Dakguy201 wrote: How does one find any data regarding the Sunset's utilization? If that is low, wouldn't it make more sense to put it out of its misery and add the equipment to LD routes that essentially run close to sold out, especially in sleeper? Can you afford to do that and risk losing political support from those locations that are being dropped from service?Or is the opposite true -- the lack of daily service and the poor on time performance is the essential problem, and if you were to fix those problems, plus perhaps a real connection at Phoenix, the need for the massive subsidy would be either be gone or reduced to a much more modest level?It seems to me that continuing with the current situation is the worst of the possible choices. Samantha's numeric data is usually very on target, and as it is we should just be buying each passenger an airline ticket for the trip.
How does one find any data regarding the Sunset's utilization? If that is low, wouldn't it make more sense to put it out of its misery and add the equipment to LD routes that essentially run close to sold out, especially in sleeper? Can you afford to do that and risk losing political support from those locations that are being dropped from service?
Or is the opposite true -- the lack of daily service and the poor on time performance is the essential problem, and if you were to fix those problems, plus perhaps a real connection at Phoenix, the need for the massive subsidy would be either be gone or reduced to a much more modest level?
It seems to me that continuing with the current situation is the worst of the possible choices. Samantha's numeric data is usually very on target, and as it is we should just be buying each passenger an airline ticket for the trip.
Information regarding load percentages for Amtrak's trains can be found in the Monthly Operating Report. They are posted on Amtrak's website. The numbers usually require some restating and analysis.
In FY 2007, the Sunset had an average load of 52.16 per cent per passenger mile. A little more than half of the seats, on average, were occupied per mile over the 1,995 mile run from end point to end point. It is possible that the train was sold out (100 per cent) for one or more segments (station to station), or it could have been sold out from end point to end point, but that is unlikely. Moreover, it is probably 'sold out' rarely, i.e. around a few holidays and perhaps a few days during the peak vacation season.
Some folks have opined that Amtrak needs to expand its capacities because its trains frequently are sold out. However, ‘sold out' can be deceiving. For example, the Sunset could be sold out leaving New Orleans or Los Angles. But a significant number of the passengers may be off the train by the time it gets to Houston (9:13 p.m.) or Maricopa (10:07 p.m.). By looking at the load percentages per passenger mile, it is clear that the Sunset is sold out for only a small number of its route segments.
In December 2006 I took the Empire Builder from Milwaukee to Portland, Oregon. The train appeared to be sold out departing Milwaukee. But most of the people had detrained by the time we got to Minneapolis/St. Paul. West of the twin cities the load was very light. And it remained relatively light all the way to Portland.
If the train is sold out, even on a consistent basis, why does Amtrak not add more cars? Management must consider several variables. How many additional people would ride the train if addition equipment was added? And for how far would they go? Is the excess demand a one off or is it frequent? Does the excess demand show a clear and consistent pattern? How much incremental revenue would be generated? What is the incremental cost of adding capacity, i.e. operating, maintenance, and depreciation (capital)? If only one or two more folks booked space on the train once in a while, adding another car would not be a good business decision. The incremental revenue would not cover the incremental cost.
If Amtrak were run like a business, the long distance trains would be dropped. As you point out, it would be cheaper to buy each passenger on the Sunset, with a few exceptions, an airline ticket as opposed to subsidizing their ride on the Sunset. For example, if they flew from LAX to NO on Air Trans, they could get a business class seat for $547, which is less than half the Sunset subsidy.
A real business would spring for the airline tickets because it is a better decision. But Amtrak is a political animal that bows to regional as well as national politics. It will continue running the Sunset, as well as the other long distance trains, baring a cataclysmic event, and they will continue to rack up nearly 50 per cent of Amtrak's losses while generating less than 23 per cent of its revenues and carrying less than 15 per cent of its passengers. That's politics!
"I like my Pullman Standards & Budds in Stainless Steel flavors, thank you!"
If one Amtrak train three days a week "over-taxed" CSX, some serious capacity improvement is needed for freight even without passenger service.
This gets back to what I was trying to say earlier: rail improvements for freight shouldn't hold passanger services hostage. If enegy efficiency is a national priority, if existing rail capacity is a constraint, and if railroads' ability to secure funding in the private sector is limited, then the federal government should provide some kind of assistance.
At the same time, new or expanded passenger services will require additional investments and sharing in the costs for increasing capacity.
Signaling CSX for 205 miles between Flomaton and Chattahoochee would cost $61.5 million using a recent Amtrak estimate for Illinois proposals.
I'm just guessing the 413 miles from Flomaton to Jacksonville would need upgraded track for 79mph passenger speeds and cost another $82.6 million. This assumes CSX has substantial traffic between Flomaton and New Orleans and has maintained track to a level that would facilitate passenger services.
Assuming (I have only the vaguest idea from up in Chicago) 10 controlled passing tracks would be needed and that adds another $50 million.
That work alone brings the cost to $194.1 million. One train? I think not!
By the way, Mobile-Jacksonville is a lot farter than I thought. It definitely needs northern and western (get-a-way from the brown) connections for vacation traffic to the Gulf Coast to augment regional travel.
Harrie wrote: Has anyone heard any rumors when the Sunset Limited will lift the suspended service from New Orleans to Orlando? To go to Delray Beach FL (from Houston TX) this November, AMTRAK is routing me from Houston to Longview, TX, by Motorcoach (Bus) and on to Chicago via The Texas Eagle, then from Chicago to Washington DC via The Capitol Limited, and finally from Washington DC to Delray Beach via The Silver Meteor...for a total of three days!! I like trains, but not this much... I am thinking of Greyhound...
Has anyone heard any rumors when the Sunset Limited will lift the suspended service from New Orleans to Orlando? To go to Delray Beach FL (from Houston TX) this November, AMTRAK is routing me from Houston to Longview, TX, by Motorcoach (Bus) and on to Chicago via The Texas Eagle, then from Chicago to Washington DC via The Capitol Limited, and finally from Washington DC to Delray Beach via The Silver Meteor...for a total of three days!! I like trains, but not this much... I am thinking of Greyhound...
I'd be surprised if the Sunset ever ran east of New Orleans again.
You might think about cobbling together your own route.
I looked at the reverse of your trip:
Try Amtrak to Jacksonville, the hound to Atlanta, then the Crescent and the Sunset to Houston. You'd need a night's lodging in Atlanta and New Orleans, though. (there is an overnight bus to Atlanta which dovetail's pretty nicely with the Meteor at Jax - about 5 hour layover. The bus makes a good connection to the Crescent in Atlanta - about 2 hour layover- and a sleeper from Atlanta to New Orleans is really cheap ~$40) Getting from Greyhound to Amtrak in Atlanta is pretty simple. Greyhound is right at Garnett MARTA station. Take MARTA north to Arts Center Sta, then Rt 23 bus (or simple one mile walk) to Amtrak Sta.
The whole trip would start at 9AM on day one and end at 9 PM of day 3.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
I was hoping that the Sunset would be restored as my family and I would like to travel from Florida to Texas for vacation. I've flown before on a South West Airlines 737 from Texas to Florida. What an uncomfortable, bumpy ride that was! Cramped seats and it seemed that we hit every other airpocket along the way. I had one nasty headache after we landed. Fly again? No thanks.
I don't want to drive and don't want to spend 17 hours cramped in a 45ft MCI bus and eating at fast food joint stops.
I'll take a train any day going that way.
alphas wrote:Wasn't the Sunset Limited the Amtrak train that had the highest subsidy per passenger? Something like $750 per passenger who travelede the entire route? And the last I looked (granted it was a few years ago) there was decent bus service between New Orleans and the major cities to the east for those who didn't want to fly.
The Sunset Limited failed to cover its variable operating expenses by 48.5 cents per passenger mile in FY 2007. A passenger traveling from end point to end point on the Sunset in FY 2007 received a subsidy of $968 before other operating charges, e.g. interest, depreciation, unallocated charges, etc. These charges, when allocated to the Sunset, probably added another 10 per cent to the variable operating subsidy, bringing the total to $1,064.80.
For the first six months of FY 2008 the red ink for the Sunset jumped to 54.3 cents per passenger mile. Thus, the subsidy required to cover the end point to end point loss increased to $1,167.72.
Greyhound has one bus a day from New Orleans to Jacksonville. It takes approximately 15 hours to complete the run. It has two buses a day from New Orleans to Orlando. The travel time is approximately 17 hours.
Southwest Airlines has seven flights a day from New Orleans to Orlando. It has four daily flights to Jacksonville. Delta has one nonstop flight a day from New Orleans to Orlando. The fare is $77. Delta and the other carriers serving New Orleans offer another 59 flights, mostly one stops through Atlanta or Charlotte, from New Orleans to Orlando. Equally good service is offered from New Orleans to the other major cities along the Gulf Coast served previously by the Sunset.
Restoration of the Sunset from New Orleans to Orlando makes no sense. I believe Amtrak management knows it. This is probably the reason the Sunset Limited has not been restored between New Orleans and Orlando. In fact, continuation of the Sunset makes no sense.
I have little idea how restoration of Sunset service between New Orleans and Jacksonville or Orlando would be prioritized. Being a Yankee, I would say the Sunset has a very low priority unless there is a demand for regional services that also share the route, such as New Orleans - Biloxi - Mobile and Mobile - Tallahassee - Jacksonville.
You touched on the question of whether CSX will relocate farther inland. How is that going?
The talk was for some kind of LRT being built on the former grade close to the ocean front.
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