Well, I hope for your sake that you're exaggerating, at least a little.
Take care of yourself.
I will be seeing a dermatologist about an ugly thing growing on my leg.
Speaking of TP, has anyone noticed how the makers have nattowed the rolls. When my home was built 22 years ago, the bathroom TP holder was designed for rolls being 4.5 inches wide. Then I was seeing 4.25 in. Now most are 3.9 or 4.0 in wide. And the toilet paper in the big roll in the restroom at Wal-Mart is 3 inches wide. Enough. Seems like they are soon going to string.
Electroliner 1935 Speaking of TP, has anyone noticed how the makers have nattowed the rolls. When my home was built 22 years ago, the bathroom TP holder was designed for rolls being 4.5 inches wide. Then I was seeing 4.25 in. Now most are 3.9 or 4.0 in wide. And the toilet paper in the big roll in the restroom at Wal-Mart is 3 inches wide. Enough. Seems like they are soon going to string.
Yeah, I thought so. I've never measured them, but they do look narrower on the holder.
_____________
"A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner
Ironically, it's turning out that one of the early manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 is gastrointestinal problems - a phenomenon that is just now being realized.
Maybe those folks hoarding TP were actually on to something...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
GERALD L MCFARLANE JR Correction, they're under equipped to handle all the cases including the ones they don't need to handle, like the 80% of people that will exhibit mild to no symptoms. If you fall in that 80% category you don't need to do anything, I myself wouldn't bother going to the Dr. with mild symptoms, why waste their time and mine. By the time I've recovered my body will have made it's anti-bodies and I'll have nothing to worry about a re-occurence. Let them handle the ones that need it, the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions that make them more susceptible. I'm actually not even concerned about getting the virus, just like all the spring breakers, I want to get it, just so my body can do it's job. "Social distancing" is an oxymoron, you can't be social and distance yourself at the same time...it doesn't work, just like shelter-in-place, this isn't some gas leak or chlorine spill, it's a virus, heck it's not even Ebola, MERS, or SARS, each of which are considerably more deadly.
Correction, they're under equipped to handle all the cases including the ones they don't need to handle, like the 80% of people that will exhibit mild to no symptoms. If you fall in that 80% category you don't need to do anything, I myself wouldn't bother going to the Dr. with mild symptoms, why waste their time and mine. By the time I've recovered my body will have made it's anti-bodies and I'll have nothing to worry about a re-occurence. Let them handle the ones that need it, the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions that make them more susceptible. I'm actually not even concerned about getting the virus, just like all the spring breakers, I want to get it, just so my body can do it's job.
"Social distancing" is an oxymoron, you can't be social and distance yourself at the same time...it doesn't work, just like shelter-in-place, this isn't some gas leak or chlorine spill, it's a virus, heck it's not even Ebola, MERS, or SARS, each of which are considerably more deadly.
You are absolutely correct, and I agree with you 100%. HOWEVER, the same mindless hysterics who cleaned out the grocery stores will be screaming for a doctor after the first cough.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
SALfanYou are absolutely correct, and I agree with you 100%. HOWEVER, the same mindless hysterics who cleaned out the grocery stores will be screaming for a doctor after the first cough.
Word has been put out by the medical people locally pretty much as Gerald points out. The ERs are triaging pretty heavily - show up with something you don't need to be there and you'll likely get shown the door. Several satellite clinics have been closed.
Similarly, our emergency dispatchers are asking some pointed questions. While they can't refuse to dispatch an ambulance, just having to answer the questions might discourage some who really don't need to go. Or they can just call a cab.
I've talked to a number of friends who aren't all to sure they haven't already had this virus. There was a bug going around in the December-January timeframe that was suspiciously similar.
It still really bugs me that so far this flu season there have been some 22,000 deaths from the flu, yet no one has closed down businesses or schools (except those which didn't have enough people to bother opening - that happened to several schools here earlier in the year). "Social distancing," which should have been a fact of life for those at risk (the same people who are at risk with SARS-CoV-2), but hadn't even been thought of.
This will pass, regardless of what the government tries to do to stem the tide. In fact, the current actions may actually prolong the problem.
tree68This will pass, regardless of what the government tries to do to stem the tide. In fact, the current actions may actually prolong the problem.
It will probably pass, and, yes, the current actions WILL prolong the problem. But, if they don't "slow it down" the health care system will be overwhelmed and totally fail, thus lots more will die. If you look at some of the charts the government is showing there is either a short (time wise) peak or a prolonged curve. The short peak will kill more than the long curve, but the long curve is MANY MONTHS instead if a few Weeks. The number of deaths in the few weeks would be many more than the number over the many months. Thus they are shooting for the long curve.
Will it work? Won't know until it is over and then it is only a guess as to whether some other course of action would have been better. Unless you'd like to start over with some other virus and play it some other way, and then you can compare those two courses of action and know which was better, but would that "better" one be better than some other course of action?
Semper Vaporo
Pkgs.
Isn't that the point, though?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
I'm not sure how many times our local hospitals have gone on "medical diversion" already this year - it's quite a few, and well before SARS-CoV-2 made its appearance.
So far, my county is sitting at exactly one positive, with one person from another area who was here for several days also being positive. Testing is available for those exhibiting symptoms. at this point just 30 tests have been given, per this morning's paper.
Meanwhile, NY had over 7,000 confirmed flu cases this past week, down 15% from last week. Flu season in general is waning.
According to CDC information, the number of new cases of SARS-CoV-2 may already be dropping. The folks who aren't sick today would have been infected around two weeks ago, before all the panic set in.
Has it been determined that having the virus confers immunity? I haven't seen anything stated one way or the other.
I wouldn't count on it. I've had the regular flu a number of times in my 66 years, so there's no immunity for that one. I'm not a scientist or doctor by any means but I wouldn't assume COVID-19's any different.
Measles, German measles, mumps, chicken pox, I had them all as a kid, but never had them again.
mvlandsw Has it been determined that having the virus confers immunity? I haven't seen anything stated one way or the other.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus
"We don't know very much," says Matt Frieman, a coronavirus researcher at the University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore. "I think there's a very likely scenario where the virus comes through this year, and everyone gets some level of immunity to it, and if it comes back again, we will be protected from it — either completely or if you do get reinfected later, a year from now, then you have much less disease."
"That is the hope," he adds. "But there is no way to know that."
Flintlock76 I've had the regular flu a number of times in my 66 years, so there's no immunity for that one.
The regular seasonal flu morphs from year to year, which is why you keep getting it. This past season there were actually two strains making the rounds. That's also why there's a new flu shot every year, although they don't always hit the nail on the head when they come up with the vaccination each year.
The first SARS (2003) literally disappeared by a year after it made itself known. It was regarded as just as dangerous as the current version (SARS-CoV-2), although we didn't over-react then.
FYI:
Jones 3D Modeling Club https://www.youtube.com/Jones3DModelingClub
Jones1945
But you see these are the wrong statistics, presented in a wrong way.
What you want are the critical-case instances (plotted from just the same 100-overall-case incidence used here), rather than just the overall diagnosed-case rate. In all the previous outbreaks there was an observed decrease in the number of deaths relative to the infection rate, which is not reflected here; that scary yellow extrapolation line (helpfully paired with one for Italy) is only peripherally related to the real major health-related issues for COVID-19.
There is also no correction for something hidden in the methodology: the vast increase in the number of 'diagnosed cases' since the USA got the lead out and actually made conclusive testing available on a widespread and presumably 'cost-effective-enough' basis. Until this effect can be statistically compensated, it produces much the same potential for confusion as in the early days of the 'autism epidemic' where many attributed the rise in incidence to little more than an artifact of better 'syndrome' recognition or different CPT coding.
It may be that, as in Italy, there is an ominous increase in actual ARDS or ;boomer remover'-style morbidity. But you won't see that in the graphic, and there's little way to extract the actually essential information from it.
As was pointed out before, such a graph based on raw numbers is deceiving. When comparing the US situation with other nations, it would be far more accurate to either use the number per some population slice, or to break up the US into comparatively sized regions.
My county, f'rinstance, currently has logged exactly one confirmed case for the 60,000 people. One other case involved a visitor who works part time in this area but is from elsewhere.
Testing is available for those who meet the possible exposure profile.
Simply removing NYC from the rest of the state drops NY greatly in the number of confirmed cases.
It is important to remember that the folks who are symptomatic now were likely exposed before all the hoopla began.
There is also a thought out there that the cold/flu-like symptoms may have been preceeded by gastro-intestinal symptoms in some folks, which would move the symptomatic phase back several days from that first cough.
I agree in that cases per capita makes more sense that raw numbers.
Interesting that tests are readibly available on NYS, where they are discouraged for people in California unless they are showing symptoms, suspect that accounts for a fair part of the >10:1 ratio in confirmed cases where the number of deaths suggest a 6:1 ratio. OTOH, one problem with indiscriminate testing is false positives as a testing of the general population as of March 22, 2020 would likely show a lot more false positives than real cases.
As of late yesterday afternoon, San Diego County was up to 150 cases out of a population of > 3 million. Worrisome statistic is that 25 are hospitalized, though that may be an artifact of the confirmed cases being substantially smalled than actual cases - with perhpas 50% not showing symptoms to make thm eligible for testing.
Use this chart instead:
Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Jones, do you really trust the Chinese and Iranian statistics?
Steve Stattler wrote me:
Dear all,
All Iran experts and Iran -watchers know how hard it is to get reliable data on that country. The regime obscures everything from basic macroeconomic figures to government expenditures and allocations of how much oil and gas Iran sells.
Figuring out the full extent of this viral epidemic in Iran is as difficult as determining accurate figures on anything else there. Iran is still a 'black-hole.
Some figures cannot be doctored, however. These include the lists of flight arrivals into the two main Iranian airports: Khomeini International, {IKA} which is the major Iranian access point to the outside world, and the older Mehrabad Airport, {THR} which is Iran’s busiest domestic hub.
Flight activity at both airports shows clearly the extent of economic meltdown in Iran caused by the virus and economic sanctions. This new medical crisis comes in the wake of punishing sanctions imposed by the Trump administration in 2018.
Before the sanctions were imposed, a daily average of 100 flights, mostly from abroad, landed at Khomeini Airport and 130 flights at Mehrabad, the nexus for domestic flights from Iran’s far-flung cities.
After the second round of sanctions was imposed in the fall of 2018, flight activity fell to approximately 60 flights to Khomeini and 100 to Mehrabad, - a steep cline.
That decline became a plunging crash as news of Iran’s epidemic unfolded, especially in international flights. A look at arrivals into Khomeini Airport on March 3, 2020 shows 32 flights with 11 cancellations, with just a net 21 landings.
A day later, out of 22 flights scheduled to land, only five actually did so. Ten of the flights were listed as “unknown” - that the Mossad has informed the EU, the USA & the UK are illegal flights dealing with arms transport. Six were listed as “scheduled” but never arrived.
Significantly, the five planes that landed were all Iranian carriers.
This re-newed plunge into international isolation can be attributed to the decision of EU and some Asian & Gulf governments that 'informed' their air carriers to cease flights to Iran out of the sense that the Iranians had lost control over the epidemic The devastating economic effects -from 2018, and the uncontrolled viral epidemic have stopped any Iranians from flying out for business or even vacations. Of the eight scheduled flights to Istanbul, Iran’s major gateway to the outside world, none landed. There is little demand. Iranians stay home whether they like it or not. The same was true of the Iranian carriers to Doha and Dubai, two major international connections for Iran. While economics and the epidemic explain why many of these planes did not land, politics in fact explains - the five landings that did occur. Two were from Chinese destinations (Shanghai and Shenzhen) and one was from Beirut, where Hezbollah, Iran’s major proxy, is based. Iranians have accused their government of continuing flights unabated with China for political and economic reasons despite the linkage between the Chinese source of the coronavirus and its spread to Iran. China is Iran’s only major friendly power, as its relationships with Turkey and Russia are problematic. Beijing is heavily invested in Iranian energy production. Iranian domestic travel has also come to an almost halt. Of the 89 flight landings at Mehrabad from domestic destinations scheduled for March 3, 2020, only 27 landed. We recall that in better days, 130 landings took place daily. All told, there were 32 landings at both airports combined, which together service three provinces with a total population of at least 17 million. At Egypt's Cairo Airport, in a country with half the standard of living of Iranians, there were 211 flights to their airport on the same day, even in the face of the [spreading] coronavirus crisis. (Egyptian hospitals are full!).
Jones,. do you believe the charts or do you think Steve has a point?
Dave Klepper
PS: My doubts apply only to China and Iran.
daveklepperJones, do you really trust the Chinese and Iranian statistics?
Dave, I never believe any figures provided by the CCP and other regimes, including Iran and North Korea. Whistleblowers said that they have been burning "corpses" (not all of them were pronounced dead) 7/24 in the Wuhan city since the end of January. I am not sure about other provinces in Mainland China, but I do believe that the situation is getting a little bit better since the first week of March... just a little bit, I guess because even Chairman Xi doesn't know the actual figure. Not too late for President Trump to feel "very disappointed." One thing that I am sure of is that the phone call between President Trump and Chairman Xi is pointless in this situation, the commie lies about everything, and they are very good at it. From their educational backgrounds to age, from GDP to the population of their own country, only the liar is real in China under CCP ruling.
As you know, the CCP is desperate for work resumption at this very moment, testing for coronavirus is unofficially suspended in Mainland China, and many patients were rejected by the hospital and left for dead in their home with their family for the sake of resumption of work. The mortality rate of Covid-19 in China is probably still not high enough to stop the CCP from taking even more foolish and selfish actions, like trying to cover the mess up *again in the next round, like what they did in Dec 2019.
If you want to catch a glimpse of how many Chinese victims were dead, this news might give you some idea:
China’s Mobile Carriers Lose 21 Million Users as Virus Bites
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/china-s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites
"China Mobile subscriptions fell by more than 8 million over January and February, data on the company’s website show"
In Mainland China, a subscriber needs to provide their name and ID for a subscription due to their mass surveillance system. Many did move their subscription to other companies, but a sudden drop of 21 million users is very uncommon, even in Mainland China's standard. Note that this is the first net decline of China's Mobile since starting to report monthly data in 2000.
Appreciate your reply. Thanks!
BNSF notices were not mailed, but through the portal or ipad. Took 22 yrs to become an "essential" employee. Wow
SFbrkmn BNSF notices were not mailed, but through the portal or ipad. Took 22 yrs to become an "essential" employee. Wow
Don't worry, this too shall pass. After all, it's contract negotiating time again.
Jeff
PS. Ours were also through our employee's site.
We got letters too from the shortline association. At least my managers are not "working from home"
If someone could tell me how the three seashells work, my toilet paper issues would end...
I copy the link for reference:
Something missing from the metadata is what they mean by 'recovered'. It is somewhat important, going forward, to discriminate between 'negative for any symptoms' and 'negative for virus presence' -- something I'm still waiting for Cuomo et al. to explain more specifically. I would be very, very glad to find that I'm wrong in thinking that many asymptomatic 'victims' will continue to be infectious...
If the statistics are tracking correctly, yesterday we had an increase in diagnosed cases of something over 100,000, but the corresponding death rate (from all causes) is 'only' about 140; today the new incidence is over 5000, but only 35 deaths. This certainly doesn't appear to show that the death rate mirrors the rate of increase in infection, although this may be an artifact of 'increased testing rate' finding many more "infected" people, or a lag in induction of ARDS or other lethality until days or weeks post-diagnosed virus presence.
What is causing the spikes of lethality in places like Italy and Spain is of considerably more concern. This may be little more than the phenomenon of early spike we saw in other reports on 'pandemic' spread of SARS-CoV-2 clones. But there's certainly no guarantee that in any particular outbreak the numbers might still involve a substantial population of those susceptible to early or prompt death.
I continue to see necessity for an ongoing 'social separation' of many who have been infected from the 'population cohorts at risk' -- not all of whom of course are elderly or immunocompromised, particularly if this ARDS turns out to be even peripherally related to that induced in the deadlier clones of the 1918 H1N1 influenza.
(And one way is to use two seashells on any dingleberries, and the third one as a scraper; I can't provide the accompanying diagrams here. You don't flush them, you recycle them for cleaning and sterilization...)
OvermodIf the statistics are tracking correctly, yesterday we had an increase in diagnosed cases of something over 100,000, but the corresponding death rate (from all causes) is 'only' about 140; today the new incidence is over 5000, but only 35 deaths.
Someone mentioned on our morning radio net that the death rate may be dropping below that of the seasonal flu. If that's the case, maybe we can return to the social isolation levels of the flu outbreak, which is to say - none.
This is dangerous information for the public to have, if you're trying to continue to encourage the "quarantine." Couple that with the fact that in NYS (and likely other similar environments) there were 11,000 confirmed cases as of yesterday, yet less than 400 of that number were in the area outside NYC, LI, and the lower Hudson valley.
As of right now, the county I live in, and the three adjoining counties, have a total of five confirmed cases. This number has not risen exponentially. It's one here, another there.
POTUS has suggested lifting certain restrictions, which some in the health care industry regard as heresy. I would opine that if some restrictions aren't lifted, they're going to be ignored anyhow - particularly in areas with few or no infections.
tree68 Overmod If the statistics are tracking correctly, yesterday we had an increase in diagnosed cases of something over 100,000, but the corresponding death rate (from all causes) is 'only' about 140; today the new incidence is over 5000, but only 35 deaths. Someone mentioned on our morning radio net that the death rate may be dropping below that of the seasonal flu. If that's the case, maybe we can return to the social isolation levels of the flu outbreak, which is to say - none. This is dangerous information for the public to have, if you're trying to continue to encourage the "quarantine." Couple that with the fact that in NYS (and likely other similar environments) there were 11,000 confirmed cases as of yesterday, yet less than 400 of that number were in the area outside NYC, LI, and the lower Hudson valley. As of right now, the county I live in, and the three adjoining counties, have a total of five confirmed cases. This number has not risen exponentially. It's one here, another there. POTUS has suggested lifting certain restrictions, which some in the health care industry regard as heresy. I would opine that if some restrictions aren't lifted, they're going to be ignored anyhow - particularly in areas with few or no infections.
Overmod If the statistics are tracking correctly, yesterday we had an increase in diagnosed cases of something over 100,000, but the corresponding death rate (from all causes) is 'only' about 140; today the new incidence is over 5000, but only 35 deaths.
The biggest fallacy to all these reportings in the US - you can't report confirmed cases unless they have been tested and there aren't sufficient tests available or processing power available to do all the testing necessary to have a real handle on what is actually happening.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACDand there aren't sufficient tests available or processing power available to do all the testing necessary to have a real handle on what is actually happening.
I thought the effective problem of 'enough tests', and the logistic problem associated with getting the testing equipment and supplies to affected areas, had been solved by the beginning of last week. (It would be very fast once the tests got into rapid production, and the various delays that had people from the CDC and NIH falling on swords a few days ago got resolved.)
Much of the problem with current testing appears to be that it involves invasive and said-to-be-painful use of nasal swabbing up into the sinuses to get a proper sample. My guess (so far uninformed) is that practical antibody testing that will work with a variety of 'precious bodily fluids', and perhaps contact tests analogous to those that work with potentially-infected surfaces, will be similarly rolled into volume production reasonably soon.
The data infrastructure involved in coordinating, cleaning up, data-warehousing and subsequently analyzing results of even large numbers of tests is almost trivial in modern terms. The great complicating factor is probably HIPAA. As with a great many other things of this nature, multiple dereferencing of the data make much of the actual 'privacy' concern unimportant ... providing the data have been structured in a way that precludes secondary-factor cross-analysis, which is something that has been brought to a fine and somewhat paranoia-inducing degree by some companies such as insurers.
I thought it was a very bad sign when CDC stopped tracking 'global' statistics for the United States about March 9th. Their 'excuse' appeared to be a point related to this: that local agencies were taking over the testing, and "they" would be the logical points of contact for statistics going forward. I do not recall hearing that any other national agency was taking up the task of 'keeping the American people informed of the progress of the pandemic'. It would be unfortunate if only amateur private organizations or 'the media' take over the job by default...
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