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If freight rail volume were to quadruple over the next 10-15 years, where would the bottlenecks in the system appear?

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Posted by kgbw49 on Monday, April 22, 2019 10:11 PM

Here is some UP traffic information:

https://www.up.com/investors/attachments/factbooks/2008/factbook.pdf

See page 31 of 40 of the 2008 UP Fact Book.

9.261 million carloads in 2008 (9.852 million in 2006 - the all-time peak) but many of these were coal trains from the Powder River Basin, prior to the natural gas boom.

In 2017, UP had 8.588 million revenue carloads per their 2017 Fact Book.

In 2018, UP had 8.908 million revenue carloads per their 2018 Q4 Financial Press Release.

in 2008, UP had 2.328 million revenue loads in their Energy Sector, of which 90% or 2.095 million were coal loads from the PRB or CO/UT (per 2008 Fact Book).

In 2018, UP had 1.650 million revenue carloads in their Energy Sector per their Q4 financial report, but that also included frac sand, ethanol and crude oil trains. No full-year coal load info was broken out, but Q4 coal loads were 252,000, which would correlate to about 1.0+ million coal loads for the year.

If UP again has 4% growth in carloads in 2019 as they did in 2018, they will have about 9.264 million carloads and will have finally exceeded 2008 carloads (though not have yet surpassed 2006).

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 3:33 PM

RailRoader608

Would we run out of terminal capacity first? or linehaul capacity? 

 

And do bottlenecks already exist today along some routes? I'm not really sure which answer is easier to solve either; both adding a track and building a new terminal sound incredibly expensive.

 

Terminal.  The line haul stuff is easier to fix, generally. Launching and putting trains away in terminals chews up capacity like crazy.

 

But, quadrupling is a tall order....

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 5:18 PM

kgbw49

Here is some UP traffic information:

https://www.up.com/investors/attachments/factbooks/2008/factbook.pdf

See page 31 of 40 of the 2008 UP Fact Book.

9.261 million carloads in 2008 (9.852 million in 2006 - the all-time peak) but many of these were coal trains from the Powder River Basin, prior to the natural gas boom.

In 2017, UP had 8.588 million revenue carloads per their 2017 Fact Book.

In 2018, UP had 8.908 million revenue carloads per their 2018 Q4 Financial Press Release.

in 2008, UP had 2.328 million revenue loads in their Energy Sector, of which 90% or 2.095 million were coal loads from the PRB or CO/UT (per 2008 Fact Book).

In 2018, UP had 1.650 million revenue carloads in their Energy Sector per their Q4 financial report, but that also included frac sand, ethanol and crude oil trains. No full-year coal load info was broken out, but Q4 coal loads were 252,000, which would correlate to about 1.0+ million coal loads for the year.

If UP again has 4% growth in carloads in 2019 as they did in 2018, they will have about 9.264 million carloads and will have finally exceeded 2008 carloads (though not have yet surpassed 2006).

 

The loss of coal is what's mostly reduced the train count in my neck of the woods.  A few trains, including one coal train, were rerouted away from our route.  I'm not sure if those rerouted trains still run anymore.  I can think of 7 or 8 power plants that had a loaded train about every day.  A couple were good for two about every day.  And then throw in the empties going back.

It's amazing how things have changed.

Jeff  

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Posted by kgbw49 on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 9:31 PM

We are all sincerely pulling for UP and you, Jeff!

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Posted by CMStPnP on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 8:11 AM

kgbw49
We are all sincerely pulling for UP and you, Jeff!

Their stock is doing fantastic, I have more than doubled my original investment of just 8 years ago.    It's approaching $200 a share, bought near $80.....400+ shares and climbing slowly due to divident reinvestment.

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Posted by zardoz on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 10:16 AM

jeffhergert
I can think of 7 or 8 power plants that had a loaded train about every day.  A couple were good for two about every day.  And then throw in the empties going back.

The Pleasant Prairie power plant has closed recently, although WE Energies is using the facility for storing the unused empty cars.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 9:38 PM

zardoz

 

 
jeffhergert
I can think of 7 or 8 power plants that had a loaded train about every day.  A couple were good for two about every day.  And then throw in the empties going back.

 

The Pleasant Prairie power plant has closed recently, although WE Energies is using the facility for storing the unused empty cars.

 

 

That was one that was good for two loads and returning empties about everyday.

I'm pretty safe with my seniority.  It's those on the bubble I'm concerned about.  One day they're working the conductor's pools with a fairly comfortable cushion below them.  A few weeks later they're worried about being regulated to the AWRR (retention board where you work two days a week) or worse, being furloughed completely.  Right now we're starting down the cutting back mode again, while a new hire class is ready or has started.

Jeff

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Posted by CShaveRR on Thursday, April 25, 2019 9:40 PM

Jeff, which coal operation is missing now, if I may be so bold?
It was a little startling to see the Pleasant Prairie plant with no steam coming from its stack yesterday.  Guess it's done, huh, and all WEPX trains through here are now going to Oak Creek?

(When I hired out, Pleasant Prairie didn't exist, but Oak Creek did.  What goes around comes around, I guess.)

Carl

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Posted by zardoz on Friday, April 26, 2019 11:24 AM

CShaveRR
It was a little startling to see the Pleasant Prairie plant with no steam coming from its stack yesterday.  Guess it's done, huh, and all WEPX trains through here are now going to Oak Creek?

Carl, even the coal stacks are gone, tore down a few weeks ago. Oak Creek is now the source of our electricity.

On a personal note, I was glad to see the plant close as it generated an annoying amount of black dust that made hanging laundry a bad idea when the wind was coming from the wrong direction. And then there's the other pollutants (mercury) that we were exposed to. Too bad the plant didn't last long enough to burn T.Rumps "clean coal".

 

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Posted by kgbw49 on Friday, April 26, 2019 11:50 AM

The Elm Road Generating Station in Oak Creek (just north of the Oak Creek Generating Station) is 1,268 MW. The 634 MW Unit 1 commenced commercial operation In 2010 and the 634 MW Unit 2 commenced commercial operatiin 2011.

 https://www.we-energies.com/home/elm-road-generating-station.htm

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Posted by jeffhergert on Friday, April 26, 2019 6:32 PM

CShaveRR

Jeff, which coal operation is missing now, if I may be so bold?
It was a little startling to see the Pleasant Prairie plant with no steam coming from its stack yesterday.  Guess it's done, huh, and all WEPX trains through here are now going to Oak Creek?

(When I hired out, Pleasant Prairie didn't exist, but Oak Creek did.  What goes around comes around, I guess.)

 

I can only say by destination, I don't always know which power company owned what.  Off the top of my head some regular destinations gone are Powerville (Marshalltown, IA-new gas plant), Waukegon and Will County, Kinkaid, Fruitland (Muscatine).  I haven't seen a Michigan City for quite awhile, but we still have a few Wheatfield trains.  It seems like not as many though.  The Cedar Rapids area used to be good for trains to Alliant and ADM.  The Alliant trains kind of tapered off, I haven't seen one for awhile but they could be getting trains via other railroads.  I know BNSF-IAIS now has the ADM contract, so there is always a chance to regain it.  There was one run-through to CSX that they rerouted across Missouri to avoid Chicago.  I don't know if it still runs.

The Fruitland trains still run, only via BNSF-CPRS.  Fruitland is (primarily) a Mid-America plant.  Mid-America, has is BNSF, is in the Berkshire Hathaway camp.  It wasn't a surprise we lost that contract.

And of course, Pleasant Prairie is gone.

Jeff

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Posted by SAMUEL C WALKER on Sunday, April 28, 2019 11:22 AM

The Federal Government created an estimate for railroad capacity in 2035 in 2007. It is instructive. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/trainvolcap2035.htm

RailRoader608

Would we run out of terminal capacity first? or linehaul capacity? 

 

And do bottlenecks already exist today along some routes? I'm not really sure which answer is easier to solve either; both adding a track and building a new terminal sound incredibly expensive.

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, April 28, 2019 5:28 PM

 

SAMUEL C WALKER

The Federal Government created an estimate for railroad capacity in 2035 in 2007. It is instructive. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/trainvolcap2035.htm 

RailRoader608

Would we run out of terminal capacity first? or linehaul capacity?  

And do bottlenecks already exist today along some routes? I'm not really sure which answer is easier to solve either; both adding a track and building a new terminal sound incredibly expensive.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, April 28, 2019 5:34 PM

 

SAMUEL C WALKER

The Federal Government created an estimate for railroad capacity in 2035 in 2007. It is instructive. https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/trainvolcap2035.htm 

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by jeffhergert on Sunday, April 28, 2019 6:44 PM

Update for Carl, and anyone else.  I see a Waukegan coal train on the line up, so they're not completely gone.  I line up for it, all 180 cars of it.  Normal trains are more like 135 +/-.

Maybe the question isn't where will the bottlenecks be if traffic volumes increase.  Maybe it should be will those railroads practicing PSR even want increased volumes? 

Some former EHH railroads have since found after he left that you have to have growth, and spend money to do so.  They may not have abandoned PSR completely, but they've realized only cutting takes you so far.

Jeff

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Sunday, April 28, 2019 8:43 PM

jeffhergert
. . . Some former EHH railroads have since found after he left that you have to have growth, and spend money to do so. . . . 

Exactly what Matt Rose of BNSF has been saying for the last several months, including in his interview with Trains.  Evidently ("manifestly" Smile, Wink & Grin ) BNSF has known this without first 'drinking the Kool-Aid' of PSR, and the resultant delay of taking the intellectual and operating detour of trying to implement PSR before coming to this conclusion.  Too bad the costs of PSR - lost opportunity and otherwise - can't be quantified and charged to those responsible.

- PDN. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by tree68 on Sunday, April 28, 2019 10:16 PM

jeffhergert
but they've realized only cutting takes you so far.

Which rather follows the concept that cutting only moved money to where it to could removed by the investors interested only in the money...

There was no long-term planning in their strategy.

LarryWhistling
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Posted by Shadow the Cats owner on Sunday, April 28, 2019 10:31 PM

I can say this from my perspective on my industry.  If freight volume goes up that much without a major investment in the invastructure in this nation especially the roads then more than likely the entire logistics chain would collaspe from the bottlenecks in the major cities alone.  Just getting in and out of the areas around the old Joliet Arsenal in Illinois are a major pain in the rear anytime of the day.  Why the local roads into and out of the logistics parks can't handle the volume of traffic.   If you're heading north into Chicago it's 3 lanes of bumper to bumper traffic almost a solid 8 hours a freaking day now for 50 miles between Joliet and Chicago.  The beltway interstates are the same the bypass aka 294 around it your basically racing at Talladega from Indiana to Wisconsin while praying not for a major accident anywhere on it.  When it can take 90 minutes to go 30 miles in rush hour traffic on a Friday night to just go from the Tristate to I 80 there's no more room for growth in traffic on the road. 

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