Trains.com

Could have free-enterprise freight railroads survived without dieselization?

9962 views
188 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 9,610 posts
Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 9:51 AM

At least some of the newer steam locomotives using newer technologies (PRR, C&O, N&W) had very high maintenance costs and concurrent high out-of-service rates compared to diesel or even older steamers.  To assume steam's high labor costs would have disappeared is yet another example of wishful thinking.

Even in western Europe, the trend was to move away from steam for the same reasons.

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:04 AM
It is common in this “decision to dieselize” topic to cite the tremendous labor involved in maintaining steam compared to diesels.  And it is always put forth with the assumption that if steam were continued beyond the 1950s, the maintenance cost would have remained frozen at the 1950s level. This is an irrational skewing of the argument to make dieselization look more favorable than it actually was.  The obvious fact is that steam locomotives would have continued to evolve.  Steam maintenance had the same potential to streamline under the same mindset that GM introduced with their FT.
One might also argue that that the steam locomotive crafts grew bloated with excess labor-intensive maintenance and repair tasks, and that that could have been prevented if the accountants and innovative people had their way in the bureaucracy.  Then maybe the case for dieselization would not have been so black and white that it had to be an all or nothing proposition that suddenly reached a critical mass throughout the entire railroad industry in this country.
The fact is that the entire railroad industry became overpopulated with labor leading into the 1950s.  Steam locomotive maintenance shared that business malady, but was hardly the only component of it.  So perhaps the often cited excess maintenance cost of steam was just a symptom of a larger problem in the railroad business.  Maybe it was easier to get rid of steam than to fight labor in downsizing the labor force needed to maintain steam.   
  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,022 posts
Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:24 AM

One need only look at the time and money required to overhaul steam locomotives in the modern day - which is usually measured in years and hundreds of thousands of dollars - to understand the amount of labor required to go through just one locomotive, much less hundreds.  

I don't believe the shops weren't governed by the same constraints as operating crews (ie, state laws, etc), so a comparison there is moot.  Labor agreements notwithstanding, it takes X people to do Y function.   If the railroad can get rid of function Y, they can get rid of X people...

One can also look at the real estate needed to maintain steam vs Diesel.  There is a significant difference, and you can bet that if the railroads had figured out how to reduce that, they would have.  

Short of finding another way to transfer energy to the wheels (and we know turbines didn't do a good job), about the only improvements that could physically be made to steam locomotives are pretty much limited to improving heat transfer efficiency and using materials that would require less maintenance.  

 

 

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:59 AM

     I can't imagine how modern technologycould improve some aspects of operating steam locomotives.  You'd still have to haul the coal from the mine to the yard and store it.  You'd have to transfer the coal to the locomotive.  You'd have to remove the ashes from the locomotive and haul them off somewhere for disposal.  You'd still have to haul with and deal with water.  You'd still have to do the maintenance to keep the locomotive operating.

     What would a 10,000 ton train hauled by steam locomotives look like?  Perhaps like five 2,000 ton trains hauled by steam locomotives.

     There's a reason that steam was replaced by diesel.  Steam was near the end of its development.  Diesel was at the beginning of its development.  It the same reason that F-14 Tomcats aren't powered by Merlin engines with a 4 blade prop.  Time marches on.  I'm sure the coming of the railroads sent a fair amount of perfectly good horses and oxen prematurely to the auction barn as well.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    August 2005
  • From: At the Crossroads of the West
  • 11,013 posts
Posted by Deggesty on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:15 AM

As Norris said, the logistics of providing fuel and water for steam power--and disposing of the residue of combustion would be almost overwhelming. How much fuel can be carried in a tender? Some roads, such as the N&W used "canteens" to reduce the number of water stops; others had the locomotives pick water up from between the tracks (and spread water on the right of way). It may have been that multiple control of steam engines would have been developed, just as multiple control of diesel engines was developed. These matters, as well as the matter of maintaining the shops would have had to be considered.

 

Johnny

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:21 AM
tree68

  Labor agreements notwithstanding, it takes X people to do Y function.   If the railroad can get rid of function Y, they can get rid of X people... 

The railroads have demonstrated that it is not always easy to get rid of the people after getting rid of the function.  Diesel “firemen” was a great example.  Cabooses, crew size, telegraphers and operators, and depots are other examples.  With union labor, getting rid of people is fought by the unions whether the labor is needed for a function or not.  
So it is not necessarily true that if the railroads could have figured out ways to reduce labor in steam maintenance and repair, they would have done so.  Where is the motivation to do it if the unions won’t let you get rid of the labor that is no longer needed after reducing steam maintenance?  
Not only would be hard to get rid of steam labor it if were not needed, but also due to the same dynamic, labor may have been allowed to expand beyond actual need as the steam age progressed.  
I suggest that getting rid of steam may have been an extreme decision for the purpose of getting rid of the steam labor that could not have been reduced otherwise simply by reducing the need for maintenance and repair.
It would be hardest for the unions to argue that steam labor is needed when you have no steam.  Although they did argue that in the case of the steam firemen. 
  • Member since
    November 2003
  • From: Rhode Island
  • 2,289 posts
Posted by carnej1 on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:21 AM

Miningman

 If diesels were so much cheaper to run then why did steam hang on into the seventies, eighties and nineties in Eastern Europe, even Germany, India, China and much of the third world?

 Because those countries had lots of cheap labor and coal reserves...

 

Steam has been acknowledged as easier to maintain. 

I Can't let that go unchallenged: Prove it...

 

"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock

  • Member since
    March 2016
  • From: Burbank IL (near Clearing)
  • 13,540 posts
Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 12:04 PM

Bucky's anti-union rant seems to disregard the fact that a lot of shopcraft labor related to the maintenance of steam locomotives was laid off in the 1950's.

The daily commute is part of everyday life but I get two rides a day out of it. Paul
  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 12:22 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH

Bucky's anti-union rant seems to disregard the fact that a lot of shopcraft labor related to the maintenance of steam locomotives was laid off in the 1950's.

 

 

How does what I said about unions and steam mainentance disregard the fact that shop labor was laid off in the 1950?  That does not conflict with what I said.  It confirms it.

  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 9,610 posts
Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 12:32 PM

CSSHEGEWISCH

Bucky's anti-union rant seems to disregard the fact that a lot of shopcraft labor related to the maintenance of steam locomotives was laid off in the 1950's.

 

I have also read that the skills needed for steam maintenance were becoming more and more scarce.  Partly this is because of the lack of standardization and need to hand craft replacement components from scratch.  Couple that with some good points made by another poster about how labor intensive steam was (changing driver tires, replacing steam drive components vs swapping out a prime mover in diesel.  But the motivation about cutting maintenance costs went way beyond getting rid of union labor, since obviously diesel maintenance labor was also union. Bucky simply cannot resist getting in one of his obsessive 'anti' rants, whether it be anti-union, anti-government or anti-reality.

So many of the changes on the rails post-war were painful adjustments to economic and technological changes, far beyond the dislocations attributed to over-regulation.

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

  • Member since
    December 2005
  • From: Cardiff, CA
  • 2,930 posts
Posted by erikem on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 2:46 PM

zugmann

I would like to think that events in a time line are normally not independent of each other. The railroads dieselized due to events leading up to that decision.  So, if railroads never dieselized, then can we not assume those events that led up to said decision are also altered?  Then if so, how can we make any conclusion whether the railroads would have survived or not?  We would be looking at an alternate time line without knowing all the other events that would happen before and, more importantly, after the question to dieselize became relevant.  Unless are we assuming diesel technology never would have even existed at all in this alternate time line?

Pretty much my take on the original question. The advantages of the internal combustion engine (ICE) over the steam engine for land transportation where clear enough that internal combustion locomotives would have prevailed in the railroad industry over steamers even if GM never exsted. The internal combustion engine also made autos and trucks a lot more practical than they would have been with batteries or steam. Without ICE powered cars and trucks, the railroads would have been in a different competitive environment and steam locomotives might not have been a disadvantage - but the electric interurbans would likely have been more successful than they were.

Blue Streak

The Milw cantenary was 24' above the rails wherever possible, though tunnels would have been an issue for plate H. The Milw did lower floors on the PCE tunnels in the early 1960's to allow for tri-level auto carriers.

 - Erik

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 4:00 PM

erikem
 
zugmann

I would like to think that events in a time line are normally not independent of each other. The railroads dieselized due to events leading up to that decision.  So, if railroads never dieselized, then can we not assume those events that led up to said decision are also altered?  Then if so, how can we make any conclusion whether the railroads would have survived or not?  We would be looking at an alternate time line without knowing all the other events that would happen before and, more importantly, after the question to dieselize became relevant.  Unless are we assuming diesel technology never would have even existed at all in this alternate time line? 

Pretty much my take on the original question. The advantages of the internal combustion engine (ICE) over the steam engine for land transportation where clear enough that internal combustion locomotives would have prevailed in the railroad industry over steamers even if GM never exsted. The internal combustion engine also made autos and trucks a lot more practical than they would have been with batteries or steam. Without ICE powered cars and trucks, the railroads would have been in a different competitive environment and steam locomotives might not have been a disadvantage - but the electric interurbans would likely have been more successful than they were.

Blue Streak

The Milw cantenary was 24' above the rails wherever possible, though tunnels would have been an issue for plate H. The Milw did lower floors on the PCE tunnels in the early 1960's to allow for tri-level auto carriers.

 - Erik

The tri-levels of the 60's were not as high as the 19'2" and 20'2" multilevels that are normal today.

If steam was such a 'success' why did the steam driven automobiles disappear well before the steam locomotive.  Steam, in the right situations has it's place in the world - tranportation is no longer that place. 

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Canterlot
  • 9,575 posts
Posted by zugmann on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 7:39 PM

Euclid
How does what I said about unions and steam mainentance disregard the fact that shop labor was laid off in the 1950? That does not conflict with what I said. It confirms it.

 

The way you shape and distort your arguments - nothing anyone can say will ever conflict what you say. 

You basically said the railroads dieselized to save a lot of labor costs because if they didn't dieslize, then they wouldn't have been able to save a far lesser amount on labor costs?

Here. Have your ribbon.  You win the internets today.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

  • Member since
    December 2009
  • 1,751 posts
Posted by dakotafred on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 7:55 PM

I can't believe the hostility on here to "Bucky" -- the insulting name of some clever posters -- and his self-evident truths about the gross overstaffing from which railroading used to suffer.

Firemen? Give me a break. One hundred-mile workdays? Give me a break. Four- and five-man crews that used to be reinforced by state law? Give me a break. Cabooses, which have probably crippled more railroaders than derailments? Again, give me a break.

This is not to say that railroaders of today don't earn their money. Rather that, if unions had had their way in the turbulent 1950s, '60s and '70s, most railroaders wouldn't have any jobs at all. Not on the railroad, anyway.

  • Member since
    December 2005
  • From: Cardiff, CA
  • 2,930 posts
Posted by erikem on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:10 PM

BaltACD

 The tri-levels of the 60's were not as high as the 19'2" and 20'2" multilevels that are normal today.

 

I did know that the tri-levels aren't as high as a double stack, my point was that the Milwaukee did some work in improving clearances on electrified lines. Whether it was feasible to modify the tunnels to allow 20'2" multilevels is something I can't answer authoritatively.

 - Erik

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:17 PM

erikem
 
BaltACD

 The tri-levels of the 60's were not as high as the 19'2" and 20'2" multilevels that are normal today.

 

 

I did know that the tri-levels aren't as high as a double stack, my point was that the Milwaukee did some work in improving clearances on electrified lines. Whether it was feasible to modify the tunnels to allow 20'2" multilevels is something I can't answer authoritatively.

 - Erik

20'2" multi-levels is one thing, 20'2" stacks are another.  Multi-levels are narrower at the 20'2" height than stacks.  My carrier and NS have been 'notching' tunnels to permit the 20'2" stacks.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Canterlot
  • 9,575 posts
Posted by zugmann on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:19 PM

dakotafred
I can't believe the hostility on here to "Bucky" -- the insulting name of some clever posters -- and his self-evident truths about the gross overstaffing from which railroading used to suffer.

 

Bucky isn't an insult.  Just his past username.  Besides, he can hold his own. 

 

The railroad was a different beast in years past.  We have reduced crew sizes now (like every industry), but the number of yards and industries have also been greatly reduced.  It's hard (all but damned near impossible) to compare opertaions of today to  yesteryear.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 9,610 posts
Posted by schlimm on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:30 PM

dakotafred

I can't believe the hostility on here to "Bucky" -- the insulting name of some clever posters -- and his self-evident truths about the gross overstaffing from which railroading used to suffer.

Firemen? Give me a break. One hundred-mile workdays? Give me a break. Four- and five-man crews that used to be reinforced by state law? Give me a break. Cabooses, which have probably crippled more railroaders than derailments? Again, give me a break.

This is not to say that railroaders of today don't earn their money. Rather that, if unions had had their way in the turbulent 1950s, '60s and '70s, most railroaders wouldn't have any jobs at all. Not on the railroad, anyway.

 

Bucyrus "Bucky" Euclid doesn't need ay help, but you just cannot resist another anti-union, anti-labor snarkiness.

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

  • Member since
    December 2009
  • 1,751 posts
Posted by dakotafred on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:39 PM

schlimm
 
dakotafred

I can't believe the hostility on here to "Bucky" -- the insulting name of some clever posters -- and his self-evident truths about the gross overstaffing from which railroading used to suffer.

Firemen? Give me a break. One hundred-mile workdays? Give me a break. Four- and five-man crews that used to be reinforced by state law? Give me a break. Cabooses, which have probably crippled more railroaders than derailments? Again, give me a break.

This is not to say that railroaders of today don't earn their money. Rather that, if unions had had their way in the turbulent 1950s, '60s and '70s, most railroaders wouldn't have any jobs at all. Not on the railroad, anyway.

 

 

 

Bucyrus "Bucky" Euclid doesn't need ay help, but you just cannot resist another anti-union, anti-labor snarkiness.

 

"Another"? Show us the first.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:42 PM
zugmann
 
dakotafred
I can't believe the hostility on here to "Bucky" -- the insulting name of some clever posters -- and his self-evident truths about the gross overstaffing from which railroading used to suffer.

 

 

Bucky isn't an insult.  Just his past username.  Besides, he can hold his own. 

 

The railroad was a different beast in years past.  We have reduced crew sizes now (like every industry), but the number of yards and industries have also been greatly reduced.  It's hard (all but damned near impossible) to compare opertaions of today to  yesteryear.

 

To your earlier comment above about what I said about eliminating labor of steam maintenance and repair:  First of all, this is the unions and operations of yesteryear that I was referring to as affecting the decision to dieselize.  It was the early 1950s.
But to the point of your point about what I said about that:
I said that the railroads dieselized to save labor cost.  I think everyone agrees with that. I see two issues related to that:

1)   The actual task of maintaining steam power based on steam locomotives  and maintenance practice.

2)   The labor force built up to accomplish that task.

 
I am suggesting that the labor force may have been overbuilt for the task due to unions resisting job elimination resulting from streamlining the maintenance. 
Then I added that the saving of labor cost may not have come as much from eliminating the actual task of maintaining steam as it did from eliminating redundant labor that had grown to an excessive level due to unions always fighting to keep jobs regardless of whether they are necessary.  I cited the firemen on diesels as an example.  Labor gets eliminated either way, but there are two different reasons for it. 
My larger point is that rather than fight the unions to make the steam crafts more efficient and requiring less labor, the railroads may have thought it easier to just wipe out the entire steam power realm and beat the unions that way; rather than to fight little battles over each craft job in the maintenance and repair shops.
It is just a possibility as we look at all of the reasons that went into the decision to dieselize.     
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:35 PM

Laugh  Some folks would suggest that the only reason railroads transistioned from steam to diesel was to get rid of a bunch of union labor.  And to think that it's been 60+ years since this diabolic plan was put in place and only one individual has caught on to them.  And they probably would have gotten away with it if it hadn't been for those meddling kids!

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:46 PM
Murphy Siding

Laugh  Some folks would suggest that the only reason railroads transistioned from steam to diesel was to get rid of a bunch of union labor.  And to think that it's been 60+ years since this diabolic plan was put in place and only one individual has caught on to them.  And they probably would have gotten away with it if it hadn't been for those meddling kids!

 
Well you all are the ones enshrining the reason for dieselization being the high cost of labor to maintain it.  That is all we heard up to this point.  So then I elaborate on it a bit, and now you change your tune, and decide it is a conspiracy theory. 
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:02 PM

    About the last 350 books and magazine articles about steam locomotives going away seem to suggest that it was all about the economics of the equipment, most of it having to do with labor.  Somehow you've now uncovered a plot to eliminate labor unions that everyone else has somehow overlooked.  So please, elaborate away.  You are free to explain your theories any way that makes sense to you.  Have a ball.

      Won't we feel dumb when all those diesels are put back in the boxes and replaced with new, shiny, labor efficient steam locomotives?

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    September 2013
  • 6,199 posts
Posted by Miningman on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:24 PM

Murphy Siding- ummm, yah! That could happen, the world can change and turn on a dime. I picture a 6-8-8-6 duplex drive hauling a 120 car double stack along the shores of Lake Erie emitting nothing more than water vapour verses 4 diesels with their carcinogenic particulate exhaust. That is what this thread has been about...could it have happened? Maybe it will yet. One breakthrough is all that is needed. The rest falls into place. 

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:37 PM
Murphy Siding

    About the last 350 books and magazine articles about steam locomotives going away seem to suggest that it was all about the economics of the equipment, most of it having to do with labor.  Somehow you've now uncovered a plot to eliminate labor unions that everyone else has somehow overlooked.  

 
Okay, so dieselization was all about labor; there was too much labor.  And labor unions just happen to be about labor; the more labor, the better.  Nobody has said anything about eliminating labor unions except for you accusing me of saying that.  But there has been plenty of friction between railroad management and unions over the elimination of jobs.  Or do you think that is just another conspiracy theory?  Diesels with firemen became a running joke in that era.  So I don’t know how you can consider the labor saving of dieselization and then think it is farfetched to suggest that labor unions played a part in that drama.  How many other shop jobs related to steam were carried over into the diesel era without need, as was the job of firemen?    
  • Member since
    December 2005
  • From: Cardiff, CA
  • 2,930 posts
Posted by erikem on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 11:52 PM

BaltACD

 20'2" multi-levels is one thing, 20'2" stacks are another.  Multi-levels are narrower at the 20'2" height than stacks.  My carrier and NS have been 'notching' tunnels to permit the 20'2" stacks.

 

 
Got it - I was confusing multilevels with double stacks.
 
Kinda think that there would be a limited benefit (or less benefit) from 'notching' a tunnel with an overhead wire due to the necessary clearance between the wire in tunnel roof as well as the clearance between the wire and the tops of the cars. The Milwaukee's approach was to eave the top alone and lower the floor. Whether that could be extended to accomodate 20'2" double stacks is an open question.
 
 - Erik 
  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, January 13, 2016 7:19 AM

Euclid
 
The railroads have demonstrated that it is not always easy to get rid of the people after getting rid of the function.  Diesel “firemen” was a great example.  Cabooses, crew size, telegraphers and operators, and depots are other examples.  With union labor, getting rid of people is fought by the unions whether the labor is needed for a function or not.  
So it is not necessarily true that if the railroads could have figured out ways to reduce labor in steam maintenance and repair, they would have done so.  Where is the motivation to do it if the unions won’t let you get rid of the labor that is no longer needed after reducing steam maintenance?  
Not only would be hard to get rid of steam labor it if were not needed, but also due to the same dynamic, labor may have been allowed to expand beyond actual need as the steam age progressed.  
I suggest that getting rid of steam may have been an extreme decision for the purpose of getting rid of the steam labor that could not have been reduced otherwise simply by reducing the need for maintenance and repair.
It would be hardest for the unions to argue that steam labor is needed when you have no steam.  Although they did argue that in the case of the steam firemen. 
 

   Then there are those folks who are so indecisive in their views, but still need to defend those views as being... *right*... no matter what.  That need goes so far as to constantly reinterpret those views to fit whatever they're supposed to mean today.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, January 13, 2016 7:23 AM

Miningman

Murphy Siding- ummm, yah! That could happen, the world can change and turn on a dime. I picture a 6-8-8-6 duplex drive hauling a 120 car double stack along the shores of Lake Erie emitting nothing more than water vapour verses 4 diesels with their carcinogenic particulate exhaust. That is what this thread has been about...could it have happened? Maybe it will yet. One breakthrough is all that is needed. The rest falls into place. 

 

  You're discounting the contibutions of one Doc Brown.  Had the scenario unfolded as described by the OP, everything would have leaned toward favoring trucks over steam powered trains.  Then, in 1955 Doc Brown would have adapted his flux capacitor for railroad use.  "When this baby gets up to 88 Jigawatts, you're going to see some serious freight hauling!!!". 

(Sorry man- the Devil made me do it!)

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 9,610 posts
Posted by schlimm on Wednesday, January 13, 2016 7:26 AM

Murphy Siding

Laugh  Some folks would suggest that the only reason railroads transistioned from steam to diesel was to get rid of a bunch of union labor.  And to think that it's been 60+ years since this diabolic plan was put in place and only one individual has caught on to them.  And they probably would have gotten away with it if it hadn't been for those meddling kids!

 

Blogs tend to attract conspiracy theorists.  Railroad blogs tend to attract ant-labor union types. 

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Wednesday, January 13, 2016 7:51 AM

     I've read quite a few books about counter-factual history.  A lot of them well written and thought provoking.  Most are written in chapter form, with perhaps a dozen chapters, each with it's own, related, counter-factual question.  A series of chapters about the American Civil War might have chapter titles like:  What if the war didn't reunite the union?  What if Britain allied itself with the south?  What if Lincoln hadn't been re-elected? etc.. Good couterfactual books are typically written by historians- good ones, who do a lot of research.

     To jump much beyond make-believe, a counterfactual discussion needs to have a definative shelf life.  For example, what if JFK hadn't gone to Dallas?  From that point on, everything else is still heading down the same highway, but now the world is different based on that one event that happened differently.

     With that perspective, I'd suggest railroads would be about where they are now, but the path to get to here would be somewhat different than it took.

     Since diesels were being developed since early in the century, it's safe to say they would have replaced steam eventually.  Perhaps, given a longer gestation period, the bugs would have been worked out earlier in smaller doses. The first generation may have been 100 odd units working to perfect the product.  The second generation diesel may have run off all the steam in  a very short time.

      If GM pushed hard to get all the rail traffic pushed to trucks, I din't think they would have succeeded too far.  Then as now, we need the railroads to haul big quantities of bulk materials economically.  Even with an overabundance of trucks, once all the low hanging fruit was gone, the existing roads would be clogged to a standstill and the railroads would still be hauling freight.

      Pehaps the scenario we're speaking of would have caused something along the Staggers Act to have shown up around 1950?  Faced with the prospect of trying to raise enough tax money to build the comprehensive road network that a bazillion trucks would immediately require, right after the most expensive war in history might not have gone over well with the public.  Suddenly the idea of letting the railroad compete with less control looks pretty promising.  We might have missed out on PennCentral and ConRail.

     In the end, we can only squint our eyes, and theorize on what would have happened if one detail of history had changed, we have to look at it from a historical perspective, based on what else was going on, and what else went on, starting at our little fork in the road.

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy