Effects on the Industry if Tier IV is rolled back/repealed

[YoHo1975]

Leo_Ames

 

 

YoHo1975

 

 

Leo_Ames

EMD's demos haven't rolled that many miles and could be impressing potential customers rather than turning them away like I assume we're thinking is happening.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did I miss something? Why would we think these units are not demoing successfully? Has a railroad cut their orders? I know UP didn't go for their option to buy more, but they also didn't put in a further order for GE units unless I missed something.

 

I'd be hard pressed to attribute soft orders to anything other than the current market conditions.

 

 

 

 

I'll answer it with a question for you.

Explain to me if there aren't issues here or issues that are at least assumed to be present with GE's offering and EMD's still in development models, why are we even having this conversation for?

Presumably, many posters here don't think that Tier IV is all it's cracked out to be and thus quite possibly isn't the best thing for railroading, locomotive manufacturers, and the environment itself at this point in time. 

Heck, it doesn't even have to be a product flaw or an issue with the regulations themselves. It could simply be the cost premium that Class 1's aren't comfortable with compared to the already excellent performance of cheaper Tier III models. 

To question what I said is to question the entire point of this thread. There have to be some perceived issues here or this thread would not of received all the activity that it has from some of this forum's most knowledgeable posters where diesel locomotives are concerned.  

So I really don't think I was making the giant leap you appear to be thinking I did. 

 

 

But this is a simple question.

Previous posts cover part of it. The development of the Tier 4 engines for both builders was expensive, further, as has been discussed on this forum multiple times, T4 actually sacrifices fuel efficiency for reduced NOX. For some on this forum, possibly in some board rooms, the social costs of NOX are not a factor and so presumably such a person would see the Tier 4 engines as ipso facto inferior.

That is, an argument with potentially political conotations. We are regularly inundated with anecdotes about how horrible T4 (and T3 before it) are/were for the OTR trucking industry. posts upon posts, yet we have exactly zero news from any railroad suggesting that the now established GEs and the multiples of EMDs out on the road are having systemic problems related to these systems. 

I can add to that my personal anecdote that the shop forces here in Roseville that I know, who deal with T4 GEs every day and have some knowledge of the EMDs from testing have reported nothing problematic in these units. They have different maintenance needs, but that is not ipso facto a failure. They are meeting expectations. 

 

I interpreted your post to be singling out the EMDs as particular failures. There is certainly zero evidence that the EMDs have any systemic, major issues. 

Broadening it out to a consensus that the entire T4 project is a failure. I reject that as well. You can only conclude that if you politically disagree with the stated intentions (meeting specific emissions targets versus max fuel efficieny.)

 

 

Also on topic, Even if the EPA rolled back the requirements, the UP/BNSF agreement with California Air Resources Board would not be invalidated, though, I suspect a more aggressive move to replace mid HP units with T3 would be as effective as T4. Nor as was pointed out, would it change the new Canadian regs. So, There's no evidence of Systems failure in the units and no evidence that the industry is displeased with them.

 

So, I guess I'm implicitly suggesting that the topic is in error in so far as there being something "wrong" with these units. T4 orders have already dropped, because of the economy and because the industry went crazy at T3 fearing GE and EMD would fail, but certainly not been cause for concern on acceptence. 

[Leo_Ames]

You do realize that I've expressed skepticism already in this thread that there's any significant problems here that warrant reverting back to Tier 3 or dropping down a bit to some sort of compromise (Tier 3.5?)?

So I don't really know why you objected to a post that was almost entirely just about my doubts of the need for any change here to accomodate EMD or GE, just to seemingly explain to me that there's little reason to have any doubts about the effort GE/EMD has expended in meeting these new standards.

I trust, for what little it's worth, that both builders have gotten this essentially right and that any lingering issues of significance will soon be engineered out. No indictment of either builder came from my keyboard and I'm hardly in the position to criticize either. 

And I stand by my opinion of what a fair number of people around here think about Tier 4. It's clearly evident just from this thread that there's skepticism around here, including from some well informed users that aren't merely railfans like myself and which know their way around a locomotive and the engineering that goes into it all.

Like I said, if there weren't perceived to be issues here, this thread would've gone no where or perhaps not even be created. Yet here we have dozens of posts on a topic about stepping back a bit from Tier 4 standards.

So I'm confident that my view that there's a perception here that there's some sort of problem with the change from Tier 3 to Tier 4 is hardly an inaccurate take. 

[YoHo1975]

1: I perceived that you were singling out EMD and emphatically disagreed with that, it appears you were not. Mea Culpa.

 

2: If we banned all the OTR truckers from this forum. Nobody would ever express skepticism on Tier 4. :D.

 

Note, item 2 was intended in jest, but one intended to make a point. A number of posters do tend to project that OTR issues with small size Tier 4 diesels into the locomotive space where they don't really apply, at least not completely. This thread is an example of that.

 

This thread exists in some sense for that reason. If you remove all experience from OTR from this thread, what are you left with beyond either political conviction?

[Leo_Ames]

As an observer, I feel that the ultimate test for people on both sides of the divide where the worth of these new models are concerned, is going to be the next 5 years.

For example, if Union Pacific starts to experience a steady uptick in traffic each year and initiates a large scale complete rebuilding of their huge AC4400CW fleet while just giving token orders or none at all in time to GE and EMD, that's going to speak louder than words. 

If we enter more prosperous times after lackluster growth and major declines in coal traffic, and see a disappointing order book at EMD and GE for new power while shops like Altoona are working overtime, it will say it all. 

I personally can't see EMD and GE having gotten it too wrong.

[Shadow the Cats owner]

Gerald we are running those coatings in OTR engines but the trouble is with the particulate matter that strips the freaking thing right off what it is supposed to protect over time.  Basically it gets sandblasted right off whatever it is supposed to protect over time and when it is gone less than 100k miles later that cooler it was protecting turns your engine into a boat anchor as it explodes.  Then your left with 2 choices a 50K overhaul or replace the truck.  Why replace the truck instead of the Overhaul.  We have discovered once you have an EGR cooler let loose short of dropping a Long block into the truck your always going to have issues with that motor as someplace there is coolant lodged in the oiling system.

[NSrailfan8114]

All of that money that GE spent on a Teir 4 is WORTHLESS!

[aegrotatio]

EMD lost their emissions gamble by relying on heat and compression with their 2-stroke engines (and EGR? I cannot find evidence of that, so indulge me).

 

Maybe if the Annoying Orange in Chief will roll things back just enough to bring these engines back, as they're supposedly more fuel efficient and simpler than 4-strokes.

 

I was considering a Duramax diesel engine for my next small truck, but the maintenance intervals, especially for the engine oil filter, let alone the DEF which I'm okay with, tells me don't bother.

 

I don't want to have to send my engine oil out for analysis.  I know it would be a horror show of soot and random metals.

 

[Shadow the Cats owner]

Every time one of our engines gets an oil change done it has an oil analysis done. We call them a 20 dollar tear down insurance policy. Why they can tell you roughly the interior condition of your motor short of pulling it apart. When you see levels jump above a baseline you know your about to have a major failure. That is how just last week we caught 3 EGR cooler failures on 2015 trucks before they happened. Since the EGR coolers where still intact and had not ruptured we saved over 120 grand in repair costs aka we did not have to rebuild the motors. We just had to replace the coolers and EGR valves and some other parts.