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High Speed Rail it is

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High Speed Rail it is
Posted by jclass on Friday, July 6, 2012 10:05 PM

From the state that issued IOU's in place of tax refund checks to its residents two years ago?

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/07/usa-california-highspeedrail-idINL2E8I6DWO20120707

 

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Posted by endeavour on Friday, July 6, 2012 10:23 PM

jclass

From the state that issued IOU's in place of tax refund checks to its residents two years ago?

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/07/usa-california-highspeedrail-idINL2E8I6DWO20120707

 

Good luck with that!!! AUS$110 Billion to build between Brisbane-Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne!!! Should of been done 20 years ago!!!

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, July 6, 2012 10:32 PM

Well that project should give California a lot of good stimulus and help solve their economic problems. 

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Posted by ericsp on Friday, July 6, 2012 10:46 PM

There are probably about a dozen lawsuits pending against it ranging from inadequate EIR to its compliance with Proposition 1A, which is what created (or whatever the legal term is) the bonds.

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Posted by blownout cylinder on Saturday, July 7, 2012 12:12 AM

I can see this is going to be an interesting scenario down there...Confused

Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Saturday, July 7, 2012 8:23 AM

From that article:

"The United States has fallen sharply in the World Economic Forum's ranking of national infrastructure systems in recent years. In its 2007-2008 report, U.S. infrastructure ranked sixth in the world, but fell to 16th in the 2011-2012 report."

The world is moving on without us.

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Posted by cacole on Saturday, July 7, 2012 11:47 AM

I hope the State of California is successful with this project, but if it turns out to be typical it will drag through the courts until the estimated cost is triple the current amount, and no track will have been laid.

 

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Posted by jclass on Saturday, July 7, 2012 12:25 PM

More...

The bill authorizes the state to sell nearly half of a $10 billion high-speed rail bond that voters approved four years ago under Proposition 1A. In addition to financing the first segment of high-speed rail, it allocates a total of $1.9 billion in bonds for regional rail improvements in Northern and Southern California.

The upgrades include electrifying Caltrain, a San Jose-San Francisco commuter line, and improving Metrolink commuter lines in Southern California.

One dissenter, Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto, said public support had waned for the project, and there were too many questions about financing to complete it.

"Is there additional commitment of federal funds? There is not. Is there additional commitment of private funding? There is not. Is there a dedicated funding source that we can look to in the coming years? There is not," Simitian said.

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Posted by NP Red on Saturday, July 7, 2012 12:58 PM

Along a different thought, I see some general route infomation but sure would like to know some more details about the route on the southern end.  Will it do the loop?  It looks like the route goes from Palmdate straight to LA.  I didn't think there was a way to skip Cajon Pass but there must be.  Anybody find a detailed route plan in these areas?

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, July 7, 2012 3:34 PM

Phoebe Vet

From that article:

"The United States has fallen sharply in the World Economic Forum's ranking of national infrastructure systems in recent years. In its 2007-2008 report, U.S. infrastructure ranked sixth in the world, but fell to 16th in the 2011-2012 report."

The world is moving on without us. 

Cross country comparisons are challenging.  First up is foreign exchange.  It fluctuates daily.  Moreover, the fluctuations are compounded by foreign exchange swaps. Translating the off shore values to dollars is a mind bending exercise. Second, European countries, as well as many Asian and Latin American countries, use International Accounting Standards (IAS) whereas the United States follows Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Again, ironing out the differences is challenging.  Lastly, there is the ugly problem of producer price parity, i.e. equalizing the features in each capital project, equipment, operation, etc. so that one is comparing apples to apples and not oranges to apples.

I would like to see the methodologies used to reach the aforementioned comparisons.  Again, the key question is whether America's infrastructure meets its needs.  To be sure we have problems.  But they are being addressed.

As I noted in a previous post, the American Society of Civil Engineers issued a report a year or so ago stating amongst other things that 26% of America's bridges were restricted or obsolete.  However, it turns out that 11% of the bridges are restricted and 15% are obsolete.  What does obsolete mean?  It means, according to the report, that if the engineers where building the bridge today, they would not use the same design.  OK, so maybe there are better designs.  But that does not mean that the bridge is not functional or needs to be replaced.  Oh, did I mention, the American Society of Civil Engineers has a vested interest in more infrastructure spending.  It seems that a significant portion of its members make a living via infrastructure building and maintenance.  Who would have ever guessed?

Another issue is the numerator/denominator problem. If one has a high denominator, then a large increase in the numerator will appear as a small per cent increase.  On the other hand, if the denominator is relatively small, i.e. the country has the larges capitalized infrastructure in the world, the largest absolute increase in the numerator would still come across as a relatively per cent increase.

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Posted by DwightBranch on Saturday, July 7, 2012 3:55 PM

NP Red

Along a different thought, I see some general route infomation but sure would like to know some more details about the route on the southern end.  Will it do the loop?  It looks like the route goes from Palmdate straight to LA.  I didn't think there was a way to skip Cajon Pass but there must be.  Anybody find a detailed route plan in these areas?

Here is one map I have seen.

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Posted by tomikawaTT on Saturday, July 7, 2012 7:21 PM

Assuming that the map posted by Dwight Branch is accurate, the HSR route will go over Tehachapi Pass - but I will wager lots that it will be on a new alignment.  The existing right of way has 'way too many tight curves.

How do I figure?  Palmdale is on the route, and the alternative route (up the Grapevine) would leave Bakersfield to the south, not the southeast.

Incidentally, the Desert Xpress has a new name - which I fail to recall.  (People here in Las Vegas consider the whole idea a joke.)

Chuck (Former Edwards AFB resident currently retired in the Las Vegas Valley)

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Posted by ndbprr on Saturday, July 7, 2012 8:19 PM
Everybody got all excited when Obama allocated a couple of.billion for hsr in Chicago and I got a lot of grief for saying it was polical pork. Well nothing has happened and nobody is following the money. I bet the same thing will happen in California. Don't believe politicians from either party. Poli means many and tics are blood suckers.
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Posted by MidlandMike on Saturday, July 7, 2012 8:20 PM

The official website also shows the route going thru the Palmdale dog-leg. Here is a link to an interesting story about the rejection of the Grapevine short-cut.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan/10/local/la-me-bullet-train-20120110

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Posted by jclass on Saturday, July 7, 2012 8:27 PM

Here's the World Ecomomics Forum report, all 529 pages of it.

My instinct is to not put much stock in such things, but I suppose

important decisions are made based on this level of abstraction.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_Report_2011-12.pdf

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Posted by narig01 on Saturday, July 7, 2012 9:24 PM

Just a thought.  How much trackage would be saved by connecting to metrolink in lancaster?

Thx IGN

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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, July 7, 2012 9:29 PM

jclass

Here's the World Ecomomics Forum report, all 529 pages of it.

My instinct is to not put much stock in such things, but I suppose

important decisions are made based on this level of abstraction.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_Report_2011-12.pdf

The relevant chart on the USA:

2nd pillar: Infrastructure                                           Score           Rank

2.01 Quality of overall infrastructure............................. 5.7............24

2.02 Quality of roads..................................................... 5.7..............20

2.03 Quality of railroad infrastructure............................ 4.8...........20

2.04 Quality of port infrastructure................................. 5.5.............23

2.05 Quality of air transport infrastructure.................... 5.7...........31

2.06 Available airline seat kms/week, millions*... 32,085.9.........1

2.07 Quality of electricity supply................................... 6.0..............32

2.08 Fixed telephone lines/100 pop.* ......................... 48.7..........14

2.09 Mobile telephone subscriptions/100 pop.*......... 89.9.........87

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Posted by NP Red on Saturday, July 7, 2012 11:45 PM

I found some detailed maps at this site.  The proposal goes up the north side of hy58 and certainly does not do "The Loop".

http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/lib_Bakersfield_Palmdale.aspx

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Posted by narig01 on Sunday, July 8, 2012 12:37 AM

I think I see one possible reason why the change.    If you look to the north of Los Angeles you see the green area. That is part of the Angeles National Forest.  

       Going thru Tehachapi Pass is one less regulatory agency to deal with. In addition to the reduction of the NIMBY / NAMBY  problems.

Thx IGN

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Posted by tatans on Sunday, July 8, 2012 9:45 AM

I think a clarification is in order when speaking of high speed trains, in North America I believe the term HST means inter-city trains and NOT continental trains, sure the trains can be high speed to cross Belgium etc, but the distance from Halifax, Nova Scotia to Vancouver B.C. is 3,800 MILES or 6120 kilometres, and I would assume it's about the same distance from New York to California.

European distances are far less with more population between routes. will we ever see cross country high speed? not for a long, long time if ever.

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, July 8, 2012 10:37 AM

I don't believe very many, if any HSR advocates for the US or Canada are proposing transcontinental HSR's.  HSR discussions are about heavily populated corridors, <500 miles or between 3-4 hours, whichever is less.

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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, July 8, 2012 5:30 PM

jclass

Here's the World Ecomomics Forum report, all 529 pages of it.

My instinct is to not put much stock in such things, but I suppose

important decisions are made based on this level of abstraction.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_Report_2011-12.pdf 

I downloaded the report, but I don't think that I will have time to read it in the near future.  I have a number of other projects in the wings.

To know the status of the electric generation system in the United States, one would have to know the number of installed generators for starters.  Then he would need to know the rated capacity of each of them. Coupled with this information would be the need to know the status of each one, i.e. on-line, off-line, moth-balled, etc. He would also need to know the status of any new generation being installed and any generation being retired. He would need to know the age of each generator and whether it is capable of running at its rated capacity or whether it could exceed the rated capacity for a short period of time. Equally important, he would need to know the location of each generator and whether it is position optimized the network. This is just for generation.

There are thousands of generators throughout the United States. Some of them are operated by investor owned electric utilities; some are operated by co-generators; some of them are are operated by co-ops; some of them are operated by merchant plant owners. Gathering the data just for the United States could be a mind bending exercise.

Each electric utility in the United States prepares a FERC 1 form, which provides the FERC with a great deal of statistical data.  However, although it has been years since I prepared the form, as I remember the process the form did not gather a great deal of qualitative data, which is very important in determining the status of the system.  So to my question.

How does the methodology of the referenced study deal with these issues across all the countries for which it gathers data.  If it does not have a robust methodology for doing so, then an error is introduced into the gathering, processing, and reporting of the data that could make it suspect.

The other question I would have is the so-what question.  What are we as a nation doing different that can be tied to the information contained in the report? 

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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, July 8, 2012 6:08 PM

I believe the battle cry about our “crumbling infrastructure” is mostly an exaggeration by the public sector for its own self-interest.  That is why when the I35 bridge collapsed, we instantly had politicians lecturing the taxpayers for not paying enough to have safe bridges.  It did not even fit the facts of the collapse cause, but it did not make any difference to the crumbling infrastructure template. 

 

Too much frivolous spending on our “crumbling infrastructure” can lead to a crumbling economy.    

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, July 8, 2012 6:41 PM

Naturally, reports (World Economics Forum) of this sort are immediately minimized without even examining.

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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, July 8, 2012 6:59 PM

I did indeed examine it, but I would have to spend a lot of time with it to draw any conclusions.  But, I do not see a lack of infrastructure as a problem.  What conclusions do you draw from the report?  How do they correlate with your general beliefs about U.S. infrastructure?  

Is there some small portion of the report that would lead to an important conclusion? 

If anybody has a conclusion about U.S. infrastructure that they have determined from the report, and if they can show the pertinent content, I would gladly check it out. 

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, July 8, 2012 7:18 PM

One would think a national ranking of 24th in the world should at least raise questions.  Chapter 1:3 describes data collection from a variety of sources, including surveys of top corporate executives.  The recent accident in Northbrook, where a rail overpass collapsed on a couple in a car may be an vivid indication of infrastructure problem, as was the loss of electricity for nearly a week in northern VA and DC because of the vulnerability of the antiquated power grid to weather damage.  Closer to your bailiwick are the debatable issues with level rail crossings.

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Posted by tomikawaTT on Sunday, July 8, 2012 7:38 PM

After looking at the proposed Bakersfield-Tehachapi map, I have a suggestion.

Find out which tunneling contractor is going to supply TBMs for all those tunnels, and buy into the company.  Even accepting a horrendous grade, the line cuts across a lot of drainages in some very rugged country.  There's money to be made here, folks.

As a statistician, I question some of the logic of studies comparing the US to other countries, especially when quoted out of context.  Even comparing regions within the contiguous 48 is difficult.  So, are we getting dinged for the low level of infrastructure development in Alaska?  Or the paucity of paved surfaces in the all-but-unpopulated heart of Central Nevada?  Just who are the #1s, and how did they get to that rating?

Note that I'm not dissing the study out of hand, but I do question just how meaningful and useful it really is.

Chuck

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, July 8, 2012 7:50 PM

1 Switzerland ............................... 6.7

2 Singapore.................................. 6.6

3 France ....................................... 6.5

4 Hong Kong SAR........................ 6.5

5 Denmark ................................... 6.4

6 Finland....................................... 6.4

7 Iceland....................................... 6.4

8 Austria....................................... 6.3

9 United Arab Emirates................ 6.3

10 Germany ................................... 6.2

11 Sweden..................................... 6.1

12 Portugal..................................... 6.1

13 Japan......................................... 6.0

14 Netherlands............................... 6.0

15 Canada ...................................... 6.0

16 Luxembourg.............................. 5.9

17 Belgium..................................... 5.9

18 Korea, Rep. ............................... 5.9

19 Bahrain...................................... 5.9

20 Oman ........................................ 5.9

21 Barbados................................... 5.8

22 Spain ......................................... 5.8

23 Malaysia.................................... 5.7

24 United States ............................ 5.7

According to the report (p 412), it says the following for overalll infrastructure.  How would you assess general infrastructure (e.g., transport, telephony, and energy) in your country? [1 = extremely underdeveloped; 7 = extensive and efficient by international standards] | 2010–11 weighted average

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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, July 8, 2012 8:07 PM

What do those numbers mean?  Are countries with a higher number better off than countries with a lower number? 

Is a country that spends more than needed on infrastructure better off than a country that spends the right amount on infrastructure, but has less infrastructure than it could have if it spent more?

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Posted by schlimm on Sunday, July 8, 2012 8:21 PM

 [1 = extremely underdeveloped; 7 = extensive and efficient by international standards] .  Not about how much money spent, it's the judgment by executives in each country about their infrastructure, etc.   "The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. Incorporated as a not-for-profit foundation in 1971, and headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the Forum is tied to no political, partisan or national interests."

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