Today, another unfornate step toward the ultimate demise of rail freight was made. Waymo has partnered with Daimler Trucks to see the first autonomous trucks enter service very soon. Waymo and Daimler are two industry juggernauts and this new partnership will likely see them succeed in their goal quickly. Also included below is the cost breakdown for autonomous trucks in comparison to rail.
https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-and-daimler-trucks-partner-on.html?m=1
https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/autonomous-trucks/
Note that several numbers in Tasha's analysis are in probability highly misstated. Unless insurance costs are largely borne by the platform providers (which I think doubtful in the necessary long run) that cost alone for full autonomous vehicles may be orders of magnitude larger, even at the generous assumption for overall ton-miles run by all vehicles, as is the perceived risk following the first high-profile accidents involving these vehicles long before they reach such utilization.
Her cost for providing and maintaining sufficient recharge capacity for the vehicles appears defective both in short-term/implementation rollout and in sustainability at the anticipated traffic volume (and presumed route multiplicity for ad hoc 4x vehicle utilization "next load any road" (as her model appears to call for).
I see nothing particularly 'unfortunate' about implementation of autonomous trucks -- they will be in a number of respects key drivers of intermodal rail development, in TOFC and I suspect in domestic COFC. Certainly in quite a few of the many, many years before we have effective financed buildout of the electric, autonomous trucks essential to Tasha's analysis, it will make better sense to concentrate the large OTR-capable vehicles regionally, perhaps to a relatively fixed number of distribution locations, and transfer the last-mile deliveries to more specialized electric vehicles of the sort Amazon is pioneering.
Sigh....
Here we go again.
I won't hold my breath until I see autonomous vehicles (of any type) in wide spread use out in the real world. That is, a completely driverless vehicle with no human ready to take control when the automation fails and outside of somewhat controlled urban driving conditions.
But if anyone else wants to do so, by all means please do.
Jeff
Last weekend marked the beginning of tow truck season on the northern plains. Will they send an autonomous tow truck out to pull the autonomous semi-truck out of the ditch on the interstate?
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Murphy Siding Last weekend marked the beginning of tow truck season on the northern plains. Will they send an autonomous tow truck out to pull the autonomous semi-truck out of the ditch on the interstate?
They will only do that after the driverless state patrol cars divert the traffic, and the androids with flashlights direct the traffic to the detoured route.
Edit: Wait a minute. I was wrong. After the driverless state patrol cars recognize a problem, they will communicate with all the other driverless vehicles to driverlessly take a detour. There will be no need for the passengers to even look up from their phones.
York1 John
Juniata Man Sigh.... "....Here we go again..."
Sigh.... "....Here we go again..."
Just mark me down as another cynic! [From 'Merriam-Webster' "... In English, however, cynic and cynical have more to do with distrust of motives than shamelessness..."]
Firstly, I am highly suspicious of one's apparent agenda;[ by Tasha Keeney, CFA, Analyst October 10, 2017] As well as, the O.P.'s who has proven on several occasions to drop in, and attempt, to become the resident 'bomb thrower'.
[Just my ! ]
My cynicism is rooted in my previous career in aspects of truck transportation. I am sure that at some future point, autonomous vehicles will have a place in our world.
That, and They will not happen any time soon. Infrastructure, and specific infrastructure will be required; follow that closely by indroctrination of the general public into co-existing with autonomous vehicles, in TRAFFIC.
Co-existance with autonomous vehicles will have to be[MUST BE (?)] supported,and mandated(?) by the National government. Rules, Regulations, and LOTS, and LOTS of $$$$$$$. Remember, the National RR re-gauging of 1886?
The 'Public' will require re-education, as to coexisting with the autonomous traffic; the rationale behind the individuals need to respond to one's own agenda, and the individual's 'chance taking' reasons for traffic accidents. Most likely, we'll all be boxed out of this life; before we see anything more than just test areas for autonomous vehicle interactions.' Cynical ? You Betcha
The autonomous tow vehicle will be dispatched along with the autonomous fire/rescue vehicle which will be equipped with autonomous rescue-bots which will cut the victims out of the wreckage, as well as autonomous medic-bots who will tend to any injuries that may occur.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tree68 Murphy Siding Last weekend marked the beginning of tow truck season on the northern plains. Will they send an autonomous tow truck out to pull the autonomous semi-truck out of the ditch on the interstate? The autonomous tow vehicle will be dispatched along with the autonomous fire/rescue vehicle which will be equipped with autonomous rescue-bots which will cut the victims out of the wreckage, as well as autonomous medic-bots who will tend to any injuries that may occur.
Thus starts the first day of 'The World Without People'.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
When I was a kid in the 1950s, my older brother had subscriptions to "Popular Science" and "Popular Mechanics".
I remember seeing this ad, and dreaming of the future:
York1 Murphy Siding Last weekend marked the beginning of tow truck season on the northern plains. Will they send an autonomous tow truck out to pull the autonomous semi-truck out of the ditch on the interstate? They will only do that after the driverless state patrol cars divert the traffic, and the androids with flashlights direct the traffic to the detoured route. Edit: Wait a minute. I was wrong. After the driverless state patrol cars recognize a problem, they will communicate with all the other driverless vehicles to driverlessly take a detour. There will be no need for the passengers to even look up from their phones.
Will driverless Police cars go to the automated donut shops?
samfp1943 Juniata Man Sigh.... "....Here we go again..." Just mark me down as another cynic! [From 'Merriam-Webster' "... In English, however, cynic and cynical have more to do with distrust of motives than shamelessness..."] Firstly, I am highly suspicious of one's apparent agenda;[ by Tasha Keeney, CFA, Analyst October 10, 2017] As well as, the O.P.'s who has proven on several occasions to drop in, and attempt, to become the resident 'bomb thrower'. [Just my ! ] My cynicism is rooted in my previous career in aspects of truck transportation. I am sure that at some future point, autonomous vehicles will have a place in our world. That, and They will not happen any time soon. Infrastructure, and specific infrastructure will be required; follow that closely by indroctrination of the general public into co-existing with autonomous vehicles, in TRAFFIC. Co-existance with autonomous vehicles will have to be[MUST BE (?)] supported,and mandated(?) by the National government. Rules, Regulations, and LOTS, and LOTS of $$$$$$$. Remember, the National RR re-gauging of 1886? The 'Public' will require re-education, as to coexisting with the autonomous traffic; the rationale behind the individuals need to respond to one's own agenda, and the individual's 'chance taking' reasons for traffic accidents. Most likely, we'll all be boxed out of this life; before we see anything more than just test areas for autonomous vehicle interactions.' Cynical ? You Betcha
Murphy: Talk about calculating a condition with so many unknowns... Posibilities complicated by factors effected by a individual's personal skill levels, and the gods of chance! Just walking away from those circumstances seem to indicate a certain level of Divine Intervention !
Iced roadways are always problematic; from the outright presence of 'iced over' roadways to the presence of conditions of 'Black Ice'. One has to know when to say'when', and wait for a better set of conditions. { that thingy about exercising judgement and one's own skill level. }
That crisis is 'always' out there; with unknown results. I remember one winter morning about 1978, on an icy road; I passed a GREYHOUND BUS... ON Black ice, he was westbound and I was westbound; only I was sliding backwards.
samfp1943 Murphy: Talk about calculating a condition with so many unknowns... Posibilities complicated by factors effected by a individual's personal skill levels, and the gods of chance! Just walking away from those circumstances seem to indicate a certain level of Divine Intervention ! Iced roadways are always problematic; from the outright presence of 'iced over' roadways to the presence of conditions of 'Black Ice'. One has to know when to say'when', and wait for a better set of conditions. { that thingy about exercising judgement and one's own skill level. } That crisis is 'always' out there; with unknown results. I remember one winter morning about 1978, on an icy road; I passed a GREYHOUND BUS... ON Black ice, he was westbound and I was westbound; only I was sliding backwards.
Murphy SidingHow do you exercise judgement and skill level if you're not human? Once they're able to program in driver's experience, skill and intuition into an automated, driverless truck then we can talk about progress.
That the approach may not be 'perfect' we can accept. What I suggest is that this may be a situation analogous to the early Massachusetts General test of an ER expert system for heart-attack intake. A notable result was that the system once tuned caught 100% of the presenting victims correctly -- as well as the admitting staff and residents backstopping it -- but more importantly the system identified a number of valid cases that the staff missed.
If you need a system that can reliably shift a quad box via solenoid control within 20 engine revolutions -- a machine can do that reliably better than any human driver, and without getting its wrist jammed in the wheel trying. If you need a system that can control a large vehicle on black ice, something with millisecond corrective response, aware of the effect of overcompensation, dealing with something with the inertial tendency for its center of mass to continue straight is far likelier to keep the truck upright, straight, and out of ditches or other traffic than any human driver could -- and while we could always ask for more, and plaintiff's bar will likely have a field day with conjecturals, is a typical current driver able to deal with a truck on black ice too thick, or at the wrong temperature range, for greater contact-patch pressure for its tires to 'bite' on?
Likewise, in almost sure probability, you'll see autonomous operation either stopped or suspended when conditions begin to degrade into those that the sensory systems can't effectively deal with. Remember that each passing truck is also recording road conditions and detecting 'guidance anomalies' it passes -- if workers are setting up a particular zone with improper spacing or lane marking, it would be caught, reported, and one would think corrected long before it becomes an active problem in a zero-dark-thirty blizzard. And if not ... then no trucks go. (Just as would likely be the case with sensible human drivers without, ahem, distractions from safest course...)
Overmod- Do you live in an area with extreme winter driving conditions?
A problem we have here is truckers driving in less-than-desirable conditions on the Interstate. Automobile drivers report being passed by semis "at speed" when conditions are "yukk."
During one recent snow event, the detour turned out to be worse than the closed Interstate. Tow trucks had to be called in to get semis up several slippery hills on the detour - they'd have been better off on the Interstate, or parked.
This does beg another question - will autonomous trucks know places they shouldn't go? Every place they can safely park if things go bad?
Murphy SidingDo you live in an area with extreme winter driving conditions?
In February 1978 there was so much snow on the ground that the New Jersey Governor closed the major roads. As it was my father's 50th birthday, I was able to get 'special dispensation' from the Governor's office to travel -- how fortunate he was my father's college classmate! -- and so off I went. First I had to find the car in the student parking lot -- then tunnel in about 10 lateral feet into the large egg-shaped drift it was in -- then start and idle it to get rid of the ice on the windshield and wipers -- spraying alcohol solution on there just made it cake up worse. Then out I went ... noting the interesting depression that the oil pan and drain on a 460 made in the snow going out. I had little problem on the Turnpike ... until I got fancy and tootled along in the left-hand lane at 45mph or so, only to find there was a point that the plows up and quit doing that lane. This gave me a good spin, which was fun because no matter which way I tried the wheel, it just swapped ends as I continued straight down the middle lane. Finally came to rest neatly sideways, and K-turned to finish driving. It took me longer to excavate a 20' slot in the driveway to park the car than it did to make the whole trip down.
Coming back from Wilkes-Barre to Englewood one night, I got into a set of flurries that increased in the Poconos to a pretty respectable snowstorm. I could make out utterly nothing of the road or most traffic on it, and was forced to rely on following the trailer lights of a semi ahead of me all the way up and over PA 115 to what used to be exit 43 off I-80. Very near this point was a long downgrade that had become severely iced, to the point that no trucks were negotiating it. I was in a Cadillac Eldorado, and when I started down the hill the automatic transmission would slip the steer tires at idle rpm and over to the shoulder it would shudder with no steering integrity to speak of. However, putting the car in neutral restored steering, and the disc brakes were sensitive enough to keep the car within control at nice slow downgrade speed -- so down I went.
I would note that the Carnegie-Mellon approach to integrated HA-NDGPS and good optimized GIS would have made road-following far more assured than just VFR, and proper autonomous cognizance of other transpondered traffic using the road would likely ensure reasonable separation should (for some reason) conditions deteriorate before a safe layover location could be reached. An issue here, which I acknowledge, is that any 'safe and prudent' system of autonomous driving would likely not involve the option of operating in "unsafe" levels of weather -- no matter what effect on long-distance electric autonomous truck transport that might imply. Yes, it would be conservative, and yes, there might be very limited 'appeal' from the connected infrastructure's "decision" not to operate further until conditions improved...
Overmod Murphy Siding Do you live in an area with extreme winter driving conditions? I certainly have, and have had my share of 'abusing' driving in them. That's not to say I've driven in Western blizzard conditions, or dealt (other than somewhat vicariously) with upper-Midwest conditions where, as a former girlfriend who went to the Bucky Badger business school said, if you had your car locked at the first frost you would be waiting for spring before you could drive again. About the most extreme along those lines was the time I spent in Erie, PA (where there is some lake-effect but relatively little severe cold) In February 1978 there was so much snow on the ground that the New Jersey Governor closed the major roads. As it was my father's 50th birthday, I was able to get 'special dispensation' from the Governor's office to travel -- how fortunate he was my father's college classmate! -- and so off I went. First I had to find the car in the student parking lot -- then tunnel in about 10 lateral feet into the large egg-shaped drift it was in -- then start and idle it to get rid of the ice on the windshield and wipers -- spraying alcohol solution on there just made it cake up worse. Then out I went ... noting the interesting depression that the oil pan and drain on a 460 made in the snow going out. I had little problem on the Turnpike ... until I got fancy and tootled along in the left-hand lane at 45mph or so, only to find there was a point that the plows up and quit doing that lane. This gave me a good spin, which was fun because no matter which way I tried the wheel, it just swapped ends as I continued straight down the middle lane. Finally came to rest neatly sideways, and K-turned to finish driving. It took me longer to excavate a 20' slot in the driveway to park the car than it did to make the whole trip down. Coming back from Wilkes-Barre to Englewood one night, I got into a set of flurries that increased in the Poconos to a pretty respectable snowstorm. I could make out utterly nothing of the road or most traffic on it, and was forced to rely on following the trailer lights of a semi ahead of me all the way up and over PA 115 to what used to be exit 43 off I-80. Very near this point was a long downgrade that had become severely iced, to the point that no trucks were negotiating it. I was in a Cadillac Eldorado, and when I started down the hill the automatic transmission would slip the steer tires at idle rpm and over to the shoulder it would shudder with no steering integrity to speak of. However, putting the car in neutral restored steering, and the disc brakes were sensitive enough to keep the car within control at nice slow downgrade speed -- so down I went. I would note that the Carnegie-Mellon approach to integrated HA-NDGPS and good optimized GIS would have made road-following far more assured than just VFR, and proper autonomous cognizance of other transpondered traffic using the road would likely ensure reasonable separation should (for some reason) conditions deteriorate before a safe layover location could be reached. An issue here, which I acknowledge, is that any 'safe and prudent' system of autonomous driving would likely not involve the option of operating in "unsafe" levels of weather -- no matter what effect on long-distance electric autonomous truck transport that might imply. Yes, it would be conservative, and yes, there might be very limited 'appeal' from the connected infrastructure's "decision" not to operate further until conditions improved...
Murphy Siding Do you live in an area with extreme winter driving conditions?
I certainly have, and have had my share of 'abusing' driving in them. That's not to say I've driven in Western blizzard conditions, or dealt (other than somewhat vicariously) with upper-Midwest conditions where, as a former girlfriend who went to the Bucky Badger business school said, if you had your car locked at the first frost you would be waiting for spring before you could drive again. About the most extreme along those lines was the time I spent in Erie, PA (where there is some lake-effect but relatively little severe cold)
Nice! Reminds me of driving in some difficult snowstorms in the past in various places.
I recall driving down the N.J. Turnpike in a snowstorm in the 1970s. it might have been 1978. I'm in a 1962 VW bug and the speedometer needle was moving from 40 mph down to zero as its driven off the left front wheel which means that the wheel was just sliding along. Not fun!
How is a driverless truck supposed to handle conditions like that? I could see them in the southwestern U.S. in a highly controlled environment like a campus of some kind, but where it snows?
I recall getting 9" of snow overnight once in Atlanta, and the morning commute was surreal. I doubt most of those people had any experience driving on snow.
Moved to the Atlanta area in the late 90's from the midwest. First "snow" I went to work and was the only one there. There was about 2" on the ground and the roads were wet. Good excuse for a holiday!
rdamonMoved to the Atlanta area in the late 90's from the midwest. First "snow" I went to work and was the only one there.
Of course in Atlanta, 9" of snow can melt off by 5 PM, with favorable conditions.
But in the morning I was seeing drivers attempt insane things. No idea about the importance of momentum.......no concept that "more throttle" is not the solution to solve getting stranded while going uphill.
Convicted One I recall getting 9" of snow overnight once in Atlanta, and the morning commute was surreal. I doubt most of those people had any experience driving on snow.
I was caught in DC one Friday by a snowstorm that essentially closed everything (schools were closing based on the forecast, before a single flake fell).
I was greatly amused as I passed a Jeep stuck on a slight hill whilst I was driving a rental Pontiac...
tree68During one recent snow event, the detour turned out to be worse than the closed Interstate. Tow trucks had to be called in to get semis up several slippery hills on the detour - they'd have been better off on the Interstate, or parked.
As I recall, that's another thing we can thank our governor for.
Leo_Ames tree68 During one recent snow event, the detour turned out to be worse than the closed Interstate. Tow trucks had to be called in to get semis up several slippery hills on the detour - they'd have been better off on the Interstate, or parked. As I recall, that's another thing we can thank our governor for.
tree68 During one recent snow event, the detour turned out to be worse than the closed Interstate. Tow trucks had to be called in to get semis up several slippery hills on the detour - they'd have been better off on the Interstate, or parked.
Interstate detours are no picnic no matter where they happen. Was going from Jacksonville to Savannah to race - a normal 2 hour trip.
There was some incident North of MP 26 in Georgia. Georgia set up a detour on surface 2 lane roads up to approximately MP 50. There was no 'expediting' of STOP signs or traffic lights with additional police help.
The normal 2 hour trip ended up being 6 hours.
Governor's have nothing to do with detours that police enact account road conditions that they encounter.
tree68 (schools were closing based on the forecast, before a single flake fell).
I think the biggest problem with it in Atlanta, is the City just had very few resources to deal with such events. I think they owned only about a dozen snow plows, and even those were somebody's idea of a "doomsday contingency". Hit the city bus routes, and call it a day.....
Thereafter I moved to Denver, and experienced exactly the opposite. Got like a foot overnight with another 6-8" predicted throughout the day.....and I really did not want to risk getting "snowed in" at work...so I took a personal day off work.
Boy did I get razzed by my co-workers the following day for being a 'southern damsel'.
The thing that surprised me about Denver is that they even manage to plow secondary and residential streets promptly, after a big snow.
Where I grew up it usually took them 4-5 days to even start plowing residential streets.
BaltACD Leo_Ames tree68 During one recent snow event, the detour turned out to be worse than the closed Interstate. Tow trucks had to be called in to get semis up several slippery hills on the detour - they'd have been better off on the Interstate, or parked. As I recall, that's another thing we can thank our governor for. Governor's have nothing to do with detours that police enact account road conditions that they encounter.
It was well publicized and was an order from the governor's mansion to the state DOT to ban truckers from interstates, placed in advance before the storm ever hit.
tree68 Convicted One I recall getting 9" of snow overnight once in Atlanta, and the morning commute was surreal. I doubt most of those people had any experience driving on snow. I was caught in DC one Friday by a snowstorm that essentially closed everything (schools were closing based on the forecast, before a single flake fell). I was greatly amused as I passed a Jeep stuck on a slight hill whilst I was driving a rental Pontiac...
Lived a number of years and learned to drive in NE Ohio - snow was the norm from December into March. Needless to say I learned to drive in ice and snow. In fact the only 'snow day' I had in High School was when the Supt. of Schools put his vehicle in a ditch trying to get out of his own driveway - he then thought conditions were too bad for the school buses.
The road conditions I learned to drive on in the mid 60's are far different than they are today - especially in metropolitan areas. In the mid 60's in bad weather there were relatively few OTHER CARS on the roads - you could make a mistake and have the room to recover. In today's roads in bad weather in metropolitan areas you are about 3 feet from another vehicle in every direction - make a mistake and hit somebody(s).
In Maryland, the road forces, over the past few years, have taken to 'pretreating' the Interstates and other limited access highways. Before the storm's start the put down a trail of, what I am told, is a Brine Solution that quickly dries on the highway. As you travel the roadways the trail of the Brine Solution is very visible on the highway. In theory it puts salt in place to meet the snow. It does seem to work.
When I was still working, I worked Daylight one weekend day - my route home uses I-695 (Baltimore Beltway) from the Dispatch Center's exit at Hollins Ferry Road to the I-70 interchange in Woodlawn. From approximately Wikins Ave to the US 40 exit is about a 3 mile grade (was real fun to ride my bicycle DOWN when I was a kid and the Beltway was under construction). A snow event happened without prior warning - there was maybe a inch, however, it had been below freezing for a number of days and the roadway was below freezing - the 'heat' from car tires 'liquified' a layer of snow into water which then became ice on the surface of the road. It took the better park of a hour, with very judicious throttle application to get enough 'grip' to climb the grade on the icy road surface - with 'friends' a yard away in every direction. The key is to keep moving - no matter how slow, KEEP MOVING!
Amen to "keep moving" Balt. My dad tought me to go to an empty parking lot after a snow fall and practice putting the car into a skid and getiing out of it.
So when my son was in his teens, I had told him he should do that so one night, he went to Pleasant Lane school with is date and did that. Unfortunatly for him, the school had had some incidents that neighbors were on alert for and the police were called. They ran the plates and due to a S of S F up, they came back to some pour smuck in Chicago. They took the plates of the car and let my son go. I had to go to the PD and retrive the plates. He & I always get a kick out of it.
About twenty years ago, I was going home to my mothers in Cincinnati and the snow was coming down and we were between Lebanon IN and Indy. The wife was wanting me to get off I-65 and into a motel and I kept thinking we would run out of it but then I noticed there were NO TRUCKS around me going in either direction! If you have driven I-65 in Indiana, you know it is like the BNSF in Arizona, 10 trucks and more per mile minimum. I got into Indy and holed up.
My desire is to find that guy that at the head of the bockage. You know everyone says, " I could have gone but the line would let me" So get that guy out of the way and everything would be ok. Sure.
And there are some amazing and troubling videos of truck pileups on Youtube.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.