solzrules wrote: nanaimo73 wrote: futuremodal wrote: solzrules wrote: Actually I have been reading that the Chinese economy is inching its way towards a 'Great Depression' style crash. That sound you just heard was the collective panic attack from BNSF headquarters.......With a trillion American dollars in the bank, and 200 billion more coming in each year ? Can't see it.A crash in the Chinese economy would mean only 3 or 4% growth.The biggest problem with the Chinese economy is that the government doesn't allow the Chinese currency to be priced according to market - they keep it low in order to insure that Chinese exports are cheap. If the Chinese currency was allowed to 'price itself' so to speak, the result could be a major correction, at the very least. This has been a big bone of contention that we have had with China for years. The problem may compound itself if it isn't allowed to fix itself. This is the basic theory behind a lot of the stuff I have been reading, the details an economist would have to explain (or someone who knows the stuff a little better). IF the Chinese economy corrected in the best case scenario or crashed in the worst case scenario then you can bet it will affect us in a big way. Unlike the Japan mess (remember, we were marveling at their economy at one time too) the Chinese are MAJOR trading partners. If the exports from China suddenly got expensive you can bet that would affect our economy since China has become a huge component. Naturally, BNSF and most other rail carriers would also suffer as a result.
nanaimo73 wrote: futuremodal wrote: solzrules wrote: Actually I have been reading that the Chinese economy is inching its way towards a 'Great Depression' style crash. That sound you just heard was the collective panic attack from BNSF headquarters.......With a trillion American dollars in the bank, and 200 billion more coming in each year ? Can't see it.A crash in the Chinese economy would mean only 3 or 4% growth.
futuremodal wrote: solzrules wrote: Actually I have been reading that the Chinese economy is inching its way towards a 'Great Depression' style crash. That sound you just heard was the collective panic attack from BNSF headquarters.......
solzrules wrote: Actually I have been reading that the Chinese economy is inching its way towards a 'Great Depression' style crash.
Actually I have been reading that the Chinese economy is inching its way towards a 'Great Depression' style crash.
That sound you just heard was the collective panic attack from BNSF headquarters.......
With a trillion American dollars in the bank, and 200 billion more coming in each year ? Can't see it.
A crash in the Chinese economy would mean only 3 or 4% growth.
The biggest problem with the Chinese economy is that the government doesn't allow the Chinese currency to be priced according to market - they keep it low in order to insure that Chinese exports are cheap. If the Chinese currency was allowed to 'price itself' so to speak, the result could be a major correction, at the very least. This has been a big bone of contention that we have had with China for years. The problem may compound itself if it isn't allowed to fix itself. This is the basic theory behind a lot of the stuff I have been reading, the details an economist would have to explain (or someone who knows the stuff a little better).
IF the Chinese economy corrected in the best case scenario or crashed in the worst case scenario then you can bet it will affect us in a big way. Unlike the Japan mess (remember, we were marveling at their economy at one time too) the Chinese are MAJOR trading partners. If the exports from China suddenly got expensive you can bet that would affect our economy since China has become a huge component. Naturally, BNSF and most other rail carriers would also suffer as a result.
Personally, I think the Chinese are doing the right thing with their currency, pegging it to the U.S. dollar. The costs of their goods will go up soon enough, as they run into resource problems and as their people demand a higher standard of living.
I think currency pricing to market introduces an unnecessary variable into international trade that serves only to make it harder for companies and government to make good decisions on trade.
I think currency pricing to market introduces, even encourages, currency speculation, which is just another way for some people to take some of your and my money without providing any product or service.
As a counterexample, we don't have any trading between "New York dollars" and, say, "Alabama dollars," and everything runs just fine.
Maybe it will cheapen those expensive DCC and SOund equipted engines to 100 dollars apeice or even less.
vsmith wrote: Besides its easier to backengineer an electric locomotive than it is a mag-lev...
Besides its easier to backengineer an electric locomotive than it is a mag-lev...
THAT is the explanation on which I'd bet my money.
Could also be that given they are also monkeying with an HST rail system, that after analysing the given costs/benifits, that they finally realized the HST is almost as fast, moves the same amount of people and costs a hellova lot less, using more or less 'off the shelf' technology, just makes better economic sense?
Have fun with your trains
.....And their economy being so mammoth in size, I'd think it would really make waves all over the World's finanancial status....Including ours.
Why can't we bring to their attention of our large status of probably their largest consumer, hence a major force building their economy....and....do a bit of arm twisting to let more of our export products into their country....
Quentin
Actually I have been reading that the Chinese economy is inching its way towards a 'Great Depression' style crash. The Chinese have been keeping a tight lid on their money (I think they try to keep it artificially low to make their exports cheap). The next couple o' years could be intersting. It could be that the higher ups are putting money towards proven technology and good PR, like spraypainting the grass green for the Olympics, for example.
In any event if there is any major deviation in the Chinese money markets get ready for the herd to go running off the cliff.
Returned from Beijing ten days ago. There's a big building boom going on, the 2008 Olympics are on the horizon. If money is scarce, you couldn't tell it from all the activity.
Maglev seems to me a bit like hovercraft. If you don't ever need to stop, it's great.
ART
Hmmmm,
Ya'll sure it ain't that maglev has some practical problems in large scale applications?
"I like my Pullman Standards & Budds in Stainless Steel flavors, thank you!"
Industry ponders why China canned Maglev project
"BEIJING (AFP) - Shanghai's apparent decision to shelve a planned extension of its high-tech train system left industry insiders puzzled Monday, underlining the dilemma China faces in balancing progress with public concern.
Citing unnamed officials, the official Xinhua news agency said Saturday the 4.3-billion-dollar extension of the magnetic levitation train line, or Maglev, had been suspended amid worries the German technology could pose a radiation risk to communities along the new line."
More at.....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070528/wl_asia_afp/chinagermanyrail_070528170818;_ylt=Au5YWXH4Z5LHUdDgzU.W2j.oOrgF
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