Mergers who would survive; who would not

[gabe]

QUOTE: Originally posted by cbq9911a

How about taking it from another angle - considering the components of BN:

Burlington - Alive due to Powder River coal.
Great Northern - Alive
Northern Paciic - Dead
Frisco - Don't Kmow
SP&S - Dead as a company, but alive as a part of GN.

I can't argue with that. But it would really affect the way things were shaped on the East end.

Gabe

[cbq9911a]

How about taking it from another angle - considering the components of BN:

Burlington - Alive due to Powder River coal.
Great Northern - Alive
Northern Paciic - Dead
Frisco - Don't Kmow
SP&S - Dead as a company, but alive as a part of GN.

[gabe]

Dan,

(1) I hope Mark does come in and kick me around on this one. I am kind of missing those sorts of beatings--they are very educational.

(2) I don't see how Conrail would have died. Wasn't it doing fairly well before the buyout? It certainly has an attractive core.

(3) When I say don't make it I mean liquidated in bankruptcy. So that would probably affect the survivors, who would probable be doing the buying.

Thanks for responding.

Gabe

[dharmon]

Hmmm...no expert either.....and when MWH comes in and slaps us around.......oh well....I can see several of the road merged with different partners...

(1) Southern RR - Survivor but would eventually absorb someone else (Family lines?)
(2) N&W RR - survived
(3) Conrail - Agree with Don
(4) L&N & (5) Seaboard RR - I still see the Family Lines occuring ..then possibly as a part of SRR.
(6) C&O - survived barely, B&O a part of Conrail maybe?
(7) ICG - maybe with KCS
(8) Wisconsin Central - no call
(9) UP - alive and kicking
(10) Mopac - alive, picking up part of SP TX routes
(11) Western Pacific - probably dead
(12) Santa Fe & (13) Southern Pacific - I'd have predicted eventual merger..but spin off routes as a part of the deal (UP, MoPac, BN)
(14) Frisco - no call
(15) BN - alive - can you say powder river
(16) Chicago North Western - dead
(17) CN - alive
(18) SOO - dead ..agree with Don ...a part of CP's gains in the US

[gabe]

QUOTE: Originally posted by oltmannd

Okay. Let me try:

(1) Southern RR - survived. The CNO&TP plus growth in the south should have been enough to keep going
(2) N&W RR - survived. COAL! plus Detroit
(3) Conrail - A close call, but having North Jersey Intermodal franchise + growth in intermodal might have been just enough
(4) L&N - survived, maybe in shrunken state - coal
(5) Seaboard RR - with the ACL, probably survived. w/o maybe not.
(6) C&O - with the B&O dead, w/o the B&O, maybe there is enough coal to balance out competitive disadvantage with N&W
(7) ICG - belly up
(8) Wisconsin Central - you mean the original SOO - probably belly up, or at least in a much smaller state
(9) UP - they will never die, no matter how badly they screw up - great routes and markets
(10) Mopac - live as long as they have the UP on the west end
(11) Western Pacific - probably dead - bridge routes do poorly in dereg environment
(12) Santa Fe - Intemodal franchise Chic - LA should be enough to keep them going
(13) Southern Pacific - alive, but much shrunken. UP and ATSF eat them alive
(14) Frisco - same as Mopac
(15) BN - alive - can you say powder river
(16) Chicago North Western - alive unless UP finds a better way from Omaha to Chic - which they just might
(17) CN - alive
(18) SOO - the old MILW - dead

I didn't give this too much thought. Tell me where I'm all wet. I won't be offended!!!

Don,

I wouldn't be so arrogant to call you all wet. I consider your guess at least as good, probably better than mine.

I largely agree with your contentions; but here are the few areas where I disagree:

(3) I think Conrail survives, and survives well.
(5) I completley agree with your Seaboard contention; but I was including the ACL--I definitely think it could not have survived without the ACL.
(6) I don't think the C&O makes it under any circumstance--I think it is part of CSX's problem right now.
(7) I think the IC survives--just like it did, it sheds its unprofitable lines and keeps its attractive trunk. In fact, I think the IC is the model for saying the consolidation of the industry was unnecessary.
(8) I think the Wisconsin Central can and did survive.
(13) I think the SP is the model--aside from the WP--for the line that couldn't make it. You can argue that UP might not be able to pull it out of its mess. I also think the industry would have been better off if the SP was disolved in bankruptcy rather than merger.

Remember, when I say not survive, I am not necessarily contending a single mile of track would be pulled up. I just mean it wouldn't survive under its own flag and its lines would be divided/liquidated in bankruptcy.

Thanks for responding,

Gabe

[gabe]

QUOTE: Originally posted by spbed

In the case of the UPRR/CNW you are aware that the UPRR was a large shareholder in the CN & W long before they merged? [:o)][:)][:p]

Originally posted by gabe
[

Their engines were yellow and green and their wheels went round and round too. In other words, so?

[8D][:p][:D][:o)][:o)][:o)]

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