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Pessimism is the only accurate outlook

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Posted by Overmod on Monday, June 1, 2020 3:12 PM

tree68
A problem with this approach is that in today's railroad financial climate, what would happen after "Sell the track" would be to move the money in total to the bottom line to be harvested by the investors.

Yeah, but you have to look at this following the OP's pessimism.  What he "predicted," remember, was that the ROWs would be abandoned (more precisely, converted to trails, not even 'busway' equivalents for route-separated autonomous electric platooning in directional running).  That's a potload of opportunity cost even if "sold" at pennies on the dollar, ignoring all the communications and colocated pipeline and service rights.  It would not be difficult to see companies similar to Hutchinson Whampoa acquiring routes much like 'spectrum', followed by strategic spinoff of the rail assets to iron-ocean or similar operating companies... which could then laser-focus effectively on best profitability for open infrastructure without pesky common-carrier responsibilities.  Any retained operating services... which, again, the OP thinks would be hopelessly unprofitable by that point... would be additional revenue, perhaps operating the way communications companies exploited dark fiber and perceived excess bandwidth in the good old OC-3 days of optical backbone networks.

Someone is sure to bring up Network Rail, Hatfield, and The Permanent Way at some point.  Let 'em.  We might get wretchedness but not that kind, and we have lots of examples of what to avoid and why to educate the stockholders and investors with...

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Posted by ttrraaffiicc on Monday, June 1, 2020 8:40 PM

What he "predicted," remember, was that the ROWs would be abandoned

Rail ROWs are too narrow to be useful carriageways. Sure, they could be sold off and used as utility corridors, but if trains aren't running on them, for our purposes they are as good as abandoned.

Carload is dying and this presents a huge problem. The majority of rail revenues and volumes come from carload. Intermodal accounts for a much smaller share of revenue and tonnage handled by railroads. When carload dies, so too will the majority of freight rail. It is true that railroads are the only declining mode of transport in a growing economy. It is sad, but they aren't really relevant to the economy anymore.

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, June 1, 2020 9:24 PM

ttrraaffiicc
It is sad, but they aren't really relevant to the economy anymore.

Forty to sixty trains through Deshler per day say they are relevant...

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, June 1, 2020 10:45 PM

ttrraaffiicc
 
What he "predicted," remember, was that the ROWs would be abandoned  

Rail ROWs are too narrow to be useful carriageways. Sure, they could be sold off and used as utility corridors, but if trains aren't running on them, for our purposes they are as good as abandoned.

Carload is dying and this presents a huge problem. The majority of rail revenues and volumes come from carload. Intermodal accounts for a much smaller share of revenue and tonnage handled by railroads. When carload dies, so too will the majority of freight rail. It is true that railroads are the only declining mode of transport in a growing economy. It is sad, but they aren't really relevant to the economy anymore.

That must be some real Rocky Mountain High you are on.  

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Posted by Gramp on Monday, June 1, 2020 11:22 PM

Yeah, all that hazmat traffic a beboppin' down the highway. Noone's gonna object to that. 

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 6:49 AM

oltmannd
So, if RRs are going to stick around, they have to figure out how to improve what they do to stay competitive. Status quo won't hunt. They need a 20 year capital plan, not just a 5 year one.

Are they trying to figure that out?  Is there a solution that can be figured out?  Do they realize they must figure out a way to stay competitive?

Why do they need a 20 year capital plan instead of a 5 year plan?

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 7:14 AM

tree68
 
ttrraaffiicc
It is sad, but they aren't really relevant to the economy anymore.

 

Forty to sixty trains through Deshler per day say they are relevant...

 

Oh sure, but those could easily be replaced with 16,000 to 24,000 electric, driverless trucks that haven't been invented yet. Dunce

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 7:19 AM

ttrraaffiicc
 

 

 

Carload is dying and this presents a huge problem. The majority of rail revenues and volumes come from carload. Intermodal accounts for a much smaller share of revenue and tonnage handled by railroads. When carload dies, so too will the majority of freight rail.

 

Didn't you get the memo? Carload died a long time ago. It was replaced by unit trains. Unit trains- you know, the ones you don't want to talk about because they can't be replaced by fleets of driverless elctric trucks that don't exist yet.

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 7:40 AM

ttrraaffiicc


 
There is a lot of pessimism ......blah blah blah...

 

I can agree with you on this point. Pessimism is the only accurate outlook on anything as far as you are concerned. So, are all you guys at the trucking association PR firms still working from home?

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Posted by SD60MAC9500 on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 12:35 PM
 

Euclid

 

 
SD60MAC9500
 
It's known that Euro Railfreight operators would love to have a much larger loading gauge, with the ability to run longer trains, double stacks, along with heavier axle loads. This would lower cost for rail freight in Europe along with a unified freight reservation system to allocate path transition between nations. Until then dreams persist. 

 

 

Do you have a source for that?

Maybe they do not need the kind of extreme heavy haul system that we have.  Maybe their system is more light and nimble than ours and thus matches the demands of their transportation market.  Indeed, it seems that our market is changing to require a system that is more like that of Europe.   

 

 

No one said they want it to be a copycat system like ours. They would like to run longer trians with a heavier axle load, and the ability to run DS..They've been testing these scenarios out for that very reason..

https://www.railjournal.com/opinion/time-is-not-on-the-side-of-european-rail-freight-operators

https://www.railjournal.com/freight/fret-sncf-trials-1000m-long-freight-trains/

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-is-europe-so-absurdly-backward-compared-to-the-u-s-in-rail-freight-transport

https://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/international-rail/europe/european-rail-operators-losing-containerized-freight-road-transport_20160701.html

https://books.google.com/books?id=Xn-8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=SNCF+fret+1000m+trains&source=bl&ots=fXcdsMYzaX&sig=ACfU3U0cXRBLOvCzlmC_vGKYf4nNiBEL_g&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1uaSb1ePpAhXYK80KHZrMBn4Q6AEwAnoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=SNCF%20fret%201000m%20trains&f=false

 

 
Rahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Posted by MikeInPlano on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 1:39 PM

ttrraaffiicc
The reality is that during this pandemic, huge amounts of freight will shift from rail to road and never come back.

Why?  What is it about the pandemic that's causing a shift?  If anything, I'd expect the opposite, as it takes fewer people to move a given amount of freight by rail than by truck (the people actually interacting with the freight, that is), so I'd think rail would be a better way to maintain reduced human interaction ala social distancing.

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 6:51 PM

MikeInPlano
 
ttrraaffiicc
The reality is that during this pandemic, huge amounts of freight will shift from rail to road and never come back. 

Why?  What is it about the pandemic that's causing a shift?  If anything, I'd expect the opposite, as it takes fewer people to move a given amount of freight by rail than by truck (the people actually interacting with the freight, that is), so I'd think rail would be a better way to maintain reduced human interaction ala social distancing.

I guess Canada didn't get the same memo as ttrraaffiicc - they just moved traffic.

https://www.progressiverailroading.com/canadian_national/news/CN-set-grain-haul-record-in-May--60582

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 7:37 PM

BaltACD

 

 
MikeInPlano
 
ttrraaffiicc
The reality is that during this pandemic, huge amounts of freight will shift from rail to road and never come back. 

Why?  What is it about the pandemic that's causing a shift?  If anything, I'd expect the opposite, as it takes fewer people to move a given amount of freight by rail than by truck (the people actually interacting with the freight, that is), so I'd think rail would be a better way to maintain reduced human interaction ala social distancing.

 

I guess Canada didn't get the same memo as ttrraaffiicc - they just moved traffic.

https://www.progressiverailroading.com/canadian_national/news/CN-set-grain-haul-record-in-May--60582

 

I'm optimistic that things will soon change as 123,424 yet to be invented, driverless trucks replace the CN trains that hauled 2.52 million metric tons of Canadian grain in May.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 8:45 PM

SD60MAC9500
 
 
Euclid

 

 
SD60MAC9500
 
It's known that Euro Railfreight operators would love to have a much larger loading gauge, with the ability to run longer trains, double stacks, along with heavier axle loads. This would lower cost for rail freight in Europe along with a unified freight reservation system to allocate path transition between nations. Until then dreams persist. 

 

 

Do you have a source for that?

Maybe they do not need the kind of extreme heavy haul system that we have.  Maybe their system is more light and nimble than ours and thus matches the demands of their transportation market.  Indeed, it seems that our market is changing to require a system that is more like that of Europe.   

 

 

 

 

No one said they want it to be a copycat system like ours. They would like to run longer trians with a heavier axle load, and the ability to run DS..They've been testing these scenarios out for that very reason..

https://www.railjournal.com/opinion/time-is-not-on-the-side-of-european-rail-freight-operators

https://www.railjournal.com/freight/fret-sncf-trials-1000m-long-freight-trains/

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-is-europe-so-absurdly-backward-compared-to-the-u-s-in-rail-freight-transport

https://www.joc.com/rail-intermodal/international-rail/europe/european-rail-operators-losing-containerized-freight-road-transport_20160701.html

https://books.google.com/books?id=Xn-8BAAAQBAJ&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=SNCF+fret+1000m+trains&source=bl&ots=fXcdsMYzaX&sig=ACfU3U0cXRBLOvCzlmC_vGKYf4nNiBEL_g&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1uaSb1ePpAhXYK80KHZrMBn4Q6AEwAnoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=SNCF%20fret%201000m%20trains&f=false

 

 
 

Thanks for those references.  I will take a look a them. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 8:48 PM

tree68

 

 
charlie hebdo
1. Sell the track and ROWs cheaply to the government and use the recovered cash to do the profitable thing - operate revenue-generating train.  

 

A problem with this approach is that in today's railroad financial climate, what would happen after "Sell the track" would be to move the money in total to the bottom line to be harvested by the investors.

 

Then some of the existing railroads would be quaint history.  The track and ROW, owned and maintained in a rational,  upgraded system would be available to idea-driven organizations that want to run profitable trains as a transportion niche, as truck lines do now on a federal highway system. 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 9:47 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 
Murphy Siding

 

 
charlie hebdo

1. Sell the track and ROWs cheaply to the government and use the recovered cash to do the profitable thing - operate revenue-generating train.  

2. Beef up marketing and sales with people who know what that means. Find new niches. 

 

 

 

I doubt they could sell the track and ROWs *cheaply* to anybody considering the amount of capital the railroads have invested in them.

 

 

 

 

It's unavailable capital that isn't productive. That's the problem and it costs a lot to maintain. 

I know nothing about futuremidal, but he seems to have had some ideas that challenge this same ol' same ol'thinking. So do Oltmann and Greyhounds. 

 

For reference, Futuremodal was a guy named Dave from Washington state who pushed (and pushed, and pushed) open access for the railroads. His idea was that the federal government would buy all the ROW and then sell the track space to the highest bidder to companies operating the trains. To say that it lead to lively discussions doesn't even come close.

      If anyone can figure out how to find an old thread through the impossible search function, look up "OAT- the Open Access Thread".

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Posted by zugmann on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 11:19 PM

Murphy Siding
      If anyone can figure out how to find an old thread through the impossible search function, look up "OAT- the Open Access Thread".

http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/111/t/42044.aspx?page=1

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 6:29 AM

 

 

 

 

 

Ah yes, the Europe vs United States comparison again completely silly in this case.......

I think we have to be honest here about European frieght.   The Eurozone is still not a unified country per se and you still have each Euro country competing against each other for steel production, auto production and the like.    Additionally thier nationalized rail systems are roughly several Wisconsin and Southerns pieced together and end at the countries border.     Think of running freight in that scenario across state lines as one train with crew change points in which both the crew and railroad change.    It has to be fairly expensive to ship by rail in Europe compared to trucking lines.    Many European trucking lines crossed the borders a long time ago.    Not a lot of rail freight companies have.     Where is there even land space in Europe for Internal ports for Intermodal Trains?     Many of Europes major cities are on a major River or near a Major Port making cross country intermodal trains in Europe far less economic with all the rail systems they have to traverse, in my view.

Europeans also built their highways and infrastructure differently and it is far more durable to heavier truck weights than ours is.   Further look at European truck trailers, some have three axles compared to the United States' two.    Tandem trucks in Europe are far more numerous than in the United States.   I would venture to say the European Trucking Industry is far different than that of the United States as well.    

International trip vs International Trip.    United States international movement could involve Canada to Mexico via the United States fairly routinely now.   That kind of several thousand mile movement in Europe I see as a rarity for a frieght car or series of frieght cars in Europe.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 8:01 AM

Even on that thread,  there is largely sarcasm and humor than a serious discussion of how a separation of ROW ownership and maintenance from operators might lead to an improvement in rail transportation. 

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Posted by jsanchez on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 9:13 AM

Murphy Siding
Actually with PSR unit trains are being deemphasized. If traffic can be moved on a manifest train it will go on as a block, to save crew starts. The only thing I like about PSR is it has a lot of focus on moving loose car load freight more efficiently, a lot of the customers like that they can get 7 day a week service. Local service has increased at most locations also more coordination with shortlines has been occuring.

  I did not like this, but intermodal sevice is what has been cut the most, CSX just closed their Pittsburgh terminal, hundreds of intermodal service lanes have been eliminated, why because the business was low volume low margin, which kills the operating ratio. I think long run railroads will do just fine, the industry definitely going through a lot of changes! No need for so much doom and gloom! Car load freight is definitely not dead, before the pandemic a lot of new industry siding projects were being developed or opening, even on class ones.

 

 
ttrraaffiicc
 

 

 

Carload is dying and this presents a huge problem. The majority of rail revenues and volumes come from carload. Intermodal accounts for a much smaller share of revenue and tonnage handled by railroads. When carload dies, so too will the majority of freight rail.

 

 

 

Didn't you get the memo? Carload died a long time ago. It was replaced by unit trains. Unit trains- you know, the ones you don't want to talk about because they can't be replaced by fleets of driverless elctric trucks that don't exist yet.

 

 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 9:50 AM

charlie hebdo

Even on that thread,  there is largely sarcasm and humor than a serious discussion of how a separation of ROW ownership and maintenance from operators might lead to an improvement in rail transportation. 

 

     That was about the 20th thread about Open Access by that point, and the two sides had long been delineated.  The thread was an attempt to consolidate all the open access discussion into one spot- for better or for worse. Most of the long winded, anonymous replies are by Futuremodal; some are by other posters who no longer have accounts on the forum. It looks too, like there are also replies to posts that are not there anymore.

 

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 9:52 AM

zugmann
 
Murphy Siding
      If anyone can figure out how to find an old thread through the impossible search function, look up "OAT- the Open Access Thread".

 

http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/111/t/42044.aspx?page=1

 

How did you find that?

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 10:19 AM

Futuremodal seemed to believe that open access, Roadrailers and dual-power locomotives would save American railroading.  After reading some of his responses to my posts, I came to the conclusion that he was really looking for more variety in his trainwatching.

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 11:44 AM

Murphy Siding
How did you find that?

Some of the longer threads come up very fast in Google, as I found when looking for the post about Michael Sol's fields of experience.  As someone noted, using cs.trains.com as one of the search terms can greatly accelerate finding threads.

Often you can piece together 'who was who' in the now-anonymous posts by looking at the quotes, where the account names usually remain intact in the quote-tag syntax (the same literal parsing that makes emoticons in quoted text become just the ASCII characters and not picture smileys).

It was interesting to compare Dave Smith's futures with John Kneiling's, the whole TOFC revolution represented by HPIT, the Iron Highway, and like things having essentially come and gone in the years between (not to mention systems based like mine on sideloading to rack flats, or on Fuel Foiler-like extremely-low-tare skeleton cars with kangaroo pockets).

Much of the 'subsequent future' has been dominated by a very different paradigm, involving stack operations enabled by inexpensive Asian goods, centralization of logistics and dispatch, peak speed reductions and greater emphasis on fuel conservation from increasingly 'computerized' locomotives, and the rise of the PSR craze.  We have Aldo been treated to some object lessons on where RoadRailer-style augmented vans, either with 'their own wheels' or special bogies, are actually competitive long-term... and why RoadRailer container chassis are almost always a solution looking for a problem they won't solve at all cost-effectively.

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Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 8:31 PM

I don't have a problem with the basic concept of open access.  

But there are a plethora of questions on how to implement it, and that's where the problems begin.   The devil, as they say, is in the details.

As CH suggested a few posts ago, the current railroad companies probably wouldn't last too long as OA would depend on going out and looking for loads (a la trucking), and lately the Class Ones haven't exactly been active in the marketing arena.

Mind you, I don't look at it with the same single mindedness as FM.  It's just another direction things could go.

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Posted by Gramp on Wednesday, June 3, 2020 10:12 PM

Well, the last couple months has served as a dry run for what it'd be like with no passenger trains. Hard to say they would be missed. 

If the railroads run their freight biz into the ground, let 'em do it. Just don't foist it off onto the govt. It's got more than enough on its plate. 

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