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Economic downturn likely to impact CSX earnings

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Saturday, July 13, 2019 7:37 PM

Juniata Man
Now; back on topic; Mac, you mention CSX’s spending on signals and bridges increased. I am aware that with PTC implementation has come the need for some of the railroads to replace their legacy signal systems. I will not pretend to be an accountant having taken only the minimum hours required to obtain my degree years ago but; would CSX have included that cost as a capital improvement or categorized it as PTC related?

With the understanding that I am not privy to CSX accounting, I am 99.99% sure all carriers are capitalizing their PTC expenditures. They are capital investments after all. I suspect all railroads are breaking out PTC Capex for both practical and political reasons. If I were doing the accounting and PTC forced me to modify my existing signal system, I would put that in the PTC bucket.

The item I refered to seemed to cover all fixed plant Capex except track, PTC, and capacity enhancement. I did not study the footnotes.

Mac

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Posted by Juniata Man on Saturday, July 13, 2019 7:18 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
Juniata Man
If I may loosely borrow from John Lennon - “I’d like to thank you on behalf of the group and I hope we‘ve passed the audition.”

 

LOL, it was rude to ask but nice of you to be honest, if you were honest.   It's an informal board of discussion not a professional forum.     Also if your new to the TRAINS Discussion Forums, the interaction with other posters can work roughly like this video sometimes........so beware and have a thick skin sometimes.Big Smile

https://youtu.be/TwOGMNrFBiM

 

 

I’m a newby on this particular forum but, am very familiar with the forum associated with Newswire and the fact that interaction over there can sometimes leave one with bruises. (Insert winking emoticon here.)

I‘ll apologize for hijacking this thread but; would like to relate one story concerning a contentious exchange I once had over there with a gentleman who used the monicker “rail pundit”.

There was something familiar about the way this gentleman phrased his comments so, on a hunch, I sent an email to a longtime industry buddy - the late Larry Kaufman, asking him if he was “rail pundit”.  I shortly received a phone call from Larry admitting I had correctly guessed his identity and wondering how in the devil I’d managed that.  I told him he had a very unique style of writing that I had recognized in his forum response to me.  Larry said that was probably one of the better compliments a writer could receive and, despite the earlier contentious exchange, we remained friends until his death.

And yes; I was completely honest when I noted my background in that earlier response.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, July 13, 2019 6:38 PM

Juniata Man
If I may loosely borrow from John Lennon - “I’d like to thank you on behalf of the group and I hope we‘ve passed the audition.”

LOL, it was rude to ask but nice of you to be honest, if you were honest.   It's an informal board of discussion not a professional forum.     Also if your new to the TRAINS Discussion Forums, the interaction with other posters can work roughly like this video sometimes........so beware and have a thick skin sometimes.Big Smile

https://youtu.be/TwOGMNrFBiM

 

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Posted by Juniata Man on Saturday, July 13, 2019 6:23 PM

Paul_D_North_Jr

 

 
Juniata Man

 diningcar

Thank you,

 

This information assists participants at this site to spend our time with you, or not.

 

If I may loosely borrow from John Lennon - “I’d like to thank you on behalf of the group and I hope we‘ve passed the audition.”

 

"Upon this point a page of history is worth a volume of logic." - U.S. Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. 

 

 

Paul; when Lennon uttered this line in 1969 he was being facetious as was I in using it now. 

 

Now; back on topic; Mac, you mention CSX’s spending on signals and bridges increased.  I am aware that with PTC implementation has come the need for some of the railroads to replace their legacy signal systems.  

I will not pretend to be an accountant having taken only the minimum hours required to obtain my degree years ago but; would CSX have included that cost as a capital improvement or categorized it as PTC related?

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Saturday, July 13, 2019 5:42 PM

Paul,

All that you seek is in Annual Reports and 10Ks on CSX website.

From page 40 of 2018 AR, which gives years 2016, '17 and '18.

Track, very stable

Bridges & Signals, generally increasing

PTC 2018, $225 million, a $100 M decrease from year before, with 2019 expected to drop to 100 M

Big drop was locomotives from $409 M in '16 to 3M in 2018. No need to buy power if you are storing it.

Capacity investments are a line item.

STB regulates what track expenditures must be capitalized and what can be expensed, so carriers have relatively little leeway in what they expense vs. what they capitalize. Track accounting is a world of its own, and I can not explain what I do not know.

Mac

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Saturday, July 13, 2019 3:36 PM

Re JPS1's comments on CSX's capital expenditures and investment:

  • A lot of that in recent years is PTC-related - kind of like a 'pig in a python', it's a'one-of' and skews the results for its year(s) and a few afterwards. 
  • I'd want to know if essentially routine maintenance is being capitalized, and to what extent.  Often when a railroad brags about investing $X million in a state or year, reading closely discloses that a lot of that is for tie, rail, ballast and surfacing, and grade crossing replacement - not so much for added  tracks or other capacity improvements. 

- PDN. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Saturday, July 13, 2019 3:31 PM

Juniata Man

 diningcar

Thank you,

 

This information assists participants at this site to spend our time with you, or not.

 

If I may loosely borrow from John Lennon - “I’d like to thank you on behalf of the group and I hope we‘ve passed the audition.”

"Upon this point a page of history is worth a volume of logic." - U.S. Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by caldreamer on Friday, July 12, 2019 8:04 AM

Warren Buffett has a very good management team running BNSF and he lets them run the railroad.  Yes, Berksire Hathaway is sensative to Wall street, but as a subsidiarty, BNSF itself is not, since Bershire Hathaway wons all of the stock.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, July 11, 2019 11:03 PM

Juniata Man

 Not really a surprise if one has been following the weekly AAR volume numbers reported over on Newswire.

The mystery to me is that more Wall Street analysts haven’t picked up on the continuing erosion in freight volumes.  Generally speaking - freight doesn’t lie.

 

My point was exactly that.  Declining freight volume/carloadings is a leading economic indicator.  Likely things will get worse.   I didn't post this as advice to buy or sell or make a comment on PSR. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, July 11, 2019 10:57 PM

kgbw49
One thing of interest railroads is the amount of net debt issued on an annual basis compared to the stock buybacks.

Recent years have seen railroads touting returning over 100% of net income to shareholders in any given year. Pretty much the only way to do that is load up on debt-funded share buybacks, it would seem to me.

Study the increase in net debt of individual railroads over the last 5-7 years and draw your own conclusions.

The Hallmark of Hedge Funders - increase debt in the companies they control and pump the proceeds into the hedge fund via stock buy backs.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by kgbw49 on Thursday, July 11, 2019 10:36 PM

One thing of interest for railroads is the amount of net debt issued on an annual basis compared to the stock buybacks.

Recent years have seen railroads touting returning over 100% of net income to shareholders in any given year. Pretty much the only way to do that is load up on debt-funded share buybacks, it would seem to me.

Study the increase in net debt of individual railroads over the last 5-7 years and draw your own conclusions.

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Posted by JPS1 on Thursday, July 11, 2019 10:26 PM

caldreamer
 This is why BNSF is so good.  They DO NOT worry about wall street......

Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - pays attention to Wall Street.  It owns BNSF.  Its financial performance, along with those of the other holdings, which roll up to the consolidated financial statements, has an indirect impact on Wall Street. 

BNSF's management does not have to be as sensitive to Wall Street as a corporation that has its shares traded publicly, but it probably is not immune to Wall Street's evaluations of its performance. And it is certainly not immune to Buffett’s expectations or those of the executive team.   

The last time I checked, BNSF files financial statements with the SEC, so it is not likely that they are able to ignore completely the evaluations of the financial community.  

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Posted by Uncle_Bob on Thursday, July 11, 2019 10:11 PM

caldreamer

This is why BNSF is so good.  They DO NOT worry about wall street, they worry about servicing their customers, NOT driving them away and by doing so earn money.  To me PSR stinks.  It is the bane of all of the railroads that adopt it, and they deserve what they get.

    Caldreamer

 

Of course, being owned by Berkshire Hathaway probably doesn't hurt. 

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Posted by JPS1 on Thursday, July 11, 2019 10:09 PM

Electroliner 1935
Any signs of lower plant investment this year?  

From 2014 through 2018 CSX net investment in property, plant, and equipment increased from $28.6 billion to $32 billion.  Net investment includes additions minus retirements less depreciation expense.
 
Over the same period the company invested $11.2 billion for capital additions.  Most of the money would have gone for additions to property, plant, and equipment.  However, the amounts invested in 2018 were 17.1 percent below 2017, which was 17.5 percent below 2016. 
 
Capital expenditures during the first quarter of 2019 were $353 million compared to $368 million for the first quarter of 2018 or 4.2 percent below the first quarter 2018 expenditures.  
 
Capital expenditures are driven by a multiplicity of factors.  CSX has pulled back on its capital expenditures over the last two years and first quarter 2019 compared to first quarter 2018.  Whether it has done so because of estimated poor returns on additional capital investments, or whether the company is postponing capital investment that could come back to bite it in the future is not known.   
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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, July 11, 2019 9:59 PM

Electroliner 1935
What concerns me is if to make earnings goals, the executives cut back on the maintenance of the railroad. Stop surfacing and tie replacements, allow for more slow orders and then start the deferred maintenance spiral. Lowers expences to match reduced revenue but cannibalize the plant. Any signs of lower plant investment this year?

That is the Penn Central trap.

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Thursday, July 11, 2019 9:40 PM

What concerns me is if to make earnings goals, the executives cut back on the maintenance of the railroad. Stop surfacing and tie replacements, allow for more slow orders and then start the deferred maintenance spiral. Lowers expences to match reduced revenue but cannibalize the plant. Any signs of lower plant investment this year?

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Posted by caldreamer on Thursday, July 11, 2019 8:59 PM

This is why BNSF is so good.  They DO NOT worry about wall street, they worry about servicing their customers, NOT driving them away and by doing so earn money.  To me PSR stinks.  It is the bane of all of the railroads that adopt it, and they deserve what they get.

    Caldreamer

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Posted by Juniata Man on Thursday, July 11, 2019 8:57 PM

diningcar

Thank you,

 

This information assists participants at this site to spend our time with you, or not.

 

If I may loosely borrow from John Lennon - “I’d like to thank you on behalf of the group and I hope we‘ve passed the audition.”

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, July 11, 2019 8:18 PM

n012944
You have already shown your knowledge of CSX is horrible, selling the stock right before it almost tripled in price.  So you have no idea if their projection is right or wrong.  

Ha! your trolling again.

Most of the increase in value was due to EHH announcing he was comming over to CSX to implement PSR and was indeed predictable after the announcement.   In fact, the same thing happened with CN & CP stock values right after the announcement EHH was comming to rescue them.    UP stock was high flying already.   Once they announced PSR they might have increased 20-25% due to the EHH impact of PSR not as dramatic as CSX's increase because UNP was already a well run company.    Most of UP's value is due to it's history as a well managed company over time and not based on a emotional news item.    I don't day trade nor do I pay attention to day trader sites like seeking alpha which if you read the small print the author of the article that says SELL has a SHORT position in UNP Stock.   Which might make sense if you change your investments each quarter and attempt to time the market.   It's senseless if your a LT investor.

CSX has not recovered from their loss of coal traffic and is aleady abandoning large segments of track.    UNP has done so much better compared to CSX just on this one item alone.

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Posted by n012944 on Thursday, July 11, 2019 8:02 PM

CMStPnP

 

 

Want to run with the big boys you wouldn't pay much attention to seeking alpha which is OK by me because of anyone on the board I think your general outlook fits your potential to live miserably.    

Good for you

CMStPnP

   They projected right with CSX but are all wrong on UNP.

 

You have already shown your knowledge of CSX is horrible, selling the stock right before it almost tripled in price.  So you have no idea if their projection is right or wrong.  

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, July 11, 2019 7:43 PM

Juniata Man
Over the past five years; CSX essentially has had no meaningful sales presence.  

Their investor calls are so dark and dreary as well.   Not a lot of hope extended to potential investors.    At least that was the case 3-4 years ago.   

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Posted by CMStPnP on Thursday, July 11, 2019 7:34 PM

n012944

 

 
CMStPnP

    UP stock has been wavering but is increasing now on expectation of higher earnings numbers about to be released this next quarter.

 

 

 

The same website's outlook on the UP.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269936-union-pacific-face-headwinds

"UNP is up over 15% Y/Y. Sans more stimulus, the company's top line could continue to falter. Sell UNP."

 

Want to run with the big boys you wouldn't pay much attention to seeking alpha which is OK by me because of anyone on the board I think your general outlook fits your potential to live miserably.    

Long Term investor here not a day trader and I never pay attention to seeking alpha.   They projected right with CSX but are all wrong on UNP.

 

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Posted by diningcar on Thursday, July 11, 2019 7:33 PM

Thank you,

 

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Posted by diningcar on Thursday, July 11, 2019 7:31 PM

Thank you, 

This info helps us listen, or not, when you offer opinions.

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Posted by Juniata Man on Thursday, July 11, 2019 6:16 PM

40 year rail shipper having worked in grain; mining and chemicals.  I have dealt  with all the Class 1’s and many short line and regional railroads.

And; for what it’s worth; served two years as president of North American Rail Shippers Association; three years as Chairman of the NITL’s rail committee; three years on the BNSF Customer Advisory Board; eight years on the distribution committee of the American Chemistry Council; and four years on the board of Southwest Rail Shippers Association.

Now; whether you choose to listen me is entirely up to you.

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Posted by diningcar on Thursday, July 11, 2019 6:00 PM

Juniata man, what are your credentials that would establish you as whom we should respect and listen to?

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Posted by Juniata Man on Thursday, July 11, 2019 5:46 PM

BaltACD

My understanding is that EHH elimintated what little 'sales' presence CSX had when he took over.

 

 
He also wanted to eliminate customer service.  As related to me; his reasoning was he would make CSX so problem free they would have no need for customer service.
 
And that worked out real well...(sarcasm intended)
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Posted by n012944 on Thursday, July 11, 2019 5:04 PM

CMStPnP

    UP stock has been wavering but is increasing now on expectation of higher earnings numbers about to be released this next quarter.

 

The same website's outlook on the UP.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269936-union-pacific-face-headwinds

"UNP is up over 15% Y/Y. Sans more stimulus, the company's top line could continue to falter. Sell UNP."

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, July 11, 2019 4:34 PM

Juniata Man
Over the past five years; CSX essentially has had no meaningful sales presence.  Except for contract renewals; we went a 24 month period and never saw or heard from the individual who was supposed to be calling on us.  And during that period of time I moved every bit of our non-captive traffic from CSX to NS and still he didn’t reach out to understand what was behind our drop in volume with them.

Bill Stephens had a story over on Newswire a few months ago quoting a CSX executive that they had plans to start expanding their sales force but; that was contradictory to what I was told by one of their senior people back in February when I asked if they planned to start expanding the sales team.  The response I got was “no - why should we?”

From my perspective as a chemical customer; CSX’s marketing strategy didn’t change much from Michael Ward to Hunter or Jim Foote.  The plan seems to be no more visionary than continuing to jack rates on a shrinking customer base.

My understanding is that EHH elimintated what little 'sales' presence CSX had when he took over.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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