I just read on the Trains Newswire that Amtrak has cancelled trains on the Capitol Corridor in New York State, the Lake Shore Limited and the Downeaster service to Maine due to an ice storm. What happened to the days when a passenger train was the only way to get to your destination when the weather was bad? The private carriers touted their ability to get through snowtorms, ice storms, etc. when the planes were grounded and the highways weren't safe. They did so in full page ads in national magazines. They also did it with steam heated cars, telegraph communications, jointed rail and train order dispatching. Is Amtrak, the freight carriers and their employees really getting that soft? Our only choice now is to wait for the highways and runways to clear.
They did it in an era where the industry was swimming with people. You could always "send a bunch of guys" to handle whatever came your way. These would be agents, crew callers, yard clerks, tower operators, etc. Many were already on the spot. Even train crews used to come with more people. Technology has largely eliminated those regular jobs, so there are less people available to "go send" when things get really tough. The "send a bunch of guys" era ended in the late 70s and early 80s. It is a lot tougher to keep going in tough weather these days, but in the east, Amtrak and NS ususally manage to keep their own lines going in bad weather despite the challenges. Those other guys still aren't quite up to it, yet, I think.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
First off, there is weather and then there is weather. The news program has video of a rare snowstorm in New Orleans, with the locals crumping their cars on camera. We sit here in Wisconsin and go, ha, ha, dumb Southerners can't drive when they see a flake of snow. Of course dumb Northerners, we got that kind of freeze-point snowstorm last Winter, a semi truck could not make the hill, and we choked up I-94 with smashed cars, turning it into a refugee camp for stuck travellers for the next 48 hours.
Then one of our rail advocacy people went on about how if we had a train. So, if we had a train, what about it? Freezing rain, freezing fog, freezing transition temperature snow, and a bunch of other weather events can shut near anything down -- the weather can get so bad that you can't walk unless you have skates.
I also wonder if there is something about weather in the Northeast being hard on trains. The Metroliners were rebuilt with rooftop air intakes for cooling dynamic brake grids and other accessories, and this has been a trend for commuter MU equipment as well. The Seldom Powered Vehicles (SPV-2000), Budd DMU's were tried in the East and done in by Winter. Budd had the RDC so what was the deal with the SPV, apart from maybe they were deployed where the weather was unkind?
Another data point was an old book we bought at our Public Library sale of their old books, back some 35 years ago. The title was something like "Daily Except Sunday", and it was a humorous look at being a commuter, which back in the day meant riding the suburban trains.
One suggestion was if you were the type who liked to "sleep in" on days with bad weather, a railroad line powered by a third rail was for you. It was explained that the third rail "could reduce an elephant to a sizzle in seconds" and "accelerate a train like rocket", but that the least bit of snow could leave it helplessly inert. Now many of you can relate to riding Chicago El trains in bad weather, but the author probably had some suburban train powered by third rail out East someplace in mind, with the weather performance embellished by humor.
I would not say anyone is getting soft, and I would accept that trains are certainly more all weather than cars or airplanes, but if you are talking ice storm, that can keep anybody at home.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Ice storm.....while not an ice storm, the roads here are slick in spots with ice as I type this, and I am driving some 109 miles to take the Texas Eagle out of town as Engineer. I will be leaving in about 5 minutes. One often overlooked item is that prior to suburbanization, most rails lived within walking distance of their employer's terminal. It was a small matter to call them and for them to get to work in much worse weather.
Ice on a third rail acts as an insulator. Some rapid-transit equipment comes with ice breakers on the shoe beam in addition to the primary third-rail shoe. The arcing while the ice is being broken up can be a real sight to see.
A few quick anecdotes: In the early days of Conrail, when the bad winters hit Buffalo, they emptied out the offices in Albany, gave everyone a snow shovel and sent them to Buffalo to shovel out the yard. When they still had wreck trains, they'd empty out the division office and send everyone out 'wreckin'. To some of the men, this was like going on a Boy Scout camping trip - they loved it! When there was a local strike, they'd grab as many loose people as they could find and send them to the strike location to keep operations going. When an auto ramp couldn't keep up the pace of loading and unloading, they sent a bunch of guys up from HQ and Juniata to do the work for a week or so. Once employment on Conrail went down from 100,000 to 20,000, there just weren't any people to spare anywhere. The only time anybody got sent out was during a system wide strike to protect facilities.
oltmannd A few quick anecdotes: In the early days of Conrail, when the bad winters hit Buffalo, they emptied out the offices in Albany, gave everyone a snow shovel and sent them to Buffalo to shovel out the yard. When they still had wreck trains, they'd empty out the division office and send everyone out 'wreckin'. To some of the men, this was like going on a Boy Scout camping trip - they loved it! When there was a local strike, they'd grab as many loose people as they could find and send them to the strike location to keep operations going. When an auto ramp couldn't keep up the pace of loading and unloading, they sent a bunch of guys up from HQ and Juniata to do the work for a week or so. Once employment on Conrail went down from 100,000 to 20,000, there just weren't any people to spare anywhere. The only time anybody got sent out was during a system wide strike to protect facilities.
Ahh, the good old days......
When I hired out (too many years ago to mention) the roads that comprise CSX employed more that 250,000 people in all areas of employment from operating, non-operating, freight, passenger and all officical position. Today CSX employs approximately 30,000 people. You do the math. There is not the manpower to throw against the weather today that there was over 40 years ago.
No matter all the technology that is in place to fight the weather. When the weather gets SEVERE, there is no substitute for man power. Men manning shovels and brooms, as well as designated snow removal equipment....all in mass quantities.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
I'd be more inclined to blame the fact that the Hudson River area of NY was without electricity for several days after ice took down many trees and power lines.
The signals are still electric, aren't they?
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
As far as I can tell, the Cascades are still running but late. The Seattle area is having a bunch of "freeze point" snow now...
There was a comment here that the "Talgo" sets were out-of-order still; have not even verified that (I wouldn't want to call Amtrak and bother Julie for something silly). I would be interested to know how they do in snow.
"Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood." Daniel Burnham
Phoebe Vet I'd be more inclined to blame the fact that the Hudson River area of NY was without electricity for several days after ice took down many trees and power lines. The signals are still electric, aren't they?
Yeah, but there are ways to do "belt and suspenders" these days. You can put standby gen sets at the CPs. You can do batteries with solar recharge. You can do coded track circuits. You can do ATCS radio code line backed up by cell phone (most cell phone antennas have back up gen sets) You can clear the ROW so that trees that fall don't block the tracks or wreck equipment, etc.
If you're serious about running in all weather conditions, that is.
oltmannd Phoebe Vet I'd be more inclined to blame the fact that the Hudson River area of NY was without electricity for several days after ice took down many trees and power lines. The signals are still electric, aren't they? Yeah, but there are ways to do "belt and suspenders" these days. You can put standby gen sets at the CPs. You can do batteries with solar recharge. You can do coded track circuits. You can do ATCS radio code line backed up by cell phone (most cell phone antennas have back up gen sets) You can clear the ROW so that trees that fall don't block the tracks or wreck equipment, etc. If you're serious about running in all weather conditions, that is.
Trains do work in the snow ...
All of those things require manpower that is not currently employed by the carriers. The manpower that is employed is doing everything within their power to keep the railroad running as it is.
No one is saying that the current manpower is not doing their jobs. The original point is that there is nothing intrinsic about railroads that make them all-weather apart from a large number of people going out and doing a lot of hard, hard work. It has already been commented upon that railroads have greatly reduced their staffing levels.
Paul Milenkovic All of those things require manpower that is not currently employed by the carriers. The manpower that is employed is doing everything within their power to keep the railroad running as it is. No one is saying that the current manpower is not doing their jobs. The original point is that there is nothing intrinsic about railroads that make them all-weather apart from a large number of people going out and doing a lot of hard, hard work. It has already been commented upon that railroads have greatly reduced their staffing levels.
It goes beyond manpower. Today's railroads are run comletely different than those of even the 70's and 80's. You have fewer, longer trains for the most part; remotely operated interlockings; no rear end crews and definetly smaller crews; no track gangs assigned to 5-10 mile stretches but larger expanses of line; cost cutting measures of no trains on holidays (double time and a half pay?); limited overtime; the railroad serves the bottom line rather than customers (tell them they can wait if they ask); just like other money men, higher up management (investment bankers, CPA's, etc.) looks at the work as M-F with bankers hours. In some respects they are right: today's modern plant don't need all those people because there is no need to be full operation 24/7 except in very rare instances. Any opportunity to trim operations (i.e. reduce hours of operation, reduce manpower costs), the do so. And if the need arises for greater demand, then it will have to wait until Monday morning or the next time the board meets to be discussed. Yeah, the manpower isn't there, but in too many cases, neither is the railroad company.
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henry6 Paul Milenkovic All of those things require manpower that is not currently employed by the carriers. The manpower that is employed is doing everything within their power to keep the railroad running as it is. No one is saying that the current manpower is not doing their jobs. The original point is that there is nothing intrinsic about railroads that make them all-weather apart from a large number of people going out and doing a lot of hard, hard work. It has already been commented upon that railroads have greatly reduced their staffing levels. It goes beyond manpower. Today's railroads are run comletely different than those of even the 70's and 80's. You have fewer, longer trains for the most part; remotely operated interlockings; no rear end crews and definetly smaller crews; no track gangs assigned to 5-10 mile stretches but larger expanses of line; cost cutting measures of no trains on holidays (double time and a half pay?); limited overtime; the railroad serves the bottom line rather than customers (tell them they can wait if they ask); just like other money men, higher up management (investment bankers, CPA's, etc.) looks at the work as M-F with bankers hours. In some respects they are right: today's modern plant don't need all those people because there is no need to be full operation 24/7 except in very rare instances. Any opportunity to trim operations (i.e. reduce hours of operation, reduce manpower costs), the do so. And if the need arises for greater demand, then it will have to wait until Monday morning or the next time the board meets to be discussed. Yeah, the manpower isn't there, but in too many cases, neither is the railroad company.
Well, that's a bit harsh, don't you think?
"The RR serves the bottom line, not the customers?"
Then why is my RR going crazy trying to improve shipment performance? It's just about all we do or think about these days. What's all this "scheduled RR" stuff that's come about since the 70s and 80s?
How, exactly, is the bottom line totally divorced from serving the customer? As RR costs declined in the 1980s, the rates went down right along with them. This is bad for the customer? He would rather have kept the high rates and had more frequent service? He votes with his dollars and he voted "cheaper rates".
NS has operated thru every storm that's hit the property in the past 10 years. No shutdowns for weather. Period. They don't have any more people per ton-mile than anybody else. It's not just about people.
...and all that really works fine for the freight haulers. Union Pacific's heroic effort in the Cascade landlside testifies that railroads are capabale of just about anything. Sometimes customers are inconvenienced, and often long-distance passenger trains are canceled.
Having spent three winters at Cornell; I cannot imagine the efforts to keep the Phoebe Snow running. There must have been more freedom in those days of reliable, all-weather transportation. That was also an era of historically harsher winters, I believe.
I still am uncertain how Amtrak's Cascades are doing in this bad weather. We have a winter storm warning now, (blizzard in Neah Bay) and there's also mention of ice... if some of these giant trees here fall down and I'm still alive, I'd be able to see the trains with binoculars...
Safe and happy travels to all this Christmas!
Maglev ...and all that really works fine for the freight haulers. Union Pacific's heroic effort in the Cascade landlside testifies that railroads are capabale of just about anything. Sometimes customers are inconvenienced, and often long-distance passenger trains are canceled. Having spent three winters at Cornell; I cannot imagine the efforts to keep the Phoebe Snow running. There must have been more freedom in those days of reliable, all-weather transportation. That was also an era of historically harsher winters, I believe. I still am uncertain how Amtrak's Cascades are doing in this bad weather. We have a winter storm warning now, (blizzard in Neah Bay) and there's also mention of ice... if some of these giant trees here fall down and I'm still alive, I'd be able to see the trains with binoculars... Safe and happy travels to all this Christmas!
Yes, back then there were still some old timers around upstairs as well as out on the tracks that thought about service to the customer be it aboard a train or his goods aboard a train. Today the cost is the determining factor as to whether or not a service is performed. If it overtakes the profit or the rate, then it is not performed and will wait until the next cycle.
Your mention of the Phoebe Snow back then underscores the EL's old timers approach to such situations. When it was finally decided in late 1969 that the Lake Cities would be removed there were enough old timers around to hold up the effective date until the weekend after all students would have gotten back to college. A few years earlier, the B&M made a similar decision on the remnant of the Montrealer north out of Springfield, MA, a weekend RDC service to Greenfield for colleges along the Connecticut River, when they waited until after the February between semester break and everyone was safe back in their dorms to end the service. There are horror stories of that time, too, of trains being cancelled in mid schedule, or operated into a terminal in the morning but failing to be running that night. I believe Penn Central was noted for that.
And Oltman, yeah, maybe I am a little harsh, at least overstated. And, yes, there are some realization in some railroads (and American businesses) that doing business by serving customers to feed the bottom line rather than figuring out how to save money to feed the bottom line, is a better long term philosophy. Short term goals for 100% return on investment or fattening the bottom line for resale of the property I think is over. For a while.
Saving money and serving the customer are not mutually exclusive. The only reason we still have ANY frt railroading in this country is the managers were masterful at saving money. The alternative was to have a going out of business sale. Squeeze the cash out, stop investing, and scrap what's left. Mgt is beholden to the board and the board to the owners. The owners didn't invest for fun or out of altruism, they invested to make money.
Nothing has changed.
oltmannd Saving money and serving the customer are not mutually exclusive. The only reason we still have ANY frt railroading in this country is the managers were masterful at saving money. The alternative was to have a going out of business sale. Squeeze the cash out, stop investing, and scrap what's left. Mgt is beholden to the board and the board to the owners. The owners didn't invest for fun or out of altruism, they invested to make money. Nothing has changed.
In my business, the reverse is true, however, and maybe that's why my views are somewhat jaded. But I saw the same mentality dismantle the EL and early CR. CR survived, in fact thrived, but at what cost to so many communities not on the PRR or NYC lines? How are former Erie or LV industrial communities better off when mainline freight is between Pittsburgh and Allentown or between Cleveland and Albany? Things like that form my thinking.
Well, obviously trains are comparable to airplanes in terms of overall reliability. I personally believe that pasenger trains should be looked upon as a foul-weather asset. But here is some sad news about where our inclement weather system is headed:
National Weather Service employees are balking at a cost-cutting proposal that would pull meteorologists out of all 20 air-route traffic control centers across the country -- including Miami.
'If we let this happen, people will die. It's that simple,' said Dan Sobien, president of the union that represents weather service workers..."
Jerry Fox I just read on the Trains Newswire that Amtrak has cancelled trains on the Capitol Corridor in New York State, the Lake Shore Limited and the Downeaster service to Maine due to an ice storm. What happened to the days when a passenger train was the only way to get to your destination when the weather was bad? The private carriers touted their ability to get through snowtorms, ice storms, etc. when the planes were grounded and the highways weren't safe. They did so in full page ads in national magazines. They also did it with steam heated cars, telegraph communications, jointed rail and train order dispatching. Is Amtrak, the freight carriers and their employees really getting that soft? Our only choice now is to wait for the highways and runways to clear.
Paul Milenkovic The original point is that there is nothing intrinsic about railroads that make them all-weather apart from a large number of people going out and doing a lot of hard, hard work.
The original point is that there is nothing intrinsic about railroads that make them all-weather apart from a large number of people going out and doing a lot of hard, hard work.
Paul, I'm afraid I don't see anything in Jerry's original post that says there's "nothing intrinsic about railroads", so what is the "original point" you refer to?
I don't believe anything can ever be all things in all conditions, but there are differences between how weather can affect rail vs other modes. For example, slippery conditions can cause a train to skid past the end of track, but rarely will slipperiness make the train fall off the tracks.
But slipperiness can make vehicles fall off of highways, and airplanes fall off of runways. In the airplane runway case it's more likely that the airplane skids off the end of the runway, like a train overshooting a bumper. But a train can slow down to a safer speed much more readily than a landing airplane can, in fact there is a limit to how much an airborne plane can safely slow down before landing, even if they have ample warning of dangerously slippery runways.
On the other hand fog can make it dangerous for the train through the entire trip, an airplane can fly above the fog, so it's pretty much only an issue during takeoff and landing. But I submit that an airplane's not much use if it can't take off and land.
Patrick Boylan
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Jerry Fox's original point was "hey wait a minute, I thought trains were supposed to work in bad weather" whereas Don Oltmann's original point to which I was referring was "trains work in bad weather if you have enough people to go out and perform cold, wet, and perhaps dangerous tasks", to which the discussion veered in one direction regarding whether current railroad people were being called out for allegedly not being as tough as their predecessors and then veered in another direction where railroad management was being scolded for "listening to bean counter" accountants and not spending their profits on large enough staffing levels "so the job is done right."
There are a number of talking points related to why passenger trains are needed as part of a balanced transportation system or perhaps why our transportation system is unbalanced or national transportation policy is found lacking when "Our only choice now is to wait for the highways and runways to clear."
Passenger trains, operate in weather conditions that shut down roads and airlines.
Passenger trains save on fuel.
Passenger trains offer wider seats and more legroom, and for extra fare, private rooms, not available on other modes.
Passenger trains are a lower-stress travel experience.
Passenger trains allow a person to get up and walk around and congregate with friends or chat with strangers in a lounge area.
Owing to the equivalence between one railroad track and 20 lanes of highway, passenger trains have seemingly unlimited capacity without being subject to congestion delays experienced by highway and airline travellers.
Passenger trains are cost competitive when all of the direct and hidden subsidies of other modes are made known.
Passenger trains are safer than flying or driving.
Passenger trains offer road and perhaps air-competitive travel times on routes up to 400 miles.
Each of these statements is certainly true individually when applied to some circumstances but not other circumstances. A subway track, with one-direction running, block signals, uniform train speeds, and standing passengers easily transports the equivalent of 20 lanes of highway in each direction. A single track freight railroad, however, is perhaps barely able to accomodate one daily train with the seating capacity of a single jumbo jet, especially if that train runs faster than the flow of freight traffic and the expectation is to give it priority. A single F40P pulling 11 gallery cars with all seats filled running at a constant 60 MPH gets a factor of 10 better fuel economy than anything else; that F40P running a commuter route with stops and people getting on and off the train so the train is not filled for the entire route, and taking into account deadheading moves, perhaps gets comparable fuel economy to a 2-person carpool. A sleeping car berth on a long distance train is perhaps of comparable fuel consumption to the much-maligned single-occupant automobile. The New Tokaido line has not had a single passenger fatality owing to a collision of trains or collision of a train with a highway vehicle; Amtrak has had on-train fatalities as well as numerous fatalities of motorists at grade crossings, although we tend to place the blame on the motorists for "being idiots" about grade crossings.
That these statements are true in combination or under all circumstances is certainly not the case. Making trains roomy and adding non-revenue lounge and dining cars works against fuel economy. Running passenger trains on existing freight lines to save the considerable cost of a dedicated passenger rail line works against the freedom from congestion delay, safety from collisions, and increases the level of stress for passengers to whom having the train arrive on time is important.
Likewise, trains can be made all-weather, owing to properties such as the absence of roadway-style slideouts on account of the guiding tracks, but doing this works against trains being cost competitive, owing to the labor requirements of making this happen.
Again, the discussion has veered in the direction that since trains can be made more all-weather if someone hired more people, that railroads or Amtrak do not have the staffing levels as back in the day, and this is further evidence of the "wrong direction" of American society.
I don't know Paul, if all your conclusions stated are true. Or are you summerizing the points made? I believe the main point of railroads being all weather goes to the fact that once railroads were a 24/7 business and the only major public transportation mode for both passenger and freight. Keeping tracks open for passenger trains was as important as keeping tracks open for freight trains and visa-versa. Moving trains was a philosopy of operating a railroad, not moving people or moving freight, those were a function of marketing which had not as yet taken control of operations. More people to do the work was just the result of the then operations.
In the day when railroads were semi-reliable 24/7 operations....all those required to operate the trains, control the trains, and repair the track lived within walking distance of their reporting points. Irrespective of the fact there there were a higher number of employees involved in the operation of trains.....they could walk to work in even the worst of weather and in the era of the day - they didn't have anything else to do under such weather conditions.
Remember, back then we all walked to school, 4 miles uphill each way.
Today, your train crews that live in urban areas are suburbanites like the rest of the people in the area and rely on highway transportation to get to their work location. Additionally the railroads normally require highway transportation to get their crews and maintenance personnel in position to perform their required duties. When it is necessary to transport these personnel on trains there are delays. Unfortunately, railroads have become slaves to efficient highway transportation in more ways than one. When the highways are shut down by weather, the railroads are severely handicapped.
What many don't understand today is that into the mid 20th century you had a job, worked for a company, and there was a mutual agreement/comittment that you and the company were working toward the same goal: providing the service or product the company proffered in the marketplace. Therefore whatever it took to do the job was expected by both sides. It had nothing to do with living such and such a distance, whether you walked to work or flew, you were expected to be available and perform and you felt you had the obligation to be available and perform. Although we are talking trains and railroads here, the same alliances were in force whereever there was an employee/employer relationship. And up to that time railroads were the mode of transporting people and goods: the interstate highway system was just being built so people usually had one--perhaps two--cars per family and over the road tractor trailer hauls were just beginning; the jet age had just taken off. The erosion of rail traffic did begin in the 1920's with the family automobile and some short distance trucking; the interstate highways later cemented thier role in transportation. Remember, frieght went to the freight station in less than car load lots for the public as well as commercial businesses and Railway Express would usually be picked up at the passenger station or adjacent to it. In other words, the world as we knew it relied on railroads and railroads relied on its employees to achieve the goals and perform business of the company no matter what the weather or other circumstances. And for the most part the employees were appreciated for what they did. There were careers not just jobs.
One thing that I like about trains in bad weather, another train is highly unlikely to broadside your train due to icy conditions.
I'm travelling to the NY Metropolitan area this Christmas via Amtrak, NJ Transit, and Metro-North.
I love that this week's horrible weather is not factoring into my travel worries. Will it affect the schedule? Sure! Will it endanger my family's lives? Relative to auto travel, it sure will not!
henry6 What many don't understand today is that into the mid 20th century you had a job, worked for a company, and there was a mutual agreement/comittment that you and the company were working toward the same goal: providing the service or product the company proffered in the marketplace. Therefore whatever it took to do the job was expected by both sides. It had nothing to do with living such and such a distance, whether you walked to work or flew, you were expected to be available and perform and you felt you had the obligation to be available and perform.
What many don't understand today is that into the mid 20th century you had a job, worked for a company, and there was a mutual agreement/comittment that you and the company were working toward the same goal: providing the service or product the company proffered in the marketplace. Therefore whatever it took to do the job was expected by both sides. It had nothing to do with living such and such a distance, whether you walked to work or flew, you were expected to be available and perform and you felt you had the obligation to be available and perform.
And rail employees today, have that same level of commitment for doing their job. They accept calls to work in all forms of bad weather and make every possible effort to report on time for the assignments. However, in today's world all levels of commitment revolve around the ability of the highway system to permit one to get to the desired destination. When one does not own their own snow plow and salt truck getting to ones on duty point can be a matter beyond the ability of mere mortal man. Getting train crews from their on duty points to trains at outlying points in such weather requires the use of trains that are running as normally all the contract carriage outfits declare a snow emergency at the sign of the first flake and shut their operations down in the interest of the S word, irrespective of the actual road conditions.
For BNSF they have a few choke points in the Washington state area.
Stevens pass line can get buried in heavy snow and the crews can have a hard time keeping up. There was heavy wind and heavy snow up there earlier this week. Amtrak probably got stuck. Not to mention getting to and from Chicago.
The Snoqualmie line starting out of Tacoma and running to Ellensburg while not used by Amtrak can get heavy snow as well. It was really bad up there last week according to the WSDOT pass reports. There are alot of narrow gorges and really remote access areas on this line. I've heard some good stories from crews about how deep the snow can get on this line.
Amtrak out of Portland and running east to Spokane to catch the Seattle segment of the Empire Builder can be impacted by high winds and heavy snow and ice. Being that is a really exposed to the element piece of track and the temperature was in the minus column all the time in the SE part of the state I suspect track conditions were not all that favorable. Portland was also having trouble with snow and ice last week. This can lead to no crews being able to report to work and vans like the one I drove for Crew Shuttle services (GMC Safari with AWD + studded tires) having trouble getting around.
Going south out of Portland I read there was a derailment along the route. This can cause a nightmare.
The northwest due to geographic reasons does not have the ability to expand capacity in some areas without significant cost. So you get stuck if something goes really bad.
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