Very interesting comments by all. Never thought about airlines having a shortage of pilots/employees, but railroads are running into this and so is the construction industry. A young friend attended a charter high school run by our local chapter of the Associated General Contractors and it was set up for that reason-to get young people interested in construction as a career. He was already interested and it led to some valuable contacts and also his getting a college degree in Construction Management, which led to his job for commercial HVAC company.
I'm sure the airlines will figure something out, they will want to keep flying. Question is will the average consumer be able able to afford it.
More info:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203937004578079391643223634.html
"Mr. Darby's firm calculates that all U.S. airlines, including cargo, charter and regional carriers, together employ nearly 96,000 pilots, and will need to find more than 65,000 over the next eight years. In the past eight years, not quite 36,000 pilots have passed the Federal Aviation Administration's highest test, the Air Transport Pilot exam, which all pilots would have to pass under the congressionally imposed rules."
"At California Flight Academy in El Cajon, Calif., the rolls are full, but almost entirely with foreign students who will soon return to their home countries. "We don't have locals learning to fly anymore," said Ash Dakwar, the academy's operations chief. While no one tracks overall attendance at the nation's 3,400 flight schools, FAA data show annual private and commercial pilot certificates—both required to become an airline pilot—are down 41% and 30%, respectively, in the past decade. The National Association of Flight Instructors, in a research paper published this year, said that "there is no feasible way…to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers.""
Looks like a pretty large shortage coming, given an even greater demand from foreign airlines, especially Asian.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Here's Delta's current minimum requirements to be considered:
When evaluating the flight time of applicants meeting the basic qualifications, consideration will be given to, among other things, quality, quantity, recency, and verifiability of training; complexity of aircraft flown; types of flight operations; and hours flown as PIC in turbine powered aircraft. Applicants invited to interview must provide appropriate documentation of all flight hours.
n012944 . A pilot who is hired by the airline gets almost a year of training before they start flying, no matter if they were flying B52s over Iraq, cancelled checks in the middle of the night, or as a flight instructor flying 172s.
. A pilot who is hired by the airline gets almost a year of training before they start flying, no matter if they were flying B52s over Iraq, cancelled checks in the middle of the night, or as a flight instructor flying 172s.
What airlines ? Been in the business a long time and the most training was about 2- 1/2 months or you are gone.
schlimm The "let the military train our pilots" semi-subsidy for the airlines has been drying up b/c we have a much smaller AF and Navy the last 20 years or so. The majority of Delta pilots, for example, were ex-Navy, at least in the past. The shortage is worldwide because of globalization.
The "let the military train our pilots" semi-subsidy for the airlines has been drying up b/c we have a much smaller AF and Navy the last 20 years or so. The majority of Delta pilots, for example, were ex-Navy, at least in the past. The shortage is worldwide because of globalization.
A pilot who is hired by the airline gets almost a year of training before they start flying, no matter if they were flying B52s over Iraq, cancelled checks in the middle of the night, or as a flight instructor flying 172s. There is no "semi-subsidy" about it.
The real issue is the fact that for the last 10 years, the airline industy did not look like a good choice for a career. People who would have gone to get their pilots license and get jobs as pilots did not, not knowing if they would have a job at the end of school. The market will correct itself in a couple of years, and the shortage will be a surplus.
Emeby Riddle Aeronautical is already getting more students,
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20121217006355/en/Fitch-Upgrades-Embry-Riddle-Aeronautical-Univ-FL-Revs
"ERAU relies heavily on student-generated revenues with enrollment growth in recent years fueling financial gains."
An "expensive model collector"
Where did the reporter get the ludicrous idea that the airlines are incapable of training new pilots?
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
More info on another reason that there will be fewer pilots in the future.
http://www.njherald.com/story/20573058/up-up-and-away-small-airports-are-disappearing
Firelock76He started recruiting replacements from the local high schools,
I don't know about other places but in New Jersey many high schools have distributive education programs. As part of their education pupils are placed in positions in local businesses as a learning experience. It is a good program.
Thanks, Mac!
I think you make some valid points. For a long time the US Military and Other Nations, as well, I would suspect. Trained pilots and got them lots of flying. From time to time sever cutbacks in personnel ( most likely, due to political solutions in time when funding was an issue.) Probably caused former military pilots to cycle into Commercial Aviation. More recently, the pay scales were somewhat better than in previous years on the military side..not to mention the on-going conflicts in the Middle East which ate up military airlift capacity(?).
http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/PilotShortageOrAirlineHype_207684-1.html
The linked site gives credence to your points about the pilot shortages..
Mac: ((PNWRMNM ) wrote:"...The airlines will not willingly go out of business for lack of pilots. They will increase pay to draw and hold pilots and will figure out how to train or help train new pilots. In short, the market will work..."
Your statement aove is, I think, spot on. When it finally gets down to having flight crews for Commercial Aviation. The airlines will pony up the wages to get the crews. They may not be able to fly as many fights with the frequency of today's levels=, but they will have seats available...For a price. Whether the Public will pay for that capacity, would remain to be seen. Business Travel, is another issue of need vs. cost.
Which brings me to the AMTRAK capacity, will they be able to buy the extra capacity needed from the freight railroads ? We both agree that in the areas where AMTRAK needs exceed the speed and capacity of the existing lines, AMTRAK will have to poney up the monies for increases in the existing rail network to give them the capacity to run trains ( and probably more eqipment ) . Crewing may become the issue in that situation as well. (?)
Not quite the same thing, but close to it: About a year ago I read a story on NorthJersey.com about a gent who owns a metal fabrication business. Seems one day he had a good look at his work force and had a "Holy Jeez!" moment. Looking at all the gray hair he realized he was going to lose his workers to retirement within the next five to ten years. What to do?
A pretty good solution, if you ask me. He started recruiting replacements from the local high schools, realizing not everyone is college material, and quite a few young men (let's be fair here, probably young women too) HATE being in the classroom and love working with their hands, According to the article, it looked like he was having some success.
The point is, here was a man who was realist enough to know that he was going to have to cut into his profit margin for a time (recruiting and training) to ensure his business would survive long term. What's the saying that a lot of people have forgotten? "Sometimes you gotta spend money to make money."
Sam,
I would not accept the premise of the original story, that there will be a pilot shortage. This is an example of somebody planting a story with an economically ignorant journalist who swallows the story as presented.
That said, of course the military has been a handy training ground for airline pilots, but it would be interesting to see real data on absolute numbers and percentages, say since 1955. I suspect military contribution has been decling for a long time and if I were running an airline I would expect it to continue to decline.
The airlines will not willingly go out of business for lack of pilots. They will increase pay to draw and hold pilots and will figure out how to train or help train new pilots. In short, the market will work.
As to substantailly increasing ATK presence on frieight railroads, that will be seriously constrained by existing capacity constraints on most main lines. The freight carriers will not invest to support ATK, and thankfully the law does not require them to do so. That means ATK will have to fund capacity improvements needed to create the additional capacity that ATK would require. That would be frightfully expensive, far more than the additional cost of training pilots.
In short, this is another bit of "chicken little" journalism best ignored.
Mac
BaltACD US travelers want to travel for next to nothing. Travel providers (all of them) want to pay their employees next to nothing. Everything seems in balance for implosion.
US travelers want to travel for next to nothing.
Travel providers (all of them) want to pay their employees next to nothing.
Everything seems in balance for implosion.
Balt:
Since you work for a railroad. I am curious to know:
A.) If the airlines cut back on flights ( intra-City/Intra-USA) What happens to that pent-up to travel in the USA? Is there enough capacity in the American Rail System to host the extra trains?
B.) Do you think there are enogh extra personnel to crew those additional trains, IF The railroads would host them?
C.) How long would it take AMTRAK to ramp up their services to fit the needs of the traveling public?
D.) Do you think the railroads would be up to the task before AMTRAK?
Would AMTRAK just go away in the face of the task of moving rail passengers?
Would the whole situation for rail travel; in the USA, just go" TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET?"
Thanks!
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
CSSHEGEWISCH MidlandMike Airlines are already outsourcing maintenance, sometimes to foreign owned companies. I suspect the next thing will be using contract pilots. Since all pilots must speak English, could the airlines use foreign nationals who might work for less? I don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting. Unlikely, since the major airlines plus some others are union shops.
MidlandMike Airlines are already outsourcing maintenance, sometimes to foreign owned companies. I suspect the next thing will be using contract pilots. Since all pilots must speak English, could the airlines use foreign nationals who might work for less? I don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting.
Airlines are already outsourcing maintenance, sometimes to foreign owned companies. I suspect the next thing will be using contract pilots. Since all pilots must speak English, could the airlines use foreign nationals who might work for less? I don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting.
Unlikely, since the major airlines plus some others are union shops.
Lots of airplane maintenance workers are union people too.
blue streak 1 schlimm [HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!! in defense of the pilot in your experience. --- about 5% of all flight into an airport have an opening in the congo line ( when the flight has to go past the airport then turn around to enter the line up )that enables a " slam dunk " landing. will save 10 - 20 minues of flight time and helps following planes to land quicker.I some airports that this is prevalent --- BOS, CLE, CHI OHARE, PIT, ATL, IAH, DFW, DEN, SEA,LAX )( ocassionally for east bound planes from pacific)
schlimm [HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!!
[HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!!
in defense of the pilot in your experience. --- about 5% of all flight into an airport have an opening in the congo line ( when the flight has to go past the airport then turn around to enter the line up )that enables a " slam dunk " landing. will save 10 - 20 minues of flight time and helps following planes to land quicker.I
some airports that this is prevalent --- BOS, CLE, CHI OHARE, PIT, ATL, IAH, DFW, DEN, SEA,LAX )( ocassionally for east bound planes from pacific)
No complaints from me!! It was an earlier era (43 years ago). I gave him my compliments. I thought it was one of the best landings I've been on at O'Hare.
MidlandMikeI don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting.
I agree. The discount airlines have lower salaries than traditional airlines. And some traditional airlines have brought into discount airlines which they now use for some of their service. And new discount airlines can open that pay even less.
I don't know that we will see airline pilots leaving to take a job at a fast food restaurant. But I'm sure airlines can find pilots to work for less than they now pay if they put their minds to it.
efftenxrfe "Achtung, Spitfire!" Achtung, hear ye, hear ye, listen up, attention please..... Airline pilot (really flight crew and aircraft maintainer) shortage, bus and truck driver jobs so undesirable no one wants the conditions salary and discipline, baby boomer railroaders near 60 yrs old, drought closing waterways to commercialy sensible "tow's" of 9 or a dozen barges, Interstate Highway System infrastructure built 50 years ago with a design life of 40 years....oh, woe is us..... Pogo was right! The USA created, worked, manufactured, fought, won, then endeavored to improve productivety; getting more revenue from each employee.
"Achtung, Spitfire!"
Achtung, hear ye, hear ye, listen up, attention please.....
Airline pilot (really flight crew and aircraft maintainer) shortage, bus and truck driver jobs so undesirable no one wants the conditions salary and discipline, baby boomer railroaders near 60 yrs old, drought closing waterways to commercialy sensible "tow's" of 9 or a dozen barges, Interstate Highway System infrastructure built 50 years ago with a design life of 40 years....oh, woe is us..... Pogo was right!
The USA created, worked, manufactured, fought, won, then endeavored to improve productivety; getting more revenue from each employee.
Firelock76 on Tue, Jan 8 2013 8:18 PM
"I take it the point efftenxrfe's trying to make is too many people, whether individuals, corporations, or governments when given the choice between learning the easy way or learning the hard way always seem to choose learning the hard way.
Hell's bells, as a student of history I could have told you that."
And apparentently, this all seems to point to the compilation of "Governmental Regulation that create a sea of problematic unintended consequences..".
Now, Back to my original questions...In the Job environments laid out in the Posts on this Thread..
.Is AMTRAK going to be a victor or Victim of our social shake-out?
Airlines need crews on their flight decks, and trains need crews.
And as one of the long time members around here has noted, referencing Pogo Possum:
" We have met the enemy and he is US!"
Will we have traqins that are Computer Controled? Planes that are flown like 'Drones'?
Remember that Delta Air Lines started life as a Crop Duster. and hauling passengers when there were not crops to dust....HQ then was Monroe, La.
See Link: http://www.deltamuseum.org/M_Education_DeltaHistory_Aircraft_HuffDaland.htm
I have also read that the Airline industries current starting salary for pilots is not as attractive to ex-Military people as it used to be. They might raise it but that would further drive up ticket costs..
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
I take it the point efftenxrfe's trying to make is too many people, whether individuals, corporations, or governments when given the choice between learning the easy way or learning the hard way always seem to choose learning the hard way.
Hell's bells, as a student of history I could have told you that.
The USA created, worked, manufactured, fought, won, then endevored to improve productivety; getting more revenue from each employee.
schlimm Firelock76 "The majority of Delta pilots were ex-Navy..." So THAT explains it! I KNEW I was right! I wonder if he hit that third wire? Maybe I should have asked, but I guess the last thing an ex-Navy "hot stick" needs is some wise-ass ex-Marine tactical air controller snoopin' around the cockpit. Semper Fi to all concerned. HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!!
Firelock76 "The majority of Delta pilots were ex-Navy..." So THAT explains it! I KNEW I was right! I wonder if he hit that third wire? Maybe I should have asked, but I guess the last thing an ex-Navy "hot stick" needs is some wise-ass ex-Marine tactical air controller snoopin' around the cockpit. Semper Fi to all concerned.
"The majority of Delta pilots were ex-Navy..." So THAT explains it! I KNEW I was right!
I wonder if he hit that third wire? Maybe I should have asked, but I guess the last thing an ex-Navy "hot stick" needs is some wise-ass ex-Marine tactical air controller snoopin' around the cockpit.
Semper Fi to all concerned.
Interesting. Somebody yell "Achtung, Spitfire!" ?
MidlandMike I suspect the regional airlines and short hops will suffer. It's inconceivable that congress would ever appropriate money for a true integrated transportation system. It either flies or dies.
I suspect the regional airlines and short hops will suffer. It's inconceivable that congress would ever appropriate money for a true integrated transportation system. It either flies or dies.
I would assume that any airline pilot has sufficient training, experience, and proficiency for a "greased" (i.e. smooth) landing. That is, under calm wind conditions.
There can be enough wind gusts to make for a harder landing. Also, a pilot wants to "stick" the plane on the ground rather than "float" down the runway and possible risk an overrun accident.
If there is any amount of crosswind, you may hear something that sounds like a bounced landing. There will be one clunk from one main gear, a second clunk from the second main gear from landing tipped to counteract the crosswind that sounds like a bounce, and a gentler third clunk from the nose wheel.
I am told it is better to "stick" the plane on the ground in a strong crosswind rather than go for a "greased" landing -- there is lower risk of being blown off the runway by a wind gust.
I am thinking that in today's airline corporate culture, that any kind of "hotdog" or "showboat" behavior is simply not the thing in airline operations. What you are experiencing may all have a technical explanation.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
I suspect the regional airlines and short hops will suffer. Since rail is not integrated with air (few convenient connections,) longer car trips to hub airports, rental cars, and rubber tire shuttles from the airport will take up the slack. It's inconceivable that congress would ever appropriate money for a true integrated transportation system. It either flies or dies.
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