of each Superliner coach car to squeeze out a bit more capacity and revenue for the western LD trains. And planning to order Acela IIs to deal with the Acela capacity constraints.
Alan F: Thank you for clarification/confirmation on the passenger stat and the comparative growth rates.
While passenger miles are a useful metric for evaluating one mode of transportation against itself, it is not an appropriate standard for "effectiveness" when considering transportation spending overall. The reason for this is that different types of transportation investment equate to different outcomes both in cost and, separately, in the type lifestyles they sponsor.
As many have pointed out, Amtrak's growth has mostly come in the commuter area. This is largely due to the increase in urban population over the last 10 years. Growth in this category feeds on itself- as mass transit becomes more available, more people move to urban areas and utilize the system.
The critical part of this to consider is that these are people who previously would have lived in suburbs and used roads and highways for most of their transportation needs. As they begin to populate urban areas and switch from highway to rail, their personal "passenger miles" are reduced. This happens not just because their commute is shorter, but because city dwellers tend to drive a lot less generally.
So it's possible that even if Amtrak's passenger mile price is higher, their overall effectiveness per dollar is better (than roads) because of the fact that fixed rail transit tends to concentrate populations -thereby reducing total passenger miles while still serving the same population.
snaremattSo it's possible that even if Amtrak's passenger mile price is higher, their overall effectiveness per dollar is better (than roads) because of the fact that fixed rail transit tends to concentrate populations -thereby reducing total passenger miles while still serving the same population.
Your point goes beyond interesting.
I grew up in the suburbs. Every place we went my parents drove. The only exception I can think of is Boy Scouts where I walked. Then I grew up and for many years had no car. Living in the city I planned on public transit. Generally my wife and I walked to the supermarket and used transit for shopping. For longer trips we took the train or, for really long trips, we took a plane. Occasionally we rented a car. But we did much less traveling, especially long distance traveling, because we did not need to.
Then we bought a car. And we moved out. Now we had to drive to the supermarket when ever we went there and other shopping was at shopping centers because parking was easier. Even if down town was closer we drove out to a shopping center to park. And of course down towns withered a way. The whole thing was a self fulfilling prophecy.
My last house was the nicest one I ever owned. And it was 35 minutes from the closest bus stop--I still used transit for work. Walking was not impossible but almost always my wife met me with the car and drove me home. Our present home is smaller than our last one. But it is 3 blocks from the bus to get to a variety of places including the local commuter train to get into New York Penn Station to take Amtrak to Providence or Newark Penn Station to take Amtrak to Washington. The super market is 3 blocks away too but old habits die hard. We still drive.
snaremattAs many have pointed out, Amtrak's growth has mostly come in the commuter area. [my emphasis] This is largely due to the increase in urban population over the last 10 years. Growth in this category feeds on itself- as mass transit becomes more available, more people move to urban areas and utilize the system.
I have seen several mentions of this, but as John WR also asks, what is the evidence in actual Amtrak reports? Links?
John WRI grew up in the suburbs.
Similar to my experience, but the Chicago suburbs. The commuter rail (CA&E and later CNW) into the Loop, car to other towns, local malls, etc.
schlimmevidence in actual Amtrak reports? Links?
http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/178/1001/Amtrak-Ridership-Growth-First-Six-Months-%20FY2013-ATK-13-031.pdf
snarematt schlimmevidence in actual Amtrak reports? Links? http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/178/1001/Amtrak-Ridership-Growth-First-Six-Months-%20FY2013-ATK-13-031.pdf
Information regarding Amtrak's ridership and revenues can be found in the Monthly Operating Reports. For 2012 and 2011 the keying page is A.3.0. Tables containing ridership and revenues by route begin on Page A3.4 or thereabouts. Be sure not to confuse the monthly statistics with the YTD stats, which in September represent the numbers for Amtrak's fiscal year.
Amtrak counts passengers by the number of tickets that it lifts. If a person buys a ticket and subsequently cancels the trip, he is not counted as a passenger. Amtrak has probably increased the accuracy of its passenger count recently because of the use of bar code scanners, which are less susceptible to error.
Amtrak's fact sheets report the number of passengers getting on and off its trains at its stations. Also, the number of passengers is not the number of customers. Accordingly, it is not possible from the numbers Amtrak gives us to know if the increase in riders was an increase in customers, or if existing customers took more trains trips, or a combination thereof.
Month to month increases in ridership are not helpful. As is the case with financial analysts, who use a variety of metrics to evaluate the financial health of a business, one should look for rider and revenue trends over at least one or two years. Five years is preferable. That is what financial analysts do.
Amtrak's total ridership increased 3.54 per cent in FY12 compared to FY11 and 5.1 per cent in FY11 compared to FY10. Revenues increased 6.8 per cent in FY12 compared to FY11 and 8.5 per cent in FY11 compared to FY10. One possibility for the variance may be that Amtrak's ticket price yields are higher, i.e. passengers are pay more for transport than was the case in prior years.
In FY12 ridersiip on the NEC increased by 4.8 per cent, compared to 3.8 per cent for the state supported trains and 5.1 per cent for the long distance trains. In FY11 the increases were 5.1, 6.5, and 1.1. According to the Brookings Institute's study A New Alignment.........the bulk of growth in Amtrak's ridership has occurred in the NEC and state support corridors. The growth rates can vary significantly from reporting period to reporting period.
A key factor in evaluating growth rates is to understand the starting or base point. If Amtrak, with roughly 31 million passengers, increases its ridership by 3 million passengers, it has realized a 9.7 per cent increase in ridership. If the airlines, which enplaned 731,124,287 passengers in FY12 (BTS Domestic Airport Boardings for Commercial......), had an increase of three million passengers, the increase would be .41 or 41/100s of one per cent. The commercial airline boardings increased by approximately 6 million in FY12 compared to FY11, but it was only an .86 per cent increase. So, a reader of the Brookings Institute Report, which claims that Amtrak has been growing at a faster rate than the nation's other commercial carriers, should keep the base line in mind.
If a person invested in a security because the company's sales and revenues had increased dramatically over the last decade, without looking at the other key indicators, he might be in for an ugly surprise. The company could be buying market share and be on the verge of bankruptcy. It is important to look at all of Amtrak's key metrics. Increases in riders and revenues is only a very small part of its operating and financial performance.
schlimm I look at those reports most months.
Do you also read them?
The report clearly states that ridership on short distance trains is up and despite Sandy, ridership is expected to grow for the N.E. corridor as well.
If you're confused about how the term "commuter" could relate short distance trains here's a wiki on the subject https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_rail
If you want evidence of urbanization, google 2010 census.
If you want more info, i'd suggest hiring a research assistant.
schlimmSimilar to my experience, but the Chicago suburbs.
If you will humor me for a little personal history, Schlimm, I grew up in the suburbs south of Providence, RI. Up until I was 10 years old or so all I knew was automobiles. Then a playmate, Ann Marie, told me about the bus to Providence. She explained I could go by myself any time I wanted and all I had to do was to take the bus to the end of the line in downtown Providence. I asked my Mom and, on a day off from school, went into "the city" where I met my Aunt. We had lunch and I came home. I was hooked. In junior high school I began going to the Providence Library from time to time and after high school I went to college in Providence for a while. By that time I had a few train trips to Boston. For about 15 years I did not have the money to even think about a car so public transportation was all I had. Then I got my first job and my wife and I bought a car but I left it home for her and continued to ride the bus to work. Almost all of my life I continued to ride a bus or a train to work. Now I'm retired and when I go somewhere alone I still ride the bus and train if it is at all possible.
I sometimes wonder what happened to Ann Marie. I wish I could go back and thank her for starting me on this path.
snarematt schlimm I look at those reports most months. Do you also read them? The report clearly states that ridership on short distance trains is up and despite Sandy, ridership is expected to grow for the N.E. corridor as well. If you're confused about how the term "commuter" could relate short distance trains here's a wiki on the subject https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_rail If you want evidence of urbanization, google 2010 census. If you want more info, i'd suggest hiring a research assistant.
Thank you for your insight, Sam. I especially appreciate your observation that we don't know the extent to which passenger counts on trains (or any other kind of transportation) represent repeat passengers or new passengers. For Amtrak and airlines it would be possible to collect such information but I don't know whether it is collected or not.
And I agree that no single set of statistics can give the complete picture. However, to give all the relevant statistics in one or two posts is pretty daunting. I think it is an issue of seeing statistics for what they are and not more than they are.
Yes, because airlines carry so many more people than trains I would not expect the same proportionate increases in passenger numbers. Because planes go places trains cannot possibly go (such as across oceans) I think there is an aspect of apples and oranges in any comparison. Also, at least on the east coast, many planes operate with full loads of passengers so they really cannot take increased numbers of passengers.
Finally, while all of Amtrak's metrics are important I have not heard any suggestion of deliberately misrepresenting any statistics by Amtrak.
schlimm I will concede that some people ride Amtrak daily, in the NEC
some people? Apparently, it's quite a few people (more every year).
My point wasn't about syntax, that was your point. My point was about people increasingly choosing to live in urban areas and that choice being supported by Amtrak.
Regardless of if people ride it every day, every week, or if they call it short distance or commuter service, these trains are making it easier to live in cities without the aid of an automobile. I'm going to guess that people who don't own a car tend to drive less (do I need a citation for that too?) and therefore are involved in less "passenger miles".
So again, if we want an efficient system that reduces the total cost, we have to look at the total picture, and that includes the lifestyle of transit users.
I don't think it is possible to draw a sharp distinction between what is and is not commuter service. People will ride relatively long distance trains for short distances and do so repeatedly; there are those who do that with Amtrak between New York and Philadelphia. Other people will use New Jersey Transit and SEPTA for the same trip. And Joe Biden regularly commuted between Washington, DC and Wilmington, Delaware on the Acela.
At the same time a train some people think of as a commuter train can be simply one leg of a much longer journey. For example, many people take the Princeton Branch (commonly known as the Dinky), a 2.7 mile line, to connect with one of Amtrak's long distance trains. People who live along a "commuter" line often find it convenient to take that to transfer to Amtrak.
Individual people use trains according to their needs without paying attention to whether they ride a long distance train or commuter train. Amtrak sells monthly tickets between any two stations which are obviously aimed at commuters.
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