trainsBuddy The argument that sleepers and LD trains, in general, are not needed is silly considering that sleeping accommodations are often sold out months in advance. This is from my personal, consumer experience! If anything, Amtrak needs more sleepers to bring the prices down. Also, the price for the Roomettes is pretty reasonable considering accommodations and full dining. Full bedrooms are expensive, but it's expected for the top tier first class.
The argument that sleepers and LD trains, in general, are not needed is silly considering that sleeping accommodations are often sold out months in advance. This is from my personal, consumer experience! If anything, Amtrak needs more sleepers to bring the prices down. Also, the price for the Roomettes is pretty reasonable considering accommodations and full dining. Full bedrooms are expensive, but it's expected for the top tier first class.
Long-distance trains are not so much a question of need as it is of costs and fares. An extra sleeper and coach doesn't seem to add that much revenue to substantially offset costs and many times may be unnecessary.
How much need would there be if long-distance fares were higher? And could the costs be reduced or re-applied to expanded corridor services not requiring as much subsidy per passenger or passenger-mile? Posters comment that Amtrak isn't run as a business, but that's not true. The political reality is that government keeps an eye on the cost of Amtrak and in the end periodically reviews the costs and benefits as with any other business. A large Congressional faction is calling for both zeroing out Amtrak and eliminating support for state trains for the next Federal budget.
First, long-distance trains and pricing should be re-thought before any more money is thrown into it in the form of new equipment. This should be done before we wonder at how many potential riders are left behind and whether that would justify the capital outlay for additional equipment for occasional use.
For the moment, let's just acknowledge that fare rates decrease with distance where Amtrak strives to attract riders going the entire distance reaping the greatest subsidy for coach and sleeper travel.
I have asked before why not rebuild existing equipment to current FRA specifications with tilt suspension so Regional and long-distance trains can keep up on the NEC? With only 3-4 trains an hour in one direction, I don't see how this can be such a problem. Furthermore, Amtrak still must deal with tenant commuter operations that share in the cost of maintaining the Corridor or even Acela would not be profitable.
I also agree that there will be no national support for the NEC and new Hudson River tunnels without long-distance and state-supported trains; and both of these are under separate attacks and vulnerable in the current political and economic landscape. Just how important state and long-distance trains are in secondary local benefits (sales tax revenues, traffic congestion, etc.) and in rural access to big-city attractions has not been fully addressed.
I agree with Sam1 and others that the focus should go to regional short and medium-distance rail passenger services in high travel corridors where road and air congestion (and parking costs) are factors. This has some impact on national travel as well, sharing the same local infrastructure that I think warrants national support for Amtrak as an umbrella agency and partially sharing revenue shortfalls under existing legislation.
Dakguy201 PNWRMNM: I am not a computer expert, but this is part of yield management which the airlines have been doing for decades. It should not be dificult to write a routine that captures inquiries that could not be fulfilled due to being sold out. One could argue that this would overstate lost sales and I would agree since to capture degree of interest would be difficult. Amtrak is already using a yield management computer software to administer their bucket pricing system. I would think that a byproduct of that system is insight into the point in time at which a long distance train is substantially sold out. From that knowledge is should be a short step to adding accomodations to existing consists on an incremental basis and observing ridership data. Of course, that depends upon having an adequate equipment pool, which is not presently the case. Asking the rest of the country to pony up for multibillion projects in the Corridor, such as the new Hudson River tunnels (can you say "son of Big Dig?"), while starving Amtrak of the equipment necessary to operate the LD trains is not a political strategy that is going to be viable in the long run.
PNWRMNM: I am not a computer expert, but this is part of yield management which the airlines have been doing for decades. It should not be dificult to write a routine that captures inquiries that could not be fulfilled due to being sold out. One could argue that this would overstate lost sales and I would agree since to capture degree of interest would be difficult.
I am not a computer expert, but this is part of yield management which the airlines have been doing for decades. It should not be dificult to write a routine that captures inquiries that could not be fulfilled due to being sold out. One could argue that this would overstate lost sales and I would agree since to capture degree of interest would be difficult.
Amtrak is already using a yield management computer software to administer their bucket pricing system. I would think that a byproduct of that system is insight into the point in time at which a long distance train is substantially sold out. From that knowledge is should be a short step to adding accomodations to existing consists on an incremental basis and observing ridership data. Of course, that depends upon having an adequate equipment pool, which is not presently the case.
Asking the rest of the country to pony up for multibillion projects in the Corridor, such as the new Hudson River tunnels (can you say "son of Big Dig?"), while starving Amtrak of the equipment necessary to operate the LD trains is not a political strategy that is going to be viable in the long run.
Lets suppose that I call Amtrak's reservation center and inquire about sleeper space from Austin to Chicago for date X. It is sold out because the last space is taken between Little Rock and St. Louis. OK, I say. I am retired. How about a roomette on X+1. OK, you got it. Amtrak lost a passenger on X because of a first class space constraint, but not for X+1. Doesn't sound like a good reason to add extra space on X, especially if a significant percentage of passengers would flop over to another date. Based on my observations (I always travel in a sleeper when the trip is overnight), a significant portion of the folks traveling in a sleeper are retired or have flexible travel schedules. So Amtrak loses a passenger for a given date but not forever.
In scene two I call the reservation center and inquire about the cost of sleeper space to Chicago from Austin. The clerk tells me that there is no space on X, but there is space on X+1. I decide that the price is too high, irrespective of the space constraint, and I hang up. I would not have bought the space irrespective of its availability. How do you classify this situation, given the unlikelihood that you would know the real reason for my failure to pursue the reservation?
In scene three I go on-line and check the sleeper space from Austin to Chicago on X as well as multiple future Xs. X is sold out. But I decide that sleeping car accommodations are too pricey for my budget, and I book a coach ticket. The system can determine that I opened the room dialogue box, but it does not know whether I considered a roomette, family room, or bedroom. Or whether I was seriously interested in booking sleeper space or just checking it out. Since the system shows upon opening the dialogue box whether sleeper space is sold out, it does not now appear to have any way to determine whether I am serious about getting sleeper space or just looking. It would not know whether I was serious unless it asked me to click on the accommodation and then told me that the space was sold out. Which would not make for a very friendly site experience.
I worked for a large electric utility. We have a call center. And we were concerned about dropped calls. Based on the nature of the successful calls, we use statistical models to draw conclusions about the dropped calls, but that was all they were. We did not know what the callers who hung up before being served wanted. We could only assume. Unless there was a massive power failure due to one of the ice storms that slams north Texas from time to time. Then we had a pretty good idea why they were calling.
PNWRMNM I am not a computer expert, but this is part of yield management which the airlines have been doing for decades. It should not be dificult to write a routine that captures inquiries that could not be fulfilled due to being sold out. One could argue that this would overstate lost sales and I would agree since to capture degree of interest would be difficult.
schlimm,
If I were running ATK I would be interested in regaining the discouraged potential customers, but as I thought we agreed neither of us knows how to count them, let alone count them at a cost I can squeeze out of my budget.
How often did the dog not bark? How often is a congressman going to think that far?
Mac
Mac: Thanks!! I have a little knowledge of yield management , and it seems to me that is more applicable to determining maximum variable seating pricing and utilization, not for finding how many potential sales were lost because of lack of availability. You are quite right, however, about tracking on the internet to measure how many queries for seats were not ultimately fulfilled and to use that as your base. But why you would have no interest in regaining the discouraged potential customer is beyond me unless you have no interest in expanding the business.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
blue streak 1 ...Again this is a case of not telling the whole story. [Heritage] cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them [they] limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest.
...Again this is a case of not telling the whole story. [Heritage] cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them [they] limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest.
...Again this is a case of not telling the whole story.
[Heritage] cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them [they] limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest.
Only the Acela with tilt suspension can sustain 125 mph Philadelphia - Washington with existing curves. Would new equipment get tilt suspension to do 125 on the existing alignment? This assumes 4-in. cant and 7-in. cant deficiency.
160 mph only may be possible between New Brunswick and Trenton without major curve re-alignments for 36-minute, 9,550-ft radius curves; and then only where significant residential and business dislocation does not make it politically untenable. This assumes 4-in. cant and 7-in. cant deficiency.
I know of no way to capture the "never to return". Those folks are an arguement to NOT discount the figures generated by the above process.
My conclusion is that it is technically possible to generate defensable numbers of lost sales and lost revenue.
If I were running ATK I would ask myself what the cost of doing it was, and the likelyhood that I could use it to convince Congress to give me more money. My personal sense of things is that it should not be very expensive, less that $100,000 and I would sure like to answer when some congressman asked me why I thought there was more business to be had with something better than "I feel it in my bones/gut".
PNWRMNM schlimm, If ATK can not answer the question of how many seats and what type on what dates question internally, then they are even more incompetent than you and Henry seem to give them credit for. Mac
If ATK can not answer the question of how many seats and what type on what dates question internally, then they are even more incompetent than you and Henry seem to give them credit for.
Mac: I give Amtrak very little credit for competence. However, measuring business lost is very difficult. If a train or car is sold out on a given date, you can infer that some was lost, but you don't know how much. A waiting list only shows who wanted space who was willing to sign up. It does not measure the person who went online, found nothing and went away, never to return. Do you know of a method that would work? You sound as though you do. Let's hear it.
Dragoman In this case, maybe Amtrak is operating "as a real business". As long as it is required by Congress to run the long-distance trains, they should maximize itheir potential. Amtrak says (as do many observers) that sleepers are the most frequently sold out, so to add to that part of the fleet makes sense. Also, I thought I read that many of the baggage cars are very old (not capable of the same speeds as the newer passenger cars), and dorms are also in shortage, currently requiring Amtrak to use revenue space for crew. Only Congress can get Amtrak out of the LD business (if that's a good idea). While they're in it, they should not be turning away the customers who pay the highest fares.
In this case, maybe Amtrak is operating "as a real business". As long as it is required by Congress to run the long-distance trains, they should maximize itheir potential. Amtrak says (as do many observers) that sleepers are the most frequently sold out, so to add to that part of the fleet makes sense. Also, I thought I read that many of the baggage cars are very old (not capable of the same speeds as the newer passenger cars), and dorms are also in shortage, currently requiring Amtrak to use revenue space for crew.
Only Congress can get Amtrak out of the LD business (if that's a good idea). While they're in it, they should not be turning away the customers who pay the highest fares.
There is something wrong with the picture here. If sleeper space frequently sells out but consistently loses money, shouldn't the price go up? Shouldn't the price point be set to maximize revenue? Maybe Mica was right. This seems to be Soviet style marketing. Waiting in line to purchase subsidized, below market price, goods.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
blue streak 1 Sam1: Amtrak management appears to be trapped in a 1950s time warp. Baggage, dinning, and sleeping cars! For trains that are used by approximately 15% of Amtrak's customers and less than 4/10s of intercity travelers. Again this is a case of not telling the whole story. 1. Baggage -- these cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them baggage cars limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest. Also there are some trains Amtrak wants to add baggage cars to but does not have the inventory. [ Pslmetto , Pennsylvanian { more later }] Cardinal was just able to bet a baggage car this year. The sleeping car numbers are worse. Just 2.3% of Amtrak's passengers or 15% of the long distance trains users travel by sleeper. 2. Again how can we say LD is limited to 15% when the sleeping cars regularly sell out on some routes { ex. Cardinal , Crescent }. Using only current train routes an additional sleeping car is needed WASH - ATL, lAKESHORE FROM BOS which often looses sleeper if there is any shortage, Pennsylvanian { plans to have a NYP / PHL - Pittsburg - sleeper that attaches to the Capitol at PIT going on to Chicago. Cardinal, Florida trains in winter. The other point is that a number of baggage dorms are being built that will free up regular sleeper space that has to sleep off duty. Most of Amtrak's middle and lower middle class travelers cannot afford a sleeper, which is ironic for a government sponsored railroad that is supported by each taxpayer. 3. That is correct but however if some speciality sleepers { slumber coaches, europpean style cachettes, etc. } in the next order for sleepers maybe there could be a market for them. Certainly was in the past. 4.. Dinning cars -- Again Heritage dinners limited to 110 MPH and new 125 Mph. 5. Heritage Dinners and baggage. Due to age and scaricity of these cars { some over 60 yr old } maintenance costs and availability is much lower that the 87% availability of the whole passenger fleet. Cars break down for parts that are scare or non- existent { due to planned obsolencence in this country } parts may have to be fabricated locally at Beech Grove.
Sam1: Amtrak management appears to be trapped in a 1950s time warp. Baggage, dinning, and sleeping cars! For trains that are used by approximately 15% of Amtrak's customers and less than 4/10s of intercity travelers. Again this is a case of not telling the whole story. 1. Baggage -- these cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them baggage cars limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest. Also there are some trains Amtrak wants to add baggage cars to but does not have the inventory. [ Pslmetto , Pennsylvanian { more later }] Cardinal was just able to bet a baggage car this year. The sleeping car numbers are worse. Just 2.3% of Amtrak's passengers or 15% of the long distance trains users travel by sleeper. 2. Again how can we say LD is limited to 15% when the sleeping cars regularly sell out on some routes { ex. Cardinal , Crescent }. Using only current train routes an additional sleeping car is needed WASH - ATL, lAKESHORE FROM BOS which often looses sleeper if there is any shortage, Pennsylvanian { plans to have a NYP / PHL - Pittsburg - sleeper that attaches to the Capitol at PIT going on to Chicago. Cardinal, Florida trains in winter. The other point is that a number of baggage dorms are being built that will free up regular sleeper space that has to sleep off duty. Most of Amtrak's middle and lower middle class travelers cannot afford a sleeper, which is ironic for a government sponsored railroad that is supported by each taxpayer. 3. That is correct but however if some speciality sleepers { slumber coaches, europpean style cachettes, etc. } in the next order for sleepers maybe there could be a market for them. Certainly was in the past. 4.. Dinning cars -- Again Heritage dinners limited to 110 MPH and new 125 Mph. 5. Heritage Dinners and baggage. Due to age and scaricity of these cars { some over 60 yr old } maintenance costs and availability is much lower that the 87% availability of the whole passenger fleet. Cars break down for parts that are scare or non- existent { due to planned obsolencence in this country } parts may have to be fabricated locally at Beech Grove.
Amtrak management appears to be trapped in a 1950s time warp. Baggage, dinning, and sleeping cars! For trains that are used by approximately 15% of Amtrak's customers and less than 4/10s of intercity travelers.
Again this is a case of not telling the whole story.
1. Baggage -- these cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them baggage cars limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest. Also there are some trains Amtrak wants to add baggage cars to but does not have the inventory. [ Pslmetto , Pennsylvanian { more later }] Cardinal was just able to bet a baggage car this year.
The sleeping car numbers are worse. Just 2.3% of Amtrak's passengers or 15% of the long distance trains users travel by sleeper.
2. Again how can we say LD is limited to 15% when the sleeping cars regularly sell out on some routes { ex. Cardinal , Crescent }. Using only current train routes an additional sleeping car is needed WASH - ATL, lAKESHORE FROM BOS which often looses sleeper if there is any shortage, Pennsylvanian { plans to have a NYP / PHL - Pittsburg - sleeper that attaches to the Capitol at PIT going on to Chicago. Cardinal, Florida trains in winter. The other point is that a number of baggage dorms are being built that will free up regular sleeper space that has to sleep off duty.
Most of Amtrak's middle and lower middle class travelers cannot afford a sleeper, which is ironic for a government sponsored railroad that is supported by each taxpayer.
3. That is correct but however if some speciality sleepers { slumber coaches, europpean style cachettes, etc. } in the next order for sleepers maybe there could be a market for them. Certainly was in the past.
4.. Dinning cars -- Again Heritage dinners limited to 110 MPH and new 125 Mph.
5. Heritage Dinners and baggage. Due to age and scaricity of these cars { some over 60 yr old } maintenance costs and availability is much lower that the 87% availability of the whole passenger fleet. Cars break down for parts that are scare or non- existent { due to planned obsolencence in this country } parts may have to be fabricated locally at Beech Grove.
It would have made more sense to buy new coaches and convert Amfleet to baggage cars and LD diners.
It also would make more sense to buy coaches for developing corridors that have a shot at a positive ROI instead of LD equipment where the ROI will be negative.
It would also make more sense to rotate the on board crew off for rest with the operating crew and not have to provide any dorm space. It would also improve the quality of life for the on board crew.
I can speak to the Eagle as I take it often r/t LA to Dallas and unless I book months in advance I have real problems getting a bedroom. Also, my experience is that the dinner is well used although I will admit that the service from San Antonio to Dallas is very poor. Once we are cut loose from the Sunset all the service deteriorates somewhat.
Sam1 Most businesses have peaks and valleys in their business cycle. Having worked in traffic planning have found that these peaks and valleys are hard to predict. Especially when dealing with weather and tourists. Previously tourist travel droped greatly after Labor day and slowly increased thru Thanksgiving peak that only dropped slightly thru New Years. It does surprize me that sleeper space is close to selling out this September The key question for Amtrak is how many spills overs are there for a service, i.e. sleeping car space? What are the incremental costs and revenues of adding capacity? How frequently will the additional capacity be used? All very good questions that we cannot answer at present. Those numbers certainly need to be published How many could not get sleeper space on the Crescent? Is it one or two? Now you have hit on a pet peeve of mine. The Amtrak website has no way for someone to wait list for any sold out space. That is for either persons who booka a coach seat but wanted to get a sleeper or someone who does not book at all. Another problem is: are any of the spaces blocked for travel agents? If so another reason for wait lists. Wait lists would allow for better load planning. If that is the case, adding additional equipment would not be cost effective, i.e. the incremental revenues would not justify the incremental costs. On the other hand, if the spill over is half the space of a sleeper, then adding another car may be worth while, Now you have a reason for the baggage dorms being bullt. By judicious scheduling a half sleeper even though for crew can limit train length but provide sleeper space. In other words if train has bag-dorm and needs a haf sleeper more space the dorm can be removed and regular baggage and a regular sleeper added. Another point is over how many segments is the sleeper sold out? For example, if all the segments for the Texas Eagle sleeper is sold out on a consistent basis from San Antonio to Chicago, adding another car may be worth it. But if it is only sold out between Poplar Bluff and St Louis, that is another story. This is an operations research problem. Unless Amtrak releases this information, none of the folks who post to these forums will know the business need for additional sleeping cars. Your specific example sounds like a reserch project for the Texas Eagle group that pushed for the better Eagle service. Amtrak certainly needs to release the info but I suspect they are afraid competion may use it as well.
Most businesses have peaks and valleys in their business cycle.
Having worked in traffic planning have found that these peaks and valleys are hard to predict. Especially when dealing with weather and tourists. Previously tourist travel droped greatly after Labor day and slowly increased thru Thanksgiving peak that only dropped slightly thru New Years. It does surprize me that sleeper space is close to selling out this September
The key question for Amtrak is how many spills overs are there for a service, i.e. sleeping car space? What are the incremental costs and revenues of adding capacity? How frequently will the additional capacity be used?
All very good questions that we cannot answer at present. Those numbers certainly need to be published
How many could not get sleeper space on the Crescent? Is it one or two?
Now you have hit on a pet peeve of mine. The Amtrak website has no way for someone to wait list for any sold out space. That is for either persons who booka a coach seat but wanted to get a sleeper or someone who does not book at all. Another problem is: are any of the spaces blocked for travel agents? If so another reason for wait lists. Wait lists would allow for better load planning.
If that is the case, adding additional equipment would not be cost effective, i.e. the incremental revenues would not justify the incremental costs. On the other hand, if the spill over is half the space of a sleeper, then adding another car may be worth while,
Now you have a reason for the baggage dorms being bullt. By judicious scheduling a half sleeper even though for crew can limit train length but provide sleeper space. In other words if train has bag-dorm and needs a haf sleeper more space the dorm can be removed and regular baggage and a regular sleeper added.
Another point is over how many segments is the sleeper sold out? For example, if all the segments for the Texas Eagle sleeper is sold out on a consistent basis from San Antonio to Chicago, adding another car may be worth it. But if it is only sold out between Poplar Bluff and St Louis, that is another story. This is an operations research problem. Unless Amtrak releases this information, none of the folks who post to these forums will know the business need for additional sleeping cars.
Your specific example sounds like a reserch project for the Texas Eagle group that pushed for the better Eagle service. Amtrak certainly needs to release the info but I suspect they are afraid competion may use it as well.
sam1: "How many could not get sleeper space on the Crescent? Is it one or two? If that is the case, adding additional equipment would not be cost effective, i.e. the incremental revenues would not justify the incremental costs. On the other hand, if the spill over is half the space of a sleeper, then adding another car may be worth while..."
It's a good question, especially if generalized. Even with computers, it is hard for a business to accurately measure how much business is lost for lack of availability, in this case a sleeper car, or in the other case, coach seats on the Nor'easter. I doubt if Amtrak knows or can infer from their data.
blue streak 1 Sam1: Do the numbers! They can be found in Amtrak's Monthly Operating Reports. If you think that I am not reporting accurately, then tell me the source of your numbers or show me why my numbers are incorrect. Your just presenting isolated, subjective analysis in most instances. The key takaway from my argument is that Amtrak should not be buying any long distance equipment. Long distance trains are an anchorism. They need to go the way of the horse and buggy. Sam. will you agree that September is usually a time when fewer persons use all public transportation? Just checked Amtrak reservations. For the next 9 days including today almost all crescent trains sleeper accomodations sold out. Cardinal sleepers sold out except Sa and Su. So equipment is needed to move both ways. A cite in Sept for the Downeaster is again looking at a slower travel time. I would expect that those trains are not booked until a few days before a person will travel?
Sam1: Do the numbers! They can be found in Amtrak's Monthly Operating Reports. If you think that I am not reporting accurately, then tell me the source of your numbers or show me why my numbers are incorrect. Your just presenting isolated, subjective analysis in most instances. The key takaway from my argument is that Amtrak should not be buying any long distance equipment. Long distance trains are an anchorism. They need to go the way of the horse and buggy.
Do the numbers! They can be found in Amtrak's Monthly Operating Reports. If you think that I am not reporting accurately, then tell me the source of your numbers or show me why my numbers are incorrect. Your just presenting isolated, subjective analysis in most instances. The key takaway from my argument is that Amtrak should not be buying any long distance equipment. Long distance trains are an anchorism. They need to go the way of the horse and buggy.
Do the numbers! They can be found in Amtrak's Monthly Operating Reports. If you think that I am not reporting accurately, then tell me the source of your numbers or show me why my numbers are incorrect. Your just presenting isolated, subjective analysis in most instances.
The key takaway from my argument is that Amtrak should not be buying any long distance equipment. Long distance trains are an anchorism. They need to go the way of the horse and buggy.
Sam. will you agree that September is usually a time when fewer persons use all public transportation?
Just checked Amtrak reservations. For the next 9 days including today almost all crescent trains sleeper accomodations sold out. Cardinal sleepers sold out except Sa and Su. So equipment is needed to move both ways.
A cite in Sept for the Downeaster is again looking at a slower travel time. I would expect that those trains are not booked until a few days before a person will travel?
Most businesses have peaks and valleys in their business cycle. The key question for Amtrak is how many spills overs are there for a service, i.e. sleeping car space? What are the incremental costs and revenues of adding capacity? How frequently will the additional capacity be used?
How many could not get sleeper space on the Crescent? Is it one or two? If that is the case, adding additional equipment would not be cost effective, i.e. the incremental revenues would not justify the incremental costs. On the other hand, if the spill over is half the space of a sleeper, then adding another car may be worth while, although given the subsidies required for sleeping car passengers, it does not matter how much the incremental revenues increase. As the IG noted in his report, the probability of being able to cover the cost of the sleeping cars and dinning cars is low.
I should say that I enjoy trading ideas and challenges on Train's forums. I like being a contrarian; it is part of my nature. But I don't take myself as seriously as some other people apparently do. At the end of the day, Amtrak management, with the support of the politicians, will do whatever they want.
Amtrak will muddle through unless the United States craters financially. The long distance trains will keep running and they will continue to look much like the trains in the 1950s, i.e. coaches, dinners, lounge cars, and sleepers. And as long as I am able, I will be on them.
Avianwatcher At the risk of sounding elite my wife and I will only travel in a sleeper. On a non over night trip we get a roomette and on over night trips we get a bedroom. We found the coach cars to be a zoo. Children totally unsupervised, adults yelling and playing "boom boxes" make travel very unpleasant. We have found sleepers on the routes we take we need to book at least 7 to 10 months ahead so more new cars are needed!
At the risk of sounding elite my wife and I will only travel in a sleeper. On a non over night trip we get a roomette and on over night trips we get a bedroom. We found the coach cars to be a zoo. Children totally unsupervised, adults yelling and playing "boom boxes" make travel very unpleasant. We have found sleepers on the routes we take we need to book at least 7 to 10 months ahead so more new cars are needed!
I will ride coach during the day, but on overnight trips I get a sleeper. As I pointed out, we should not lose sight of the fact that the taxpayers are providing us with a greater subsidy than that given to the peasants riding in coach class.
The IG had it right. Assuming the long distance trains are critical to rural America (They are not), coach class with some food service would meet the need. Sleeping cars, traditional dinning cars, lounge cars, etc. simply increase the cost, are used by a relatively small number of Amtrak's long distance passengers (14% to 15%), run-up the cost, and don't come near recovering their cost.
This is why I raised the point about a 1950s mindset. And what is the real need for long distance equipment?
Dragoman Sam1: A) The complaint about too few sleepers is not just from subjective, general observations -- Amtrak says so, including in the various press releases, including those on its website discussing the new equipment. B) It is just possible that Amtrak has taken the IG's recommendations to heart in the last 6 years and improved the revenue-to-cost ratio for sleepers (but of course, I can't say for sure).
Sam1:
A) The complaint about too few sleepers is not just from subjective, general observations -- Amtrak says so, including in the various press releases, including those on its website discussing the new equipment.
B) It is just possible that Amtrak has taken the IG's recommendations to heart in the last 6 years and improved the revenue-to-cost ratio for sleepers (but of course, I can't say for sure).
But Amtrak has not made public any numbers showing the occupancy rate for its sleeping cars or the number of passengers turned away for lack of space. As the commercial said a few years ago, where is the beef (numbers)? Management can make all kinds of statements about capacity, etc., but until it shows me the numbers, I assume that it is puffing.
Based on my observations, Amtrak management, as is typical for public service bureaucrats, has thwarted the IG's recommendations. I would be surprised if it has made much headway on the IG's recommendations.
Amtrak was supposed to drop the dinner on the Texas Eagle, convert half the lounge car to tables, and provide take away food service from the lower level of the lounge car. This was designed to achieve some of the cost savings recommended by the IG whilst preserving on-board food and beverage space together with a lounge. It got the lounge car conversion done. But it did not drop the dinners.
Last week I rode the Eagle from Temple to Dallas and back. The crew consisted of one engineer, who only goes as far as Austin, where another gets on to take the train 90 miles or thereabouts to San Antonio, one conductor, one trainman, one sleeping car attendant, one coach car attendant, one dinning car cook, and two dinning car waiters. All for a approximately 70 passengers south of Fort Worth. I counted them.
A competitive business enterprise, e.g. commercial airline, intercity bus company, either controls its costs or it goes out of business, as indeed many of them have. Not a government agency like Amtrak. They have a magical way of perpetrating themselves. Why not? When all else fails, they simple turn to the taxpayers to bail them out.
I just checked the Amtrak stats for 2010 listing Crescent most riders for legs.
1. Surprize to me was ATL - NOL
2. ATL - NYP
3. BHM - NOL
4. ATL - WASH
5. ATL - PHL
6. BHM -- NYP
7. ATL - NEWARK
8. NOL - WASH
9. NOL - NYP
Comparsion of this train to others seemed to have much longer most traveled routes in the east than other trains. These numbers changed drastically once the Lynchburg service started dropping CVS out of list and those stations of LYH route diverted passengers away from the Crescent.
Looking at the Crescent numbers it appears that 2 sleepers probably have about an 80% ocupancy? That may be a reason that we never see any Crescent advertising around here. Phoeebe any there in CLT?
Another point would be that I wonder why a business class car is not added to the Crescent? ith most riders ATL - NOL certainly might call for one. Of course may have to wait for more cars? This is another travel class that has no breakdown in performance reports that might give us a better idea of its place in Amtrak stats & plans .
According to the DOT Inspector General's 2005 Report on Amtrak's operations, the incremental costs incurred by sleeping car passengers exceeded significantly the incremental revenues generated from sleeping car passengers.
Although the data is getting a bit long in the tooth, there is no reason to believe that the overall dynamic has changed appreciably. Sleeping car revenues have gone up but so too have the labor costs, maintenance costs, dinning car support costs, etc. associated with providing sleeping class service on long distance trains.
As the IG pointed out, half the dining car revenue on the long distance trains is embedded in the sleeping car revenues, which means that at least half of the costs of operating dinning cars is worn by the sleeping car passengers.
The sleepers may sell out frequently, although no one posting to Train's forums, as far as I know, has detailed information on sleeping car occupancy. Most of what I have read is based on subjective, non-statistical sampling or general observations whilst traveling on Amtrak or down at the station. Amtrak does not make the information readily available.
In any case, the sleepers do not cover their operating or fully allocated costs as well as the coaches, although both of them loose buckets of money. Representatively, the IG found that the operating subsidy for sleeping car passengers on the Southwest Chief was 155% of the subsidy for coach passengers. On the Lake Shore Limited the operating subsidy for sleeping car passengers was 212% of the coach passenger subsidy. On a fully allocated basis, the subsidy for sleeping car passengers on the Chief was 173% of that for coach passengers, whilst on the Limited it was 261%.
Interestingly, the IG was quite open in chastening Amtrak management for not doing a very good job of managing its costs. I wonder what has changed?
Sam1 Do the numbers! They can be found in Amtrak's Monthly Operating Reports. If you think that I am not reporting accurately, then tell me the source of your numbers or show me why my numbers are incorrect. Your just presenting isolated, subjective analysis in most instances. The key takaway from my argument is that Amtrak should not be buying any long distance equipment. Long distance trains are an anchorism. They need to go the way of the horse and buggy.
Anachronisn or no, Congress has (up until now, at least) mandated LD operation (and provided the funding for the new LD equipment).
As long as Amtrak has to -- or chooses to -- operate the long-distance runs, they should do so with the equipment they need.
And again I point out, only Congress can get Amtrak out of the LD business, and ("Tea Party" bluster notwithstanding) it doesn't currentl seem inclined to do so.
Sam1 Amtrak management appears to be trapped in a 1950s time warp. Baggage, dinning, and sleeping cars! For trains that are used by approximately 15% of Amtrak's customers and less than 4/10s of intercity travelers. Again this is a case of not telling the whole story. 1. Baggage -- these cars are limited to 110 MPH. Since many of the LD trains to Florida use them baggage cars limit speeds NYP - WASH. Since NYP - PHL is being upgraded to 160 MPH under a Fed grant the slow baggage car trains would slow the whole fluidity of the route to WASH where PHL - WASH is presently 125. When more trains are on a route the result is all trains go the speed of the slowest. Also there are some trains Amtrak wants to add baggage cars to but does not have the inventory. [ Pslmetto , Pennsylvanian { more later }] Cardinal was just able to bet a baggage car this year. The sleeping car numbers are worse. Just 2.3% of Amtrak's passengers or 15% of the long distance trains users travel by sleeper. 2. Again how can we say LD is limited to 15% when the sleeping cars regularly sell out on some routes { ex. Cardinal , Crescent }. Using only current train routes an additional sleeping car is needed WASH - ATL, lAKESHORE FROM BOS which often looses sleeper if there is any shortage, Pennsylvanian { plans to have a NYP / PHL - Pittsburg - sleeper that attaches to the Capitol at PIT going on to Chicago. Cardinal, Florida trains in winter. The other point is that a number of baggage dorms are being built that will free up regular sleeper space that has to sleep off duty. Most of Amtrak's middle and lower middle class travelers cannot afford a sleeper, which is ironic for a government sponsored railroad that is supported by each taxpayer. 3. That is correct but however if some speciality sleepers { slumber coaches, europpean style cachettes, etc. } in the next order for sleepers maybe there could be a market for them. Certainly was in the past. 4.. Dinning cars -- Again Heritage dinners limited to 110 MPH and new 125 Mph. 5. Heritage Dinners and baggage. Due to age and scaricity of these cars { some over 60 yr old } maintenance costs and availability is much lower that the 87% availability of the whole passenger fleet. Cars break down for parts that are scare or non- existent { due to planned obsolencence in this country } parts may have to be fabricated locally at Beech Grove.
As long as Amtrak is a political creature of Congress, it is difficult to expect it to operate as a real business, however that is defined.
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