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Is a railroad to Alaska crazy talk? I think so.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 6:44 AM

York1
Calls were made to extend the branch more than 1,000 miles (1,600 km) north through the Yukon and into Alaska to join the federally-owned Alaska state railroad.[27] An Alaska state study outlined numerous economic benefits from developing mineral resources and suggested it could become a trunk line to Alaska ports.[28] Although preliminary studies showed the project financially feasible and environmentally sound, the BC government displayed no appetite for further financial commitments.[29] It regarded financing as primarily the responsibility of the U.S. federal and Alaskan governments, with some contribution by the Canadian government.[30] The prohibitive $2-billion cost put an indefinite damper on building the link.[31]
 

 
Here is a link to a study that lists many of the economic benefits of a rail connection:
 
 
I wonder if this is the one referenced in Wikipedia.  This won’t satisfy or make Murphy happy since it lists most if not all of the “whys” while avoiding the “why nots”.  The study is also just a bit over 10 years old.
 
One thing, however, really jumped out at me.  If you scroll down, you can see a map on page 2 which shows the current extent of the track ending at Delta Junction.  Oh really?  I thought the track ended at “North Pole”.  Or, am I mistaken about that?
 
The other day I found a webpage from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks that also referenced a study but now I can’t seem to find that any more.  Perhaps it was the same study anyhow since I do remember 2012 was referenced.
 
Cleary, the idea of an Alaskan rail connection is very much alive and is probably not going away anytime soon.  But, of course, that by no means should imply that it will ever actually happen.
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Posted by Backshop on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 6:55 AM

A goal without a plan is just a dream.

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Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 7:11 AM

There's crazy, then, there's crazy..

1. mentally deranged, especially as manifested in a wild or aggressive way.

"Stella went crazy and assaulted a visitor"
 
 
  1. 2.  extremely enthusiastic.
    "I'm crazy about Cindy". 
     
    Methinks this topic refers to definition number two...

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Posted by NKP guy on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 8:23 AM

MidlandMike
Any politician who tries to explain why a rail connection to Alaska would be in the national interest, would be drowned out by all the populists from everywhere (except Alaska) jumping all over the "Railroad-to-Nowhere".

   Unless that politician was the late "Bud" Shuster of Pennsylvania.  If Shuster had been an Alaska politician, the Alaska Railroad would not only be completed to the lower 48, it would be double-tracked, electrified, and have twice-daily Amtrak service.  Or there'd be a 6-lane Interstate. 

  

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 8:24 AM

Backshop

A goal without a plan is just a dream.

 

True enough.  But in this case there is both a goal AND a plan (actually more than one plan) but it's just that there is no money.  :(

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 8:27 AM

Murphy Siding

I was born in Alaska. We moved away in 1972 when I was 11. Alaska is a beautiful mix of mountains, water and cold. If you found the money to build the most expensive freight railroad of all time, you would still have no traffic to make it worth the effort.

 

Murphy,

I would really be most interested in hearing about some of your experiences and memories in and from Alaska.  Did you ever go back again since you left at age 11?

If you would be so inclined you can either P.M. me or send it here:

fredmcain2003@yahoo.com 

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 9:04 AM

Definition number 2... but all about the money, not building the actual railway.

With respect to the planning, see the Van Horne Institute 'pre-feasibility study' issued in early 2016:

http://www.vanhorneinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Alberta-to-Alaska-Railway-Pre-Feasibility-Study.pdf

With respect to the peculiar twists and turns in the financing -- with details that weren't particularly well-reported in the 'lower 48' ...

https://g7grailway.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Amended-Statement-of-Claim-filed-on-June-28-2021-00859525xC0163.pdf

Probably-important details to note here:

1) Heavy First Nations participation, both in development and ultimate ownership.

2) G2G (presumably after being cut off from BFI) entering negotiations with Chinese interests to finance the actual planning and development of their alternative.  (Presumably this would have been facilitated by Belt and Road, but it would have been interesting to see if Trump would have issued the permit for a railway financed that way, regardless of nominal ownership...)  To me that's the only way any railroad of this type would ever be financed.

3) Bitumen export was a principal driver in the G7G alternative -- now largely if not totally deprecated.  Presumably development of container-bridge traffic from great-circle shipping from Asia was a major anticipated revenue source... likewise, far less of a priority today and possibly shrinking still further if "economic trends" such as nearshoring gain much traction.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 9:48 AM

Overmod

Definition number 2... but all about the money, not building the actual railway.

With respect to the planning, see the Van Horne Institute 'pre-feasibility study' issued in early 2016:

http://www.vanhorneinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Alberta-to-Alaska-Railway-Pre-Feasibility-Study.pdf

 

"Overmod",

This study also provides a map on page 7 which clearly indicates that the ARR reaches Delta Junction but I cannot find any clear evidence that it extends any farther east than the air force base near "North Pole".

I did some looking on "Google Earth" and it would appear to me that the right-of-way may have been graded to Delta Jct but there is no track on it.  This presents somewhat of a mystery.

If the bed for a future rail line was indeed graded as far as Delta Jct, who did that?  Was it the ARR?  The A2A or someone else?

Another mystery to me is WHY the A2A filed for bankruptcy.  I don't understand what kind of possible expenses they could have racked up.  All I can see that they really spent any kind of money on was to put up a nice website.  It's beginning to look to me as if the A2A was just a money scheme.  If so, that shouldn't have happened.  There was a lot of that going on with railroads in the 1800s but surely not today.  But, maybe so.

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 1:45 PM

I've had the sense all along that the "Canadian" participation in this little exercise would be as little, financially and politically, as possible, and framed as much as possible in terms of First Nations 'reparations' and support.  No American company or consortium would even consider a line that length across a foreign country with that kind of weather; the Chinese likely wouldn't be tolerated if Americans tried any sort of joint venture, and probably not with a purely Anglo/Quebecois consortium.  You will note that the First Nations involved in G7G rather promptly went to the Chinese when their idea was suborned and their IP pirated; I don't know firsthand how far those talks went, and I'd be highly suspicious that the First Nations might be being 'set up' as so many of these other Belt and Road-containing countries are, to have to peddle a considerable or total stake in ownership to the foreign financing somewhere down the line when the huuuuuuge profits fail to eventuate...

The section from the air-force base to the Canadian border wouldn't be fully built out until the principal part of the trunk across Canada was nearly or wholly complete and ready to open to traffic.  It might be interesting to see how the Chinese would expect that section to be permitted and financed -- I doubt we'd tolerate the same level of Chinese participation "on American soil".

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Posted by Backshop on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 3:37 PM

Fred M Cain

 

 
Backshop

A goal without a plan is just a dream.

 

 

 

True enough.  But in this case there is both a goal AND a plan (actually more than one plan) but it's just that there is no money.  :(

 

Money has to be part of the plan.  If your goal is to go to college but your plan doesn't state how you're going to pay for it, it's just a dream.

Until miners, financiers, a world class construction company and others come together, it's just a dream.

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 6:11 PM

In the immortal words of Jerry McGuire

"SHOW ME THE MONEY!"

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 7:32 PM

Fred M Cain

 

Another mystery to me is WHY the A2A filed for bankruptcy.  I don't understand what kind of possible expenses they could have racked up.  All I can see that they really spent any kind of money on was to put up a nice website.  It's beginning to look to me as if the A2A was just a money scheme.  If so, that shouldn't have happened.  There was a lot of that going on with railroads in the 1800s but surely not today.  But, maybe so.

 

I think it has something to do with this:
 
Alaska-Alberta rail project may have a problem: regulators are investigating its financier
 
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Posted by MidlandMike on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 8:47 PM

I think the only "railway" construction between Eielson AF Base and Delta Junction is a substantial combination road-rail bridge over the Tanana River that only has the road surface so far.  It's used by the military.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 10:18 PM

Fred M Cain

 

 
York1
Calls were made to extend the branch more than 1,000 miles (1,600 km) north through the Yukon and into Alaska to join the federally-owned Alaska state railroad.[27] An Alaska state study outlined numerous economic benefits from developing mineral resources and suggested it could become a trunk line to Alaska ports.[28] Although preliminary studies showed the project financially feasible and environmentally sound, the BC government displayed no appetite for further financial commitments.[29] It regarded financing as primarily the responsibility of the U.S. federal and Alaskan governments, with some contribution by the Canadian government.[30] The prohibitive $2-billion cost put an indefinite damper on building the link.[31]
 
 

 

 
Here is a link to a study that lists many of the economic benefits of a rail connection:
 
 
I wonder if this is the one referenced in Wikipedia.  This won’t satisfy or make Murphy happy since it lists most if not all of the “whys” while avoiding the “why nots”.  The study is also just a bit over 10 years old.
 
One thing, however, really jumped out at me.  If you scroll down, you can see a map on page 2 which shows the current extent of the track ending at Delta Junction.  Oh really?  I thought the track ended at “North Pole”.  Or, am I mistaken about that?
 
The other day I found a webpage from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks that also referenced a study but now I can’t seem to find that any more.  Perhaps it was the same study anyhow since I do remember 2012 was referenced.
 
Cleary, the idea of an Alaskan rail connection is very much alive and is probably not going away anytime soon.  But, of course, that by no means should imply that it will ever actually happen.
 

Well, it's not a matter of what makes me happy. It's more a matter of this never being economicaly feasible. Go to Wikipedia and type in Alaska to Canada railroads. The was a good overview of 125 years worth of people trying to make it work. 

Some interesting things I surmised from those articles:

-The cost could be $20 to $30 billion.

-The length is unclear. Some say 1,000 miles, others say 1,600 miles. that's about the same ratio of comparing kilometers to miles, so hmmm.

-Some study from the 60's suggested the line would need $30 milion per year subsidy by 1980. With inflation, that would be around $54 million today- $1,000,000 per week!
- There's no infrastruct there now for mines, mills, etc. That would all have to be built from scratch. Those industries would then have to compete with existing competitors that have lower cost structures and are 1000+ miles closer to their markets.

-The lumber idea is a no-go. Trust me, I'm a lumber guy. Beca of the climate, the trees are smaller and are 1000+ miles further from the markets.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, May 10, 2023 10:22 PM

To me, the A2A deal resembles the DM&E Railroad's plan to extend in the Powder River Basin. They couldn't get anybody to put up the money because people who had money to invest didn't think it was viable. 

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Thursday, May 11, 2023 11:44 AM

MidlandMike

I think the only "railway" construction between Eielson AF Base and Delta Junction is a substantial combination road-rail bridge over the Tanana River that only has the road surface so far.  It's used by the military.

Mike,

It kinda appears to me as though they may have done some grading of the roadbed as well, how much, I don't know.

Google Earth satellite views seem to show a line largely running parallel to the highway north and west from Delta Junction.  Farther to the northwest it leaves the highway and later approaches the river.

Here is a Google Earth "street view" taken on the northwest side of Delta Jct:

https://www.google.com/maps/@64.1293389,-145.7814076,3a,75y,148.84h,69.26t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sEOv7bDI_E6nULdQ-PAzEkA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 

That sure looks like a planned railroad crossing to me.  As the stop signs clearly indicate, some people are evidently using it as a road but there is really no logical reason to have a road on that alignment.

Question:  Was getting money from Joe Biden's massive infrastructure bill a possible option?  If not, why not?

The Port MacKenzie branch near Anchorage has also been held up do to lack of funds.  According to one person's personal opinion on a different forum, a better case could actually be made to complete the Port MacKenzie branch.  

Couldn't Biden and Congress help with that?  My guess is that these projects might not be quite "green" enough.  You see, if they would apply for federal infrastructure funds to pay for a new downtown streetcar line in Fairbanks or Anchorage, powered entirely by carbon-free energy, they might just get that~!  But a new Diesel-powered railroad running through the woods ~ ? HA ~ ! Dream on!

Ah, I'm afraid I wax facetious.

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Posted by Overmod on Thursday, May 11, 2023 12:10 PM

Fred M Cain
... if they would apply for federal infrastructure funds to pay for a new downtown streetcar line in Fairbanks or Anchorage, powered entirely by carbon-free energy, they might just get that~!  But a new Diesel-powered railroad running through the woods ~ ?

You may have noticed that even a diesel-powered railroad through California isn't going to be supported past 2035.  And, as noted, no amount of 'new railroad through the woods' is worth a crap without the 1000-odd miles through Canada, something no amount of Biden infrastructure funds would be used for.  (The same is true for any putative quick connection from Alberta to lines within the United States capable of supporting the anticipated traffic 'east and south')

I would assume that, absent the First Nations participation and national guarantees to prevent Chinese expedience, the opportunity cost of the G7G/A2A line would be greater, probably orders of magnitude greater, than current Canadian government would consider.  Update the Van Horne Institute plan to modern and prospective conditions, and use typical recent inflation figures as a multiplier, and if that works out with adequate ROI, we can more seriously discuss this.

Power would be battery-hydrogen dual-mode-lite to be zero-carbon, and Canada is working on the pieces that would be necessary -- they, and their financiers, don't have a sensible clue about how such power would be reasonably built and operated, but they'd figure it out by the time the track was complete.  Some combination of proper catenary and smart third rail would be built as warranted... at still higher expense, but at least some of the power distribution to the 'online revenue sources' could be facilitated that way.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Thursday, May 11, 2023 12:31 PM

Overmod,

Actually, my tongue-in-cheek remarks about obtaining federal infrastructure funding refer only to the air force base - Delta Jct extension and the Port MacKenzie branch.  I might have made my remarks unclear.

Obviously there's no way to get infrastruture funds from Washington to build a line through Canada to the lower 48 states.  If the Canadian government doesn't help with that - it will just never get built, that's all.

I have been somewhat following the thread on California's plans.  I did opine that they might get shot down in court but we'll have to see.  Maybe not.

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Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, May 11, 2023 7:36 PM

Fred M Cain
It kinda appears to me as though they may have done some grading of the roadbed as well, how much, I don't know. Google Earth satellite views seem to show a line largely running parallel to the highway north and west from Delta Junction.  Farther to the northwest it leaves the highway and later approaches the river. Here is a Google Earth "street view" taken on the northwest side of Delta Jct: https://www.google.com/maps/@64.1293389,-145.7814076,3a,75y,148.84h,69.26t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sEOv7bDI_E6nULdQ-PAzEkA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656  That sure looks like a planned railroad crossing to me.  As the stop signs clearly indicate, some people are evidently using it as a road but there is really no logical reason to have a road on that alignment.

I noticed in streetview there was a circular pipeline marker to the right.  I followed the ROW to the south and came upon an Alaska Pipeline pumping station.  I followed the line to the north, and at Big Delta I came upon where the pipeline emerges from underground, and starts running above ground to avoid melting permafrost.

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, May 11, 2023 9:05 PM

If somebody(s) can be convinced to part with enough money to make it a reality - it will happen.  What that convincing 'story' will be remains to be seen.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, May 11, 2023 11:34 PM

Open railway map show  track going past delta thru the airbase about 4000 feet NE parallel to the NE of the runway past air base, parallel to quary road and stopping parallel to Mullis road about 4000 feet due east of base hanger..  Map shows active crossings to end, but trackage in doubt!

OpenRailwayMap

That end is about 2000 air miles from NENA on hwy 35 Mckensie hwy.  In BC the tracks or ROW extend to Muskwa just south of Ft. Nelson.  !!~~ 1500 air miles to air base.  Also with some track work the narrow gauge White Pass & Yukon could connect with the standard gauge RR.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Friday, May 12, 2023 6:18 AM

Mike,

Ah, yes~!  A pipeline.  I didn't think of that.  That is a good explanation.  Had I just followed the line south and east of Delta Jct, I would've seen that it's not intended as a future railbed.  However, some of the pipeline's right-of-way might be able to accommodate a railroad but I don't know that.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Friday, May 12, 2023 6:26 AM

blue streak 1

Open railway map show  track going past delta thru the airbase about 4000 feet NE parallel to the NE of the runway past air base, parallel to quary road and stopping parallel to Mullis road about 4000 feet due east of base hanger..  Map shows active crossings to end, but trackage in doubt!

OpenRailwayMap

That end is about 2000 air miles from NENA on hwy 35 Mckensie hwy.  In BC the tracks or ROW extend to Muskwa just south of Ft. Nelson.  !!~~ 1500 air miles to air base.  Also with some track work the narrow gauge White Pass & Yukon could connect with the standard gauge RR.

 

Blue Streak,

Thanks for sharing the map.  I hadn't seen this one before.  I'm not sure how accurate it is, though, as you stated yourself, some of the trackage around the Eielson Air Force Base may be in doubt.

I also noted that the WP&Y is not indicated. Perhaps that might be because the WP&Y is considered to be a "tourist road" and they don't show tourist lines.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Friday, May 12, 2023 6:45 AM

blue streak 1

Open railway map show  track going past delta thru the airbase about 4000 feet NE parallel to the NE of the runway past air base, parallel to quary road and stopping parallel to Mullis road about 4000 feet due east of base hanger..  Map shows active crossings to end, but trackage in doubt!

<SNIP>

Here is a Google Earth Street View taken just inside the air base on its northwest side:

https://www.google.com/maps/@64.7094275,-147.1445046,3a,75y,49.74h,83.08t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s43LEJhpgUxrlYHH_s5tP9g!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3D43LEJhpgUxrlYHH_s5tP9g%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D3.5606878%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656!5m1!1e4 

As you can see, the track appears to be active but is not exactly in what might be described as tip-top shape.  If this were to become part of a connection to the lower 48, this stretch of track would also surely need to be rebuilt.

I think we can all agree that if the connection to the lower 48 states would ever get built, it would be a huge, massive infrastructure project of historic proportions.

Although I would love to see it happen for a couple of different reasons, I am nevertheless realistic to see that this is extremely unlikely to happen during our lifetimes - if ever.  What might just possibly precipitate it would be some kind of a now unforeseen "game changer".  Extremely unlikely but not impossible by any means.

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Posted by diningcar on Friday, May 12, 2023 7:58 AM

Isn't it time to drop this post? Nothing significant is being added.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Friday, May 12, 2023 8:32 AM

diningcar

Isn't it time to drop this post? Nothing significant is being added.

 

Well, I mean, yes and no.  First of all a couple of people added some new and interesting information yesterday.  So, that'd be a no. 

However, I personally no longer have anything to add at this time, so I'll probably drop visiting the thread but I'd like to at least have the option of revisiting it again maybe in a year's time or whatever just in case new information might manifest itself.

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Posted by Backshop on Friday, May 12, 2023 8:53 AM

I'm doing an Alaska Railroad trip from Fairbanks to Seward in a week, so I've been doing a little bit of research. Right now, the ARR only has 51 locomotives.  When you subtract the ones that pull the passenger/sightseeing trains, there seems to be relatively few hauling natural resources. That should tell you something right there. If enough were located near the ROW, I'm sure they would be transported down to one of the ports and loading infrastructure built there.  That would be a lot cheaper than building a long railroad through Canada.

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Posted by Fred M Cain on Friday, May 12, 2023 9:31 AM

Backshop

I'm doing an Alaska Railroad trip from Fairbanks to Seward in a week, so I've been doing a little bit of research. Right now, the ARR only has 51 locomotives.  When you subtract the ones that pull the passenger/sightseeing trains, there seems to be relatively few hauling natural resources. That should tell you something right there. If enough were located near the ROW, I'm sure they would be transported down to one of the ports and loading infrastructure built there.  That would be a lot cheaper than building a long railroad through Canada.

 

"Backstop",

I think that sounds like an absolute blast.  Please post something either on this thread or another and tell us how it went.  Some pictures would be nice too.  I hope you have good weather.  Checking Accuweather for Fairbanks this morning, it looks nice. Cool, but I like it cool.

Good luck ~ !

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Posted by MidlandMike on Friday, May 12, 2023 7:05 PM

blue streak 1

Open railway map show  track going past delta thru the airbase about 4000 feet NE parallel to the NE of the runway past air base, parallel to quary road and stopping parallel to Mullis road about 4000 feet due east of base hanger..  Map shows active crossings to end, but trackage in doubt!

OpenRailwayMap

That end is about 2000 air miles from NENA on hwy 35 Mckensie hwy.  In BC the tracks or ROW extend to Muskwa just south of Ft. Nelson.  !!~~ 1500 air miles to air base.  Also with some track work the narrow gauge White Pass & Yukon could connect with the standard gauge RR.

 

Open Ry Maps shows the line going thru North Pole and ending at Eielson AF Base.  Delta Junction is 70 miles to the SE passed that.

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Posted by MJ4562 on Saturday, May 13, 2023 10:19 AM

Reading this thread I can't help but think about the FLEC Key West extension. 

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