2006 RR predictions

[oltmannd]

2006 is here. What are your predictions for the big RR news of the year?

Frt RRs? e.g. CP sells US rails to NS
Passenger RRs? e.g. O'toole to head Amtrak
Locomotive news? e.g. UP orders more 6000 HP ACs
Bizarre RR news? e.g. Mars rover finds NYC J3a

[dldance]

Congress will investigate David Gunn's firing. A lot of money will be spent but the outcome will not change.

dd

[vsmith]

Criswell appeared to me in a vision and spoke, and said...

Short term

Business as usual till post mid-term 2006 elections, then...

Amtrak LD routes slashed by years end
Short distance and NEC route services funding severly reduced leading to the end of Amtrak service on most routes.

The end of transcontinental passenger rail service in the US after 137 years.

Somes short distance Amtrak lines will survive as commuter rail by being absorbed by regional commuter services.

Wholesale sell off of former Amtrak rolling stock, look for Genesis powered double stack trains, and former Amtrak cars scrapped or sold off to 3rd world countries for cheap.

Some scenic long distance routes will still see passenger service in the form of tourist excursion trains such as the American Orient Express, and like the AOE only the most well healed will be able to afford to experience.

Some former Amtrak funding used to bail out current failing airline companies who's lobbiest are generous with campaign contributions to the congress and the administration.


Long term

Demise of Amtrak will lead to an increase in small bus companies servicing the members of the population who cannot afford to fly or will not fly for health reasons and will operate on the interstate routes meaning more busses (often not very safe ones) operating on the nations hwys.

After Amtraks demise, there will be another 9-11 similar event that will close down the nations airline service again, yet with limited short distance rail services and without intermediate or long distance rail service to pick up part of the burden, the impact will be more severe as there will be far less options for those trying to get from A to B, more airlines will again face bankruptcy and some will fold but some will again be bailed out by a government more concerned with getting reelected then with coming up with a realistic national transportation policy that includes any form of intermediate or long distance rail services.

Government will also bail out GM who will continue to emphisis large SUVs and large trucks even as gas hits $3+ a gallon during summer months.

Any future intermediate intercity rail routes funding de-emphisised in favor of short haul air services and increased highway usage inspite of declining air terminal capacity and highway capacity to handle the increases.




Really going out on a limb...? Criswell says....

2008 : Jeb Bush vs Hillary Clinton
Extreme right wing of Republican party dissaffected by the last 4 years of scandal and dissappointed by whats percieved to be having their agenda ignored by a lame duck president runs extreme right wing 3rd party candidate, which splits the party vote to allow an easy Democratic party victory.

Criswell's predictions were accurate 87% of the time (at least the ones he reminded you about! )

[:O][;)][:P][:)]

edited to correct spelling to appease the Grammer Cops [B)][:o)]

[route_rock]

Hillary gets in BNSF better buy a route in Ireland as thats where I am going and I want to keep my seniroity.

[techguy57]

DM&E becomes a small class 1?

QUOTE: Originally posted by dldance

Congress will investigate David Gunn's firing. A lot of money will be spent but the outcome will not change.

dd

Isn't that the truth!

Mike

[joegreen]

QUOTE: Originally posted by techguy57

DM&E becomes a small class 1?

DME already got the go on the new line.............so yes DME/ICE will be a Class 1 railroad within the next year or 2.

I predict a mega merger...........like a BNSF/NS merger.

[techguy57]

Joe- Yeah, I thought I 'd heard that recently about DM&E. Thanks.

I don't know about mega merger, but I bet someone nabs KCS soon. Lots of possibilities there with NAFTA and CAFTA. Think CN could afford it or will it go to one of the US companies?

Mike

[Anonymous]

Guilford Rail will purchase NS and BNSF.

The New rail system will be called Springfield Terminal.

[8D]

[oltmannd]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Murray

Guilford Rail will purchase NS and BNSF.

The New rail system will be called Springfielrd Terminal. [8D]

Or Pan Am?

[bnsfkline]

Guilford!?!?!?!?......OH GOD NO! We don't need any of their bad track here in St. Louis

[eolafan]

Gee whiz, imagine that for all this time I thought it was spelled Amtrak...silly me, now I know it is spelled Amtrack (See above).

[NW_611]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Murray

Guilford Rail will purchase NS and BNSF.

The New rail system will be called Springfielrd Terminal.

[8D]

Someone silence this guy before Mr. Mellon and his associates get any ideas! I like the black-and-white diesels that thunder past my house. As snazzy as the GRS livery is, it can't match up to the Thoroughbred. As for the Gunn hearings, I doubt he'll get reinstated, but I'd really like it if he did.

[vsmith]

QUOTE: Originally posted by eolafan

Gee whiz, imagine that for all this time I thought it was spelled Amtrak...silly me, now I know it is spelled Amtrack (See above).

Amtrak Whamtrak Jamtrak Spamtrak ...Whatever... you got the point didnt you! [:p][:o)]

[Anonymous]

I think Amtrak will make it thru but not without changes.

[Murphy Siding]

QUOTE: Originally posted by joegreen

QUOTE: Originally posted by techguy57

DM&E becomes a small class 1?

DME already got the go on the new line.............so yes DME/ICE will be a Class 1 railroad within the next year or 2.

I predict a mega merger...........like a BNSF/NS merger.

DM&E is almost there, as far as getting a$2.5 billion government loan. Their president has recently said that wouldn't actually procede until some power companies signed on the dotted line. An earlier thread about class 1's noted that DM&E, MRL and I thought one other bigger regional railroad were already big enough to be catagorized as class 1's,but asked not to be, because of the extra costs of paperwork compliance-weird huh?

[DrummingTrainfan]

I'm thinking its possible that some of the smaller almost-class-ones will merge to create another mega-class one.

[Anonymous]

I dont think this will be a year with any big changes, but i do hope Amcrap gets there act together and puts in service from Denver to KC to STL to Indianapolis!

[Anonymous]

i doubt anything will change really. and i hope that one guy's prediction of the '08 election is way way way way way way way way way way way way wrong. an amendment to the constitution needs to be passed.....no more shrubery in the white house.

[Anonymous]

The Chinese National Railroad formerly takes over possesion of BNSF..........



.....and suprisingly, there is no perceptable difference in service levels.


(It's just a joke folks!)

[vsmith]

QUOTE: Originally posted by farmer03

i doubt anything will change really. and i hope that one guy's prediction of the '08 election is way way way way way way way way way way way way wrong. an amendment to the constitution needs to be passed.....no more shrubery in the white house.

Afraid not....Jeb Bush is Dubya's brother, and the current Gov of Florida who's now expressed an interest in running for Prez...[:0]

[eastside]

QUOTE: Originally posted by vsmith

Criswell appeared to me in a vision and spoke, and said...
Long term

Demise of Amtrak will lead to an increase in small bus companies servicing the members of the population who cannot afford to fly or will not fly for health reasons and will operate on the interstate routes meaning more busses (often not very safe ones) operating on the nations hwys.

Indeed, I'd say one of the unrecognized victims of the government propping up Amtrak are Greyhound and other long-haul bus lines. If I were a bus line, I'd demand a more even playing field.

QUOTE:
Any future intermediate intercity rail routes funding de-emphisised in favor of short haul air services and increased highway usage inspite of declining air terminal capacity and highway capacity to handle the increases.

In late 2006 deliveries of very light jets (VLJs), a new type of airplane that is highly economical to fly, will start. This will be a boon to air taxi services that will fly directly between under-served communities, e.g. Fargo to Des Moines, etc. On the contrary, most of these small cities have more than enough airport capacity to spare. This will really sound the death knell of Amtrak, sadly.

[rrandb]

WE built the interstate system for Greyhound didn't we?? [?] How much more pork will fit in one barrell???[?] [2c]

[eastside]

QUOTE: Originally posted by rrandb

WE built the interstate system for Greyhound didn't we?? [?] How much more pork will fit in one barrell???[?] [2c]

The interstate system was built for all road traffic, not just for Greyhound. They could just as well argue that they paid their fair share of the cost of the roads in gasoline taxes and general taxes. Amtrak is 100% funded by the taxpayer, not so with long-distance buses. That's where the unfairness enters.

[rrandb]

QUOTE: Originally posted by eastside

QUOTE: Originally posted by rrandb

WE built the interstate system for Greyhound didn't we?? [?] How much more pork will fit in one barrell???[?] [2c]

The interstate system was built for all road traffic, not just for Greyhound. They could just as well argue that they paid their fair share of the cost of the roads in gasoline taxes and general taxes. Amtrak is 100% funded by the taxpayer, not so with long-distance buses. That's where the unfairness enters.

I'm sorry that i missed the notice the Amtrak fares no longer contributed to there bottom line. They may be subsidized by the taxpayer but not to the tune of 100%. The interstate hyway system was proposed as a way to move the military quickly from point A to B incase of a Soviet threat. If you studty the maintence cost for our hyways its Buses and Trucks that do much more damage than they pay in fuel or road use taxes. If you don't beleive we the taxpayers are not subsidising Greyhound and OTR trucks then you haven't seen our roads in MO. [2c] As always ENJOY

[eastside]

QUOTE: Originally posted by rrandb

QUOTE: Originally posted by eastside

QUOTE: Originally posted by rrandb

WE built the interstate system for Greyhound didn't we?? [?] How much more pork will fit in one barrell???[?] [2c]

The interstate system was built for all road traffic, not just for Greyhound. They could just as well argue that they paid their fair share of the cost of the roads in gasoline taxes and general taxes. Amtrak is 100% funded by the taxpayer, not so with long-distance buses. That's where the unfairness enters.

I'm sorry that i missed the notice the Amtrak fares no longer contributed to there bottom line. They may be subsidized by the taxpayer but not to the tune of 100%. The interstate hyway system was proposed as a way to move the military quickly from point A to B incase of a Soviet threat. If you studty the maintence cost for our hyways its Buses and Trucks that do much more damage than they pay in fuel or road use taxes. If you don't beleive we the taxpayers are not subsidising Greyhound and OTR trucks then you haven't seen our roads in MO. [2c] As always ENJOY

Rider fares are revenues not capital funding, which is what I'm talking about. The government owns 100% of Amtrak and makes good each year's losses. Amtrak is propped up 100% by the taxpayer. When you look at it, each customer to Amtrak's long distance services represents a certain net loss. I'd hardly call that contributing to the bottom-line. Greyhound is a for-profit company and can't operate that way.

Roads may be in poor shape in Missouri, but you can hardly blame it on buses. Ever seen a Greyhound bus lately on the highway? I'd say they represent a vanishingly small proportion of traffic. To say that the tiny indirect subsidy each long-distance bus receives justifies the huge one that Amtrak receives just isn't very convincing to me.

[ShaunCN]

I predict (pretty much a given now) big changes in Southwestern Ontario for CN, VIA, and CSX, abandoments, leases and consolidations of track will take place. and the end of the CASO subdivision is near.

[Anonymous]

UP will lease NS for 999 years, CSX will merge, CN(IC) will buy the KCS and Amtrak will pull out of Chicago entirely and Metra will take over the facilities, including locomotives and cars that were left, after the great Metra locobot and Amtrak locotron wars of 2036!
Craig

[CSXrules4eva]

My predictions for 2006 are:

First and formost CSX will merge with Union Pacific to form..................um......... Chessie System United. (Yea Right I wish).

A locomotive race might take place between EMD, and GE to get the first ever 7,000 horsepower prime mover up and running. Or who knows both companies might decide to prefect the 6,000 horsepower prime mover.

[espeefoamer]

After the dismantling of Amtrak,and the selling off of all its equipment,it will be less than a year before the government realizes that we need a nationwide rail passenger network.A new agency,called Railpax,will be set up and new locos and cars purchaced,costing billions of dollars.This agency will recieve barely enough money to operate,and will have to fight to recieve funding from congress each year.Airlines and highways will continue to recieve mega billions each year.

[Anonymous]

CN+BNSF

then soon after

CP + UP

Perhaps in the next five years, rather than next year.