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The future of rail hauled coal

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 8:57 AM

jeffhergert

 

 
JPS1

 

A significant percentage of the focus group participants believed that we were grabbing the energy out of the sky and charging people for it.  I suppose they believed the harvest was really good during an electrical storm.  I kid you not. 

 

 

Probably because all those touting solar and wind generated electricity claim it's practically free because there are no fuel costs.

I'm not worried about the greenies being able to curtail fracking and natural gas production.  They won't have to.  Once everything is dependent on the supply of gas for everything, the suppliers will curtail it on their own to drive up the price.  I expect them to all of a sudden find religion and come to the conclusion that fracking is bad and has to be curtailed.  So much for having a utility bill that doesn't wreck the family budget.

Jeff

 

Jeff, I'd never say that "...suppliers will curtail it on their own to drive up the price,"  but that's a dangerous game to play.  If they try it don't be surprised if you see oil, and possibly even coal, come roaring back as fuel sources.  Won't happen?  I remember oil-fired electical generating stations being converted back  to coal during the Arab oil embargoes of the early '70s.

As another poster said on another topic a while back...

"Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered!" 

But of course, throw in greed, stupidity, and lack of historic memory on the part of some people and anything's possible.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 10:23 AM

But they won't be cutting back on fracking to drive up the cost of gas.  They'll be doing it to save the planet.  The decreased supply (and any price hike) in the face of increased demand is just an "unfortunate" consequence.

Jeff

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 10:27 AM

jeffhergert
The decreased supply (and any price hike) in the face of increased demand is just an "unfortunate" consequence.

Of course it is.

Just like European profiting on carbon mitigation and 'cap-and-trade' is helping to save the planet, thousands and thousands of euros at a time.

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 10:27 AM

Jeff, for whatever reason they do it, real or bogus, it's still a dangerous game to play.  

That's all I'm saying.  I'm not saying you're wrong and I'm right, just making an observation.

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 10:31 AM

Overmod

 

 
jeffhergert
The decreased supply (and any price hike) in the face of increased demand is just an "unfortunate" consequence.

 

Of course it is.

Just like European profiting on carbon mitigation and 'cap-and-trade' is helping to save the planet, thousands and thousands of euros at a time.

 

And you know, that reminds me of the Catholic Church's practice of selling indulgences in the 16th Century, the "Buy your way out of Purgatory" scam that provoked, among other things, the Protestant Reformation.

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 11:27 AM

Flintlock76
... that reminds me of the Catholic Church's practice of selling indulgences in the 16th Century, the "Buy your way out of Purgatory" scam ...

Well now, wait a moment, don't you think it's worth paying for particularly expedient action by well-trained hot-climate experts?  (Who made a particular point that they alone were competent to understand and implement the evidence.)  That was the argument then as now.  

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 12:50 PM

Overmod

 

 
Flintlock76
... that reminds me of the Catholic Church's practice of selling indulgences in the 16th Century, the "Buy your way out of Purgatory" scam ...

 

Well now, wait a moment, don't you think it's worth paying for particularly expedient action by well-trained hot-climate experts?  (Who made a particular point that they alone were competent to understand and implement the evidence.)  That was the argument then as now.  

 

Mod-man ol' buddy, it just goes to show the truth of that old French saying...

(And since I can't speak French I'll have to do it in English.)

"The more things change, the more they stay the same!"

Call me a cynic (I don't mind) but when a "climate expert" makes a doom-and-gloom prediction, and then says "More research is needed," well, I translate that last bit as....

"Keep the grant money coming, PLEASE!  I don't want to lose my happy home!"

Ain't I a stinker?

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 1:01 PM

Flintlock76
Overmod
Flintlock76
... that reminds me of the Catholic Church's practice of selling indulgences in the 16th Century, the "Buy your way out of Purgatory" scam ...

Well now, wait a moment, don't you think it's worth paying for particularly expedient action by well-trained hot-climate experts?  (Who made a particular point that they alone were competent to understand and implement the evidence.)  That was the argument then as now.  

Mod-man ol' buddy, it just goes to show the truth of that old French saying...

(And since I can't speak French I'll have to do it in English.)

"The more things change, the more they stay the same!"

Call me a cynic (I don't mind) but when a "climate expert" makes a doom-and-gloom prediction, and then says "More research is needed," well, I translate that last bit as....

"Keep the grant money coming, PLEASE!  I don't want to lose my happy home!"

Ain't I a stinker?

We can research the causes all we want, but whatever's going to happen will still happen.  The fact is that the planet is warming, sea levels are rising, and permafrost is thawing. 

I don't want to start a arguement over why the climate is warming because it doesn't really matter, we are still going to have to live with the effects.  Now that the ball is rolling there isn't much that humans can do to stop it, what with the positive feedback loop of methane emissions from thawing permafrost. 

Ironically, my little corner of the world stands to benefit from global warming (longer growing season, easier winters), provided we take the proper precautions to deal with larger forest fires, floods, and erratic water supply levels. 

But there is an impending disaster for those who live at or close to sea level, in the arctic, or in many other larger, far more densely populated regions.  I hope we figure out how to adapt and accomodate them.

What does this have to do with railroads?  Track and operations are affected by temperature and ground conditions, and of course by natural disasters.  I wonder if the new owners of the Hudson Bay Railway have given any thought to resurrecting the old pilot project of permanently freezing their subgrade with a refrigeration system...

Greetings from Alberta

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 1:03 PM

Flintlock76
Ain't I a stinker?

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 1:04 PM

You beat me to it Mod-Man!

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 1:25 PM

SD70Dude

 

 
Flintlock76
Overmod
Flintlock76
... that reminds me of the Catholic Church's practice of selling indulgences in the 16th Century, the "Buy your way out of Purgatory" scam ...

Well now, wait a moment, don't you think it's worth paying for particularly expedient action by well-trained hot-climate experts?  (Who made a particular point that they alone were competent to understand and implement the evidence.)  That was the argument then as now.  

Mod-man ol' buddy, it just goes to show the truth of that old French saying...

(And since I can't speak French I'll have to do it in English.)

"The more things change, the more they stay the same!"

Call me a cynic (I don't mind) but when a "climate expert" makes a doom-and-gloom prediction, and then says "More research is needed," well, I translate that last bit as....

"Keep the grant money coming, PLEASE!  I don't want to lose my happy home!"

Ain't I a stinker?

 

 

We can research the causes all we want, but whatever's going to happen will still happen.  The fact is that the planet is warming, sea levels are rising, and permafrost is thawing. 

I don't want to start a arguement over why the climate is warming because it doesn't really matter, we are still going to have to live with the effects.  Now that the ball is rolling there isn't much that humans can do to stop it, what with the positive feedback loop of methane emissions from thawing permafrost. 

Ironically, my little corner of the world stands to benefit from global warming (longer growing season, easier winters), provided we take the proper precautions to deal with larger forest fires, floods, and erratic water supply levels. 

But there is an impending disaster for those who live at or close to sea level, in the arctic, or in many other larger, far more densely populated regions.  I hope we figure out how to adapt and accomodate them.

What does this have to do with railroads?  Track and operations are affected by temperature and ground conditions, and of course by natural disasters.  I wonder if the new owners of the Hudson Bay Railway have given any thought to resurrecting the old pilot project of permanently freezing their subgrade with a refrigeration system...

 

No need to apologize for not being in denial.  But the causes are important because the man-caused portion of warming can be mitigated to some extent.  Some reductions in CO2 is preferable to doing nothing. 

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 1:27 PM

charlie hebdo

No need to apologize for not being in denial. 

I'm just feeling extra Canadian today.  Sorry aboot that eh.

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 3:46 PM

Mod-man, 'Dude,  Thumbs Up

I was hoping someone would remember that old Bugs Bunny line besides me!

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 3:54 PM

Whadaya think we are, some kind of ultra-maroons!?

Greetings from Alberta

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Posted by zardoz on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 7:51 PM

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Posted by J. Bishop on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 11:57 PM

Again the fact private businesses are using them, including railroads, answers the implication of your question. As for the panels on my house, they have already paid for themselves and I can turn up the air conditioning as high as I want. The sun shines anyway, why waste it?

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Wednesday, July 3, 2019 7:51 AM

Just so there's no mistake, I'm in favor of anything  that will give us total energy self-sufficiency in this country!  The less we have to rely on imports the better off we'll be in the long run.

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Posted by J. Bishop on Wednesday, July 3, 2019 1:48 PM

Again the fact private businesses are using them, including railroads, answers the implication of your question. As for the panels on my house, they have already paid for themselves and I can turn up the air conditioning as high as I want. The sun shines anyway, why waste it?

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Posted by Overmod on Wednesday, July 3, 2019 2:33 PM

J. Bishop
Again the fact private businesses are using them, including railroads, answers the implication of your question.

There's a world of difference between the construction of these mostly small-scale panel installations and what's required for effective baseline solar (which is really what this proposed project is: an 'effective' replacement for coal-fired generation).  It's relatively easy to understand why the battery component is included in the systems development (and why its construction and details of its practical operation differ, in some respects significantly, from the usual energy-storage arrangements used in, say, home photovoltaic installations.

One place I would like to see further technical details is the difference in cost per kW/hr between 'battery' and 'panel' power.  The stated costs almost necessarily involve non-renewable charging of the batteries with off-peak generated power, which the massive parallel battery strings facilitate in much the same way magnetic storage promised 20 years ago.

I don't know the specific battery technologies and construction that are proposed for use, but I can't imagine utility engineers depending on either deep cycling or full topping charge on their battery banks.  Whether conservative operation (and more and more production and installation of cells and batteries as baseline is shifted over to the solar/battery infrastructure over time) actually produces the desired saving in service remains to be seen.  As does the amortized replacement cost corresponding to panel aging, environmental degradation, less efficient mounting and steering, etc.

Frankly better to spend it there than "HSR" down the Rt. 99 corridor.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, July 3, 2019 6:26 PM

J. Bishop

Again the fact private businesses are using them, including railroads, answers the implication of your question. As for the panels on my house, they have already paid for themselves and I can turn up the air conditioning as high as I want. The sun shines anyway, why waste it?

 

And a lot of the railroad locations have back-up portable generators for when the solar power fails or the battery supply is exhausted.

Jeff

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, July 3, 2019 6:41 PM

jeffhergert
 
J. Bishop

Again the fact private businesses are using them, including railroads, answers the implication of your question. As for the panels on my house, they have already paid for themselves and I can turn up the air conditioning as high as I want. The sun shines anyway, why waste it? 

And a lot of the railroad locations have back-up portable generators for when the solar power fails or the battery supply is exhausted.

Jeff

Many of the locations where railroads are using solar panels, getting 'commercial' power to the location would be exhorbitantly expensive.

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Posted by CatFoodFlambe on Thursday, July 4, 2019 12:20 PM

Methinks the future for energy demand will be diversified, oriented toward locally available energy - hydro in the mountains, oil near ports, wind on the plains, with gas/coal/oil as the underpinnings.   Local solar at the individual structure level - even here in Ohio, solar installation on individual home can provide as much as a third of the home's individual use needs - particularly in peak demand periods (most extreme temperature days are clear), and will smooth down overall capacity requirements.    Think of of all the existing flat-roof buildings that could add to the grid without consuming extra land.

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Posted by JPS1 on Thursday, July 4, 2019 8:05 PM

J. Bishop
 As for the panels on my house, they have already paid for themselves and I can turn up the air conditioning as high as I want. The sun shines anyway, why waste it? 

Whether installing residential solar panels makes economic sense depends on the installation cost, taxable income, federal tax credit, present value of the energy bill savings, and the alternative investment opportunity rate of return (hurdle rate).
 
The average installation cost for my house in south Texas, as an example, would be $14,600.  The net cost after application of the federal tax credit of $4,5000 would be $10,100.
 
I am a low volume electric energy user.  My electric bill last year averaged $35.53 a month before application of the monthly customer charge, which is $24.80.  It ranged from a low of $16.37 a month in January to a high of $80.84 in August.
 
Customers that have solar panels still pay the monthly customer charge, which is the charge to connect to the grid.  Unless one envisions going without electric energy when the sun does not shine or the panels fail, staying on the grid is an imperative.
 
Using the weighted average after tax return on my investment portfolio as the hurdle rate, the Net Present Value of an investment in solar panels for my house at the end of 30 years would be -$3,868.49.  Even at the end of 100 years the NPV would still be in negative territory. 
 
The straight payback period would be 23.7 years.  But this calculation does not take into consideration the time value of money and the compounding of interest.  Both are critical for a realistic calculation of whether an investment will ultimately pay for itself
 
At the end of 20 years, solar panels in Texas are expected to have lost 20 percent of their generating capability.  Several sources have indicated that the panels will not last 30 years.  Moreover, hail and wind damage are common in Texas.  It is a rare homeowner that does not have to have h/her roof replaced within 20 years.  The roofers have to remove the solar panels to replace or repair the roof, which adds to the cost.     
 
I did not increase the estimated electric rates over a 30-year period for a good reason.  I don’t know what they will be.  Neither does anyone else. 
 
Most people installing solar panels use generic figures provided by the company selling and installing the panels.  But to be accurate a customer’s specific numbers must be used to determine if solar panels will produce a positive outcome.  Clearly, in my case it would not be a good investment.
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Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, July 4, 2019 9:21 PM

In some places the home owner gets paid by the power company, if excess electricity flows back into the grid.  Is that a consideration in Texas?

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, July 4, 2019 9:25 PM

MidlandMike

In some places the home owner gets paid by the power company, if excess electricity flows back into the grid.  Is that a consideration in Texas?

New York had that, but it's gone now.  It was a major incentive for installing solar.

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Posted by JPS1 on Thursday, July 4, 2019 10:32 PM

MidlandMike
 In some places the home owner gets paid by the power company, if excess electricity flows back into the grid.  Is that a consideration in Texas? 

It is a consideration albeit a small one. 

Approximately 85 percent of Texans buy their power in the competitive retail electric energy market.  Some of the Retail Energy Providers (REPs) will buy back excess power, although the amount and rates vary widely according to the contract.  I don’t believe they are required to buy the excess power. 

For the roughly 15 percent of Texans that get their power from municipal and/or co-op power suppliers, their provider may buy back the excess power.  I am not sure whether they are required to do so.

According to a June 19, 2019 article in the Houston Chronicle, interest in residential solar systems has dropped off significantly.  Several installers have gone bankrupt.  

I have asked five of people in my community, who have installed solar systems, how they determined the payback period for their solar system. All of them relied on the straight payback period.  Not a one of them used Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return to determine the value of their system.   

There are some really big houses near me.  They probably get or would get better financial results for their solar system than I would. 

There are not many people in Texas with an average monthly electric bill of approximately $36.  I live in a small house, set the temperature at 79 during the summer months, and turn the air off at night unless the temperature during the day gets above 98 for more than four or five days.  How do I get away with it?  No spouse!

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, July 4, 2019 10:57 PM

JPS1
How do I get away with it?  No spouse!

No sweat glands!

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Posted by RDG467 on Friday, July 5, 2019 12:14 PM

Flintlock76

Yeah, leave Moby Dick alone!

<snip>

Where do people think the "juice" is going to come from?  There's no "electricity fairy" and Saint Thomas Edison can't send it down from Heaven. Sheesh!   

Wrong ' Saint'. Nikola Tesla proved he could *transmit* electrical power w/o wires. I think he was also able to *generate* power on a small scale from the Electro-Magnetic waves hitting the earth.  

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, July 5, 2019 12:50 PM

There it goes again!

.

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, July 5, 2019 12:51 PM

RDG467
' Saint'. Nikola Tesla proved he could *transmit* electrical power w/o wires.

Not if you want modulated broadcast radio.  Or telephone systems with overhead wires.  Or fences with wire orthogonal to one of the directed beams.

Be careful with that 'electromagnetic waves hitting the Earth'; I think you're much more likely to get interesting effects from understanding what is behind 'telluric currents' with respect to Tesla broadcast-power experiments.  You might want to read up on what experiments like HAARP are intended to do with electromagnetic 'coupling' with the Earth and its magnetic field, but this is much less 'generating' power than producing very high synergistic effects from a comparatively small injection of charge carriers, much of which involves the rotational inertia more than than any incident radiation.

Now, Tesla's influence on Westinghouse qualifies him for inclusion in the actual electricity Fair Folk, as does the basic use of AC to carry useful power in the space charge around conductors than in skin effect.  It took a very long time, and some decidedly better materials science, to get HVDC (as a necessary part of Edison's 'horse' in the War of the Currents) up to the same level of economy.  And a whole world's worth of spinoff tech to make HVDC-to-LVDC transversion for commercial-power purposes a household-cost-effective technology.

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