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Freight continues to slump

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Saturday, October 19, 2019 2:17 PM

Since this thread is about freight traffic declining, I have a question as to how much traffic (car loads) is required to sustain a mile of track. It appears to me that many "short lines" don't have the necessary traffic to maintain their track and other structures. As Class 1's spin off branches to short lines, it appears that many don't have the traffic to keep the plant in shape to handle the little traffic remaining. A failure of a bridge or other costly event dooms the railroad. One that I think of is the former N&W RR's peavine line between Portsmouth OH & Cincinnati which was spun off to the CCET after a major bridge failure east of Portsmouth. I see other short lines that don't appear to the untrained eye to do anything more than run a locomotive and move cars but don't maintain their track until it becomes below class 1 and then don't have the capitol to restore it to class 1. Freight has to generate revenue to operate plus maintain the plant. When I look at the miles of track that are no longer operated, I think of trees which have their roots damaged and as they don't get the nutrients, they wither and die. Arborists have told me that some trees need to be pruned match the needs of the canopy to the capacity of the roots. But without the roots, there can be no tree. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Saturday, October 19, 2019 8:29 PM

IMO,  based on comments of Greyhounds and others,  along with annual reports,  the majors stopped going after anything other than bulk trainloads and intermodal long before PSR.  

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Posted by zugmann on Saturday, October 19, 2019 10:43 PM

Electroliner 1935
Since this thread is about freight traffic declining, I have a question as to how much traffic (car loads) is required to sustain a mile of track

I once read it is 100 cars per mile per year.  Don't know how true that is, but it's a starting point I guess?

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by zugmann on Saturday, October 19, 2019 10:44 PM

charlie hebdo
IMO, based on comments of Greyhounds and others, along with annual reports, the majors stopped going after anything other than bulk trainloads and intermodal long before PSR.

I am hearing viscious rumors about PSR going after our intermodal next year.  Doesn't sound good.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by Psychot on Sunday, October 20, 2019 3:00 AM

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charlie hebdo

Your blatant and long  political posts do not belong on here. 

 

 

 

 

Why because I don't take everything the Media feeds us like a Sheep like the want us to.  I refuse to believe what they are feeding us.  Anyone think they are telling us the truth after the crap ABC did with their Syria report trying to pass off a gun range free fire event from Kentucky as an attack.  Just watch them they all parrot the same talking points are trying to push the same candidate down our throats refuse to allow anyone that has a different viewpoint on their shows.  

 

Yes I am a stauch conservative and get a lot of heat for it even from my own family.  However I can tell the difference between a Media that kisses the rear end of one party and does nothing but tries to destroy the other.  Sorry but I will continue to call out bias as I see it in all forms of the media at that inculdes here.

 

Now to get this thread back on topic the reason why freight is slumping is 2 fold.  First the Railroads driving off smaller shippers via PSR aka saying sorry unless your willing to do 100 million a year in revenue with us we do not want your business anymore along with cutting IM service lanes and that left more lanes for trucks to cover.  2nd the trade war and the continuing transfer of coal energy to gas power in the energy sectors.  Why keep hauling coal over 1000 miles when you can have it delivered to the plant in a pipeline right to your burners.  On the Trade war look for a major breakthrough in the winter.  Why am I say then simple China can not make it thru the winter with their current supplies of food stocked up.  They have way to many people to feed and not enough stored up to do it.  These figures are coming from friends inside China proper.  They lost 60% of their soybeans 50% of their rice 70% of their wheat to the Army worm.  Now on the Meat side they lost 60% of their entire pork population and 90% of the breeding sows.  Then on the Poultry side they lost 50% of all their chickens.  They are facing a severe food shortage this winter and they already buy 50% of all the exported crops worldwide.  They are bent over the barrel and Xi is going to either have to give in or from what I have heard he is going to be faced with open revolt by the people that are already seeing their food being rationed. 

 

You (and our leadership) vastly underestimate the ability of a dictatorship and police state to suppress dissent. Xi learned from Gorby’s mistakes, and he’s not going to repeat them. Moreover, the Chinese know full well that all they have to do is wait Trump out until the U.S. economy really starts to feel the pain of the trade war—or 2024, whichever comes first. So if you’re waiting for open revolt in China to change the equation, get comfortable.

I suppose it’s possible that China and the U.S. will reach some sort of trade agreement, but I can guarantee it won’t deal with intellectual property theft or state-owned industries in any substantive fashion. Those are the core issues that need to be resolved, not trade deficits.

I’m going to to the board a favor and let the rest of your remarks pass without comment.

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Posted by JPS1 on Sunday, October 20, 2019 11:07 AM
According to the AAR, total traffic was down 7 percent for the week ended October 12th.  However, YTD, traffic was down 4.1 percent.  The YTD decline does not strike me as a recession. 
 
Most knowledgeable analysts don’t react on one-week numbers.  Or one month for that matter.  They prefer to look at a minimum of twelve-month numbers to capture the seasonal adjustments.
 
Freight traffic has been one of the indicators economists use to predict a recession.  But it is not the only one. 
 
As a recent column in the Baltimore Sun point out, economists are lousy when it comes to predicting recessions or anything else for that matter.
 
As one person noted, economists have predicted 12 of the last 10 recessions.  I don’t remember the numbers or the person, but you get the idea. 
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Posted by JPS1 on Sunday, October 20, 2019 11:13 AM

jeffhergert
 In one location on a certain railroad local management had been working with a couple of cereal manufacturers to load containers there.  Volume was said to have been 20000 to 30000 containers per year.   The marketing department pulled the plug on this and, in effect, told the local managment to mind their own business.  This from a company that has on their employee website a link to let them know of any business that the railroad could pursue. 

Someone the other day said they've passed up over $100 million worth of business.  Because it was business in $5 to $10 million increments.  I think if they had a corporate softball team (maybe they do) they would probably only count the home runs.  Jeff 

Unless one is a marketing executive or is part of the marketing/sales negotiating team, how would h/she know what transpired between marketing and a customer?

Sometimes marketing walks away from a seemingly good deal because scratching below the surface showed that it was not very good.  

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Posted by Uncle_Bob on Sunday, October 20, 2019 12:43 PM

Psychot

 

 
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Let's just compare the two platforms of the parties based on their candidate's that are running out there shall we. On the donkey side of things we have the open borders massive increases in taxes regulations gun grabbing jam everything down your throat and your going to like it or else along with paying for crimes that not one of us was alive for whenever they occurred in reperatations to certain groups of people. 

 

On the other side of the fence. Someone that's fighting to get American jobs back cutting regulations so our businesses can compete in the global market is taking on the toughest issues like border security unfair Trade practices of nations oh BTW has gotten Apple computer to produce their new Macintosh in the USA. He also in the last 3 years has by cutting regulations created more jobs than there are unemployed lowest minority rates in history lowest rates for women in history highest real wage growth since 92. Yet all we here on the media is he's done a terrible job. Just think about that. Which way would you vote if the media was covering him the way they covered the last president before him. You know the one that could do nothing wrong. 

 

 

 

The foregoing is a nearly perfect encapsulation of the worldview of the 40% of our country that’s going to vote for Trump come hell or high water. Unfortunately, virtually none of it is true.

 

Yeah, none of it is true.  Like the unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics being at an all-time low.  That's clearly untrue because a Donkey sycophant says it's untrue.  Let me guess -- you're Don Lemon. 

I was lukewarm at best towards Trump, and stunned that he beat the anointed Ms. Inevitability, but he has actually kept some campaign promises while being undermined by the execrable Paul Ryan on others.  

There's no way in hell that I'll vote for any candidate of a party that supports taking away rights that are specifically enumerated in the Constitution.  But I get it:  "ORANGE MAN BAD!  DEPLORABLES DUMB!  THEM BAD PEOPLE, MUST BE PUNISHED!"  And it doesn't matter that Trump is actually doing what the Dims, er Dems always said they wanted: tariffs everywhere, getting out of the Middle East (as opposed to fomenting unrest and using drones to assassinate people), adjusting regulations so minorities can start climbing out of poverty, and others.  Predictably, this is met with calls for continued military involvement in the Middle East, cries of "racism," and agitprop from most media outlets about what an idiot Trump is and how stupid and uncouth his supporters (or anyone willing to hear him out) must be.

By the way, thanks to your side for selling uranium to the now-satanic (as of November 9, 2016) Russians and for sending billions of dollars to the truly  stable geniuses who run Iran over the protests of the supposedly stupid Trumpists (and other critics).  Just those two fiascos should make an objective person ask who are the real morons whose malfeasance will harm America.  

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Posted by Uncle_Bob on Sunday, October 20, 2019 12:51 PM

Psychot

 

 
Shadow the Cats owner

 

 
charlie hebdo

Your blatant and long  political posts do not belong on here. 

 

 

 

 

Why because I don't take everything the Media feeds us like a Sheep like the want us to.  I refuse to believe what they are feeding us.  Anyone think they are telling us the truth after the crap ABC did with their Syria report trying to pass off a gun range free fire event from Kentucky as an attack.  Just watch them they all parrot the same talking points are trying to push the same candidate down our throats refuse to allow anyone that has a different viewpoint on their shows.  

 

Yes I am a stauch conservative and get a lot of heat for it even from my own family.  However I can tell the difference between a Media that kisses the rear end of one party and does nothing but tries to destroy the other.  Sorry but I will continue to call out bias as I see it in all forms of the media at that inculdes here.

 

Now to get this thread back on topic the reason why freight is slumping is 2 fold.  First the Railroads driving off smaller shippers via PSR aka saying sorry unless your willing to do 100 million a year in revenue with us we do not want your business anymore along with cutting IM service lanes and that left more lanes for trucks to cover.  2nd the trade war and the continuing transfer of coal energy to gas power in the energy sectors.  Why keep hauling coal over 1000 miles when you can have it delivered to the plant in a pipeline right to your burners.  On the Trade war look for a major breakthrough in the winter.  Why am I say then simple China can not make it thru the winter with their current supplies of food stocked up.  They have way to many people to feed and not enough stored up to do it.  These figures are coming from friends inside China proper.  They lost 60% of their soybeans 50% of their rice 70% of their wheat to the Army worm.  Now on the Meat side they lost 60% of their entire pork population and 90% of the breeding sows.  Then on the Poultry side they lost 50% of all their chickens.  They are facing a severe food shortage this winter and they already buy 50% of all the exported crops worldwide.  They are bent over the barrel and Xi is going to either have to give in or from what I have heard he is going to be faced with open revolt by the people that are already seeing their food being rationed. 

 

 

 

You (and our leadership) vastly underestimate the ability of a dictatorship and police state to suppress dissent. Xi learned from Gorby’s mistakes, and he’s not going to repeat them. Moreover, the Chinese know full well that all they have to do is wait Trump out until the U.S. economy really starts to feel the pain of the trade war—or 2024, whichever comes first. So if you’re waiting for open revolt in China to change the equation, get comfortable.

I suppose it’s possible that China and the U.S. will reach some sort of trade agreement, but I can guarantee it won’t deal with intellectual property theft or state-owned industries in any substantive fashion. Those are the core issues that need to be resolved, not trade deficits.

I’m going to to the board a favor and let the rest of your remarks pass without comment.

 

Yeah, and Xi is able to suppress dissent using social media, personal opinion scores, limits on what can be searched online, and other neat things that are being done in cooperation with Google, Amazon and Facebook.  While we should all be afraid of what this means for us, most people are unaware of it, and some (presumably including you) actively support it.  

As for railroads:

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2019/10/18/activist-investor-who-brought-change-to-csx-sells.html?fbclid=IwAR2_8alIMTjwSvwy1SX4I_Q5y9Q4f7iZvo49vcGOxiiYhnrx3piw8cGjAg0

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Posted by Psychot on Monday, October 21, 2019 2:14 AM

Uncle_Bob

 

 
Psychot

 

 
Shadow the Cats owner

Let's just compare the two platforms of the parties based on their candidate's that are running out there shall we. On the donkey side of things we have the open borders massive increases in taxes regulations gun grabbing jam everything down your throat and your going to like it or else along with paying for crimes that not one of us was alive for whenever they occurred in reperatations to certain groups of people. 

 

On the other side of the fence. Someone that's fighting to get American jobs back cutting regulations so our businesses can compete in the global market is taking on the toughest issues like border security unfair Trade practices of nations oh BTW has gotten Apple computer to produce their new Macintosh in the USA. He also in the last 3 years has by cutting regulations created more jobs than there are unemployed lowest minority rates in history lowest rates for women in history highest real wage growth since 92. Yet all we here on the media is he's done a terrible job. Just think about that. Which way would you vote if the media was covering him the way they covered the last president before him. You know the one that could do nothing wrong. 

 

 

 

The foregoing is a nearly perfect encapsulation of the worldview of the 40% of our country that’s going to vote for Trump come hell or high water. Unfortunately, virtually none of it is true.

 

 

 

Yeah, none of it is true.  Like the unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanics being at an all-time low.  That's clearly untrue because a Donkey sycophant says it's untrue.  Let me guess -- you're Don Lemon. 

 

I was lukewarm at best towards Trump, and stunned that he beat the anointed Ms. Inevitability, but he has actually kept some campaign promises while being undermined by the execrable Paul Ryan on others.  

There's no way in hell that I'll vote for any candidate of a party that supports taking away rights that are specifically enumerated in the Constitution.  But I get it:  "ORANGE MAN BAD!  DEPLORABLES DUMB!  THEM BAD PEOPLE, MUST BE PUNISHED!"  And it doesn't matter that Trump is actually doing what the Dims, er Dems always said they wanted: tariffs everywhere, getting out of the Middle East (as opposed to fomenting unrest and using drones to assassinate people), adjusting regulations so minorities can start climbing out of poverty, and others.  Predictably, this is met with calls for continued military involvement in the Middle East, cries of "racism," and agitprop from most media outlets about what an idiot Trump is and how stupid and uncouth his supporters (or anyone willing to hear him out) must be.

By the way, thanks to your side for selling uranium to the now-satanic (as of November 9, 2016) Russians and for sending billions of dollars to the truly  stable geniuses who run Iran over the protests of the supposedly stupid Trumpists (and other critics).  Just those two fiascos should make an objective person ask who are the real morons whose malfeasance will harm America.  

 

My apologies to everyone, but this is an ad hominem attack on me, and I’m not going to let it go...

First of all, lol@ “my side.” Until Trump came along, I had never/never voted for a Democrat for president. Believe it or not, some of us who are right-leaning cannot stomach the likes of Donald Trump, especially since his policies and actions go against pretty much everything real conservatives always stood for. How “conservative” is it to run a trillion-dollar deficit in a time of economic prosperity? How “conservative” is it to slap arbitrary tariffs on steel and aluminum on specious national security grounds? How “conservative” is it to cozy up to the likes of Putin, Kim, and Erdogan while trashing or abandoning our true allies? How “conservative” is it to act like a 10-year old on Twitter? I could go on and on...

I do agree with you that Trump is doing things on trade and foreign policy that most democrats would probably support under other circumstances — but that’s just another example of the hypocrisy on both sides of the political spectrum. The people I want to hear from are the so-called “conservatives” who don’t utter a peep about any of it. It proves what some of us knew all along: it’s not about principle, it’s about political tribalism.

Finally, I would point out that your post is a prime example of the extent to which political discourse in our country has seemingly become irreparably toxic. Due to the mere fact that I disagreed with you and Trump, you immediately felt the need to label me a “donkey syncophant” and imply that I’m a rabidly anti-Trump CNN commentator. There are still a lot of centrists and moderates like me, both left and right-leaning, and many of us are sick and tired of the mouth-breathers on both sides of the spectrum setting the agenda.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, October 21, 2019 3:42 PM

Too much purely political posting on both sides, much of it non-factual,  unrelated to railroads and toxic. 

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, October 21, 2019 5:25 PM

charlie hebdo

Too much purely political posting on both sides, much of it non-factual,  unrelated to railroads and toxic. 

Yes

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Posted by Psychot on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 3:11 AM

I offer my profoundest apologies to the denizens of this board. I will avoid politics in the future.

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Posted by Psychot on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 3:21 AM

Anyhoo, back to the topic at hand. I think Matt Rose was absolutely correct that the trend toward driving off smaller-margin business that seems to accompany PSR will get the railroads re-regulated at some point.

Railroads were given generous land grants in exchange for serving as common carriers, and as Rose said, the Staggers act carried a presumption that railroads would be given pricing flexibility in exchange for "carrying everything." The PSR crowd seems to have lost sight of this, and it's going to cost them if they continue down that road.

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 7:07 AM

Psychot
Anyhoo, back to the topic at hand. I think Matt Rose was absolutely correct that the trend toward driving off smaller-margin business that seems to accompany PSR will get the railroads re-regulated at some point.

As I've opined, and others have also said, there is little new operationally in PSR.  The railroads may not have embraced some of the practices as they could have, but it's not new.

The practice of driving off the lower profit business is definitely a characteristic of PSR.  Many feel the goal is simply to move the now increased profits to the bottom line where the "activist" investors can harvest them.

Once EHH left the railroads he ran, many of the practices have been reversed.  And the railroads that are embracing PSR on their own are doing so cautiously at best.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 7:14 AM

Psychot

 

Railroads were given generous land grants in exchange for serving as common carriers,...

 

No they weren't.  They were given land grants in exchange for risking their capital to build into undeveloped territory ahead of the actual shipping demand that would come with settlement.  Without the land grants, railroads would have avoided the risk of investment by waiting until new territory was settled and a shipping market had developed before building into the new territory.  And if railroads waited for the shipping market, it would not develop because settlers would not come in and settle without the help of rail transportation.  Since land had real value, and the government owned a lot of land, they could use the land as payment of an incentive to encouage investment that would not have occurred otherwise.

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Posted by diningcar on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 8:30 AM

More than 92% of railroad mileage in the United States was built entirely by private enterprise - without benefit of land grants.

 

Most railroads receiving land grants were required by law to haul government freight and personel at reduced rates averaging 50%. Mail was hauled at a 20% reduction.

When the reduced rate requiements were finally repealed by Congress in 1945, a Congressional Committee reported:

"It is probable that the railroads have contributed over $900 million in payment of the lands which were transferred to them ..... ICC Commissioner J. B. Eastman estimated the value of the lands at the time they were granted was not more than $126 million."

Land grants to railroads were indeed a good deal for the United States.

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Posted by Deggesty on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 10:05 AM

diningcar

More than 92% of railroad mileage in the United States was built entirely by private enterprise - without benefit of land grants.

 

Most railroads receiving land grants were required by law to haul government freight and personel at reduced rates averaging 50%. Mail was hauled at a 20% reduction.

When the reduced rate requiements were finally repealed by Congress in 1945, a Congressional Committee reported:

"It is probable that the railroads have contributed over $900 million in payment of the lands which were transferred to them ..... ICC Commissioner J. B. Eastman estimated the value of the lands at the time they were granted was not more than $126 million."

Land grants to railroads were indeed a good deal for the United States.

 

Thank you, diningcar. 

During WW II, did all the roads give discounts for transporting military personnel? I wonder if  the government paid for all the miles covered by a troop train carrying recruits/draftees to a boot camp and was turned away from several because they were full before it arrived at one that could take the men (see Pullman Conductor William Moedinger's account of this on pages 44-45 of the February 1970 issue of Trains--"...42 days on a Navy main before the train reached a boot camp that could accommodate the men.")

Johnny

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 10:28 AM

Psychot

I offer my profoundest apologies to the denizens of this board. I will avoid politics in the future.

 

Sometimes it is hard to avoid. I do notice that the other political posters have not acknowledged anything, though there appears to be a pause at this time.

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 11:32 AM

charlie hebdo
Sometimes it is hard to avoid.

Indeed.  And some people so hate [insert politician/political party here] that they'll take the bait every time.

The key is to avoid making it personal - such as not naming names.  "The current administration" or "a past administration" is about as deep as one really wants to get.  And usually, that's deep enough to make a point.

Besides, the "rules of the road" for the forums specifically state no politics or religion...  For good reason.

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Posted by diningcar on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 12:09 PM

Jonny, 

WW II was the 'trigger' which prompted the 1945 legislation when it became so apparent what the railroads had done in the War Effort.

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Posted by Psychot on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 5:29 PM

Euclid and diningcar, thanks for educating me on land grants. I had no idea about any of that. I guess what I said comes under the category of "conventional wisdom" that's completely untrue.

Do you all agree, though, that transportation regulators expect railroads to function as common carriers in the wake of the Staggers act?

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Posted by Juniata Man on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 7:45 PM

Railroad common carrier obligation pre-dates Staggers. The Interstate Commerce Act of 1887 references common carrier obligation.  Staggers didn't eliminate the common carrier obligation but; neither did it really seek to define it.  

Generally speaking; railroads are required to provide service upon reasonable request and that is, in effect, their common carrier obligation.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 8:51 PM

Psychot

Euclid and diningcar, thanks for educating me on land grants. I had no idea about any of that. I guess what I said comes under the category of "conventional wisdom" that's completely untrue.

Do you all agree, though, that transportation regulators expect railroads to function as common carriers in the wake of the Staggers act?

 

Without some citations,  I would be hesitant to conclude that land grants and government guaranteed bonds were of so little importance.  

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, October 22, 2019 9:01 PM

charlie hebdo
 
Psychot

Euclid and diningcar, thanks for educating me on land grants. I had no idea about any of that. I guess what I said comes under the category of "conventional wisdom" that's completely untrue.

Do you all agree, though, that transportation regulators expect railroads to function as common carriers in the wake of the Staggers act?

 

 

 

Without some citations,  I would be hesitant to conclude that land grants and government guaranteed bonds were of so little importance.  

 

Who is suggesting they were of little importance?  Why would one consider them to be of little importance?

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 11:06 AM

Diningcar certainly implied that, with his number 92%.  Or does it only count if a person says it directly? 

In any case,  show citations and an analysis of the data. I wonder what percentage of western mainlines were land grants?  I think a lot more than 8%.

Additionally,  some eastern lines were land grants by states,  such as the IC.

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 12:17 PM

Euclid
 
charlie hebdo
 

Who is suggesting they were of little importance?  Why would one consider them to be of little importance?

For the love of God, if you can't learn to appreciate rhetoric, at least learn to read carefully!

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 1:11 PM

Overmod
 
Euclid
 
charlie hebdo
 

Who is suggesting they were of little importance?  Why would one consider them to be of little importance?

 

For the love of God, if you can't learn to appreciate rhetoric, at least learn to read carefully!

 

YesLaugh

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 1:23 PM

Murphy Siding

 

 
Overmod
 
Euclid
 
charlie hebdo
 

Who is suggesting they were of little importance?  Why would one consider them to be of little importance?

 

For the love of God, if you can't learn to appreciate rhetoric, at least learn to read carefully!

 

 

 

YesLaugh

 

 

+1. These syntactical merry-go-rounds are unproductive at best,  inane at worst. 

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Posted by Euclid on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 1:23 PM

Overmod

 

 

 
Euclid
 
charlie hebdo
 

Who is suggesting they were of little importance?  Why would one consider them to be of little importance?

 

For the love of God, if you can't learn to appreciate rhetoric, at least learn to read carefully!

 

Do you have an anger problem?

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