Everything moves to online. What's there to worry about? The government and the industry know what they're doing with technology!
CIA hacked: https://www.wired.com/2015/10/hacker-who-broke-into-cia-director-john-brennan-email-tells-how-he-did-it/
NSA hacked: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602201/security-experts-agree-the-nsa-was-hacked/
Federal Reserve hacked: https://www.infowars.com/federal-reserve-hacked/
Microsoft hacked: https://www.securitynewspaper.com/2019/04/15/microsoft-was-hacked-outlook-and-employees-accounts-have-been-hacked/
Apple iCloud hacked: https://www.zdnet.com/article/icloud-accounts-breach-gets-bigger-here-is-what-we-know/
The list goes on and on. Yet we rush headlong into insecure control systems.
Some people worry about a stock market crash.
I worry about a technology crash.
York1 John
daveklepperBut what will we do if our worlds move to "cashless economy" where everything is done by computer banking and internet payment?
Closer than you think: legislation was being discussed in Pennsylvania last week to preclude a premium being charged for 'cash' payment.
Admittedly this involves Web-based transactions, where good service and cash payment may be functionally difficult to assure simultaneously (many business models rely upon payment in full via a confirmed card payment before something like a food order or expensive tchotchkes will be sent to a customer) and it is difficult to trot out the hoary old 'but it's legal tender!' argument in such cases.
But just as with self-serve fuel stations, you can clearly see the camel's nose poking a very good way into the tent, and I expect it to become much worse as we go to a distributed 'cloud' economy where handling and exchanging dirty cash becomes a 'needless' use of time and effort and an actionable exposure to unsafe working conditions, etc.
The likely alternative is to establish an analogue of the Jitterbug phone service, which provides a free Government-sanctioned 'credit card' secured by the minds that helped give the world Stuxnet. To this and from this would then flow all the 'cash' transactions previously handled by dirty money, with inherent control over things like the large cash transfers that required RFID or magnetic inductive stripes in the bills and the large 'underground' economy that sequential administrations would so, so love to stamp out.
Why much of that hasn't happened already, I really don't know -- probably that we still have Obama-grade IT programming in so much of the Government. It would be nice if it would stay that way; current trends in IT development indicate it well might stay that way; but I have little faith in the assurance of incompetence.
Convicted one: I am not using credit cards and may not in the future. But what will we do if our worlds move to "cashless economy" where everything is done by computer banking and internet payment? I'm worried, frankly.
So much humor in this thread.
CMStPnPA large chunk of the Federal Government is moving its IT systems to the Amazon Government Cloud over the next few years. Productivity improvements from that alone is going to be worth a few 100 billion.
Perhaps you can tell me exactly where this amount of actual savings will come out of migration of current systems to the cloud?
... Then throw in some major Corporations doing the same, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence and you have a Skynet sized or larger Technological leap forwards.
Problem is that "the cloud" has been touted as the next big IT thing since the late '90s. I have only somewhat less belief in this as a cyberspace platform than I did in Larry Ellison's continued if uniformly worthless attempts to get me to buy into SaaS all those years Oracle and its cognates were peddling the idea. Which is not to say distributed resources and distributed data aren't a good idea... just that they aren't any real good to anyone that doesn't have the right kinds of AI/ES running together just to keep it controlled, configured, and genetically evolving correctly. No one I know is currently doing that publically, or selling the algorithmic support to instantiate it.
It's going to produce fairly large returns in GDP growth and efficiency.
If those returns show up functionally as anyone's benefit other than the 'owning classes' I'll be astounded. I'm sure there will be more broker's
Amazon Alexa is going to have a DB at her fingertips probably as large as you see on Star Trek if not larger. Imagine for example a nationwide DB with voice activated interface that can help you with and submit your taxes for you.[/quote]
Not much different from Vannevar Bush's Memex, except now with a cheap clone of Dragon running as an overlay like a kind of vocal PTC. All the joys of SEO now being used to "optimize" access to you by secret protocols. Hell, not *quite* 75 years late, but that's progress for you.
With back-end hacks that let the Government, the Chinese, and probably various insurers and credit providers know exactly what jots and tittles of income can be gleaned from you, and of course targeted advertising and 'offers' to separate you from as much of the rest as possible.
No more CPA fees or potentially wait times for that.
I know what we'll call it! It's the TurboTrain of tax providers ... we'll call it TurboTax! And make millions! No CPA for filing your own... wait? what? It's been done? And not with thousands of distributed processors in the cloud running genetic algorithms? Rats!
Now imagine that cloud is not only the U.S. Government but also several large Economic block European Governments as well on a large and growing worldwide cloud type system where they are able to interface with like systems with ease on a common and standardized computer platform....
Imagine a hobnailed boot stomping a human hand on a mouse ... forever.
But seriously, we've had effective systems harmonization since at least the mid-1990s, and a likelier model for interfacing systems involves considerable 'unhackable' AI that is as complex, and in many ways as powerful, as the human immune system. You can readily see where the problems with pervasive cloud instantiations are, particularly when run by governments, and how little chance the average person's little Alexa has against organized hacking ... often by governments, although of course they have plausible denial.
Aside from this is the problem of assuring 'identity' of your personal AI system and attached devices in a cloud environment. More than a little reminiscent of the Biblical reason why we shouldn't contact the dead ... you may get a reply, but is it from what you thought you were contacting? Having spent considerable time and effort on the question of assuring local control of safety-critical equipment, the situation was difficult enough managing PANs or extended home-control networks. It's fun to buzz about 'putting it all in the cloud' (and not paying now for the hardware and software) and 'running it from your phone' -- thing is, there's nothing particularly new about connected environments that do the things you're talking about, and neither the consumer markets nor the cloud providers have particularly delivered on the promise these last 40 years or so.
BaltACD....$50B here, $100B there and pretty soon you are talking real money.
If you like that page, consider our national debt (now over 22 trillion, DOUBLE what you will see):http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/usdebt.html
Yikes.
Convicted One Personally, I believe that if the new law forces some of the deadbeats out of the railroad industry, it will be a good thing. and on that tangent: https://www.hoodrivernews.com/news/county-prepares-to-seize-mt-hood-railroad-property/article_c9ace314-bfaf-11e9-ae7e-6791e518b1d9.html
Personally, I believe that if the new law forces some of the deadbeats out of the railroad industry, it will be a good thing.
and on that tangent: https://www.hoodrivernews.com/news/county-prepares-to-seize-mt-hood-railroad-property/article_c9ace314-bfaf-11e9-ae7e-6791e518b1d9.html
CMStPnP charlie hebdo Our 'boom' was just a short-term sugar fix, fed by massive deficit-spending, aka, the tax cut. Maybe but not for long........ A large chunk of the Federal Government is moving it's IT systems to the Amazon Government Cloud over the next few years. Productivity improvements from that alone is going to be worth a few 100 billion. Then throw in some major Corporations doing the same, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence and you have a Skynet sized or larger Technological leap forwards. It's going to produce fairly large returns in GDP growth and efficiency. Amazon Alexa is going to have a DB at her fingertips probably as large as you see on Star Trek if not larger. Imagine for example a nationwide DB with voice activated interface that can help you with and submit your taxes for you. No more CPA fees or potentially wait times for that. Think of the efficiencies of that alone. Now imagine that cloud is not only the U.S. Government but also several large Economic block European Governments as well on a large and growing worldwide cloud type system where they are able to interface with like systems with ease on a common and standardized computer platform.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0av2mvYq5I If you think Jeff Bezos is rich now, he hasn't even scratched the surface yet of his future income. Parts of CIA and DoD are already there, Treasury including the IRS is moving there now... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEc6kVAXSs8
charlie hebdo Our 'boom' was just a short-term sugar fix, fed by massive deficit-spending, aka, the tax cut.
Maybe but not for long........
A large chunk of the Federal Government is moving it's IT systems to the Amazon Government Cloud over the next few years. Productivity improvements from that alone is going to be worth a few 100 billion. Then throw in some major Corporations doing the same, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence and you have a Skynet sized or larger Technological leap forwards. It's going to produce fairly large returns in GDP growth and efficiency.
Amazon Alexa is going to have a DB at her fingertips probably as large as you see on Star Trek if not larger. Imagine for example a nationwide DB with voice activated interface that can help you with and submit your taxes for you. No more CPA fees or potentially wait times for that. Think of the efficiencies of that alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0av2mvYq5I
If you think Jeff Bezos is rich now, he hasn't even scratched the surface yet of his future income. Parts of CIA and DoD are already there, Treasury including the IRS is moving there now...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEc6kVAXSs8
Just think of The Cloud being hacked or held hostage!
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
CMStPnP Think of the efficiencies of that alone.
Sounds like a whole new world order just around the corner.
charlie hebdoOur 'boom' was just a short-term sugar fix, fed by massive deficit-spending, aka, the tax cut.
Our 'boom' was just a short-term sugar fix, fed by massive deficit-spending, aka, the tax cut.
EuclidOr we could just grow the economy and get something done.
What part does the rebuilding process after natural disasters play in the overall GDP of the country - $50B here, $100B there and pretty soon you are talking real money.
Is our present economic 'boom' been dependent on the rebuild process after natural disasters - we have a number of disasters each year.
Or we could just grow the economy and get something done.
Steve SweeneyJust a guess, but I think it has to do with updating systems to make them more secure, efficient, and more traceable than before; leveling the playing field (my car insurer can convert my paper check to ACH debit and get same-day cash, but I cannot, always — mobile phones have changed this radically); and it's a back door increase to the monetary supply.
It was explained as a way to modernize the system to keep up with changing technology of the marketplace which is increasingly demanding a real time payment processing system. Interestingly they were asked about acceptance of Crypto Currencies by the U.S. Banking System and they pretty much said in so many words those currencies were still too immature and unstable at this time to be brought into the banking system yet.
One thing in this forum topic that's only been mentioned in passing ...
There are scams out there that target older people. They will be contacted and promised a settlement of some kind.
They will be sent a check, told to deposit it in their account, and then write a small check back to the sender to pay a service fee.
After several days, the old person finds out the original settlement check was worthless, and they are out of the money they sent as the fee.
It won't stop the way this has evolved. The scammers don't want a check, they want a money order or a money card of some kind.
Steve SweeneyThe last one is a wild guess, but the faster you can turn money, the faster that money can move somewhere else. The effects will be marginal, but I think equivalent to Federal Reserve printing a new quantity of money and pushing it into the system.
That is in fact far from a wild guess, it is a significant consideration in Keynesian economics under the term 'velocity of money'. And yes, the faster (and more positive) the 'changing of hands' is, the more is the effect of a given number of dollars on both the local and wider economy.
An interesting way to 'gauge' the effect of the multiplier is to consider one dollar as it changes hands over the course of a year. Each successive 'receiver' considers this as income (and duly figures it as part of their tax bill). At the end of the taxable year the effect will be that 'one dollar' represents several, if not many, dollars of total income, and the Government's tax revenue may well exceed "$1" in aggregate dollars.
Note that this should have less effect on inflation than explicitly increasing the currency in circulation without increasing hard reserves. Much of the previous difficulty with decreasing effective velocity via hoarding/saving has been "addressed" with vanishingly small interest rates at savings banks (which had the effect of generating 'new dollars' in the same way that stock appreciation does, the latter effective monetization being a principal factor in the Great Depression) -- it would have been nice to see the banks provide something in return for their near-free source of loan capital, but when did that ever matter to a banker's heart?
Where the fun comes in is when a considerable amount of the velocity either winds up being transferred to other nations (as in the ongoing case of Chinese 'trade deficits') or sent there as funds (all those Mexicans sending money home). I'm tempted to note that the faster you pump through a system with holes in it, the faster you lose 'working fluid' -- and this brings us back to methods that increase the apparent money supply, and the dangers of doing this in some of the 'friction-free economy' ways we so loved in the '90s.
zardoz CMStPnP ....the Federal Reserve announced it was moving to a real time payment system nationwide.... Could this have something to do with the insane national debt? For those interested in national debt figures, I recommend the debt clock: https://www.usdebtclock.org/
CMStPnP ....the Federal Reserve announced it was moving to a real time payment system nationwide....
Could this have something to do with the insane national debt?
For those interested in national debt figures, I recommend the debt clock:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Just a guess, but I think it has to do with updating systems to make them more secure, efficient, and more traceable than before; leveling the playing field (my car insurer can convert my paper check to ACH debit and get same-day cash, but I cannot, always — mobile phones have changed this radically); and it's a back door increase to the monetary supply.
The last one is a wild guess, but the faster you can turn money, the faster that money can move somewhere else. The effects will be marginal, but I think equivalent to Federal Reserve printing a new quantity of money and pushing it into the system.
Steve SweeneyDigital Editor, Hobby
Overmod Banks will still happily honor "bad" checks and charge fees for the privilege; it will just happen faster.
I do printing (chiefly raffle tickets) as a sideline - the payment is usually a check.
When I cash them at my bank, each is processed separately, including being read by some sort of scanner. In the case of checks written on my bank, I imagine that they are ensuring that the check writer can cover the check with their existing balance. It's been this way for a while now. I don't know about other banks.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Overmod Backshop Also, credit cards aren't bad. Credit cards can be very bad indeed when peddled to the same people who were targeted for subpar mortgages a couple of decades ago.
Backshop Also, credit cards aren't bad.
Credit cards can be very bad indeed when peddled to the same people who were targeted for subpar mortgages a couple of decades ago.
Any 'tool' can be very damaging in the hands of those who don't know how to use the tool. Credit and credit cards are nothing more than financial tools.
BackshopAlso, credit cards aren't bad.
When there is a high yearly fee for the card, in addition to what can now be over 30%APR, when interest is calculated on a monthly-balance basis regardless of payment, and when there are fees for early payment and a variety of card 'features', you have something that in my opinion should not be allowed to be sold without much better fair disclosure than the usual fine print. If at all. Civilized societies had usury laws to prevent this sort of thing, and took action against 'loan sharking' -- these are little different.
While I understand people should be 'free' to run themselves into the poorhouse or bankruptcy court with money-store and paycheck-advance places... there doesn't have to be one on every street corner like the 21st-Century version of gin mills.
Convicted OneDo you think this new policy will cut significantly into revenues that banks collect from overdraft protection fees?
Perhaps regrettably, I do not. I read this as being an internal clearinghouse provision that makes assured transaction completion quicker and more determinate. Banks will still happily honor "bad" checks and charge fees for the privilege; it will just happen faster.
More significant, I think, might be the effect on bank customers like me that reject overdraft protection: it becomes likely that a standardized NSF determination on a submitted check could be quickly and easily provided at a point-of-sale, without going through the rigmarole of prequal that many customers find insulting, particularly if they are in groups 'traditionally discriminated against.'
My guess is that the Fed's action is of more interest to banks that want to avoid consequences of accepting bad checks than to banks cutting the lucrative profit center of overdraft and service fees. On the other hand, the first local bank that provides online 'check checking' through a secure app is likely to sway my business...
Overmod Why are you people gibbling about invoices when the issue is bank clearance of deposits, a completely different thing? Invoices are the way they are, in part, because it's understood that you need factors of production in order to produce (and be paid) and that until you produce (and have been paid) you get nothing that can be used to pay. There's usually a small incentive to pay early, if you can: that's the 2/10 or 2% net 10. Then there's the expected payment time, net 30 or one average month.
Why are you people gibbling about invoices when the issue is bank clearance of deposits, a completely different thing?
Invoices are the way they are, in part, because it's understood that you need factors of production in order to produce (and be paid) and that until you produce (and have been paid) you get nothing that can be used to pay. There's usually a small incentive to pay early, if you can: that's the 2/10 or 2% net 10. Then there's the expected payment time, net 30 or one average month.
The answer to your rhetorical question is not one that is printable.
Terms such as 2/10 N 30 were prevalent back in the day when I was a buyer for a large regional retailer before returning for grad school. If a vendor (supplier) did not offer it, we were expected by our top management to take it anyway, since 2% meant a lot in an industry with small margins.
OvermodAll that the Fed is doing is ensuring that 'adequate funds' exist for a check to clear before the check is processed for deposit.
Do you think this new policy will cut significantly into revenues that banks collect from overdraft protection fees?
Semper Vaporo Same reason the ad says people run out of money and need their paycheck 2 days earlier.
Same reason the ad says people run out of money and need their paycheck 2 days earlier.
Why are we discussing invoices when the issue is bank clearance of deposits, a completely different thing?
All that the Fed is doing is ensuring that 'adequate funds' exist for a check to clear before the check is processed for deposit. That should have been standard practice years ago, once the electronic deposit methods became pervasive. I see this as more or less an unbounded positive:
1) No more 'bank holds' of up to 5 days for large or out-of-state checks, while the bank profits from the float;
2) No more of those scams where the perp sends a large check, asks for some of it to be returned, then disappears when the check is returned NG after internal review;
3) Very limited ability for most kinds of 'check kiting' -- that's a problem for shoestringers who are used to using this as a means of cash management, but let's face it: issuing checks without adequate funds to cover is a crime, and has been for some time.
My wife, for a while, had issues with very large paydays coming while "income" from the work had not yet been received. She did not mind using the bank's overdraft fees as a necessary cost of business when necessary. (You need to read the terms and conditions of many offers of business lines-of-credit carefully if you think those substitute in this sort of situation) She learned to have adequate cash reserves, although it is somewhat difficult to get any reasonable opportunity income out of liquid cash these days.
Some organizations don't like having to pay. New York Hospital was one. You were not a preferred vendor unless you were willing to quote terms 'net 180'. This rather unsurprisingly resulted in relatively high expense when you went to get bids on, say, additional RAM during the 'crisis' in the late 1980s, or large-capacity hard drives. Suppliers will determine a price that makes them an expected profit given the lag expected in payment, or will need to be willing to take less profit in return for an increased volume of or access to business by a large organization. Volkswagen became notorious for this, even worse than Walmart.
GrampWholeheartedly agree that credit amounts to servitude. At the same time, it fosters commerce. Then there are companies like Walmart. Quote terms to your heart’s desire. They’ll still pay in 90 days.
Then there are companies like Walmart. Quote terms to your heart’s desire. They’ll still pay in 90 days.
Credit amounts to servitude ONLY if you permit it to. The choice is yours. I view my routine use of credit as using OPM for 30 days or so FREE (at least to me) as I pay my statements in full.
Well, I suppose that one nice thing about this, if a railroad gets a nice big settlement check (such as an insurance reimbursement), there will no longer be a bank hold on the lions share of the deposit waiting for the check to clear.
Wholeheartedly agree that credit amounts to servitude. At the same time, it fosters commerce.
jeffhergertOn the other side of the railroad cash flow coin. We used to be able to have a tank truck refuel engines that were low at the away from home terminal. The vendor there will no longer supply us fuel, the company got behind in payments to him. Which to me seems unusual. Not because it's a multi-milliondollar company, but because of what other vendors have said. That the first payment is slow in coming, but after that payments for supplies or services are more regular. Jeff
There will be a fixed procedure for processing the invoices, which takes time to pass through the system for the necessary approvals. All it takes is one hopelessly inefficient clerk, or sickness to a key person further up the chain, and things fall behind. The invoice on the bottom of the "pile" may stay there a while. With the below minimal staffing levels the railroads are aiming for, regrettably this is not surprising to me.
John
Juniata Man To answer CStP&P’s question; if a rail customer has established credit with a particular railroad, payment terms generally are 15 days from issuance of the invoice. In 40 years of dealing with railroads; I never once encountered one that offered a discount for early payment. Without credit terms; rail service will almost certainly be of a prepaid nature meaning nothing will happen till the railroad has received payment for the shipment you wish to move. Most railroads now will strongly encourage a new customer to set up an electronic means of payment. In the past 20 years with two different employers, I’ve not seen a check used to pay a rail freight bill. I doubt the banking changes proposed will have much impact on receivables owed to a railroad. It may impact railroad payables to their vendors but; I imagine railroads have already extracted very favorable payment terms from most of their vendors anyhow so; having a check clear overnight likely isn’t going to cause a railroad CFO to lose sleep.
To answer CStP&P’s question; if a rail customer has established credit with a particular railroad, payment terms generally are 15 days from issuance of the invoice. In 40 years of dealing with railroads; I never once encountered one that offered a discount for early payment.
Without credit terms; rail service will almost certainly be of a prepaid nature meaning nothing will happen till the railroad has received payment for the shipment you wish to move.
Most railroads now will strongly encourage a new customer to set up an electronic means of payment. In the past 20 years with two different employers, I’ve not seen a check used to pay a rail freight bill.
I doubt the banking changes proposed will have much impact on receivables owed to a railroad. It may impact railroad payables to their vendors but; I imagine railroads have already extracted very favorable payment terms from most of their vendors anyhow so; having a check clear overnight likely isn’t going to cause a railroad CFO to lose sleep.
OK thanks that clears it up for me.
rdamonTell him sure, but you want direct deposit and a raise for your troubles.
So for the record as someone that ran a business with direct deposit and Wells Fargo running the payroll. You actually pay the cash into payroll a week before payday or it is deducted from your account a week in advance. The folks that pay right on payday are doing their own payroll more than likely. Further, if any employee has child support YOU are responsible for paying it ontime via payroll deduction in the state of Texas. The guy that owes child support is only responsible for telling you about it and providing the details. If you make a mistake and calculate the child support incorrectly....lots of red tape and hassle.
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