[quote user="schlimm"]
Euclid schlimm Some folks are very uncomfortable with or embarrassed by the cause of this accident creating a state of internal cognitive dissonance which they try to relieve by ridiculing what has been obvious since Day 1, rather than present us with any factual alternative theory. I was referring to the response prior to yours, concerning you.
schlimm Some folks are very uncomfortable with or embarrassed by the cause of this accident creating a state of internal cognitive dissonance which they try to relieve by ridiculing what has been obvious since Day 1, rather than present us with any factual alternative theory.
Some folks are very uncomfortable with or embarrassed by the cause of this accident creating a state of internal cognitive dissonance which they try to relieve by ridiculing what has been obvious since Day 1, rather than present us with any factual alternative theory.
[quote user="Euclid"]
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Too darn many unknowns to make any judgement at this point. I guess I'll just wait for the NTSB report.
Norm
A problem with the projectile through the maybe open side window, as with all the projectile theories, is that the projectile then should still be in the locomotive cab, and I'd be very surprised that the investigators would be keeping that secret till they're done since they've released so much info already.
And yes, I acknowledge that it's possible something could have come into the cab and bounced back out, but I don't think, and hope noone else thinks, that it's likely.
Patrick Boylan
Free yacht rides, 27' sailboat, zip code 19114 Delaware River, get great Delair bridge photos from the river. Send me a private message
Unanswered questions of mine -
How much force does it take to advance the throttle on the locomotive type involved in the incident?
Is the throttle notched or infinately variable?
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Belongs on the Transit forum, where it will be much much appreciated. But yes it does matter what the engineer was thinking or unable to think. If he was stunned by a projectile or even if he was distracted by a projectile, then the deaths of the victims were caused by whoever launched the projectile. If, on the other hand, he was simply lax in remembering the railroad and its restrictions, without any major distraction, then he is clearly at fault. So it does matter.
On the simulator Amatrak uses to educate engineers in train handling, are they prepared for such projectiles? I doubt that they have been and maybe they should be.
zardoz Here is an interesting maps of the route Amtrak uses: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/24/upshot/100000003729112.app.html
Here is an interesting maps of the route Amtrak uses:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/06/24/upshot/100000003729112.app.html
19th Century engineering meets 21st Century speed expectations.
jeffhergert For those that want to remove the human element (substitute machines for people) it's enough to know that it was human failure.
For those that want to remove the human element (substitute machines for people) it's enough to know that it was human failure.
And in the end, does it really matter what the engineer was thinking about? What matters ,if this is the actual cause, is he wasn't thinking about where he was and what he was doing. Any solution won't be to stop an engineer from thinking about something else, it will be about how does the engineer keep his head in the game without the solution becoming a distraction itself.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
One picture of the locomotive appears to show that the engineer's side window is down - was it down during the incident? was it put down after the incident? I don't know!
Both sides of the windshield show evidence of impacts with foreign objects. Experience tells me that 'rockers' are rarely single individuals - they are packs of juvinles acting in concert. It is not byond the relm of possibility that IF the side window was down the Engineer could have been struck by a foreign object and knocked from his feet, pushing the throttle on the way down - losing his senses momentarily, regaining his senses within a minute, seeing where he was and applying the brakes in emergency. I do not know if such a foreign object impact would have necessarily left a mark that could be distinguished from the other injuries that then Engineer sustained in the resulting crash.
THIS IS A THEORY AND A THEORY ONLY!
rfpjohn It is easy enough to conclude it was the engineer's failure to comply with the posted speed which caused the wreck. What has yet to be determined, and may never be determined, is why he was speeding. Spuyten Duyvil was found to have resulted from the engineer's inability to stay awake due to a sleep disorder. Unless investigators can pry open this engineer's head or his memory returns, the cause will remain a mystery.
It is easy enough to conclude it was the engineer's failure to comply with the posted speed which caused the wreck. What has yet to be determined, and may never be determined, is why he was speeding. Spuyten Duyvil was found to have resulted from the engineer's inability to stay awake due to a sleep disorder. Unless investigators can pry open this engineer's head or his memory returns, the cause will remain a mystery.
Jeff
daveklepper My own experience should have suggested the more likely alternative. Have any of you planned on doing something, going to another room, etc., to get something, then suddenly some unplanned event distracts your attention, you attend to the new matter, and momentarily forget why you went to the room or whatever, and then have to make a second trip? The projectile hitting the windw might have been enogh of distraction to force unawareness of the location and forgetfulness of the planned brake application.
My own experience should have suggested the more likely alternative. Have any of you planned on doing something, going to another room, etc., to get something, then suddenly some unplanned event distracts your attention, you attend to the new matter, and momentarily forget why you went to the room or whatever, and then have to make a second trip? The projectile hitting the windw might have been enogh of distraction to force unawareness of the location and forgetfulness of the planned brake application.
Please cite an example of this, so we can understand what you are talking about.
EuclidEuclid wrote the following post 1 minute ago: BaltACD http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/blogs/david-schanoes/control-the-speed-of-the-train-period.html?channel= "I doubt that the locomotive engineer used a burner. And I don’t care. I don’t need to know. Really. I don’t need to know. We don’t need to know. I don’t need the archive from an inward facing video recorder. We don’t need to install inward facing video recorders. I know the cause of this derailment. Everybody knows the cause, except those with a vested interest in pretending the cause is yet to be discovered. This is an overspeed derailment. The cause is the failure of the locomotive engineer to properly control the speed of his train in accordance with operating rules and timetable special instructions. That really is the end of the story when it comes to cause. It’s the beginning of the story, unfortunately an old story, when it comes to prevention. What is a locomotive engineer? An employee of the railroad who is responsible for operating the equipment providing tractive effort in accordance with the rules and requirements for safe train operations, the employee responsible for controlling the speed of the train. That’s what a locomotive engineer does; that’s why the job classification, and the requirements for training, certification and oversight exist. Control the speed of the train." David Schanoes is Principal of Ten90 Solutions LLC, a consulting firm he established upon retiring from MTA Metro-North Railroad in 2008. David began his railroad career in 1972 with the Chicago & North Western, as a brakeman in Chicago. He came to New York 1977, working for Conrail’s New Jersey Division. David joined Metro-North in 1985. He has spent his entire career in the operating division, working his way up from brakeman to conductor, block operator, dispatcher, supervisor of train operations, trainmaster, superintendent, and deputy chief of field operations. “Better railroading is ten percent planning plus ninety percent execution,” he says. “It’s simple math. Yet, we also know, or should know, that technology is no substitute for supervision, and supervision that doesn’t utilize technology isn’t going to do the job. That's not so simple.” BaltACD: Bucky has a name now! Don't confuse me with any facts that may be discovered in the investigation, my mind is made up! Euclid: What are you talking about? What on earth does the quote by Schanoes have to do with anything I have said? I will give you the benefit of the doubt assuming that you have simply misunderstood me. If the train accelerated because the engineer opened the throttle, then he is at fault.
BaltACD http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/blogs/david-schanoes/control-the-speed-of-the-train-period.html?channel= "I doubt that the locomotive engineer used a burner. And I don’t care. I don’t need to know. Really. I don’t need to know. We don’t need to know. I don’t need the archive from an inward facing video recorder. We don’t need to install inward facing video recorders. I know the cause of this derailment. Everybody knows the cause, except those with a vested interest in pretending the cause is yet to be discovered. This is an overspeed derailment. The cause is the failure of the locomotive engineer to properly control the speed of his train in accordance with operating rules and timetable special instructions. That really is the end of the story when it comes to cause. It’s the beginning of the story, unfortunately an old story, when it comes to prevention. What is a locomotive engineer? An employee of the railroad who is responsible for operating the equipment providing tractive effort in accordance with the rules and requirements for safe train operations, the employee responsible for controlling the speed of the train. That’s what a locomotive engineer does; that’s why the job classification, and the requirements for training, certification and oversight exist. Control the speed of the train." David Schanoes is Principal of Ten90 Solutions LLC, a consulting firm he established upon retiring from MTA Metro-North Railroad in 2008. David began his railroad career in 1972 with the Chicago & North Western, as a brakeman in Chicago. He came to New York 1977, working for Conrail’s New Jersey Division. David joined Metro-North in 1985. He has spent his entire career in the operating division, working his way up from brakeman to conductor, block operator, dispatcher, supervisor of train operations, trainmaster, superintendent, and deputy chief of field operations. “Better railroading is ten percent planning plus ninety percent execution,” he says. “It’s simple math. Yet, we also know, or should know, that technology is no substitute for supervision, and supervision that doesn’t utilize technology isn’t going to do the job. That's not so simple.”
BaltACD: Bucky has a name now! Don't confuse me with any facts that may be discovered in the investigation, my mind is made up!
Euclid: What are you talking about? What on earth does the quote by Schanoes have to do with anything I have said? I will give you the benefit of the doubt assuming that you have simply misunderstood me. If the train accelerated because the engineer opened the throttle, then he is at fault.
"Everybody knows the cause, except those with a vested interest in pretending the cause is yet to be discovered. This is an overspeed derailment. The cause is the failure of the locomotive engineer to properly control the speed of his train." Some folks are very uncomfortable with or embarrassed by the cause of this accident (or the OIG report on obscene overtime pay) creating a state of internal cognitive dissonance which they try to relieve by ridiculing what has been obvious since Day 1, rather than present us with any factual alternative theory.
BaltACD http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/blogs/david-schanoes/control-the-speed-of-the-train-period.html?channel= "I doubt that the locomotive engineer used a burner. And I don’t care. I don’t need to know. Really. I don’t need to know. We don’t need to know. I don’t need the archive from an inward facing video recorder. We don’t need to install inward facing video recorders. I know the cause of this derailment. Everybody knows the cause, except those with a vested interest in pretending the cause is yet to be discovered. This is an overspeed derailment. The cause is the failure of the locomotive engineer to properly control the speed of his train in accordance with operating rules and timetable special instructions. That really is the end of the story when it comes to cause. It’s the beginning of the story, unfortunately an old story, when it comes to prevention. What is a locomotive engineer? An employee of the railroad who is responsible for operating the equipment providing tractive effort in accordance with the rules and requirements for safe train operations, the employee responsible for controlling the speed of the train. That’s what a locomotive engineer does; that’s why the job classification, and the requirements for training, certification and oversight exist. Control the speed of the train." David Schanoes is Principal of Ten90 Solutions LLC, a consulting firm he established upon retiring from MTA Metro-North Railroad in 2008. David began his railroad career in 1972 with the Chicago & North Western, as a brakeman in Chicago. He came to New York 1977, working for Conrail’s New Jersey Division. David joined Metro-North in 1985. He has spent his entire career in the operating division, working his way up from brakeman to conductor, block operator, dispatcher, supervisor of train operations, trainmaster, superintendent, and deputy chief of field operations. “Better railroading is ten percent planning plus ninety percent execution,” he says. “It’s simple math. Yet, we also know, or should know, that technology is no substitute for supervision, and supervision that doesn’t utilize technology isn’t going to do the job. That's not so simple.” Bucky has a name now! Don't confuse me with any facts that may be discovered in the investigation, my mind is made up!
http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/blogs/david-schanoes/control-the-speed-of-the-train-period.html?channel= "I doubt that the locomotive engineer used a burner. And I don’t care. I don’t need to know. Really. I don’t need to know. We don’t need to know. I don’t need the archive from an inward facing video recorder. We don’t need to install inward facing video recorders. I know the cause of this derailment. Everybody knows the cause, except those with a vested interest in pretending the cause is yet to be discovered. This is an overspeed derailment. The cause is the failure of the locomotive engineer to properly control the speed of his train in accordance with operating rules and timetable special instructions. That really is the end of the story when it comes to cause. It’s the beginning of the story, unfortunately an old story, when it comes to prevention. What is a locomotive engineer? An employee of the railroad who is responsible for operating the equipment providing tractive effort in accordance with the rules and requirements for safe train operations, the employee responsible for controlling the speed of the train. That’s what a locomotive engineer does; that’s why the job classification, and the requirements for training, certification and oversight exist. Control the speed of the train." David Schanoes is Principal of Ten90 Solutions LLC, a consulting firm he established upon retiring from MTA Metro-North Railroad in 2008. David began his railroad career in 1972 with the Chicago & North Western, as a brakeman in Chicago. He came to New York 1977, working for Conrail’s New Jersey Division. David joined Metro-North in 1985. He has spent his entire career in the operating division, working his way up from brakeman to conductor, block operator, dispatcher, supervisor of train operations, trainmaster, superintendent, and deputy chief of field operations. “Better railroading is ten percent planning plus ninety percent execution,” he says. “It’s simple math. Yet, we also know, or should know, that technology is no substitute for supervision, and supervision that doesn’t utilize technology isn’t going to do the job. That's not so simple.”
http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/blogs/david-schanoes/control-the-speed-of-the-train-period.html?channel=
"I doubt that the locomotive engineer used a burner. And I don’t care. I don’t need to know. Really. I don’t need to know. We don’t need to know. I don’t need the archive from an inward facing video recorder. We don’t need to install inward facing video recorders. I know the cause of this derailment. Everybody knows the cause, except those with a vested interest in pretending the cause is yet to be discovered. This is an overspeed derailment. The cause is the failure of the locomotive engineer to properly control the speed of his train in accordance with operating rules and timetable special instructions. That really is the end of the story when it comes to cause. It’s the beginning of the story, unfortunately an old story, when it comes to prevention.
What is a locomotive engineer? An employee of the railroad who is responsible for operating the equipment providing tractive effort in accordance with the rules and requirements for safe train operations, the employee responsible for controlling the speed of the train. That’s what a locomotive engineer does; that’s why the job classification, and the requirements for training, certification and oversight exist. Control the speed of the train."
David Schanoes is Principal of Ten90 Solutions LLC, a consulting firm he established upon retiring from MTA Metro-North Railroad in 2008. David began his railroad career in 1972 with the Chicago & North Western, as a brakeman in Chicago. He came to New York 1977, working for Conrail’s New Jersey Division. David joined Metro-North in 1985. He has spent his entire career in the operating division, working his way up from brakeman to conductor, block operator, dispatcher, supervisor of train operations, trainmaster, superintendent, and deputy chief of field operations. “Better railroading is ten percent planning plus ninety percent execution,” he says. “It’s simple math. Yet, we also know, or should know, that technology is no substitute for supervision, and supervision that doesn’t utilize technology isn’t going to do the job. That's not so simple.”
Bucky has a name now! Don't confuse me with any facts that may be discovered in the investigation, my mind is made up!
What are you talking about? What on earth does the quote by Schanoes have to do with anything I have said? I will give you the benefit of the doubt assuming that you have simply misunderstood me. If the train accelerated because the engineer opened the throttle, then he is at fault.
When I say the NTSB will find that not to be true, do not interpret me to be cheerleading for that conclusion as though that is my theory and the NTSB will validate it for me. That is NOT what I said, nor what I mean.
It is simply my prediction about what the NTSB will conclude. It does indeed turn reality upside down, but I think that will be the result from the NTSB in this case. So my point is about the NTSB and has nothing to do with what the engineer did.
What I have said about the actual cause is that most probable explanation I have seen is that the engineer lost awareness of his location. Maybe rock throwing played a role by introducing distraction, but the “projectile” angle of this story has become so muddied up by the reporting of NTSB comments that I simply rule it out. Clearly the NTSB does not want projectiles to be a part of what happened that night.
I had been maintaining for some time, that I was convinced that the engineer was stunned somehow at the time a projectile hit the windshield, and accelerated until a lurch into the curve had him instinctively, without thought, applied the emergency brake.
The joke that Euclid, Bucky, or whatever you want to call him, has said anything that many others haven't thought of already, and that several have posted already, had gotten old and stale several weeks ago.
I think it's reasonable to conclude that the likeliest cause of this accident, just like the Metro North Spuyten Duyvil derailment, and many others, is the engineer's fault. It might have been appropriate to have kept an open mind and refrained from speculation and said "let the investigators investigaste", but hope for alien abduction or any other cause besides engineer failure has faded away.
I'm pretty sure they are not, judging by radio chatter I've heard from train crew radios in the cafe car. With events happening at corridor speeds and with train crews lifting tickets on jam-packed trains, I'm not sure that any relevent conformation could be accomplished.
Question about rules on the NEC -
Are Engineers required to call wayside signal indications over the road radio channel. Are engineers required to communicate wayside signal indications and/or changes in cab signal indications with the on board conductor over either the road radio channel or some channel of communication that pertains to only the train involved?
Met an Amtrak cop who works in Philly on the #611 trip. He worked the wreck and said that's a very dangerous area for trains. Always getting shot at or rocks thrown. One time some jerks put a refrigerator on the tracks, the train hit it with extensive damage, but dash cam did catch who did it and they were arrested. Another time someone threw a bike on top of the train. They'd like to avoid North Philly but haven't been able to work out an alternate, Septa gets hit a lot too. No news yet as to what happened with the train. Did read an article that PRR had safety system that would have put brakes on speeding loco. It's still on Track 4, PTC on track 2 and 3. Amtrak was on Track 1 where the system had been disabled years ago. That system is not subject to "hack attacks or grid attacks". Sounds like new is not necessarily better and improved.
In an article in Sunday's Richmond Times Dispatch, from the Bloomberg News agency about cockpit safety on commercial airliners, the FAA has rejected the NTSB's calls for adding video recorders in cockpits, saying there is "no compelling evidence" it would help investigations.
I'm quite certain the FRA will not have a similar response to inward facing locomotive cab camaras.
CSSHEGEWISCH theodorefisk Just a question - have any of the experts determined why the train was going twice the speedlimit into that curve yet? Ted The NTSB will probably issue its report in several months, Bucky appears to already have an answer.
theodorefisk Just a question - have any of the experts determined why the train was going twice the speedlimit into that curve yet? Ted
Just a question - have any of the experts determined why the train was going twice the speedlimit into that curve yet?
Ted
The NTSB will probably issue its report in several months, Bucky appears to already have an answer.
Who are the experts? The NTSB that is charged with the responsibility or Bucky? One has already decided and the other is still investigating the facts.
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