Found this subject to be potentially interesting around here. With the vagaries of funding experienced by AMTRAK due to the Congressional funding issues it has experienced over the years.
A shortage in the Commercial Airline industry will certainly have a bearing on AMTRAK's future and its problems with the equipment pool around the country. Planes don't fly without Pilots ( just as Trains don't run without crews (yet?). The following links will provider a couple of interesting reads:
http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/11/14/airlines-face-worst-pilot-shortage-since-the-1960s/
"Airlines Face Worst Pilot Shortage in Decades"
FTA:'...As global economies expand and airlines take delivery of tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners over the next 20 years, the demand for personnel to fly and maintain those airplanes will be unprecedented.
The 2012 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook projects a need for approximately one million new commercial airline pilots and maintenance technicians by 2031, including 460,000 new commercial airline pilots and 601,000 maintenance technicians..."
FTA:"...Pilot Outlook:"The Asia Pacific region continues to present the largest projected growth in pilot demand, with a requirement for 185,600 new pilots. China has the largest demand within the region, with a need for 71,300 pilots. Europe will require 100,900 pilots, North America 69,000, Latin America 42,000, the Middle East 36,100, Africa 14,500, and the CIS 11,900..."
FTA:"...Technician Outlook: "The need for maintenance personnel is expected to grow most rapidly in the Asia Pacific region, which will require 243,500 new technical personnel. China's requirement will be the largest, with an expected need for 99,400 technicians. Airlines in Europe will require 129,700, North America 92,500, the Middle East 53,700, Latin America 47,300, the CIS 18,100, and Africa 16,200..."
And the other side of this is a lack of an organized network of Bus Lines ( Greyhound and Trailways went away before the start of the 21st Century.. Their national presence is pretty much diluted these days, by comparison of its presence prior to its corporate ownership changes. National Trailways Bus System began to break apart in the late 1970'a when it was bought by Kemmons Wilson ( founder of Holiday Inns).
The presence of either company is most likely confined to major population centers and a National Organized service is now questionable all over and outside of the major population centers.
The point of this is: that we now lack outside of AMTRAK; a cohesive national transportation network, Relying now on private vehicles, and buses operated by small companies and individuals, without much coordination.
It seems that the Airline Industry is going to have a problematic future; particularly where Pilots and maintenance personnel are concerned.
One has to wonder if AMTRAK is going to be prepared to step in and provide a reasonable alternative, as the Airline Industry works out their future.,
IF these problems persist in the Airline Industry? Will AMTRAK be able to service the traveling public with enough Equipment, Trains, and Personnel?
Will the Federal Government be prepared with an AMTRAK funding/operational plans?What about the National Railroad Network..
.How are they (The Railroads) going to react to an increasing demand on their networks, ffor that valuable capacity?
Should be an interesting future, for RAIL TRAVELERS !!!
Must . . . not . . . comment . . . on . . . far . . . reaching . . . arguments . . . supporting . . . train . . . funding . . .
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Wow! The supply of highly skilled, trained for free (to the airlines) pilots dried up some time back and now a lot of them are retiring (or already have. And the new supply from private aviation schools doesn't seem to be meeting demand. It seems to me the airlines will need to focus on flights over 500 miles in length (at a minimum), start dropping the short hauls entirely (including the already farmed out regionals) and the difference get picked up by a greatly expanded coordinated rail and bus service. Or maybe some folks will say, let them drive.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
I'm not sure I understand this completely: Are the US airlines facing a pilot shortage, or are everyone else's airlines facing a pilot shortage?
I'm suppose here in the US the airlines'll steal 'em from the Air Force and the Navy just like they've done in the past. As a matter of fact I took a Delta flight a few years back and the way the pilot slammed it into the runway I figured he was an ex-F-14 jockey trying to hit the third wire.
The "let the military train our pilots" semi-subsidy for the airlines has been drying up b/c we have a much smaller AF and Navy the last 20 years or so. The majority of Delta pilots, for example, were ex-Navy, at least in the past. The shortage is worldwide because of globalization.
"The majority of Delta pilots were ex-Navy..." So THAT explains it! I KNEW I was right!
I wonder if he hit that third wire? Maybe I should have asked, but I guess the last thing an ex-Navy "hot stick" needs is some wise-ass ex-Marine tactical air controller snoopin' around the cockpit.
Semper Fi to all concerned.
Firelock76 "...I'm not sure I understand this completely: Are the US airlines facing a pilot shortage, or are everyone else's airlines facing a pilot shortage? I'm suppose here in the US the airlines'll steal 'em from the Air Force and the Navy just like they've done in the past. As a matter of fact I took a Delta flight a few years back and the way the pilot slammed it into the runway I figured he was an ex-F-14 jockey trying to hit the third wire..."
"...I'm not sure I understand this completely: Are the US airlines facing a pilot shortage, or are everyone else's airlines facing a pilot shortage?
I'm suppose here in the US the airlines'll steal 'em from the Air Force and the Navy just like they've done in the past. As a matter of fact I took a Delta flight a few years back and the way the pilot slammed it into the runway I figured he was an ex-F-14 jockey trying to hit the third wire..."
schlimm said: on Mon, Jan 7 2013 5:45 PM
"...The "let the military train our pilots" semi-subsidy for the airlines has been drying up b/c we have a much smaller AF and Navy the last 20 years or so. The majority of Delta pilots, for example, were ex-Navy, at least in the past. The shortage is worldwide because of globalization..."
Firelock76: Please check the last couple of sections in my Orig. Posting: referencing Pilots and the projections for futurn industry needs. and for Technicians as well.
As Schliimm stated, it is probably caused, in part, by the Airline's Global groth projections. As well as the downsizing of the military has contributed less to the pool of available trained pilots. Not to mention a boost (by FAA) in pilots "Hours" they have flown.
My main reason for posting this was to get a discussion going about how TRAVEL within and without North America was going to be effected. It seems to stand to reason we are a nation (and World) that has grown comfortable with our ability to go anywhere in the Country and World, Fast! If The Airline Industry must down size due to a lack of Flight Deck Crews, that Need to Travel will have to be met by some means.
The Scheduled Bus Industry has virtually quit servicing the need for cheap travel. The automobile has picked up a lot of that slack. BUt there are rumors of efforts to slow that travel down. Rising Taxes, Rising Fuel Costs, and noises about taxing mileages on POV's at some point in the future(?)
That brings us down to AMTRAK. A very viable alternative travel mode. The major problem is it's Funding Stream for Improving its swevice and equipment, to answer the increases in traffic projections.
Again, there, it is using private owned infrastructure to operate on. A subject we here on these Forums is the problems that AMTRAK is causing the 'Host Railroads", and the infringement on those railroads' capacity.
AMTRAK, seems to be forever embroiled in its own issues, keeping its fleet of old, and high-mileage equipment going. Not having funding to buy newer and more efficient equipment. Personnel turnover, as one after another manager seems to burn out and retire( or just leave) from their jobs, political appointyees who may or may not have any experience in running a railroad.
The big question in my mind is:
Does AMTRAK have a future or will it become a 'Fallen Flag', as well???
Firelock76 "The majority of Delta pilots were ex-Navy..." So THAT explains it! I KNEW I was right! I wonder if he hit that third wire? Maybe I should have asked, but I guess the last thing an ex-Navy "hot stick" needs is some wise-ass ex-Marine tactical air controller snoopin' around the cockpit. Semper Fi to all concerned.
I suspect the regional airlines and short hops will suffer. Since rail is not integrated with air (few convenient connections,) longer car trips to hub airports, rental cars, and rubber tire shuttles from the airport will take up the slack. It's inconceivable that congress would ever appropriate money for a true integrated transportation system. It either flies or dies.
I would assume that any airline pilot has sufficient training, experience, and proficiency for a "greased" (i.e. smooth) landing. That is, under calm wind conditions.
There can be enough wind gusts to make for a harder landing. Also, a pilot wants to "stick" the plane on the ground rather than "float" down the runway and possible risk an overrun accident.
If there is any amount of crosswind, you may hear something that sounds like a bounced landing. There will be one clunk from one main gear, a second clunk from the second main gear from landing tipped to counteract the crosswind that sounds like a bounce, and a gentler third clunk from the nose wheel.
I am told it is better to "stick" the plane on the ground in a strong crosswind rather than go for a "greased" landing -- there is lower risk of being blown off the runway by a wind gust.
I am thinking that in today's airline corporate culture, that any kind of "hotdog" or "showboat" behavior is simply not the thing in airline operations. What you are experiencing may all have a technical explanation.
MidlandMike I suspect the regional airlines and short hops will suffer. It's inconceivable that congress would ever appropriate money for a true integrated transportation system. It either flies or dies.
I suspect the regional airlines and short hops will suffer. It's inconceivable that congress would ever appropriate money for a true integrated transportation system. It either flies or dies.
schlimm Firelock76 "The majority of Delta pilots were ex-Navy..." So THAT explains it! I KNEW I was right! I wonder if he hit that third wire? Maybe I should have asked, but I guess the last thing an ex-Navy "hot stick" needs is some wise-ass ex-Marine tactical air controller snoopin' around the cockpit. Semper Fi to all concerned. HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!!
Interesting. Somebody yell "Achtung, Spitfire!" ?
"Achtung, Spitfire!"
Achtung, hear ye, hear ye, listen up, attention please.....
Airline pilot (really flight crew and aircraft maintainer) shortage, bus and truck driver jobs so undesirable no one wants the conditions salary and discipline, baby boomer railroaders near 60 yrs old, drought closing waterways to commercialy sensible "tow's" of 9 or a dozen barges, Interstate Highway System infrastructure built 50 years ago with a design life of 40 years....oh, woe is us..... Pogo was right!
The USA created, worked, manufactured, fought, won, then endevored to improve productivety; getting more revenue from each employee.
I take it the point efftenxrfe's trying to make is too many people, whether individuals, corporations, or governments when given the choice between learning the easy way or learning the hard way always seem to choose learning the hard way.
Hell's bells, as a student of history I could have told you that.
schlimm The "let the military train our pilots" semi-subsidy for the airlines has been drying up b/c we have a much smaller AF and Navy the last 20 years or so. The majority of Delta pilots, for example, were ex-Navy, at least in the past. The shortage is worldwide because of globalization.
I have also read that the Airline industries current starting salary for pilots is not as attractive to ex-Military people as it used to be. They might raise it but that would further drive up ticket costs..
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
efftenxrfe "Achtung, Spitfire!" Achtung, hear ye, hear ye, listen up, attention please..... Airline pilot (really flight crew and aircraft maintainer) shortage, bus and truck driver jobs so undesirable no one wants the conditions salary and discipline, baby boomer railroaders near 60 yrs old, drought closing waterways to commercialy sensible "tow's" of 9 or a dozen barges, Interstate Highway System infrastructure built 50 years ago with a design life of 40 years....oh, woe is us..... Pogo was right! The USA created, worked, manufactured, fought, won, then endeavored to improve productivety; getting more revenue from each employee.
The USA created, worked, manufactured, fought, won, then endeavored to improve productivety; getting more revenue from each employee.
Firelock76 on Tue, Jan 8 2013 8:18 PM
"I take it the point efftenxrfe's trying to make is too many people, whether individuals, corporations, or governments when given the choice between learning the easy way or learning the hard way always seem to choose learning the hard way.
Hell's bells, as a student of history I could have told you that."
And apparentently, this all seems to point to the compilation of "Governmental Regulation that create a sea of problematic unintended consequences..".
Now, Back to my original questions...In the Job environments laid out in the Posts on this Thread..
.Is AMTRAK going to be a victor or Victim of our social shake-out?
Airlines need crews on their flight decks, and trains need crews.
And as one of the long time members around here has noted, referencing Pogo Possum:
" We have met the enemy and he is US!"
Will we have traqins that are Computer Controled? Planes that are flown like 'Drones'?
Remember that Delta Air Lines started life as a Crop Duster. and hauling passengers when there were not crops to dust....HQ then was Monroe, La.
See Link: http://www.deltamuseum.org/M_Education_DeltaHistory_Aircraft_HuffDaland.htm
schlimm [HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!!
[HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!!
in defense of the pilot in your experience. --- about 5% of all flight into an airport have an opening in the congo line ( when the flight has to go past the airport then turn around to enter the line up )that enables a " slam dunk " landing. will save 10 - 20 minues of flight time and helps following planes to land quicker.I
some airports that this is prevalent --- BOS, CLE, CHI OHARE, PIT, ATL, IAH, DFW, DEN, SEA,LAX )( ocassionally for east bound planes from pacific)
Airlines are already outsourcing maintenance, sometimes to foreign owned companies. I suspect the next thing will be using contract pilots. Since all pilots must speak English, could the airlines use foreign nationals who might work for less? I don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting.
MidlandMike Airlines are already outsourcing maintenance, sometimes to foreign owned companies. I suspect the next thing will be using contract pilots. Since all pilots must speak English, could the airlines use foreign nationals who might work for less? I don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting.
Unlikely, since the major airlines plus some others are union shops.
MidlandMikeI don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting.
I agree. The discount airlines have lower salaries than traditional airlines. And some traditional airlines have brought into discount airlines which they now use for some of their service. And new discount airlines can open that pay even less.
I don't know that we will see airline pilots leaving to take a job at a fast food restaurant. But I'm sure airlines can find pilots to work for less than they now pay if they put their minds to it.
blue streak 1 schlimm [HA!! Sources of trained pilots. That reminded me of a flight on Lufthansa from Germany to Chicago in the mid-60's. We are still over lake Michigan at about 30,000 feet when suddenly the pilot does a very sharp bank to the right. The next thing we level off and are landing. Ex-Luftwaffe, judging by his age!! in defense of the pilot in your experience. --- about 5% of all flight into an airport have an opening in the congo line ( when the flight has to go past the airport then turn around to enter the line up )that enables a " slam dunk " landing. will save 10 - 20 minues of flight time and helps following planes to land quicker.I some airports that this is prevalent --- BOS, CLE, CHI OHARE, PIT, ATL, IAH, DFW, DEN, SEA,LAX )( ocassionally for east bound planes from pacific)
No complaints from me!! It was an earlier era (43 years ago). I gave him my compliments. I thought it was one of the best landings I've been on at O'Hare.
CSSHEGEWISCH MidlandMike Airlines are already outsourcing maintenance, sometimes to foreign owned companies. I suspect the next thing will be using contract pilots. Since all pilots must speak English, could the airlines use foreign nationals who might work for less? I don't think we have seen the end of airline cost cutting. Unlikely, since the major airlines plus some others are union shops.
Lots of airplane maintenance workers are union people too.
US travelers want to travel for next to nothing.
Travel providers (all of them) want to pay their employees next to nothing.
Everything seems in balance for implosion.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACD US travelers want to travel for next to nothing. Travel providers (all of them) want to pay their employees next to nothing. Everything seems in balance for implosion.
Balt:
Since you work for a railroad. I am curious to know:
A.) If the airlines cut back on flights ( intra-City/Intra-USA) What happens to that pent-up to travel in the USA? Is there enough capacity in the American Rail System to host the extra trains?
B.) Do you think there are enogh extra personnel to crew those additional trains, IF The railroads would host them?
C.) How long would it take AMTRAK to ramp up their services to fit the needs of the traveling public?
D.) Do you think the railroads would be up to the task before AMTRAK?
Would AMTRAK just go away in the face of the task of moving rail passengers?
Would the whole situation for rail travel; in the USA, just go" TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET?"
Thanks!
Sam,
I would not accept the premise of the original story, that there will be a pilot shortage. This is an example of somebody planting a story with an economically ignorant journalist who swallows the story as presented.
That said, of course the military has been a handy training ground for airline pilots, but it would be interesting to see real data on absolute numbers and percentages, say since 1955. I suspect military contribution has been decling for a long time and if I were running an airline I would expect it to continue to decline.
The airlines will not willingly go out of business for lack of pilots. They will increase pay to draw and hold pilots and will figure out how to train or help train new pilots. In short, the market will work.
As to substantailly increasing ATK presence on frieight railroads, that will be seriously constrained by existing capacity constraints on most main lines. The freight carriers will not invest to support ATK, and thankfully the law does not require them to do so. That means ATK will have to fund capacity improvements needed to create the additional capacity that ATK would require. That would be frightfully expensive, far more than the additional cost of training pilots.
In short, this is another bit of "chicken little" journalism best ignored.
Mac
Not quite the same thing, but close to it: About a year ago I read a story on NorthJersey.com about a gent who owns a metal fabrication business. Seems one day he had a good look at his work force and had a "Holy Jeez!" moment. Looking at all the gray hair he realized he was going to lose his workers to retirement within the next five to ten years. What to do?
A pretty good solution, if you ask me. He started recruiting replacements from the local high schools, realizing not everyone is college material, and quite a few young men (let's be fair here, probably young women too) HATE being in the classroom and love working with their hands, According to the article, it looked like he was having some success.
The point is, here was a man who was realist enough to know that he was going to have to cut into his profit margin for a time (recruiting and training) to ensure his business would survive long term. What's the saying that a lot of people have forgotten? "Sometimes you gotta spend money to make money."
Thanks, Mac!
I think you make some valid points. For a long time the US Military and Other Nations, as well, I would suspect. Trained pilots and got them lots of flying. From time to time sever cutbacks in personnel ( most likely, due to political solutions in time when funding was an issue.) Probably caused former military pilots to cycle into Commercial Aviation. More recently, the pay scales were somewhat better than in previous years on the military side..not to mention the on-going conflicts in the Middle East which ate up military airlift capacity(?).
http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/PilotShortageOrAirlineHype_207684-1.html
The linked site gives credence to your points about the pilot shortages..
Mac: ((PNWRMNM ) wrote:"...The airlines will not willingly go out of business for lack of pilots. They will increase pay to draw and hold pilots and will figure out how to train or help train new pilots. In short, the market will work..."
Your statement aove is, I think, spot on. When it finally gets down to having flight crews for Commercial Aviation. The airlines will pony up the wages to get the crews. They may not be able to fly as many fights with the frequency of today's levels=, but they will have seats available...For a price. Whether the Public will pay for that capacity, would remain to be seen. Business Travel, is another issue of need vs. cost.
Which brings me to the AMTRAK capacity, will they be able to buy the extra capacity needed from the freight railroads ? We both agree that in the areas where AMTRAK needs exceed the speed and capacity of the existing lines, AMTRAK will have to poney up the monies for increases in the existing rail network to give them the capacity to run trains ( and probably more eqipment ) . Crewing may become the issue in that situation as well. (?)
Firelock76He started recruiting replacements from the local high schools,
I don't know about other places but in New Jersey many high schools have distributive education programs. As part of their education pupils are placed in positions in local businesses as a learning experience. It is a good program.
More info on another reason that there will be fewer pilots in the future.
http://www.njherald.com/story/20573058/up-up-and-away-small-airports-are-disappearing
Where did the reporter get the ludicrous idea that the airlines are incapable of training new pilots?
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
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