EMD / Caterpillar Tier 4 Locomotives Won't Be Ready Until 2017 !!!

[BaltACD]

beaulieu

overall

Paul, This may be a stupid question, but, can General Electric just step in and fill the gap? Have they got a locomotive model that is Tier IV compliant?

GE is ahead of EMD but does not yet have a Tier IV certified locomotive. The problem is to keep the locomotive meeting Tier IV standards for 750,000 miles. GE locomotives meet Tier IV when they leave the factory, but so far they have failed at some point. So they keep working on them.

750K sound like a awful lot of mileage - Last I was aware my carriers high mileage engines - as a group were getting approximately 300 miles per day (use on mineral & bulk commodity trains, intermodal trains, merchandise trains, work trains and the layovers between uses) - in such use 750K is over 6.75 years (other carriers mileages may vary).

[Leo_Ames]

I thought they both had emissions credits built up that would allow them to delay implementation past the deadline? Read that at a few places, If true, that will hopefully help minimize the interruption.

Might help spur Eco sales if it doesn't just drive customers away as customers rebuild more in lieu of new locomotives.

[beaulieu]

overall

Paul, This may be a stupid question, but, can General Electric just step in and fill the gap? Have they got a locomotive model that is Tier IV compliant?

GE is ahead of EMD but does not yet have a Tier IV certified locomotive. The problem is to keep the locomotive meeting Tier IV standards for 750,000 miles. GE locomotives meet Tier IV when they leave the factory, but so far they have failed at some point. So they keep working on them.

[overall]

Paul, This may be a stupid question, but, can General Electric just step in and fill the gap? Have they got a locomotive model that is Tier IV compliant?

[Paul_D_North_Jr]

Article in Monday's (July 14, 2014) Wall Street Journal (appears to be generally available, even though otherwise mostly a 'pay site'):

http://online.wsj.com/articles/caterpillar-falls-behind-ge-in-locomotives-race-1405291739 

The worst part is that EMD appears to be essentially looking at - and accepting ?!? - 2 years (2015 and 2016) with no domestic sales.  What market share will be left for it after that absence ?   

There's also a discussion of this underway on the Locomotives Forum here, on Page 2 of the current "TIER IV" thread, at:

http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/741/t/230712.aspx?sort=ASC&pi332=2 

- Paul North.