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Chatterbox Spring 2020

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Posted by JoeKoh on Wednesday, May 20, 2020 4:16 PM

afternoon

Rain is done we hope.Stopped in Stryker after work.Ns sent a westbound stack train.Water is going down.Might take care of the swamp tomorrow.Getting things ready for Deshler on Saturday.Going to be different than usual for sure.Chores to do.

stay safe

Joe

Deshler Ohio-crossroads of the B&O Matt eats your fries.YUM! Clinton st viaduct undefeated against too tall trucks!!!(voted to be called the "Clinton St. can opener").

 

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Posted by tree68 on Wednesday, May 20, 2020 7:02 PM

Spent the day putting new planking on a 1953 flat car.  We got it down to a routine, but still only got half of it done.  Second round next week.

If you use the same caution/protective measures you used last December, you'll be fine.  Prevalence of this virus is now being compared to that of the flu, with better than a 99.9% survival rate.  In fact, now that they've figured out that ventilators were exactly the wrong treatment, it might be even more than 99.9%.  You're probably safer in the restaurant than driving to it.

Research has found that upwards of 60% of those who test positive are asymptomatic, and that as many as 15% of the population already has the antibodies.

Despite the scare tactics of the petit tyrants. this will be over before you know it.

LarryWhistling
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Posted by Erik_Mag on Wednesday, May 20, 2020 10:25 PM

tree68

If you use the same caution/protective measures you used last December, you'll be fine.  Prevalence of this virus is now being compared to that of the flu, with better than a 99.9% survival rate.

Those numbers are true for young people, suspect infection fatality rate for our age (i'm 65) is on the order of 1% and increases greatly with age. Reports of median age of deaths typically run around 80 to 82 years. That's why Dr's Birx and Fauci told the governors that long term care facilities needed to be a central part of planning at the national governors meeting in early February.

There's still a lot to be learned on how the disease get transmitted, though looking like the majority of cases it's by small droplets given off by loud talking, singing, coughing and sneezing. There are some hints that inhaling one or very few virus particles (as opposed to droplets containing many virii) does not result in infection. Makes me wonder if the high antibody rate in prisons may be due to multiple very low level exposures, which sensitizes the immune system.

Note the "loud talking" transmission suggests that restrictions be coninued on indoor bars, but banning sunbathing at beaches does not make any sense.

The main stream media has done a terrible job of covering the COVID-19 story.

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, May 21, 2020 7:23 AM

Erik_Mag
The main stream media has done a terrible job of covering the COVID-19 story.

But they've done a great job of justifying all the restrictions.  Whose side are they on?

LarryWhistling
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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, May 21, 2020 7:40 AM

tree68
 
Erik_Mag
The main stream media has done a terrible job of covering the COVID-19 story. 

But they've done a great job of justifying all the restrictions.  Whose side are they on?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Thursday, May 21, 2020 8:00 AM

Pennsylvania's Secretary of Health has said that her criteria* for reopening each county - I've seen nothing that explains whether that means "yellow", "green", or no restrictions at all - is "not more than 50 new cases per 100,000 population in the most recent 14-day period".  That standard is rarely reported - probably too confusing for the sound-bite types - and until yesterday, I've not seen the actual numbers in the mainstream media (or anyplace else).  Instead, they're content to report the daily and total new cases and deaths, plus whatever else grabs their attention. 

I don't have the time to do the research, compile the data, and crunch the numbers, but yesterday one PA newspaper/ website did publish the data in that form on a county-by-county basis - the Patriot-News/ pennlive.com.  Some were zero and way below 50, but my county - Lehigh - is now at 139.2, neighboring Northampton is 156, and a couple of the suburban Philly counties - Bucks and Montgomery - were in the 160's and 170's.  All of these (and others) designated "red" on the PA state map, and if that's going to be the metric - and considering the trend line - I don't see the restrictions easing here until the end of June.  (Dauphin County, where the state capital is and the Patriot-News is based, was 102.)  

- PDN. 

EDITED TO ADD: *A couple weeks ago a Muhlenberg College professor with some expertise in public health commented that there was no consensus or basis for that particular number.  

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, May 21, 2020 8:40 AM

Paul_D_North_Jr
- I don't see the restrictions easing here until the end of June.  (Dauphin County, where the state capital is and the Patriot-News is based, was 102.)  

Don't worry - the jackasses in the state house that can't pass a budget on time to save their lives are all worked up about trying to fire the Secretary of Health, or to force everything green (that's if the local yokel morons don't set their counties to green first - at the risk of losing state money). 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by samfp1943 on Thursday, May 21, 2020 10:12 AM

zugmann

 

 
Paul_D_North_Jr
- I don't see the restrictions easing here until the end of June.  (Dauphin County, where the state capital is and the Patriot-News is based, was 102.)   

Don't worry - the jackasses in the state house that can't pass a budget on time to save their lives are all worked up about trying to fire the Secretary of Health, or to force everything green (that's if the local yokel morons don't set their counties to green first - at the risk of losing state money). 

 

 
  Thursday: 05/21/2020.. Out here in the 'middle'  we are going to be allowed to'ease' restrictions on Friday....Just in time to celebrate Memorial Day!  Of Course, the usual restrictions will apply. Sigh  
 Was just eating breakfast when the 2nd train since 5 AM rolled thru...3 units on head- end, solid import cans.   Followed about 10 min by a second train; 2 units on head- end. [ guess length was about 5K' (?) on both trains. But the strange thing was; at the end of the second train was a DPU with Five working units! [ it was obvious from the heavy exhausts]  and trailing it was a solid string of long string of domestic cans. 
Had not seen that large a DPU set-up on anything thru here before. Most of the 'land barges' are two or three units on  head end, one or two units in the middle and usually one [ or none] on the rear, in DPU.   
It sure looked like they had just put two trains together;  to make the second train
Would that be possibly, due to shortage of crews?  Hardly, seems likely, because the traffic is obviously down'.    Just asking.  Whistling

 

 


 

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Posted by Deggesty on Thursday, May 21, 2020 4:15 PM

Most of Utah, I understand, will be "yellow" by this weekend. Salt Lake County will be "orange." The worst area is in the southeast; there is a high proportion of cases among the Diné there.

Johnny

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Thursday, May 21, 2020 5:04 PM

Paul_D_North_Jr

Pennsylvania's Secretary of Health has said that her criteria* for reopening each county - I've seen nothing that explains whether that means "yellow", "green", or no restrictions at all - is "not more than 50 new cases per 100,000 population in the most recent 14-day period".

San Diego County has been running about 100 new confirmed cases per day for the last couple of weeks, with a population of 3.3 million that translates into about 50 new cases per 100,000 in a 14 day period. IMHO, a better metric would be new hospital admissions or bed usage trends as the new case number depends heavily on testing. FWIW, SD county is running about 3% positive for the last few days.

Case load in SD county is heavily weighted to zip codes directly across the border from Tijuana - this is from a map in a weekly report from the SD County website. One other item of interest from the report is the median age at death associated with COVID-19 is 78 years. Case fatality rate for the 60 to 69 age group is about 4%, implying an infection fatality rate perhaps 1 to 2%. For the under 40 crowd, infection fatality rate is probably less than 0.1%.

 

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Posted by JoeKoh on Thursday, May 21, 2020 5:26 PM

evening

Ns was clear after work.Ran errands in town.Matt is back to work tonight.This morning we found his graduation sign in our front yard.I also mowed the swamp when I got home.Going to see friends at Deshler on Saturday but with social distancing guidelines in place.Glad tomorrow is Friday.

stay safe

Joe

Deshler Ohio-crossroads of the B&O Matt eats your fries.YUM! Clinton st viaduct undefeated against too tall trucks!!!(voted to be called the "Clinton St. can opener").

 

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, May 21, 2020 6:22 PM

The state of Georgia publishes a map of state by county.  By hovering over each county you get the case rate by 100k population and also death rate by 100k.  IMO that gives a better idea where the virus is ttaking its toll.  Raw numbers are not as enlighting.  Note case rate and death rate at Albany Ga even though it is not a red county.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report 

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, May 21, 2020 7:42 PM

blue streak 1
IMO that gives a better idea where the virus is ttaking its toll. 

That's been an issue here in NY.  Early on, fully 96% of the reported cases were in the City and surrounding counties.  Meanwhile, here in the north woods, one county has reached all of 15 confirmed cases.  

Unfortunately, the "Pause" was applied as a blanket to the whole state, not to the areas actually affected.

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
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Posted by Erik_Mag on Thursday, May 21, 2020 11:07 PM

tree68

 Unfortunately, the "Pause" was applied as a blanket to the whole state, not to the areas actually affected.

That's what I liked about Florida's approach, have the strictest measures in counties with the highest caseload and more relaxed measures in areas not as heavily hit. They also made an effort to protect the nursing homes - DeSantis comes acrosss as being much more on top of the situation than the press gives him credit for.

San Diego County gives daily updates on the numbers with one report being the total (i.e. cumulative) confirmed cases per zip code, with per capita stats for zip codes with more than 10,000 residents. My zip code has be showing 4 for at least a month. The daily new case count is only for the whole county.

Weather forecast for Memorial day weekend looks nice, high's in the low 70's and should be good beach going weather. Still can't see any harm in letting people sunbathe.

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Posted by tree68 on Friday, May 22, 2020 9:21 AM

Erik_Mag
San Diego County gives daily updates on the numbers with one report being the total (i.e. cumulative) confirmed cases per zip code, with per capita stats for zip codes with more than 10,000 residents.

Colorado just got slapped for how they reported deaths.  They were reporting all deaths that involved COVID together.  Now that they've "corrected," they will report the deaths either as COVID caused (ie, the death is the direct result of the virus), or COVID involved (Aunt Fanny's long-standing health issues finally caught up with her, but she also tested positive for the virus).   For Colorado, that involved moving around a quarter of their deaths into the new category.

If the entire country reported like that, it would greatly change the picture.  As it is right now, it's possible that even a massive trauma from a motor vehicle collision might be classified COVID if the deceased tested positive.

And that's the CDC guideline.

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Friday, May 22, 2020 2:57 PM

I'm not really sure just how the SD County health department classifies what is and what isn't a COVID death. I do wonder what the motive was for Colorado's classification scheme or for that matter what the CDC's motives for their classification scheme.

"Non-essential" retail stores and dine-in restaurants are supposed to be opening up in the county with social distancing guidelines. The latter will be nice as "dining out" for my wife and I has been getting take-out or drive-through and eating the meal in the car.

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Posted by JoeKoh on Friday, May 22, 2020 3:39 PM

afternoon

Ns was clear after work.Guy tried to mow this afternoon but mother nature sent him a stray shower so he stopped.Getting things around for Deshler.Going to be nice tomorrow.

stay safe

Joe

Deshler Ohio-crossroads of the B&O Matt eats your fries.YUM! Clinton st viaduct undefeated against too tall trucks!!!(voted to be called the "Clinton St. can opener").

 

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Posted by JoeKoh on Sunday, May 24, 2020 5:27 AM

morning

Deshler was interesting yesterday.Old friends new friends and trains.Had a rail train go east.Also had a Mow "tonka toy" train go around the Se connection and go east as well.Going to get stuff put away.

stay safe

Joe

Deshler Ohio-crossroads of the B&O Matt eats your fries.YUM! Clinton st viaduct undefeated against too tall trucks!!!(voted to be called the "Clinton St. can opener").

 

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Posted by tree68 on Sunday, May 24, 2020 6:43 AM

Saw the Tonka toys on the cam.  Missed the rail train.  Got some yardwork done, with more to follow.  I've got several projects that have been ready to go for a while, just have to get them done.  

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
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Posted by Deggesty on Sunday, May 24, 2020 7:52 AM

Nice cool spring morning here--42 degrees at 6:51. We had rain yesterday morning--and we needed it and more.

Johnny

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Posted by mudchicken on Sunday, May 24, 2020 12:45 PM

Deggesty

Nice cool spring morning here--42 degrees at 6:51. We had rain yesterday morning--and we needed it and more.

 

Where the rail train goes, the steel gang is sure to follow.  (now if they had the tie plates and anchors to go with that secondhand steel, the sidings /yards/backtracks et al would really benefit.)

Mudchicken Nothing is worth taking the risk of losing a life over. Come home tonight in the same condition that you left home this morning in. Safety begins with ME.... cinscocom-west
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Posted by diningcar on Sunday, May 24, 2020 12:52 PM

[quote user="Deggesty"]

Nice cool spring morning here--42 degrees at 6:51. We had rain yesterday morning--and we needed it and more.

 Just turned on the AC in humid eastern KS with outside temps in the high 80's
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Posted by CShaveRR on Sunday, May 24, 2020 2:13 PM

Good morning!  We just "attended" our church service as it was streamed.  Pat has given up on me and contracted a mowing service to make sure our grass stays short (we were getting complaints from the wildlife that had to go through it completely covered).

Johnny, I wish I could contribute some of the rain we've been getting lately...we've already had a record rainfall for the month, and there's more coming for pretty much the rest of the week (it's sunny at the moment, though, and up to 86º this afternoon).

Carl

Railroader Emeritus (practiced railroading for 46 years--and in 2010 I finally got it right!)

CAACSCOCOM--I don't want to behave improperly, so I just won't behave at all. (SM)

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Posted by JoeKoh on Monday, May 25, 2020 5:08 AM

Good morning

Rain has been going around us here in NW Ohio.Another warm day today.Went back to the old hometown and took time to remember.Ns sent a westbound grain train on the NKP.Csx had q 191 going west with containers.Going out for a walk along the city walk path.Will look at what CSX can send.(If Garrett is unplugged).

stay safe

Joe

Deshler Ohio-crossroads of the B&O Matt eats your fries.YUM! Clinton st viaduct undefeated against too tall trucks!!!(voted to be called the "Clinton St. can opener").

 

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Posted by CShaveRR on Monday, May 25, 2020 2:15 PM

We had rain overnight, and are due to get still more today.  I'm going to try and get out into the back yard today and do some trimming of weeds and limbs.

Our temperature, officially, reached 90º yesterday...it was still balmy out there well after the sun went down.

Pat and I, before the noon raising of the flags to full staff (does anyone still follow that tradition on Memorial Day?), went up the street to our local cemetery to see whether flags had been placed by the soldiers' markers.  They had, but it was hardly a reverent placement--they still had their UPC tags attached.  (Thankfully, they were made in the U.S.A.!)  We did what we could before coming back for our lunch.

 

Carl

Railroader Emeritus (practiced railroading for 46 years--and in 2010 I finally got it right!)

CAACSCOCOM--I don't want to behave improperly, so I just won't behave at all. (SM)

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, May 25, 2020 3:11 PM

CShaveRR
...(does anyone still follow that tradition on Memorial Day?)...

I do, although I was a little late with the raising today.  I wonder how many people are actually aware of the custom?

Normally our local Legion posts handle that, but they didn't do any of their ceremonies today.  A couple of local veterans made sure the cemetary flags were at half staff, as well as the fire department's.  I haven't been out since noon to see if they were raised again.

LarryWhistling
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Posted by Deggesty on Monday, May 25, 2020 5:16 PM

Carl, Larry, I trust that you (unless you leave your flags out all the time) first ran the flag up to full staff and then lowered it to half-mast.

Since I now live in assisted living, I do not handle a flag. There is a flag in front, which flies night and day. When I lived in my own house and in my daughter's basement (a little over two years) I did fly the flag on specified holidays, including 22 February.

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, May 25, 2020 9:13 PM

Deggesty
Carl, Larry, I trust that you (unless you leave your flags out all the time) first ran the flag up to full staff and then lowered it to half-mast.

Had I raised the flag "from scratch," I would have done so.  My flag flies 24/7 and is lit up at night.

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

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Posted by Deggesty on Tuesday, May 26, 2020 7:47 AM

tree68

 

 
Deggesty
Carl, Larry, I trust that you (unless you leave your flags out all the time) first ran the flag up to full staff and then lowered it to half-mast.

 

Had I raised the flag "from scratch," I would have done so.  My flag flies 24/7 and is lit up at night.

 

Good boy!

Johnny

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Posted by CShaveRR on Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:10 AM

We don't have a flag, but you're absolutely correct, Johnny.  

Carl

Railroader Emeritus (practiced railroading for 46 years--and in 2010 I finally got it right!)

CAACSCOCOM--I don't want to behave improperly, so I just won't behave at all. (SM)

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