Psychot... and therein lies the pernicious nature of conspiracy theories. The naive and gullible will seize on what they perceive to be a grain of truth and use it to buy into the entire mess, lock, stock, and barrel.
Although, as the FB meme says, we have a problem with finding new conspiracy theories, as all the current ones are turning out to be true...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tree68 Convicted One I believe there are "conspiracy nuts", as well as "anti-conspiracy" nuts. And the truth is usually found somewhere in between. Likewise, I believe that conspiracy theories, like legends, usually have some modicum of truch about them.
Convicted One I believe there are "conspiracy nuts", as well as "anti-conspiracy" nuts. And the truth is usually found somewhere in between.
I believe there are "conspiracy nuts", as well as "anti-conspiracy" nuts. And the truth is usually found somewhere in between.
Likewise, I believe that conspiracy theories, like legends, usually have some modicum of truch about them.
... and therein lies the pernicious nature of conspiracy theories. The naive and gullible will seize on what they perceive to be a grain of truth and use it to buy into the entire mess, lock, stock, and barrel.
Euclid mean there is boundless information reported, and it contains so much conflict within it that it loses credibility and cancels out any possible conclusions about what it means.
Well, all that I can offer in that regard, is be mindful of context. After one recognizes that there unmistakably is a problem, those critics accusing us of wearing a tin foil hat, are not part of any meaningful solution.
Euclid Convicted One Euclid There is too much information about this supply chain crisis. It can’t all be true because there is a lot of conflict within this body of information about the crisis. You mean like when the cops arrest a large group of perpetrators, and their alibi stories don't all match? That sort of thing.... I mean there is boundless information reported, and it contains so much conflict within it that it loses credibility and cancels out any possible conclusions about what it means.
Convicted One Euclid There is too much information about this supply chain crisis. It can’t all be true because there is a lot of conflict within this body of information about the crisis. You mean like when the cops arrest a large group of perpetrators, and their alibi stories don't all match? That sort of thing....
Euclid There is too much information about this supply chain crisis. It can’t all be true because there is a lot of conflict within this body of information about the crisis.
You mean like when the cops arrest a large group of perpetrators, and their alibi stories don't all match? That sort of thing....
I mean there is boundless information reported, and it contains so much conflict within it that it loses credibility and cancels out any possible conclusions about what it means.
In view of 21st Century civilization it is fully creditable - one finger pointing to each other while three more point back at the pointer. There is no link in the chain that is without issues and fault.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
No fact ever made a dent in a conspiracy theory.
EuclidThere is too much information about this supply chain crisis. It can’t all be true because there is a lot of conflict within this body of information about the crisis.
Well, the concept I had hoped to illustrate, is that inflationary influences (raising minimum wages, expanded benefits, etc) have been mounting for some time, and perhaps the ability of merchants to pass these expenses along have been held in check by market uncertainty..."will customers take their business elsewhere, seeking alternatives, if the pass-through is too sudden?" that sort of thing.
Whereas the hardship that the people and the economy have been forced to reckon with these past two years, have reduced those alternatives, and put the merchant in a better position to not worry about their customers ability to find alternatives.
(just as an illustration) Consumers being so happy they can just find toilet paper in stores,... period...that they don't even bother to wonder why they seldom see it on sale as they used to.
If you are a maker of toilet paper, that could theoretically under-cut your competition by 20%....what incentive do you have to do so, while the market is supporting full price sales?
Capitalism is the "conspiracy" here...charge what the maket will bear. Tin foil hats be damned!!
Everybody is "in" on trying to squeeze everything they can,.. out of it.
Murphy Siding CMStPnP So I am reading in the news today because the imports are blocked at our ports it is acting as kind of a tariff of sorts and exports have surged upwards 18% relative to imports because of the import slowdown. I don't know if that is good or bad though and probably too early to tell. That seems like a rather meaningless statistic. It's about as meaningless as saying that imports have surged downward 18% relative to exports. The net exports probably have not gone up at all.
CMStPnP So I am reading in the news today because the imports are blocked at our ports it is acting as kind of a tariff of sorts and exports have surged upwards 18% relative to imports because of the import slowdown. I don't know if that is good or bad though and probably too early to tell.
So I am reading in the news today because the imports are blocked at our ports it is acting as kind of a tariff of sorts and exports have surged upwards 18% relative to imports because of the import slowdown. I don't know if that is good or bad though and probably too early to tell.
That seems like a rather meaningless statistic. It's about as meaningless as saying that imports have surged downward 18% relative to exports. The net exports probably have not gone up at all.
Figuring liars and liars figuring.
Give a professional a set of numbers and they will prove any side of any argument you want.
Likely so. Change percentage (relative difference) without context is pretty useless.
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Convicted One Euclid I am certain that the supply chain failure was not artificially constructed Not even in part? Sorry but I cannot share your certainty.
Euclid I am certain that the supply chain failure was not artificially constructed
Not even in part? Sorry but I cannot share your certainty.
In the 70's an OTR truck if it was lucky got between 3 to 4 MPG on average. Then in 80's the first computer controlled injection systems hit Detroit had an electronic controlled injector and Cat had their pump electronic contolled. Cummins was behind the game but when they introduced their N14 it introduced their CELECT controls both injector and pump where electronic contolled. Those systems would have been about late 80's tech for cars in terms of emissions controls and MPG went up to over 5 to 6 MPG overall in those engines. That and fleets started to gear their trucks properly instead of gear slow run fast they switched to a run slow gear fast routine. Where the engines where run at around 1400-1600 to run at road speeds. Then Detroit Diesel introduced their 60 series and it was on when it came to MPG war. That engine set the gold standard for MPG's in the industry and was reliable. Cat tried to counter with the C15 and C13 classes came close but could not match it. Cummins lost massive amounts of market share as their N14 just could not cut the mustard anymore for MPG's. So they came out with their ISX series of motors. Then the EPA just accused without ever proving their case the engine makers of having a cruise program in their engines. The EPA threatened to withhold production certification of all Diesel engines for the OTR industry after the MY2000 until the engine makers agreed in court that they had cheated. So what do you do when your accused of breaking the law you know your legal as sin but can not prove it in court as the EPA kept delaying the hearings. You settle to keep 1 the production lines and your employees working and 2 keep the nation running. There was already a reduction in the emission standards coming down the line set for 2012 was the orginal year the EPA cut the time line in half and also cut the emission threshold by another 20% was all they did. However they also decreed that instead of just allowing DEF with SCR to be used in the first wave and allowing the systems that all makers used in Europe to be installed brand new tech had to be devolped for here in the USA. So we got screwed over by the EPA.
The first new engines equipped with EGR where a total freaking nightmare here in the USA not one of them is still even running from what I have seen in the used truck papers they where all scrapped. The 2012s all suffered the same fates. Yet the stuff from pre EGR days 2006 and older they keep going up in value. Why they keep running and are easy to work on. We have an owner op here that has a 2005 Western Star he literally can overhaul the truck in a weekend. One of our trucks if it needs one takes over a month due to how complex the freaking emissions systems are on them. He blew a turbo on the road was running in 3 hours. We had a 2020 blow a turbo it took 4 days to replace it as it blew chunks into the freaking emissions control systems and they all had to be replaced as a precaution.
What was the biggest factor in lowering emissions out of the diesel exhaust wasn't changing the engines it was something simple it was getting the sulphur out of the freaking fuel.
Shadow the Cats ownerNow they do but when the emissons crap first hit the average MPG dropped at my bosses fleet from 7.5 down to less than 6. We just now have recovered it back up to above 7.8 with our 2022's 16 years later. BTW that is with all the areodynamic add ons we can shove on the trucks. His fleet in 2006 was made up of T800's with 475 Cat motors under the hood. We are now running a mix of 450 and 475 Cummins except in our 2019 Volvo's those have the POS D13 in them. Those go bye this year.
How many miles per ton of coal did the EMD FT's get in 1939? [/sarcasm]
The reality is that diesels had a pass on emissions for most of the 20th Century while gas engines were being forced to comply with increasingly strict EPA regulations. It is only been in the 21st Century that diesel regulations have merited increased engineering talent to solve diesel emmisions; diesel EPA engineering is a good 30 years behind gas engineering for emission regulations.
My perception is that diesel emissions engineering is at about the same place that gas engines were in the 1970's - 1970's gas engines were TURDS, inefficient and powerless - but they complied with the letter of the regulations at the time.
Now they do but when the emissons crap first hit the average MPG dropped at my bosses fleet from 7.5 down to less than 6. We just now have recovered it back up to above 7.8 with our 2022's 16 years later. BTW that is with all the areodynamic add ons we can shove on the trucks. His fleet in 2006 was made up of T800's with 475 Cat motors under the hood. We are now running a mix of 450 and 475 Cummins except in our 2019 Volvo's those have the POS D13 in them. Those go bye this year.
Sorry, trucks get better fuel economy now than they did 15 years ago.
CSSHEGEWISCH The actual amount of CO2 and other emissions reduced between an OTR diesel engine made in 2006 the last year before the EPA started hammering all the extra emissions equipment onto this industry and now in the 2022 model year is LESS THAN 1 GRAM of CO2 Per pound of Fuel burned per HOUR. For that for almost a decade we gave up between 20-25% in fuel economy overall and still are dealing with extra maintance costs that average around 10 to 25 grand a year in direct extra costs to maintain both the DPF and DEF systems on the trucks. We also as an industry lost about 40% overall in reliablity in MTBF or Mean Time Between Failures that required a shop visit. Overhaul times went from an average of 50% 1Million meaning 50% of all OTR engines went 1million miles before needing an inframe Overhaul which is a minor overhaul where you change the liners pistons and other wear parts to less than 600K miles before that same service is required on average. Overhauls used to cost less than 10K parts and labor on the older engines to around 40K now for the newer engines. But what would I know dealing with 250 trucks where they are daily and praying for a breakdown free day. Right now I have 5 trucks down with major DEF failures where we are waiting on parts that even our dealer has no clue when they are going to get them. Shadow the Cats owner 14. Truck breaks down due to EPA mandates. This one is a very common one. Do you have a problem with breathing clean air? Maintain your vehicles to EPA standards.
The actual amount of CO2 and other emissions reduced between an OTR diesel engine made in 2006 the last year before the EPA started hammering all the extra emissions equipment onto this industry and now in the 2022 model year is LESS THAN 1 GRAM of CO2 Per pound of Fuel burned per HOUR. For that for almost a decade we gave up between 20-25% in fuel economy overall and still are dealing with extra maintance costs that average around 10 to 25 grand a year in direct extra costs to maintain both the DPF and DEF systems on the trucks. We also as an industry lost about 40% overall in reliablity in MTBF or Mean Time Between Failures that required a shop visit. Overhaul times went from an average of 50% 1Million meaning 50% of all OTR engines went 1million miles before needing an inframe Overhaul which is a minor overhaul where you change the liners pistons and other wear parts to less than 600K miles before that same service is required on average. Overhauls used to cost less than 10K parts and labor on the older engines to around 40K now for the newer engines. But what would I know dealing with 250 trucks where they are daily and praying for a breakdown free day. Right now I have 5 trucks down with major DEF failures where we are waiting on parts that even our dealer has no clue when they are going to get them.
Shadow the Cats owner 14. Truck breaks down due to EPA mandates. This one is a very common one.
14. Truck breaks down due to EPA mandates. This one is a very common one.
Do you have a problem with breathing clean air? Maintain your vehicles to EPA standards.
Euclid BaltACD The 'supply chain' is predicated on the principals of Just in Time inventory methods. I agree, but it should not be. That is perhaps is the greatest mistake made by the supply chain. It is too big and unwieldly to respond to business spikes if it is founded on "Just-in-time" philosophy. So the first spike comes along and the whole thing collapses with a need of complete rebuilding.
BaltACD The 'supply chain' is predicated on the principals of Just in Time inventory methods.
The 'supply chain' is predicated on the principals of Just in Time inventory methods.
I agree, but it should not be. That is perhaps is the greatest mistake made by the supply chain. It is too big and unwieldly to respond to business spikes if it is founded on "Just-in-time" philosophy. So the first spike comes along and the whole thing collapses with a need of complete rebuilding.
The object of business is to make money. Just in Time inventory methods benefit the making of money. Having to increase storage/warehouse space runs up costs.
JIT is nothing new. GM was using its principles long before I was transfered to Baltimore in 1971 to supply parts from their manufacturing facilities in the midwest for their assembly plants in Baltimore and Wilmington.
The realities of 21st Century business is that a vast majority of organizations adhere to JIT principles and their supply chains are much longer than midwest to East coast - their supply chains are global with any number of players involved.
Maker in inland China. Transportation from Maker to oceanic shippers terminal. Manipulation in the terminal until being loaded on a vessel. Vessel waiting to dock in Far Eastern port(s) as it makes its scheduled ports of call to both load and discharge cargo. Transit of the vessel from the Far East to US ports. Waiting to dock at the ocean carriers terminal facility. Cargo unloaded from ship to terminal and wait for drayage from terminal to distribution center.
There are probably more links in this chain than I have identified. With the object of business to be making money - each business doesn't want to spend money to fix the problems they PERCEIVE that their partners have. Each link in the chain features it is the other links fault that the chain is failing.
Convicted One Euclid The FTC’s call for supply chain business records is probably just a pretext to prepare people for the FTC soon releasing large findings that supply chain corruption is causing nearly all of the inflation that we are experiencing I'm reminded of an old quote by Marcus Aurelius.."We are too much accustomed to attributing to a single cause, problems that are the result of many." With the general push for $15 minimum wages the past several years, in a multitude of entry level positions across the board, as well as improved conditions for workers of the online vendors who continue to become an ever more pervasive influence in the upply chain.....I've been waiting for a flurry of "catch up" to transpire and force prices higher. That might very well be a part of the increases, and the pandemic just came along at the right time as an alibi/scapegoat? (on top of the gougers, incompetents, and opportunists) Not so much a conspiracy as it s a symphony of influences where consumer welfare is NOT the foremost priority?
Euclid The FTC’s call for supply chain business records is probably just a pretext to prepare people for the FTC soon releasing large findings that supply chain corruption is causing nearly all of the inflation that we are experiencing
I'm reminded of an old quote by Marcus Aurelius.."We are too much accustomed to attributing to a single cause, problems that are the result of many."
With the general push for $15 minimum wages the past several years, in a multitude of entry level positions across the board, as well as improved conditions for workers of the online vendors who continue to become an ever more pervasive influence in the upply chain.....I've been waiting for a flurry of "catch up" to transpire and force prices higher. That might very well be a part of the increases, and the pandemic just came along at the right time as an alibi/scapegoat? (on top of the gougers, incompetents, and opportunists)
Not so much a conspiracy as it s a symphony of influences where consumer welfare is NOT the foremost priority?
EuclidThe FTC’s call for supply chain business records is probably just a pretext to prepare people for the FTC soon releasing large findings that supply chain corruption is causing nearly all of the inflation that we are experiencing
tree68Storage costs money - warehouses, stock rooms, SIT, what-have-you. Most businesses are going to maintain a certain buffer of stock, but, again, storage costs money. It may only be a day or two, but that takes into account a truck with a flat tire, not the type of disruption and surge we're experiencing. I suspect that on-line ordering, already a "thing" before the pandemic, will continue at high levels, thus becoming the new normal.
At end of year via various shipping tricks and paperwork tricks most Manufacturing firms attempt to look inventory lean on paper as it makes their year end financial results on paper.
Really surprised Union Pacific is selling it's Recieveables prior to collection to increase cash flow, never seen a railroad do that before and not sure why they started to do so but I have a hunch is they are being overly clever trying to beat increasing inflation and they feel inflation will spike more.
Storage costs money - warehouses, stock rooms, SIT, what-have-you.
Most businesses are going to maintain a certain buffer of stock, but, again, storage costs money. It may only be a day or two, but that takes into account a truck with a flat tire, not the type of disruption and surge we're experiencing.
I suspect that on-line ordering, already a "thing" before the pandemic, will continue at high levels, thus becoming the new normal.
The 'supply chain' is predicated on the principals of Just in Time inventory methods. When the resources required for Just in Time to happen - costs rise, exponentially! Each link in the chain will take actions and procedures to protect themselves, these actions and procedures will increase costs - costs that will be billed to each successive link in the supply chain.
greyhounds I’d be greatly surprised if the FTC has any in depth knowledge of supply chains. They’re government bureaucrats looking for something to do. This makes them appear to be “Doing Something” so they can “Make a Difference.” They’re like flies, they eat …. and bother people. None the less, here’s a sample report. Dear FTC, This distribution center suffered supply chain disruptions due to: 1) Truck is late arriving. Driver said he was delayed by portable scale and the resultant traffic back up. He ran out of hours five miles from here. Says he will be here as soon as he can tomorrow. 2) Order of toothpaste arrived one case short. Supplier says they’ll make it up on the next order. 3) Forklift operator called in sick. 4) Substitute operator drove forklift off the side of the loading dock. He was taken to a hospital by ambulance. Forklift is out of service. 5) Yard spotter had flat tire on inside dual 6) Some cans of water chestnuts imported from China began exploding. (This one actually happened.) 7) We found a dead rat in the warehouse. Corporate “Go Team” en route by air. (This one also happened.) 8) It snowed. A lot. 9) Our computer guy was called to National Guard duty. 10) OSHA person showed up and demanded full report on the forklift accident. 11) I had to waste time making this report. That’s it for this morning. I’m going to lunch now. I’ll let you know what happens this afternoon.
1) Truck is late arriving. Driver said he was delayed by portable scale and the resultant traffic back up. He ran out of hours five miles from here. Says he will be here as soon as he can tomorrow.
2) Order of toothpaste arrived one case short. Supplier says they’ll make it up on the next order.
3) Forklift operator called in sick.
4) Substitute operator drove forklift off the side of the loading dock. He was taken to a hospital by ambulance. Forklift is out of service.
5) Yard spotter had flat tire on inside dual
6) Some cans of water chestnuts imported from China began exploding. (This one actually happened.)
7) We found a dead rat in the warehouse. Corporate “Go Team” en route by air. (This one also happened.)
8) It snowed. A lot.
9) Our computer guy was called to National Guard duty.
10) OSHA person showed up and demanded full report on the forklift accident.
11) I had to waste time making this report.
Here's a few more we can add to the list.
12. Shipper took 12 hours to load the truck HOS regulations required driver to burn his clock while waiting to load. Yes this happens way more than they want to admit.
13. Overzealous DOT officer placed truck OOS for having wrong color LED light on tractor roof marker light. Yes this one happened to one of my owner Ops this week. He was running his pink light in his center position in rememberance of his mother losing her battle with Breast cancer. He has color changing LED's on his roof. Some rookie DOT officer placed him OOS for 10 hours in PA for violation of the lighting requirements.
blue streak 1 The one inflation item that is obvious is the ocean rates per container. Those rates have risen by how much ? 2 to 3 times base?
The one inflation item that is obvious is the ocean rates per container. Those rates have risen by how much ? 2 to 3 times base?
See the linked article graph. The rates went from $2,000 to $20,000 per container. Sounds like 10x to me.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-10-11/supply-chain-latest-container-shipping-rates-are-drifting-lower
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.