tommyboy I think that realistically the likelihood of an industry-wide shutdown is very remote. I suspect, especially with the Senate already having passed legislation to extend the deadline three years (and the House due to hold hearings next month), in part the railroads are using the specter of a nationwide shutdown as a way to put pressure on Congress. Anyone who was around in the 1970s knows the federal government does not like having the railroad industry shutdown, regardless of the issues involved. A shutdown does incredible damage to the national economy and must be avoided if at all possible.
I think that realistically the likelihood of an industry-wide shutdown is very remote. I suspect, especially with the Senate already having passed legislation to extend the deadline three years (and the House due to hold hearings next month), in part the railroads are using the specter of a nationwide shutdown as a way to put pressure on Congress. Anyone who was around in the 1970s knows the federal government does not like having the railroad industry shutdown, regardless of the issues involved. A shutdown does incredible damage to the national economy and must be avoided if at all possible.
It seems, for the past decade or more, Congress has prided itself in writing unrealistic and in many cases unenforceable legislation. Congress (lobbyists) write the bills - they have no idea of the mechanics of applying and enforcing the legislation, let alone what needs to be done for one to comply.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
I remember a single-pane comic in a pocket-sized book of such comics my brother had when I was a kid (60 years ago... just to put it in context). It was was of two men in pinstriped suits and fedora hats, carrying briefcases, walking away from the Capitol building... one says to the other:
"I'd sure hate to have to go out and make a living under the laws we just passed."
Semper Vaporo
Pkgs.
If Congress simply is forced to back down and grant an extension, you can bet that they will not admit that the reason is to correct their own mistake. Instead, they will heap blame upon the industry for not complying with the mandate. Most of the public will gladly accept that explanation. So the railroad industry will be left with an extension and a huge black eye.
Congress, more specifically the House, will grant the extension. Nothing will happen that the public can detect. It will be a 15 sec update on the evening news, quickly followed by a 5 min piece on the latest bizzare quote from the Donald. The "public" won't understand or care. Life will go on. PTC will be delployed later rather than sooner.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
tommyboyThat was Helena Williams' point: the technology is not off-the-shelf, it can't be just 'ordered.' It has to be custom designed for each carrier. There is an immense amount of work that goes into designing positive train control systems and, unlike one-hundred years ago, most railroads (especially LIRR) no longer have the engineering staff available to do this. The work has to be bid out and there is a lengthy procurement process that must be followed. There has to be testing and it has not always gone smoothly. I've been following LIRR's efforts via the monthly meeting minutes they post on the MTA website and they have been working at implementing PTC for several years now. It's very complex.
Lame. That's a valid argument for the freight railroads, where no system existed that would work for them at scale. For LIRR, maybe no one was actually making ACSES equipment in 2008, but the system existed, and it's proven to work. I see trains operating under it almost every day. Changing a few signal aspects for LIRR's bizarre non-standard signalling system, that, like everything else on the railroad, is arse-backwards, shouldn't be THAT hard.
One idea I would like to correct is, that there is a possibility that the railroad industry as a whole (or a big part of it) may still get PTC in place before the December 31, 2015 deadline. That's not going to happen. In discussing this on another message board two months ago, a member of Amtrak's engineering staff said, only three carriers are currently on schedule to be fully PTC-compliant by the year end deadline.
One is Amtrak:
We remain on schedule to complete the full activation of PTC in the Northeast Corridor—including Frankford Junction—in accordance with the federal deadline of December 31, 2015.
Another is southern California's MetroLink (which is already PTC-compliant and has been since this past June):
Metrolink launched Positive Train Control (PTC) in Revenue Service Demonstration (RSD) across the entire 341-mile network the agency owns earlier this month [June 2015]. With this latest accomplishment, Metrolink becomes the first railroad in the nation to have PTC running during regular service on all of its hosted lines and remains on track to become the nation’s first passenger rail system to have a fully operational, interoperable, and certified PTC system in place.
And Septa. From their website:
SEPTA is positioned to successfully implement PTC in compliance with the law, barring any unforeseen technical challenges or concerns that arise during testing.
http://www.septa.org/media/short/2015/07-08.html
If any other railroads or commuter agencies are predicting they will meet the federal deadline I'd be interested in knowing it, but I don't think there are any others.
The PTC "extension" passed by the Senate was to give the administration the ability to extend the deadline by up to 3 years. It was done at the request of the administration. That would be the appropriate place for it, as the FRA could work out a timetable with each RR for PTC initiation. Each side could sign consent agreements with stipulated penalties for missing the agreed upon deadlines. This would also get the legislatures off the hook. The problem is that the PTC issue was just a small part of the Senate bill which was a transportation package. They sent it to the House, but Congress has not passed a transportation bill in many years, choosing instead to pass continuing resolutions to keep current laws in effect.
Are we sure the bill to extend the PTC deadline to at least 2018 is part of a major transportation bill? My understanding is that it is not. The bill the Senate passed, S. 650, introduced by Sen. Roy Blunt (R. MO), is specific to the Positive Train Control deadline. This is how the bill reads (in part):
- S. 650: Railroad Safety and Positive Train Control Extension Act- Revises the railroad safety risk reduction program. Extends from December 31, 2015, to December 31, 2020, the deadline for submission to the Secretary of Transportation by each Class I railroad carrier and each entity providing regularly scheduled intercity or commuter rail passenger transportation of a plan for implementing a positive train control (PTC) system on certain of its tracks.
Congress should provide a responsible deadline extension to 2018 to deploy all the necessary equipment and outfit the locomotive fleet. Then, an additional two years are needed for testing and validation that the nationwide system is properly working in all regions. The adjusted timeline would give railroads the critical time needed to test, approve and install the highly complex system necessary for the safe and correct use of this sophsticated technology.​
tommyboy Are we sure the bill to extend the PTC deadline to at least 2018 is part of a major transportation bill? My understanding is that it is not. The bill the Senate passed, S. 650, introduced by Sen. Roy Blunt (R. MO), is specific to the Positive Train Control deadline...
Are we sure the bill to extend the PTC deadline to at least 2018 is part of a major transportation bill? My understanding is that it is not. The bill the Senate passed, S. 650, introduced by Sen. Roy Blunt (R. MO), is specific to the Positive Train Control deadline...
Apparently that bill was folded into the 1000 page transportation bill:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/24/us/senate-to-consider-delaying-rail-safety-mandate.html?_r=0
The bill also includes things like continuing the Export Import Bank, which is opposed by many in Congress. Plus Congress has many other critical bills in the final months of 2015.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2015/0730/Senate-passes-transportation-bill
And that's a problem with Congress any more. They can't seem to act on a bill on its own merits - they have to try to load unpopular items in with popular items in hopes the unpopular stuff will pass along with the popular stuff.
Taken by itself, and on its own merits, extending PTC would seem to be a no-brainer, given what's been related here regarding the difficulties the project is facing. But, no...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tommyboyAre we sure the bill to extend the PTC deadline to at least 2018 is part of a major transportation bill? My understanding is that it is not.
http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-transportation/2015/09/150915-pro-morning-transpo-210209
It's a bit of a mess....
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Don I appreciate the link you provided. Very interesting. A couple of quotes:
Our Lauren Gardner and Pro Agriculture’s Bill Tomson report that “lawmakers' preferred solution — sticking an extension into a long-term transportation bill — won't happen in time...Senate Commerce Chairman John Thune didn't dismiss adding an extension to a short-term highway and transit bill, which is due by the end of October. Thune said, "Because otherwise, if we don't get this addressed before the end of the year, we're going to have a pretty big disaster on our hands."...Railroads have tried hard in recent days to convey just how sizable that disaster would be.
Thune said, "Because otherwise, if we don't get this addressed before the end of the year, we're going to have a pretty big disaster on our hands."...Railroads have tried hard in recent days to convey just how sizable that disaster would be.
One way or another I guess we'll find out.
Congress has had a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Hey, Congress. We need one little law passed (or resolution, or whatever it takes). Doesn't need to be part of another law, or resolution, or anything else.
Just a little ditty with the appropriate verbiage to extend the deadline. Might be all of one page - easy reading.
Probably take five minutes in each house.
tree68 Hey, Congress. We need one little law passed (or resolution, or whatever it takes). Doesn't need to be part of another law, or resolution, or anything else. Just a little ditty with the appropriate verbiage to extend the deadline. Might be all of one page - easy reading. Probably take five minutes in each house.
Nothing takes 5 minutes in Congress. Can you imagine how long it would take for them to agree to a place to go for lunch?
I cannot imagine the FRA being that stupid not being able to predict possible outcome. Blind sided by the possibility ?? WTF !
Why bother this political appointee who has absolutely no clue with these questions?
You, both houses of Congress wrote the law. So instead why not say to her that we will fix it and relieve you of any stress. If we did that you, political appointee, may go on with more simple things.
The FRA is staffed with more than just Sara. Does she not speak to her staff ?
Randy,
I do believe that the FRA was indeed blindsided by the sudden development that the railroads intend to shut down because the law requires it. The FRA was looking at the law too narrowly and focused only on the fact that the law allows fines. The FRA thought that had the railroads in a box, but the sudden prospect of the mandate forcing a shutdown has placed the FRA into the same box they have the railroads in.
wanswheel In the absence of an extension it’s still entirely up to the President whether railroads will be fined or not. There's no way he's so dumb he's going to allow a railroad crisis to ruin his last year in office.
wanswheel There’s no question the fines are at the discretion of the Secretary of Transportation, in the language of the law. “The Secretary is authorized to assess civil penalties…” Without the fines, obeying to the letter the 2008 law just to prove it’s their policy would be senseless. In the immortal words of Deep Throat, follow the money. Railroads crave revenue more than they fear lawsuits.
1) To avoid the fines.
2) To avoid the extra liability in case of an accident with non-compliant operations.
3) To avoid breaking the law.
Euclid wanswheel There’s no question the fines are at the discretion of the Secretary of Transportation, in the language of the law. “The Secretary is authorized to assess civil penalties…” Without the fines, obeying to the letter the 2008 law just to prove it’s their policy would be senseless. In the immortal words of Deep Throat, follow the money. Railroads crave revenue more than they fear lawsuits. Well, there are three possible reasons to shut down non-compliant operations after the deadline. 1) To avoid the fines. 2) To avoid the extra liability in case of an accident with non-compliant operations. 3) To avoid breaking the law. Railroads have cited all three reasons for their intent to shut down. Are you saying that waiving the fines would be sufficient to convince the railroads to not shut down? If that were sufficient, what are they waiting for? Obama has said that he is in favor of extending the deadline because it cannot be met. If the FRA has the sole discretion as to whether to levy fines, but will announce an intent to not levy fines; why would railroads go ahead and operate under the default presumption that they will be fined?
#1 is the smallest problem. It's #2 and #3 that are the real sticking points.
Think of the position you'd put an engineer in telling him to take a non-PTC equipped train out on "day one". Locomotive engineers can be liable for their negligence in an accident. Managment can't order people to break the law.
The legal deadline has to be extended somehow and the "fine" has to become some sort of non-compliance fee or tax, or a fine for "lack of progress".
wanswheel Railroads crave revenue more than they fear lawsuits.
I don't think so. Fear of lawsuits is pretty large...
EuclidI do believe that the FRA was indeed blindsided by the sudden development that the railroads intend to shut down because the law requires it.
You tend to think everything is a "surprise" to other groups because its a surprise to you. The railroads and the FRA have been discussing the need for an extension and the implications of not having an extension for years. The vast majority of people who work for the FRA have worked for the railroads. Even if they didn't talk, the FRA would have an idea of how railroads think and would know what the options the railroads would have. There is no advantage to the railroads or the FRA to engage in "gotcha".
dehusman Euclid I do believe that the FRA was indeed blindsided by the sudden development that the railroads intend to shut down because the law requires it. You tend to think everything is a "surprise" to other groups because its a surprise to you. The railroads and the FRA have been discussing the need for an extension and the implications of not having an extension for years. The vast majority of people who work for the FRA have worked for the railroads. Even if they didn't talk, the FRA would have an idea of how railroads think and would know what the options the railroads would have. There is no advantage to the railroads or the FRA to engage in "gotcha".
Euclid I do believe that the FRA was indeed blindsided by the sudden development that the railroads intend to shut down because the law requires it.
It has nothing to do with me. I am not sure to what extent the FRA was blindsided. It may be more accurate to say that Congress was. In any case, while the government and railroads may have been discussing this for years, the government is in the hot seat now, and I doubt they would be there had they seen it coming.
I have no idea what you mean when you say there is no advantage to the railroads or the FRA to engage in "gothcha."
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