Did UP+C&NW cause BN+ATSF?

[PNWRMNM]

I would note that BN did not have any railroad management depth.  My personal opinion is that the BN board bought the ATSF to get Rob Krebs first and foremost.  Again in my opinion, they got a good buy.

Mac

[schlimm]

If you look over the timeline of when mergers were proposed, it looks like the UP purchased the SP after they failed to acquire the ATSF in a bidding war with BN. 

The Union Pacific (UP) started a bidding war with BN for control of the SF on October 5. 1994.
UP purchase and control of C&NW became effective May 1, 1995, formal merger occurred September 30, 1995. The UP gave up on the ATSF January 31, 1995, paving the way for the BN-ATSF merger September 22, 1995 .  Subsequently, the UP acquired the Southern Pacific (SP) in 1996.

[Paul_D_North_Jr]

That's the chronological sequence, but I too doubt that it was causative, any more than a rooster's crowing before dawn causes the sun to rise.  What C&NW provided new to the UP was mainly direct access to Chicago, and to the Powder River Basin coal fields.  Since both BN and ATSF each already had good routes into Chicago for many years, and BN had the PRB for almost 20 years - and adding ATSF didn't do much for that, either - I don't believe that "response" characterization or conclusion is correct.  UP +C&NW was a preparatory step, but not enough to immediately force or compel the BN +ATSF merger as a matter of competitiveness or survival.

But in my view, the next significant merger - BN +ATSF - did force and compel the UP + SP merger, as a matter of competitiveness and survival.  Keep in mind, too, at that time - 1996 - was also the NS vs. CSX battle for ConRail, so it's likely that the western roads wanted to secure their home territories so as to be prepared for however that was going to turn out.

- Paul North. 

[nanaimo73]

Andy Cummings has an article in the November issue of Trains titled "Mileposts Along the Iron Highway". On page 64 it states "Chicago & North Western goes to Union Pacific in 1995, BN and Santa Fe merge in response".

Is that accurate? I can't recall reading anything previously that one merger caused the other.