"No soup for you!" - Yev Kassem (from Seinfeld)
QUOTE: Originally posted by rllewiszz The most convincing information on this thread ... a satisfied CN shareholder! (MP173) I now address in sequence posts begining with Mr. Stahl's of 17:54:28. Yes, it is possible to run a railroad into the ground, but its difficult make financial and statistical reports look better and better for seven years while doing so and still maintain a functioning system. CN's first-half 2004 performance couldn't have happened if the railroad were in the mud. And let's recall that pre-privatization, CN was not chrome-plated. Which data do you reference that would show CN's operation to be "slipshod?" Your final sentence is grim: Perhaps you have facts to back it up, but this is what I found in the company reports: Train Accident rate, 1997: 2.2 per million train miles Train Accident rate, 2003: 2.0 Injury Frequency rate, 1997: 7.8 per 200,000 person hours Injury Frequency rate, 2003: 2.9 Hemphill: Indeed financial and statistical figures can be manipulated. Recall McGinnis at the New Haven! However, since moving from "betterment" accounting to depreciation accounting in 1983 it is much more difficult to "trick" the numbers by running the road into the ground. (I assume the Canadian lines made the change at about the same time as the U.S. lines.) Rail laid, ties installed, ballast poured figures will be interesting for CN. Is there a Canandian regulatory counter-part to STB (or FRA?) that monitors deferred maintenance? Those figures would be helpful. CSX seems to be the usual suspect in U.S. reporting. Junctionfan: 1. You imply that 400 trains per day is inadequate to serve the franchise. What is the basis for your concern? Some "blue sky" numbers: 400/day x 365 = 146,000 trains to generate $5.7 billion in revenue. This = $39,000/train. Assume 39 loads/train. that's $1,000/load. Not very high for a transcon/chemical carrier. In reality, CN averaged $1,358/car in 2003. Plug that number back in, and you get only 29 loads per train if CN runs 400 trains /day. By traditional standards one might well argue that they are running too many trains, but emphasis on scheduled operations and good customer service seems to be paying off. 2. Merger economies are to be expected and a growing economy will absorb the displaced workers. (Not to minimize the personal disruptions that individuals experience.) Busy railroads are expected to be tight on crews and equipment ... look at UP! They have tanked while CN had a banner first-half of 2004. Railroad labor negotiations are notoriously difficult, but capitulation can be fatal, witness "Saunder's sellout" at Penn Central. 3. Tracks in utter chaos? How can that be, given current performance? Where is the documentation? 4. All railroads have derailments, regrettably. CN's accident rate has trended down slightly in the past seven years. (Anyone know what the U.S. rate was last year?) 5. CN Roadrailer was competing in an intensely competitive short-haul lane, long dominated by trucks. If you can't make a return, better to sell the assets and put the money in the roadbed where most needed. 6. All U.S. roads use contractors to clear derailments. It is much more efficient than keeping excess MOW employees sitting around waiting for an accident. 7. It appears to me that "precision railroading" has a shot at regaining some of that traffic. I repeat: who are the "railway workers, private corporations, government officials as well as private citizens" who have the deep-seated concerns about CN? With regard to Operating Ratio and Operating Income: When OR declines, OI increases, other things being equal. That's why a low OR has been the defining "figure of merit" for financial success in the industry for a century or more. I have taken only the most superficial glance at CN figures, and I have zero on-the-ground knowledge of the property. I may be fundamentally mistaken on some or all of the above points. But so far I have seen no data nor sources in this thread to suggest that I am. I respect anecdotal reports, for they often reveal underlying reality, but such reports, I believe must then be buttressed by analysis. Let's all keep digging ... most reports that will shed needed light can be found on the web. Good exchange!
QUOTE: Originally posted by ericsp I think CN's new motto is "CN, the UP of the North."
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
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