chicagorailseven domestic cont are way down this year,our economy is doing terrible. may be a recession or depression coming soon.nafta shipped mucho jobs overseas and mexico. no one cares
Yesterday the newspaper reported the Dow and SP 500 stock index closings both reached record highs.
Your statement is generally not supported factually.
NAFTA
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Most containers shipped by rail are domestic...JB Hunt, UPS, etc..that isn't going away
I just returned from a California Zephyr trip and can confirm with this downturn UP is not using the D&RG route through the Rockies. Specifically, from Provo thru Winter Park, we encountered one freight when eastbound, and I don't believe there was anything when westbound.
Also of interest are the sidings at Grand Junction. Hundreds (perhaps 300) of four axle locomotives are stored there -- both SW and road types.
According to this site, UP traffic levels for week 26 were higher in four major categories, autos, grain, chemicals and containters, than the same week in 2015
http://www.up.com/investor/aar-stb_reports/index.htm
Sadly, it applies to too many threads around here.
The posted topic didn't even last to the end of the first page.
I followed the lines on trips to/from Californication in 2014 and 2015 and was somewhat disappointed with the number of trains then. No doubt it is slightly worse, now.
Much of the way (Elko to Winnwmucca) there is directional running with the westbounds on the track close to the freeway and the eastbounds waaay off across the valley where you likely wouldn't see them. With track speed close to freeway speed limit it's not surprising you wouldn't see anything.
Winnemucca to Reno Amtrak is on the former SP parallel to the freeway.
BaltACD How far from the toilet is the line in this urination contest?
How far from the toilet is the line in this urination contest?
Great post, Balt. Where's that "Like" button?
ChuckAllen, TX
Well unless they build more pipelines in the country. The rail lines can also start hauling LNG to the ports in addition to Baaken Oil, thats one potential new traffic source they have not tackled yet. Also, jury still out on perishables traffic via Chicago and I think a number of Class 1's are probably in wait and see mode to see how the capacity improvements shave time getting through or around Chicago.
Intermodal is going to continue to grow year over year long-term with our growing economy. I suspect Coal will eventually also make a come back.
Three major ways to make a profit: increase revenue stream, cut costs, leverage debt. In a period of declining coal (and oil) revenue for the UP and BNSF, #2 and 3 can work if interest rates remain low, but only for so long. Finding new, potentially profitable traffic sources (even marginal ones) has to happen to continue to prosper. Otherwise you are stuck with underutilization of assets (track and equipment).
jeffhergertI doubt Warren Buffett wishes he had bought UP instead of BNSF. I've heard that one of the reasons he didn't go after UP was because he thought they were top-heavy in management. Supposedly, although I can't find the quote, he said UP was the biggest mismanaged gold mine in the world. That may have been a few CEOs ago, but I'm not sure much has really changed that would change his mind about buying BNSF.
Railroads don't have a monopoly on that. Too many corporations are top heavy and mismanaged.
Norm
dakotafred jeffhergert There's a big push on to get the operating ratio down to 55. They say it's not only about making cuts, but so far that's mostly what they've done. They only have to last another 17 years. What happens in 17 years? (Not the Rapture?)
jeffhergert There's a big push on to get the operating ratio down to 55. They say it's not only about making cuts, but so far that's mostly what they've done. They only have to last another 17 years.
There's a big push on to get the operating ratio down to 55. They say it's not only about making cuts, but so far that's mostly what they've done.
They only have to last another 17 years.
What happens in 17 years? (Not the Rapture?)
I'll retire. If all goes well. That's a few years longer than I'd have to stay. Most can't wait to retire.
I doubt Warren Buffett wishes he had bought UP instead of BNSF. I've heard that one of the reasons he didn't go after UP was because he thought they were top-heavy in management. Supposedly, although I can't find the quote, he said UP was the biggest mismanaged gold mine in the world. That may have been a few CEOs ago, but I'm not sure much has really changed that would change his mind about buying BNSF.
Jeff
schlimmPutting all or even most of your eggs in one basket is a pretty risky strategy, even with a sound investment such as UP.
UP is the lowest risk in the RR industry and is the only transport sector stock I own. Portfolio is well balanced.
samfp1943 MidlandMike kgbw49 Low interest rates make it easier for the Federal Government to sell more debt - borrow more - because the payments are lower. On $20 trillion in outstanding Federal debt which is growing by $400-$500 billion annually, if the 10 year Treasury ever returns to historical levels of 5% or so, the annual Federal deficit will balloon by hundreds of billions of dollars more than than it currently is. That is because the new debt will come on at a higher interest rate plus any outstanding debt that is reaching maturity has to be rolled over at a higher rate. That then will cause an even bigger annual Federal deficit requiring even more annual borrowing, and the downward spiral continues. So low interest rates support more borrowing by the Federal government. This is the last comment I will be making on this because I erred in talking about unemployed people with little money to spend being a factor in the tepid economy, which in turn is one reason for a roughly 16% drop in carloads over the last two years. I should have realized that it would quickly turn in to a political discourse, and on this forum I would rather spend my time discussing railroad topics than politics. So as for this thread, I am out and others can take it where they wish to go. While the Feds set some interest rates, their T bills/bonds are set by market rates, so I can't see how your arguement applies. Nevertheless, since you don't wish to comment any more, I also don't wish to belabor the point any further. I would also rather spend my time on railfan stuff. YIKES! And this comment as well : Posted by BaltACD on Saturday, June 25, 2016 10:11 PM "How far from the toilet is the line in this urination contest?" I am not trying to be a " Hall Monitor" BUT, This might be a good time for everyone on this Thread to take a deep breath.....
MidlandMike kgbw49 Low interest rates make it easier for the Federal Government to sell more debt - borrow more - because the payments are lower. On $20 trillion in outstanding Federal debt which is growing by $400-$500 billion annually, if the 10 year Treasury ever returns to historical levels of 5% or so, the annual Federal deficit will balloon by hundreds of billions of dollars more than than it currently is. That is because the new debt will come on at a higher interest rate plus any outstanding debt that is reaching maturity has to be rolled over at a higher rate. That then will cause an even bigger annual Federal deficit requiring even more annual borrowing, and the downward spiral continues. So low interest rates support more borrowing by the Federal government. This is the last comment I will be making on this because I erred in talking about unemployed people with little money to spend being a factor in the tepid economy, which in turn is one reason for a roughly 16% drop in carloads over the last two years. I should have realized that it would quickly turn in to a political discourse, and on this forum I would rather spend my time discussing railroad topics than politics. So as for this thread, I am out and others can take it where they wish to go. While the Feds set some interest rates, their T bills/bonds are set by market rates, so I can't see how your arguement applies. Nevertheless, since you don't wish to comment any more, I also don't wish to belabor the point any further. I would also rather spend my time on railfan stuff.
kgbw49 Low interest rates make it easier for the Federal Government to sell more debt - borrow more - because the payments are lower. On $20 trillion in outstanding Federal debt which is growing by $400-$500 billion annually, if the 10 year Treasury ever returns to historical levels of 5% or so, the annual Federal deficit will balloon by hundreds of billions of dollars more than than it currently is. That is because the new debt will come on at a higher interest rate plus any outstanding debt that is reaching maturity has to be rolled over at a higher rate. That then will cause an even bigger annual Federal deficit requiring even more annual borrowing, and the downward spiral continues. So low interest rates support more borrowing by the Federal government. This is the last comment I will be making on this because I erred in talking about unemployed people with little money to spend being a factor in the tepid economy, which in turn is one reason for a roughly 16% drop in carloads over the last two years. I should have realized that it would quickly turn in to a political discourse, and on this forum I would rather spend my time discussing railroad topics than politics. So as for this thread, I am out and others can take it where they wish to go.
Low interest rates make it easier for the Federal Government to sell more debt - borrow more - because the payments are lower. On $20 trillion in outstanding Federal debt which is growing by $400-$500 billion annually, if the 10 year Treasury ever returns to historical levels of 5% or so, the annual Federal deficit will balloon by hundreds of billions of dollars more than than it currently is. That is because the new debt will come on at a higher interest rate plus any outstanding debt that is reaching maturity has to be rolled over at a higher rate.
That then will cause an even bigger annual Federal deficit requiring even more annual borrowing, and the downward spiral continues.
So low interest rates support more borrowing by the Federal government.
This is the last comment I will be making on this because I erred in talking about unemployed people with little money to spend being a factor in the tepid economy, which in turn is one reason for a roughly 16% drop in carloads over the last two years. I should have realized that it would quickly turn in to a political discourse, and on this forum I would rather spend my time discussing railroad topics than politics.
So as for this thread, I am out and others can take it where they wish to go.
While the Feds set some interest rates, their T bills/bonds are set by market rates, so I can't see how your arguement applies. Nevertheless, since you don't wish to comment any more, I also don't wish to belabor the point any further. I would also rather spend my time on railfan stuff.
YIKES! And this comment as well : Posted by BaltACD on Saturday, June 25, 2016 10:11 PM
"How far from the toilet is the line in this urination contest?"
I am not trying to be a " Hall Monitor" BUT, This might be a good time for everyone on this Thread to take a deep breath.....
I was trying to back away from a controversy, and agreed with Mr. kgbw49 that I also would rather talk about railroads than politics. Instead of being a "Hall Monitor" it seems you were just calling attention to a nif-naf that was fading away. Perhaps you could have taken a deep breath to see if the controversy re-ignited before fanning the embers.
CMStPnP I am all in financially with Union Pacific, more than $100,000 invested with them so far and I hope to grow that amount.
Putting all or even most of your eggs in one basket is a pretty risky strategy, even with a sound investment such as UP.
CMStPnP Sorry, had to get my personal feelings in as well. I am all in financially with Union Pacific, more than $100,000 invested with them so far and I hope to grow that amount. They kick arse with the dividend payment and I feel yes they might be going through a slight rough patch now but they have both the innovation and the business marketing skill to bounce back and wow the industry again. Would definitely rate them higher than BNSF and think if Warren had a second chance would pick UP instead of BNSF.
Sorry, had to get my personal feelings in as well. I am all in financially with Union Pacific, more than $100,000 invested with them so far and I hope to grow that amount. They kick arse with the dividend payment and I feel yes they might be going through a slight rough patch now but they have both the innovation and the business marketing skill to bounce back and wow the industry again. Would definitely rate them higher than BNSF and think if Warren had a second chance would pick UP instead of BNSF.
kgbw49 I have been volunteering as Treasurer and Board Member for one of the largest food shelves in the state I live in since 2008. Our usage has tripled and a lot of that increase has been those early retiree baby boomers - mainly white collar - getting laid off and not being able to find another job. They burn through their 99 weeks, then their 401k and then hace nowhere else to go. It is matter of perspective, and that is one story from the front lines. People are being left behind.
I have been volunteering as Treasurer and Board Member for one of the largest food shelves in the state I live in since 2008. Our usage has tripled and a lot of that increase has been those early retiree baby boomers - mainly white collar - getting laid off and not being able to find another job. They burn through their 99 weeks, then their 401k and then hace nowhere else to go. It is matter of perspective, and that is one story from the front lines. People are being left behind.
Lack of personal responsibility in my view on an individual to save or live within their means. Some people need to have this happen to them in order to learn, is also my view. We will become a stronger country and much better educated on saving for the future because of this (happened after the Great Depression). So as hard as it is to watch. Sometimes you just have to stand back and watch (and help out where you can without dragging yourself down with them). I always wonder how Parents raised their kids without teaching the concept of budgeting or saving.
JPS1 The decline in UP’s car loadings is just part of the story. How nimble is the railroad in adjusting it operations to the decline? It appears the UP is more scalable than many imagine. First quarter 2016 operating revenues were down 13.9 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2015. A like kind quarterly comparison indicates that UP was able to reduce operating expenses by 13.6 per cent, thereby mitigating the decline in revenues associated with the fall-off in car loadings. Compensation and benefits were down 11.4 per cent, and fuel fell by 43.3 per cent. These are two of the railroad’s biggest operating expenses. Off-setting these declines was a 2.2 per cent increase in depreciation expense. Operating income was down 15.6 per cent and net income was down 15 per cent. More importantly, however, cash flows from operations during the first quarter 2016 vs. first quarter 2015 was up 5.28 per cent. These numbers suggest that UP management is scaling the railroad to deal with the decline in traffic. My guess is that it will continue to meet the future challenges, as it has done for many years, and will remain a viable investor owned railroad.
samfp1943 schlimm samfp1943
schlimm samfp1943
samfp1943
Yes, if you have to have a Snafu in a Trains Forum thread, this is how to do it...
See the comment about workforce participation above. In 1954, there were a lot fewer women in the workforce. There were some places that wouldn't employ married women, or would do so only reluctantly. That skewed the statistics downward.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
To illustrate the effect of the labor force participation rate versus the unemployment rate, consider this. If everybody quit their job today and decided to never work again, would that result in a good economy or a bad economy? The unemployment rate would be zero.
schlimm samfp1943 YIKES!
samfp1943 YIKES!
samfp1943YIKES!
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
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