ML
It's still far from an impossibility like he suggests it is.
Things are constantly changing and projects like the Heartland Corridor project, which not long ago would've been viewed as a pipe dream, do happen from time to time (And note the taxpayer's investment in some of these such as this one). And electrification is not only far from being devoid of good reasons for it being undertaken where it makes sense, but also isn't that far from being out of reach even with private capital.
Take that analysis and story in a Trains publication not long ago where Conrail's proposal was shown as having been profitable had it been undertaken. The key was that the rate of return wasn't there to justify it. It still would've more than paid for itself, it just wouldn't of happened fast enough to justify Conrail spending limited capital on it in lieu of other projects.
Electrification is expensive, isn't a perfect solution, and with its history and many a false prediction through the decades, it's a fool's errand to predict that it will happen in the next few decades. But is it virtually an impossibility?
Nope...
Electrification may be practical from an engineering standpoint, but not from an economic standpoint, at least not yet. With run-through operation of motive power being the norm these days, I'm not sure that it's that practical from an operating standpoint, either.
I'm still puzzled why we went down this path, but since it's interesting, I don't see the harm...
And yes, the numbers don't work and traditionally haven't in postwar America. But they're not that far away from being justifiable. It's certainly within the realm of possibilities.
I don't have that recent article in front of me about Conrail's studies as an example, but it certainly wasn't that far fetched and it was forecast to pay for itself and would've been profitable. And the payback period wasn't something extremely long-term like 50 or 60 years, either.
And certainly, run-through power is a major hurdle these days just as the double stack revolution also is, adding modern issues that wouldn't of been a problem back in say 1960 to classical problems like the delimmna of still having to maintain separate facilities for diesels in electrified territory for a variety of reasons.
But I for one wouldn't be as confident as to all but proclaim that it's a virtual impossibility. It's not and even if we ignore things like price forecasts for diesel fuel in the future that enhance the argument for electrification, we've seen evidence of just the sort of assistance that could change these numbers to where they indeed can be justified by private enterprise.
And that's public-private partnerships come in, where the government invests taxpayer earned funds to assist in a major capital project owned by a private company that will not only benefit the shareholders of said company, but the American taxpayer as well thanks to cheaper prices, safer highways, higher taxes, and cleaner air.
According to an old newspaper article on the results on their study, it forecasts an ROI of 18.1% over 29 years, an annual operating saving of $84 million for the first 8 years, and a savings of 50 million barrels of oil over 29 years.
This newspaper article also discusses how the government could help make these numbers doable, years before I suspect that the term we've been using in this thread was ever coined.
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1129&dat=19800412&id=TackAAAAIBAJ&sjid=0m0DAAAAIBAJ&pg=3915,2506468&hl=en
The initial capital cost is daunting, but I don't see it as so far fetched as to be considered essentially impossible. Especially with the growing power of the environmental lobby, increasing congestion, traffic forecasts, the financial health of modern Class 1's and their increased borrowing power resulting from it, the thousands of mile of wire going up around the world each year, confidence in the future of American freight railroading, and the general upwards trend on a gallon of diesel fuel.
If it does happen though, I'm sure private enterprise won't be tackling it alone. And I'm also sure that it won't be devoid of its own set of issues past the staggering up front capital cost.
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