UP's future electric locomotives

[rdamon]

The battery units should help with the loading complaints on the Gensets for switching operations.  Lifespan of the batteries will be another issue.

[YoHo1975]

That's why I said "at least." Most railroads seemed to have hated them, but the Gensets pushed out dozens of older units and lead to some significant reworking of the switching locomotive landscape. They were very impactful even if they weren't successful. Some here have suggested that Battery engines will amount to a whole lot of nuthin. My response is merely that even if they fail, they will mark a major change in ops. And, for switching ops and certain shortlines, I honestly don't think they'll fail.

[YoHo1975]

rdamon

The battery units should help with the loading complaints on the Gensets for switching operations.  Lifespan of the batteries will be another issue.

 

This is another thing. While there have been many issues with the Gensets, it is possible that a Genset combined with a battery unit could be a best of both worlds. I'm personally not sure that's the way the railroads will go. I think it more likely that they will pair them with rebuilt traditional locomotives or single engine 2000+HP Tier 4 units, but it is possible. I think of Railroads like Cal Northern and Sierra Northern locally that are almost entirely gensets or more recent Tier 4 remanufactured units. 

[rdamon]

Think C.A.R.B. "cash for clunkers" program enabled the destruction of Gen 1 and Gen 2 units in CA operations.

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/reducing-rail-emissions-california/locomotive-emission-verifications-technology

[YoHo1975]

Except that the vast majority of the Class 1 switching fleet in California is second and 3rd gen EMD or Second gen upgraded to 3rd gen microprocessor control. Plus a small number of Tier 4 rebuilds. The genset are all gone. Only the shortlines made use of that program extensively and they are the ones still running gensets. And even then, only some of them. PHL has moved on.

[Overmod]

rdamon

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/reducing-rail-emissions-california/locomotive-emission-verifications-technology

That's a useful reference page.  I see a couple of highly interesting details in the "final report" of the NRE genset design (the May addendum) -- can anyone explain what looks like a marked reduction at 'notch 7' in the 9/1500/3000 tabulation (p.8), or whether it is an artifact that the pollution reduction numbers attibuted to NLIMIT are so small (for what I presume is a significant transient-response hit with the system operating)

[daveklepper]

Thanks for the respnses to my question, even if the answers were obvious, and I should have been able to come up with them myself.

[Cursator]

SD70Dude

For better or worse Russia, China, and most of Europe have state owned railway systems.

The reasons why there are electric lines in europa are pretty diverse:

• Switzerland: no coal ressources, lots of mountains and the possibility of hydroelectric power so the decision was strategic (less dependance on foreign ressources)
• Mountainans countries in general: there were no high powered diesel locomotives so the obvious way was electrification (80-100 years ago)
• High Speed Rail: The first TGV (France), the ATP-E (UK) and the VT10.5 (Germany) were all diesel or turbine powered, but more or less every high speed project after those was electric with catenary

All the railways with early electrification have their own power grid out of pure necessaty (16.7Hz instead of 50Hz) or were tapping into the power grid with low voltage DC.

When europe started to electrify there was mostly no good alternative and when you have your network partially electrified, the incentive to continue is pretty high and the way to go from here is with some more catenary ord with hybrid technology (Diesel & Catenary or Battery & Catenary).

The railroads in the US never really started so they can start from scratch. 

The only way I would see a full fledged electrification in the US would be, if the class 1 railroads would work together with the energy companies to map out needs and synergies with the US national power grid (which as I heard is in dire need of repair and strengthening). Still expensive but at least it would help the hole country distributing energy and would pave the way for a better infracstructure in general.

[BaltACD]

Who is going to finance the electrical infrastructure that will be required to support all the necessary energy required to support the conversion to electric road vehicles and railroads, in addition to the increasing usage of electric in the home and office?

[JPS1]

BaltACD

 Who is going to finance the electrical infrastructure that will be required to support all the necessary energy required to support the conversion to electric road vehicles and railroads, in addition to the increasing usage of electric in the home and office? 

The grid is funded by the rate payers. 

 

In the case of the investor-owned electric utilities, the monies to build and/or expand the system come from the capital markets.  In the case of the municipal and co-op electric utilities, which make up approximately 15 percent of the grid, they are able to borrow money in the municipal bond markets, which means a portion of their expenditures are under written by the taxpayers.  In both cases, the debt is serviced essentially by the rate payers.  

 

The conversion to EVs, etc. will not happen overnight.  The managers of the nation’s electric utilities would have time to expand the electric system to meet the increased needs.  And with the world awash in money, getting the funds to do it should not be a problem.

 

What monies the Biden Administration plans to throw into the pot is unclear.  In my view, the politicians should stay out of it.  Infrastructure should be paid for by the users.    

[YoHo1975]

Over the vast history of national infrastructure and even the short history of Capitalism, the Government has ALWAYS had a financial interest in infrastructure. Infrastructure has never been truly left to the whims of the market. Nor should it. IF it is in the national interest to fully electrify American railroads (a question that isn't yet answered) then it would be no different for the government to sponsor that than it was for the government to sponsor the construction of so many railroads in the first place. Or the interstate highway system or any other large capital project that the government has backstopped. Panama Canal anyone? Energy consumption per capital hit a wall in the 1970s. There's a case to be made that a large portion of the stagnation in innovation (broadly aka, outside of computing and the web) compared to the 20th century is a direct result of that. There's a case to be made that we need much much more energy generation. There is also a lot of excitement around battery and green generation to drive that generation. I'm a lowly Electrical Engineer who prefers to be a tech an energy optimist rather than a pessimist, but at the end of the day can't see all the parts, but I do know that markets on their own tend to be pessimistic on the big picture even if individual players are not. All of which is to say that statements like "the government shouldn't be involved" or infra technology should be market driven are ahistoric and overly simplistic compared to the real human world we live in.

[York1]

I don't think the issue is the grid itself.  The problem is supply.

At the same time we are closing coal plants, planning for a move away from other fossil fuel generation, and hearing evironmental demands to remove dams, we are calling for greatly increasing demand.

Covering the country with windmills and solar farms is unlikely to be able to supply that huge demand.

[YoHo1975]

Perhaps, but coal plants have become one of the most expensive sources of electricity. Done in by innovation and the market more so than regulation. So they aren't going to be the answer. Nuclear is nice in places that don't tend to shake a lot or spit lava, but the startup costs, even with red tape removed/reduced are incredibly high and the pushback significant. Solar has dropped the most in price, we're at the point where it's close to worth it to have every single house in america have solar, even if those houses aren't situated perfectly, because the price per watt is so low. And yes, The grid is absolutely the big problem. Our grid is outdated and "Dumb." And by dumb I mean it doesn't have any agility driven by modern technology. It also is outmoded (high voltage DC for the win) But by dumb I also mean political stupid. Like Texas being on it's own for absolutely no technically sound reason, but for questionable political reasons.

[JPS1]

The U.S. government, as well as some state and local governments, have frequently provided low-cost financing as a way to encourage infrastructure development.  With a very few exceptions, the government – taxpayers – expected to be paid back.  And for the most part they have been, although sometimes in services rather than debt service payments. 

 

In the case of the nation's electric utilities, irrespective of ownership, i.e., investors, co-ops, municipals, etc., the debt service obligations are baked into the rates charged by the utilities.  

[rdamon]

The other challenge for the grid is that it is designed to bring power from the large plants to the cities. When you have solar and wind your source is scattered in new areas. Upgrading transmission lines upsets the Nimbys.

+1 on the HVDC shoutout - We do not need another 2003 tree incident.

The move from Natural Gas to Electricity and a few EV chargers in the home will stress the distribution network as well. 

[blue streak 1]

Electric loads have long been a basic demand.  Loads in the past have been  reducing because of several reasons.  Electric motors have become more efficient and now many do not have load factor problems.  HVAC units have a much higher energy efficiency rating.  Alot of old window units still have ratings as low as 5 and are slowly being replaced with units 10 or higher.

Replacement lighting is slowly being replaced by LED light.  My work light location incadescents are about gone as they are used only once a week and subject to breakage. 

Flourescents are slowly going away.  My stock of CFLS just ran out for example.  All the cities around here are replacing street lights with LEDs as the older types burn out.  It is not so much for energy conservation as the costs of a lift's time and labor will be saved in the long run. 

The energy star appliances are slowly becoming a larger percentage of homes.  

All in all energy consumption stayed flat for a long time and now loads are spiking up.  The grids are still using transformers that are not as efficient as newer transformers.  As well very high voltage transmssion lines need refurbishment.  Many of those lines no longer cover demand changes.DThis means many new electric sources are needed.  

IMO the small necular reactor might be the way of the future.  They are more easily made safe when there is a  problem.l  + Neculear essentially run steady for long periods of time  providing a good base load.

[York1]

YoHo1975

Solar has dropped the most in price, we're at the point where it's close to worth it to have every single house in america have solar, even if those houses aren't situated perfectly, because the price per watt is so low.

Solar has dropped in price.  At what cost?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/business/economy/china-solar-companies-forced-labor-xinjiang.html

 

How many U.S. homes are installing solar cells that are made in part or whole by forced labor?  Is that factored into the price per watt?

[YoHo1975]

That is a serious concern. Would you like to go over the conflicts and human suffering tied to the fossil fuel market? https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara/forced-labor-xinjiang-solar

In 2016, only 9% of the world’s solar-grade polysilicon came from Xinjiang. But by 2020 it provided about 45% of the world’s supply, according to industry analyst Johannes Bernreuter.

That is a serious problem, but the fact is that Solar's downward trajectory was already quite steep by 2016, so it is not the forced labor making it cheap. The forced labor just makes it horrible.

[MidlandMike]

BaltACD

Who is going to finance the electrical infrastructure that will be required to support all the necessary energy required to support the conversion to electric road vehicles and railroads, in addition to the increasing usage of electric in the home and office?

 

The expectation is that the vast majority of road vehicles will be charged at night when electric demand is low, so it will not tax the transmission grid.

[York1]

YoHo1975

Would you like to go over the conflicts and human suffering tied to the fossil fuel market?

No, I wouldn't.

It doesn't change the fact that solar energy not only has it's own production issues, but at this time it is not a good answer for the huge generating production and energy storage we need if we are quickly doing away with fossil fuels.

I'm not saying it may not be a future major supplier.

[Erik_Mag]

MidlandMike

The expectation is that the vast majority of road vehicles will be charged at night when electric demand is low, so it will not tax the transmission grid.

That assumes some sort of reliable base load generating capacity. With the rush to shut down fossil fuel plants and an insane push to shut down nuclear plants, I don't think we will be able to provide power for recharging EV's at night. one possible work-aorund is having a MUCH larger roll-out of charging stations at office/retail/factory parking lots so cars can be charged with solar.

[Former Car Maintainer]

If any references to EVs can be inferred to this post...20% of EV buyers returned them.....reason: inconvenient to charge...gbye green new deal...

 

[BaltACD]

Former Car Maintainer

If any references to EVs can be inferred to this post...20% of EV buyers returned them.....reason: inconvenient to charge...gbye green new deal...

Recharging using 110v and 220v feeds are slow and inefficient.  EV users that used their vehicles nominally full distance during the day were not able to get them fully recharged overnight.

[kgbw49]

Vehicles registered in the US in 2021 - 289.5 million

https://hedgescompany.com/automotive-market-research-statistics/auto-mailing-lists-and-marketing/

 

[YoHo1975]

Erik_Mag

 

MidlandMike

The expectation is that the vast majority of road vehicles will be charged at night when electric demand is low, so it will not tax the transmission grid.

 

 

 

That assumes some sort of reliable base load generating capacity. 

 

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/who-needs-baseload-power-or-let-markets-do-their-job

Utilities in the United States have had at least a decade of comfortable experience operating grids with a declining share of baseload power relative to low-cost renewable energy. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, both reliability and renewable energy adoption levels are higher than in the United States; notably, the lights failed to go out in England when the U.K. grid recently ran for a full day without any coal power for the first time since 1882, foreshadowing its planned phaseout by 2025.

Analytically, scientists working for the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) own world-renowned national laboratories, among others, consistently have shown that grids with moderate-to-high (30–80 percent) shares of renewable energy, and commensurately lower shares of baseload capacity, work just as reliably and at least as resiliently as fossil fuel-based power systems, but with lower operating costs and risks.

Utility executives, too, increasingly see the writing on the wall that not only is baseload unnecessary for a reliable grid, but it is financially incompatible with a rapidly changing energy landscape. The CEO of National Grid said in 2015, "The idea of baseload power is already outdated," as consumers look to cheaper resources, closer to them, to meet their needs. An executive from PG&E, one of the nation’s largest utilities, said, "The idea of a large baseload generator that runs pretty much all the time … just doesn’t have as good a fit to the market conditions we expect to see" in the grid of the future.

[York1]

YoHo1975

An executive from PG&E, one of the nation’s largest utilities, said, "The idea of a large baseload generator that runs pretty much all the time … just doesn’t have as good a fit to the market conditions we expect to see" in the grid of the future.

I wonder if he's changed his mind at all after last year's rolling blackouts in California.

[JPS1]

York1

 YoHo1975 An executive from PG&E, one of the nation’s largest utilities, said, "The idea of a large baseload generator that runs pretty much all the time … just doesn’t have as good a fit to the market conditions we expect to see" in the grid of the future. 

I wonder if he's changed his mind at all after last year's rolling blackouts in California. 

greenbiz.com is an authoritative, independent, objective journal without a dog in the hunt?  

Quotes from an unnamed executive are worthless.  Who is the executive?  And what function does he oversee?  Or she?

[rdamon]

Demand based power rates could level out peak load times.  Tesla's Power Wall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall concept would be good for charging on off-peak lower rate times.

 

[YoHo1975]

York1

 

 

YoHo1975

An executive from PG&E, one of the nation’s largest utilities, said, "The idea of a large baseload generator that runs pretty much all the time … just doesn’t have as good a fit to the market conditions we expect to see" in the grid of the future.

 

 

I wonder if he's changed his mind at all after last year's rolling blackouts in California.

 

 

A valid point, but at least part of the problem was transmission related. The rolling blackouts were also far less severe than expected.  

The Company formerly known as PG&E also didn't actually do enough to insure any form of generation due to some really bad planning on their part. They were short renewables too.

 

I'm hard pressed to use PG&E as a good example of anything. Even that quote I had above, that's less interesting to me than the successes in the UK and Europe. 

 

I have good friends that work for them, but anyone above the front line workers is suspect in my book.

[kgbw49]

What are the implications for demand in the evening when 289 million vehicles (the number of registered vehicles in the US in 2021-assuming all are swapped out for an EV) are simultaneously plugging in overnight? Perhaps there is a study somewhere.

A gallon of gasoline is the energy equivalent of 36kWh.