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Is NS in the ditch?

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Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, February 15, 2018 8:53 AM

MP173

Somewhat unrelated but the truckload market is extremely stressed right now.  With the implementation of electronic logs, the demand/supply has completely tipped to truckers.  

Talked to one of my customers (regional truckload) and they are bumping rates 25% - 35% with no resistance from shippers.  This is creating a golden opportunity for intermodal...if the lanes are in place.

NS's loadings are generally down but intermodal is experiencing an uptick.  This might continue to grow.  There simply are not enough truck drivers out there now. 

The 550 - 700 mile market has changed dramatically as that cannot be handled "overnight" and is now a 2 day delivery...thus bumping rates signifcantly.

 

ed

 

The good news for NS is the "Premeir Corridor"  (ex-Conrail part) seems relatively unharmed by the near melt-down in the south.  It's the strongest part of the NS's intermodal franchise.  The Atlanta to NJ lane seems in pretty good shape, too.  The trouble is Atlanta to the west.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by MP173 on Thursday, February 15, 2018 7:20 AM

Somewhat unrelated but the truckload market is extremely stressed right now.  With the implementation of electronic logs, the demand/supply has completely tipped to truckers.  

Talked to one of my customers (regional truckload) and they are bumping rates 25% - 35% with no resistance from shippers.  This is creating a golden opportunity for intermodal...if the lanes are in place.

NS's loadings are generally down but intermodal is experiencing an uptick.  This might continue to grow.  There simply are not enough truck drivers out there now. 

The 550 - 700 mile market has changed dramatically as that cannot be handled "overnight" and is now a 2 day delivery...thus bumping rates signifcantly.

 

ed

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, February 14, 2018 1:49 PM

Eastrail11
This was probably due to Amtrak not getting priority,

Absolutely not.  NS moves the Crescent with top priority.  When you have sidings plugged with expired trains, all you can do is fleet trains in a giant conga line. This is what's been happening.  A couple weeks ago, there were trains nose to tail in both directions from beyond Austell all the way to Atlanta.  

You can't pass cars on a two lane road when both directions are in a traffic jam. 

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, February 14, 2018 1:44 PM

blue streak 1

Have no idea if the problems caused this.  Crescent #20 lost 6 hours New Orleans - Atlanta

 

Most likely.  Sidings between Bham and Atlanta have been used to stage trains and hold cars.  The RR isn't completely plugged, but is moving very slowly.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by BaltACD on Wednesday, February 14, 2018 9:19 AM

Eastrail11
This was probably due to Amtrak not getting priority, that is how some other trains like the SouthWest chief to Chicago is currently 4 hours and 50 minutes late, most likely not Amtrak fault. Also the Empire Builder is just over 4 hours late to Chicago. Lets not talk about Via's Canadian, 21 hours late... Back to NS, I hope they do not fall into the hand of another railroad because that might lead to higher prices. Having a BNSF yard in Florida might be intersting though, FEC intermodal to the West coast might lead to more trains in South Florida, which means more trains for us to railfan! Big Smile Also would not mind some more CSX trains. More trains is always good, well, unless you try to beat them. Please excuess al typos.

Rail traffic is what it is - line mergers don't change the available traffic base,  they only change the routing of how that traffic is handled.  Mergers normally lead to fewer trains, not more.

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Posted by Eastrail11 on Wednesday, February 14, 2018 7:44 AM

This was probably due to Amtrak not getting priority, that is how some other trains like the SouthWest chief to Chicago is currently 4 hours and 50 minutes late, most likely not Amtrak fault. Also the Empire Builder is just over 4 hours late to Chicago. Lets not talk about Via's Canadian, 21 hours late... Back to NS, I hope they do not fall into the hand of another railroad because that might lead to higher prices. Having a BNSF yard in Florida might be intersting though, FEC intermodal to the West coast might lead to more trains in South Florida, which means more trains for us to railfan! Big Smile Also would not mind some more CSX trains. More trains is always good, well, unless you try to beat them. Please excuess al typos. 

~Eastrail

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 6:28 PM

Have no idea if the problems caused this.  Crescent #20 lost 6 hours New Orleans - Atlanta

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Posted by ns145 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 4:19 PM

Paul of Covington

   Could it be that NS is swamped by increased traffic?   Refugees from CSX?

 

Overall, NS' traffic year to date is flat compared to 2017 (-524 units as of 2/10/2018).  Intermodal is up 5.7% (25,500 units) while coal is down 11.1% (-13,268 carloads) and merchandise traffic is down 4.5% (-12,756 carloads). 

Usually when merchandise traffic drops off it frees up capacity at classification yards and dwell time decreases.  Yet, we are seeing the exact opposite response in the terminal dwell stats.  That is a bit of a head scratcher.

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 3:52 PM

BaltACD
NS troubles are self inflicted.

Yep.  "the drive to 65" is now progresing to the ditch.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 3:51 PM

LithoniaOperator

oltmannd, are those idle trains in sidings sitting there with the power still attached?

 

Mostly.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by ns145 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 3:48 PM

Mookie

So NS numbers don't improve.  Who blinks first?  Who steps in and makes the first move.  Stockholders?  BOD?  Do they replace management and hope for the best?  Where does it go from here?  

 

 

Customers will complain to NS about declining service levels.  If NS does not get out ahead of this thing, then the shippers will ask the STB to get involved.  In short, CSX last summer all over again. 

Given all of the financial improvements Jim Squires and his team have made at NS over the past couple of years, plus the successful thwarting of the CP takeover by Hunter Harrison, NS' management is quite safe for the forseeable future.  The operating stats might look bad, but the financials are good.         

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Posted by Mookie on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 2:04 PM

So NS numbers don't improve.  Who blinks first?  Who steps in and makes the first move.  Stockholders?  BOD?  Do they replace management and hope for the best?  Where does it go from here?  

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Posted by ricktrains4824 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 11:43 AM

Sure, have BNSF buy out NS, and make all equipment orange.

After all, Orange is the new black.... Laugh

And then UP can buy CN, and CP can own CSX. 

Paint them all yellow, and red, respectively. 

Then, merge them all and call them the Fruit Loop Railway! Smile, Wink & Grin

It would be perfect! 

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Posted by MP173 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 11:20 AM

Here in NW Indiana (ex Conrail) line the intermodals are running pretty true to schedule but there is a slowdown overall.  Not sure what is going on other than we had big snow - 9 straight days and are on the outside of the Chicago mess.  The manifest trains seem to be running a little later than normal.  There is some work going west of Burns Harbor which seems to be slowing the westbounds to a crawl.  

Interestingly, the eastbound afternoon intermodal trailer train 20K the past couple of days has been loaded with UPS containers/trailers.  Typically this train features refer trailers and will run 50-75 units with only a couple of UPS units.  Sunday it had 37 UPS and Monday had 27 UPS.  Never seen that before.

So, either the weather has moved units from the highways to rails, or CSX has dropped the ball on their Q010, or UPS has a new ops plan in place.

Ed

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Posted by ns145 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 11:00 AM

Mookie

 

 
BaltACD
Rough times are one thing.  Self mutiliation is something else.  NS troubles are self inflicted. 

 

Care to expand on this a little?  I would consider it another teaching moment for me.

 

 

 

I believe Balt is referring to NS' aggressive cost cutting moves, including shutting down the hump yard in Chattanooga, TN last year.  Yard dwell stats on the southern end of the railroad have never really recovered after that move (as has been pointed out by oltmannd for months).  Now the disease seems to have metastasized to other parts of the system. 

In my part of the NS world on the former Wabash, trains have been running very long and very late since last November.  A number of questionable operational changes have been made that really are gumming things up.  You know something is wrong when the train dispatcher is talking about recrewing a train that hasn't even made it 50 miles from its inital terminal.  Part of the problem seems to be related to having road crews building 8,000 to10,000 foot long trains at Decatur, IL, then having them switch out bad order cars before they can depart.  This process eats up tons of time.

I also have to wonder if all of the Dash 9's and SD70's being taken out of service for DC2AC conversions is causing problems.  NS did recently lease some ex-BNSF SD70MAC's to cover the shortfall for the SD70ACC conversions.

Lastly, one can only wonder what moving all the train dispatchers to Atlanta will do to the railroad, especially if the attrition rate is high.  The loss of institutional knowledge could be staggering.

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Posted by Mookie on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 8:41 AM

BOB WITHORN
It would go pretty much everywhere.

Bingo!

That has always been my reasoning.  BNSF is lacking in the east and there is no reason they shouldn't have a chunk of that, also.  I know - past mergers were a nightmare, but BNSF is a well run railroad and should be able to figure out something.  

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Posted by BOB WITHORN on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 6:08 AM
They could call it "YES RAIL". It would go pretty much everywhere.
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Posted by Cotton Belt MP104 on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 5:01 AM

Murphy Siding

........................     


My elderly bosses didn't like the change to BNSF. "Bin-siff? What the hell's a Bin-siff?" Maybe they just didn't like change as they had always referred to it as The Great Northern.

 I am assuming the ole timers you speak of were fond of Green and would NOT one bit have liked the phrase Better and Newer Santa Fe   endmrw0213180459bc

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Posted by Mookie on Tuesday, February 13, 2018 3:59 AM

BaltACD
Rough times are one thing.  Self mutiliation is something else.  NS troubles are self inflicted. 

Care to expand on this a little?  I would consider it another teaching moment for me.

She who has no signature! cinscocom-tmw

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, February 12, 2018 9:44 PM

Deggesty
 
Convicted One
 
Mookie
Keep the black/white accent/horse and BNSFNS tucked in there somewhere. 

How about "Norfolk and Western"? 

Norfolk and Everywhere West.

Reporting Mark - NEW

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Posted by Deggesty on Monday, February 12, 2018 9:21 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Mookie
Keep the black/white accent/horse and BNSFNS tucked in there somewhere.

 

 

How about "Norfolk and Western"?

 

Norfolk and Everywhere West.

Johnny

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Monday, February 12, 2018 9:09 PM

Convicted One
How about "Norfolk and Western"?

   I'll vote for that.   Especially if they bring back all steam.

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Monday, February 12, 2018 9:07 PM

Murphy Siding
"Bin-siff? What the hell's a Bin-siff?"

    Nope, I pronounce it "Bun-suff".

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Posted by Murphy Siding on Monday, February 12, 2018 4:54 PM

Northern Santa & Southern. That'll keep 'em guessing. Expect a train at any time- from any direction.


My elderly bosses didn't like the change to BNSF. "Bin-siff? What the hell's a Bin-siff?" Maybe they just didn't like change as they had always referred to it as The Great Northern.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

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Posted by Mookie on Monday, February 12, 2018 4:28 PM

We need something that doesn't sound like all the old, no longer railroads.  

BNSF & Son?  

She who has no signature! cinscocom-tmw

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Posted by rdamon on Monday, February 12, 2018 3:32 PM

Burlington Southern

 

Bring back the green!!!

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Posted by Convicted One on Friday, February 9, 2018 7:15 PM

Mookie
Keep the black/white accent/horse and BNSFNS tucked in there somewhere.

 

How about "Norfolk and Western"?

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Posted by Paul of Covington on Friday, February 9, 2018 2:22 PM

   Could it be that NS is swamped by increased traffic?   Refugees from CSX?

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Posted by Lithonia Operator on Friday, February 9, 2018 1:21 PM

oltmannd, are those idle trains in sidings sitting there with the power still attached?

Still in training.


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