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$170.00 Per Barrel of Oil Locked

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Posted by sfcouple on Saturday, June 28, 2008 8:58 PM
 alphas wrote:

MP173:

To answer your one question, the temperatures on the planets where we have conducted probes are also increasing.  This is no surprise since all of the planets are expected to feel the effects of the increased solar flare activity that has taken place on our sun in recent years.   Science has been able to calculate a history of our sun's solar flare activity from long years gone by (thanks to computers) and it does coincide with the warmer periods during both recorded history and before (determined by geological and similar studies).   Although you'd never know it by the way that most news media keep reporting the currrent warm period as totally the fault of man, the continuing main differences among the true climatologists is over whether or not the solar flare activity is really "the" reason for our planet's warming or whether or not there are other factors that are being caused by man this time around.   There's lots of theories on the later but no one has been able to prove anything yet, despite what Al Gore and similar claim.  

Actually the connection between solar flares and the current climate change has been analyzed quite carefully and there does not appear to be a significant direct correlation.  I'm using the following reference in making this statement: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-lure-of-solar-forcing/

And this particular website (realclimate.org) is an excellent resource that discusses a voluminous amount of climate issues in a factual manner, without an apparent political agenda. This website will probably answer most, if not all, questions one might have on this controversial issue.  

Wayne  

 

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Posted by Railway Man on Saturday, June 28, 2008 8:55 PM
 selector wrote:

And I will have to yield my fine view on the bluffs overlooking the Straight of Georgia and the Coast Range beyond when that happens.  -Crandell

Along with your hobby of beach-combing for right feet in tennis shoes ...Mischief [:-,]Mischief [:-,]

Sorry, I just couldn't resist.Mischief [:-,]

Mischief [:-,]

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Posted by selector on Saturday, June 28, 2008 8:46 PM

Quentin, I feel you have nearly answered your own question at the last.  Much of the south polar ice is elevated and supported well above sea level.  This is unlike your glass of water.

I have recently seen estimates that mean ocean levels will rise between 150-200'....!!!!!  That represents a huge volume of water, no matter what its state.  And I will have to yield my fine view on the bluffs overlooking the Straight Strait Blush [:I] of Georgia and the Coast Range beyond when that happens.  I am a mere 100' above sea level, with a nice path down to the beach.  Currently my property terminates at the high water mark, about where a lot of the beach logs are deposited during the winter storms.

-Crandell

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Posted by alphas on Saturday, June 28, 2008 8:38 PM

MP173:

To answer your one question, the temperatures on the planets where we have conducted probes are also increasing.  This is no surprise since all of the planets are expected to feel the effects of the increased solar flare activity that has taken place on our sun in recent years.   Science has been able to calculate a history of our sun's solar flare activity from long years gone by (thanks to computers) and it does coincide with the warmer periods during both recorded history and before (determined by geological and similar studies).   Although you'd never know it by the way that most news media keep reporting the currrent warm period as totally the fault of man, the continuing main differences among the true climatologists is over whether or not the solar flare activity is really "the" reason for our planet's warming or whether or not there are other factors that are being caused by man this time around.   There's lots of theories on the later but no one has been able to prove anything yet, despite what Al Gore and similar claim.  

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Posted by Modelcar on Saturday, June 28, 2008 8:32 PM

....I have seen the images from space of the polar ice cap and the comparison to another time and it was shocking the amount of difference.

Wally.....You mention the Panama Canal and {I assume you refer to higher water levels}....If the polar ice cap does melt and I'm assuming it's floating on the Artic ocean...{I really don't know that for sure}.....even if it melts, it shouldn't raise the water level any if it's already floating in the sea.....Example:  A glass full of water and ice...remains the same level even after the ice melts.

Of course if part of the artic ice cap is resting on land, than that's a different story.

Quentin

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Posted by benburch on Saturday, June 28, 2008 5:48 PM
 Modelcar wrote:

.....Could burn oil shale in a firebox with grates.......??  Does the shale turn into "ashes".....?



You grind it to stove coal size and then have a mechanical expeller for the rock. Firebox would be somewhat different.
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Posted by erikem on Saturday, June 28, 2008 5:37 PM
 wallyworld wrote:

It is expected there is a 50% chance for the cap to completely melt this year...we'll see..I wonder if there are unexplored oil reserves under it?  Santa Claus is looking at launching from an oil platform next year...

It is very likely that there are some large oil reserves under the Arctic Ocean - that's why the Russians have been making noises about the underwater ridge extending towards the North Pole. 

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, June 28, 2008 2:49 PM
 nanaimo73 wrote:
 Bucyrus wrote:

The falling dollar does seem to be cited often as being part of the problem.  I would like to hear a little more about what is causing the weak dollar.

The weak dollar is caused by the $500B budget and $900B trade deficits.

So if I were a speculator, I would speculate that it will only get weaker.

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Posted by wallyworld on Saturday, June 28, 2008 2:33 PM
 Bucyrus wrote:
 MP173 wrote:

Several points:

1.  A very significant run up in the cost of a barrel of oil is due to the falling value of the dollar.  A month or so ago the price of oil was $125/B and E75/B.  The dollar and Euro were roughly even several years ago, perhaps 2001.  In other words $1 = E1.  Today the dollar is somewhere around E1.60.  A dollar purchases much less than a Euro compared to 7 years ago.  With the oil at E75, had the dollar not fallen (and why it has is another topic) our oil would be around $75.

2.  Dont think OPEC is really happy with this high oil situation.  Short term it is good news.  Long term not so good.  Every dollar increase in oil allows more and more "alternative fuels" to become more attractive.  Oil at $140/B is more attractive and drilling for the deeper oils, or refining oil sands, etc is an option. 

3.  Saudia Arabia is considering upping production to 15 million barrels a day to meet demand.  Yet, that creates potential problems for the structure of their oil fields.  The last time production was bumped up in the late 70's it resulted in damage to the oil fields and penetration of water into those fields.  Will that happen now?

4.  At this pricing, more and  more technology is available to increase production.  Oil that wasnt attractive and wells shut down are now being reworked with plans for production.  This is even being done on wells with production as low as 3 barrels per day.

I truly believe this is going to be a watershed election year.  By October this could be an "energy election", if not sooner.  The Democrats have established that they want no offshore drilling, nor ANWAR drilling.  The Republican candidate seems to be awakening to the fact this might be his only chance to secure the election and is starting to change his opinion on drilling.

Regarding North Pole...I just heard that yesterday and dont have a comment.  But, is it possible that the warming is due to something completely different than emissions?  The earth has gone thru a number of periods of warming/cooling.  Is it possible we are in a cycle now?  What is happening to the temps on Mars and other planets, or do we know?

ed

 

The falling dollar does seem to be cited often as being part of the problem.  I would like to hear a little more about what is causing the weak dollar.

That is the one silver lining of high oil.  That is, that it spurs development of alternatives.  Indeed OPEC might be very nervous about the market.  Although high prices redound to their benefit right now, they may lead to a serious demand falloff if there is a worldwide backlash expressed in the form of conservation, or if there is a breakthrough in alternative fuel, -or- if U.S. politics allows more U.S. production. 

In regard to this being an "energy election," I suspect that nobody is paying more attention to it than OPEC.  Any candidate that stepped up and declared that we will ramp up domestic production, and become energy independent within ten years would cut the world price of oil in half the minute the words left his mouth.       

Regarding the North Pole, there is always ice melting somewhere, and the image can be broadcast to the masses.  But it is a big leap to attach the conclusion that the entire North Pole will melt within a couple years, resulting in the extinction of the polar bears.

It is expected there is a 50% chance for the cap to completely melt this year...we'll see..I wonder if there are unexplored oil reserves under it?  Santa Claus is looking at launching from an oil platform next year...

Nothing is more fairly distributed than common sense: no one thinks he needs more of it than he already has.

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Posted by nanaimo73 on Saturday, June 28, 2008 2:22 PM
 Bucyrus wrote:

The falling dollar does seem to be cited often as being part of the problem.  I would like to hear a little more about what is causing the weak dollar.

The weak dollar is caused by the $500B budget and $900B trade deficits.

Dale
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, June 28, 2008 2:10 PM
 MP173 wrote:

Several points:

1.  A very significant run up in the cost of a barrel of oil is due to the falling value of the dollar.  A month or so ago the price of oil was $125/B and E75/B.  The dollar and Euro were roughly even several years ago, perhaps 2001.  In other words $1 = E1.  Today the dollar is somewhere around E1.60.  A dollar purchases much less than a Euro compared to 7 years ago.  With the oil at E75, had the dollar not fallen (and why it has is another topic) our oil would be around $75.

2.  Dont think OPEC is really happy with this high oil situation.  Short term it is good news.  Long term not so good.  Every dollar increase in oil allows more and more "alternative fuels" to become more attractive.  Oil at $140/B is more attractive and drilling for the deeper oils, or refining oil sands, etc is an option. 

3.  Saudia Arabia is considering upping production to 15 million barrels a day to meet demand.  Yet, that creates potential problems for the structure of their oil fields.  The last time production was bumped up in the late 70's it resulted in damage to the oil fields and penetration of water into those fields.  Will that happen now?

4.  At this pricing, more and  more technology is available to increase production.  Oil that wasnt attractive and wells shut down are now being reworked with plans for production.  This is even being done on wells with production as low as 3 barrels per day.

I truly believe this is going to be a watershed election year.  By October this could be an "energy election", if not sooner.  The Democrats have established that they want no offshore drilling, nor ANWAR drilling.  The Republican candidate seems to be awakening to the fact this might be his only chance to secure the election and is starting to change his opinion on drilling.

Regarding North Pole...I just heard that yesterday and dont have a comment.  But, is it possible that the warming is due to something completely different than emissions?  The earth has gone thru a number of periods of warming/cooling.  Is it possible we are in a cycle now?  What is happening to the temps on Mars and other planets, or do we know?

ed

 

The falling dollar does seem to be cited often as being part of the problem.  I would like to hear a little more about what is causing the weak dollar.

That is the one silver lining of high oil.  That is, that it spurs development of alternatives.  Indeed OPEC might be very nervous about the market.  Although high prices redound to their benefit right now, they may lead to a serious demand falloff if there is a worldwide backlash expressed in the form of conservation, or if there is a breakthrough in alternative fuel, -or- if U.S. politics allows more U.S. production. 

In regard to this being an "energy election," I suspect that nobody is paying more attention to it than OPEC.  Any candidate that stepped up and declared that we will ramp up domestic production, and become energy independent within ten years would cut the world price of oil in half the minute the words left his mouth.       

Regarding the North Pole, there is always ice melting somewhere, and the image can be broadcast to the masses.  But it is a big leap to attach the conclusion that the entire North Pole will melt within a couple years, resulting in the extinction of the polar bears.

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Posted by wallyworld on Saturday, June 28, 2008 1:51 PM
 Norman Saxon wrote:
 wallyworld wrote:
 

What is interesting in your views is that mixed in this situation is how wrong the predictions of experts can be. The nothern polar ice cap was not supposed to melt and collapse for another twenty or so years...according to every prediction and now I heard on the news this has a 50% chance of occurring within this year, two decades ahead of their "schedule."

The "polar ice cap melt" is just another baseless scare thrown into the election mix by the Chicken Little Flat Earth Global Warming Society.  Arctic sea ice is actually 50% thicker now than at this time last year, and the Antarctic ice cap is growing by leaps and bounds.

 

I suggest you view the images of the cap taken from space ...relative thickness is not the same as measuring area...there are advantages to this, the opening of the long sought Northwest Passage....it is what it is....ice is ice...its the politicians that applies politics to saltwater. One wonders what will happen to the Panama Canal?The level of CO2 will enhance crop production....it all depends on your subjective point of view...as it applies to a valuation.  

Nothing is more fairly distributed than common sense: no one thinks he needs more of it than he already has.

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Posted by WSOR 3801 on Saturday, June 28, 2008 1:28 PM
 Bucyrus wrote:

But telecommuting will have to undergo some serious evolution to upgrade accountability from employees that are out of eyeshot of the employer.  I have seen polls in which 25% of telecommuters state that they only perform one hour of work for the company while being paid for an eight-hour-day.  You can't just take conventional employees who are used to the personal empowerment they achieve by working onsite, and expect them to take responsibility for their work like independent contractors when you let them work at home.

What makes you think that they were performing eight hours of work a day at the office?  If the pay was the same, the work output the same, and they save how much time and fuel by staying home, it might be better all around.

Did you get the memo about the TPS reports? Wink [;)]

Mike WSOR engineer | HO scale since 1988 | Visit our club www.WCGandyDancers.com

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Posted by Norman Saxon on Saturday, June 28, 2008 1:22 PM
 wallyworld wrote:
 

What is interesting in your views is that mixed in this situation is how wrong the predictions of experts can be. The nothern polar ice cap was not supposed to melt and collapse for another twenty or so years...according to every prediction and now I heard on the news this has a 50% chance of occurring within this year, two decades ahead of their "schedule."

The "polar ice cap melt" is just another baseless scare thrown into the election mix by the Chicken Little Flat Earth Global Warming Society.  Arctic sea ice is actually 50% thicker now than at this time last year, and the Antarctic ice cap is growing by leaps and bounds.

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Posted by Norman Saxon on Saturday, June 28, 2008 1:15 PM
 MP173 wrote:

Regarding North Pole...I just heard that yesterday and dont have a comment.  But, is it possible that the warming is due to something completely different than emissions?  The earth has gone thru a number of periods of warming/cooling.  Is it possible we are in a cycle now?  What is happening to the temps on Mars and other planets, or do we know?

"Fire under the ice:  International expedition discovers gigantic volcanic eruption in the Arctic Ocean"

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-06/haog-fut062508.php

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, June 28, 2008 1:00 PM
 wallyworld wrote:
 eolafan wrote:

The automobile and relatively cheap gasoline are largely to blame for the creation of the suburbs in the late 1940's through the early 1960's and the breakdown of the traditional neighborhoods...parents driving their kids everywhere instead of walking or biking, the creation of malls with huge parking lots instead of neighborhood shops along the streets and avenues and the demise of streetcar and local rail lines for passenger service.

Most of us have heard the old expression "What goes around comes around" and how about the one "Hang onto something long enough it will be popular again".  Well, these are surely considerations with gas approaching $5/gallon.

We could be experiencing the beginnings of the reversing of what was created in the forties and fifties...which would be OK with me.

 In urban areas versus suburban enclaves, the general trend has been a decrease in valuation for the outlying areas and and increase in urban areas where long car dependant commutes are not required.....the plowing under in Chicago and elsewhere of entire neighborhoods to pave them over as roadways....the vanishing of Insull's roads....is this about to reverse itself?...Los Angeles is a good example...rebuilding the Pacific Electric...maybe high gas has benefits if it forces planners to look at balancing transportation needs realistically. When I was growing up in Chicago we walked or took the L.....now I am seriously thinking of leaving the suburbs in a full circle....having to drive everywhere is a pain in the _ss ....as surban roads are so congested it takes forever to do a simple errand....

Besides moving into high density living in the inner cities, suburbanites can escape the high fuel costs by telecommuting.  You can be sure there will be an explosion of demand for this work format as a result of the gas crisis. 

But telecommuting will have to undergo some serious evolution to upgrade accountability from employees that are out of eyeshot of the employer.  I have seen polls in which 25% of telecommuters state that they only perform one hour of work for the company while being paid for an eight-hour-day.  You can't just take conventional employees who are used to the personal empowerment they achieve by working onsite, and expect them to take responsibility for their work like independent contractors when you let them work at home.

What will have to happen is for workers to become independent contactors as one-person service companies.  They will have to compete with each other and be highly accountable for their time and task progress.  With this sea change, coupled with on-going improvements to communication and software, employers will discover that they have not only solved the energy crisis for much of their workforce, but they have also acquired a workforce that is several times more cost effective than their previous onsite direct employees.

This will cause a distinct division of labor between those performing tasks that can be done offsite, and those performing tasks such as hands-on manufacturing that must be done on the company's site.  Therefore companies will tend to migrate their manufacturing centers toward the central cities, where it is possible for the workforce to transport themselves to the worksite.  Meanwhile, the people doing the offsite tasks will tend to migrate to the suburbs or even to more remote and pristine areas where they can make a living while avoiding the congestion and discomfort of the extra-high-density urban areas.

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Posted by wallyworld on Saturday, June 28, 2008 12:10 PM
 eolafan wrote:

The automobile and relatively cheap gasoline are largely to blame for the creation of the suburbs in the late 1940's through the early 1960's and the breakdown of the traditional neighborhoods...parents driving their kids everywhere instead of walking or biking, the creation of malls with huge parking lots instead of neighborhood shops along the streets and avenues and the demise of streetcar and local rail lines for passenger service.

Most of us have heard the old expression "What goes around comes around" and how about the one "Hang onto something long enough it will be popular again".  Well, these are surely considerations with gas approaching $5/gallon.

We could be experiencing the beginnings of the reversing of what was created in the forties and fifties...which would be OK with me.

 In urban areas versus suburban enclaves, the general trend has been a decrease in valuation for the outlying areas and and increase in urban areas where long car dependant commutes are not required.....the plowing under in Chicago and elsewhere of entire neighborhoods to pave them over as roadways....the vanishing of Insull's roads....is this about to reverse itself?...Los Angeles is a good example...rebuilding the Pacific Electric...maybe high gas has benefits if it forces planners to look at balancing transportation needs realistically. When I was growing up in Chicago we walked or took the L.....now I am seriously thinking of leaving the suburbs in a full circle....having to drive everywhere is a pain in the _ss ....as surban roads are so congested it takes forever to do a simple errand....

Nothing is more fairly distributed than common sense: no one thinks he needs more of it than he already has.

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Posted by Modelcar on Saturday, June 28, 2008 12:06 PM

......And the "40's and 50"s" changes mentioned by Jim much influenced by actions caused by rebuilding and renewing after WWII.

Quentin

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, June 28, 2008 11:54 AM
 diningcar wrote:

I shall weigh in on the futures market 'scapegoat' which our congresspeople are now looking at to get the heat off of themselves.

Yes the speculators are the most reddish of red herrings.  But if congress says speculation is what is driving oil prices up, it should be easy for them to outlaw speculation.  How long can that take?  End of problem.  I'm glad it was so easy to fix.

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Posted by diningcar on Saturday, June 28, 2008 11:37 AM

I shall weigh in on the futures market 'scapegoat' which our congresspeople are now looking at to get the heat off of themselves.

Futures markets are here to stay. To regulate them by congressional action will serve no purpose other than to distract voters until after the election.

If futures markets are substantially regulated in the USA the trading will be done in: Tokyo, Hong Kong, London or wherever and we shall actually weaken our influence in the market.

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Posted by eolafan on Saturday, June 28, 2008 10:56 AM

The automobile and relatively cheap gasoline are largely to blame for the creation of the suburbs in the late 1940's through the early 1960's and the breakdown of the traditional neighborhoods...parents driving their kids everywhere instead of walking or biking, the creation of malls with huge parking lots instead of neighborhood shops along the streets and avenues and the demise of streetcar and local rail lines for passenger service.

Most of us have heard the old expression "What goes around comes around" and how about the one "Hang onto something long enough it will be popular again".  Well, these are surely considerations with gas approaching $5/gallon.

We could be experiencing the beginnings of the reversing of what was created in the forties and fifties...which would be OK with me.

Eolafan (a.k.a. Jim)
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Posted by MP173 on Saturday, June 28, 2008 10:56 AM

Several points:

1.  A very significant run up in the cost of a barrel of oil is due to the falling value of the dollar.  A month or so ago the price of oil was $125/B and E75/B.  The dollar and Euro were roughly even several years ago, perhaps 2001.  In other words $1 = E1.  Today the dollar is somewhere around E1.60.  A dollar purchases much less than a Euro compared to 7 years ago.  With the oil at E75, had the dollar not fallen (and why it has is another topic) our oil would be around $75.

2.  Dont think OPEC is really happy with this high oil situation.  Short term it is good news.  Long term not so good.  Every dollar increase in oil allows more and more "alternative fuels" to become more attractive.  Oil at $140/B is more attractive and drilling for the deeper oils, or refining oil sands, etc is an option. 

3.  Saudia Arabia is considering upping production to 15 million barrels a day to meet demand.  Yet, that creates potential problems for the structure of their oil fields.  The last time production was bumped up in the late 70's it resulted in damage to the oil fields and penetration of water into those fields.  Will that happen now?

4.  At this pricing, more and  more technology is available to increase production.  Oil that wasnt attractive and wells shut down are now being reworked with plans for production.  This is even being done on wells with production as low as 3 barrels per day.

I truly believe this is going to be a watershed election year.  By October this could be an "energy election", if not sooner.  The Democrats have established that they want no offshore drilling, nor ANWAR drilling.  The Republican candidate seems to be awakening to the fact this might be his only chance to secure the election and is starting to change his opinion on drilling.

Regarding North Pole...I just heard that yesterday and dont have a comment.  But, is it possible that the warming is due to something completely different than emissions?  The earth has gone thru a number of periods of warming/cooling.  Is it possible we are in a cycle now?  What is happening to the temps on Mars and other planets, or do we know?

ed

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:51 AM

To the extent that high fuel prices can cause a tipping point, I think it will do so first with the airlines.  What would be the cost of business flight if that were the only kind of flight occurring?  And at that cost, how much would business flight decrease?  And then what would be the cost of that greatly reduced business flight?

The second most likely transportation business to experience a tipping point would be trucking because it carries a lot of product that consumers can forego.  I agree that railroads would be less likely to experience a tipping point because a smaller percentage of what they carry is sensitive to consumer consumption cutback.  The way the energy crisis will affect the railroads will likely be through their general business relationship to the collapse of the U.S. economy.

Where a tipping point will most dramatically occur is where we are tipped out of our cars and dumped into public transportation. 

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Posted by wallyworld on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:49 AM
 Last Chance wrote:

We need to allow electric cars all around right away. Basically render oil irrevelant except for necessary things unrelated to motor transport, railroad or cars. The Ethanol is a big scam and a robbery of the food basket. We need those crops to eat.

Im hardheaded and see 200+ dollar oil within a few years. That works out about 8 dollar or more per gallon. We can withstand 12 or so before we have to stop driving. Sometimes one is in a important job and when the entire net pay is burned up just for the monday-friday commute... well... we would have to take on a second or third job dont we?

No. Enough is enough. I intend to ride this one all the way to about 12 dollars a gallon. I fear that many folks will be in open revolt long before we reach that high. I already parked one vehicle and the other gives me very good performance mileage wise. If we had to at 12 dollars, we would quit our jobs and move to another just down the road at minimum wage and walking distance and keep going with both vehicles parked and just worry about the house utilities every month.

I tell you this. If the railroad brought back steam with good King Coal, thier fuel bills will settle down overnight, to be replaced by large manpower and infrastructure costs. Another thought is to take a page from the PRR's GG1 and electrify it all hooked up to the brand new power plants that the Pols are hawking these days.

What is interesting in your views is that mixed in this situation is how wrong the predictions of experts can be. The nothern polar ice cap was not supposed to melt and collapse for another twenty or so years...according to every prediction and now I heard on the news this has a 50% chance of occurring within this year, two decades ahead of their "schedule." The problem I see is lead - lag time as well...things that should have been done decades ago, well, would be done by now...whether it is offshore drilling...electric cars....nuclear power...even the resurrection of steam all require fairly significant lead time before any results are seen. Within this oil changes price on a per barrel basis... on a dime...daily....I just am amazed how rudderless we are in this...not to get political..whatever the party its all hot air which if we could harness would solve this problem overnight....Ill leave it at that...I found the quote and it was from Ross Rowland who said it would take $150.00 per barrel oil to have the roads look at alternative fuels...its at $140.00 as of yesterday....its only June....fasten your seatbelts.....

Nothing is more fairly distributed than common sense: no one thinks he needs more of it than he already has.

MTB
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Posted by MTB on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:38 AM

Good for you that this works. The fact is alot of people live in small towns where there are no jobs. They have to drive 30 miles to a bigger city for work. There's nothing funny about that in my book.

 

 

 

 passengerfan wrote:

I laugh at all of these people who commute 30 miles per day to their jobs while I walk 3 blocks. And when I took this job it was for an increase in salary and have been there eleven years now. I do a great deal of my work from home as my home computer is tied to the company system. I go into the office for no more than three hours per day and do the rest from home. I am now semi-retired and would have it no other way.

I don't even own a car, instead I rent one as I need it once or twice a month to do all of my shopping and go to the occasional Casino. The car rental companies are offering all kinds of deals. I don't have to have insurance worry about licensing a vehicle or wear and tear.

When I go on vacation I take the train where possible and rent a car to get around. On several occasions I have rented cars to go to Las Vegas but found it is better to rent a car when I get there even though a good part of the trip is on the Amtrak bus from Bakersfield to Las Vegas.

I have no complaints about this life style whatsoever.

Al - in - Stockton

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Posted by oltmannd on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:37 AM
 wallyworld wrote:
 Railway Man wrote:
 wallyworld wrote:

Where they have to absorb the increase. 

Varies considerably by shipper, lane, and commodity.  And more important, it depends on how efficiently the rail shipper can pass on the rail-transportation cost increase to the consumer of whatever it is that is being shipped by rail.  Probably we'll never know because the point where the rail-transportation cost can no longer be passed onto the consumer is well after the point at which the cost increase in gasoline, diesel fuel, and utilities is so high that the consumer has no money left to purchase anything other than food, gasoline to drive to work, and utilities.

Coal demand is pretty inelastic; people will give up a lot of things before they give up electricity.  So is wheat.  Autos, building materials, consumer electronics, clothes, tires -- those are very elastic.  Corn is too, because mostly it goes into animal feed, ethanol, and corn sweeteners, and when consumers are pressured for money, meat consumption, soda pop consumption, and gasoline consumption declines.

RWM

 

RWM 

Thanks for the answer and by the answer I infer that container traffic would possibly impacted by decreased demand for consumer goods, which makes sense. It sounds like some shake out may occur indirectly...the stronger lines tied to steady traffic generators that are not dependant on consumer demand for imports will have it somewhat easier. Any predictions or who is in a stronger position traffic wise- to weather this "perfect storm"?

At the moment, commodities are holding up but finidhed goods are tanking.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:37 AM

....I don't know what changes....but drastic changes if gasoline reaches 12 bucks a gallon here.

Real trouble.....!

Don't see our way out of this one yet, but somehow we {everyone} with authority better start now and get something moving.   We need to get plan "B" up and running soon.....

National security.....our way of life.....major auto companies.....all kinds of transportation.....and the problem filtering thru most industries of food and other necessary products would be crippled.  And of course, our economic structure....Really, most everything.

Somehow we need to get moving...Soon.

Edit:

I remember many of the depression years albeit as a rather young fellow, but with vivid details and memories.  This event we're facing now as a country is beginning to seem even more scary.

Quentin

  • Member since
    March 2004
  • From: Central Valley California
  • 2,841 posts
Posted by passengerfan on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:30 AM

I laugh at all of these people who commute 30 miles per day to their jobs while I walk 3 blocks. And when I took this job it was for an increase in salary and have been there eleven years now. I do a great deal of my work from home as my home computer is tied to the company system. I go into the office for no more than three hours per day and do the rest from home. I am now semi-retired and would have it no other way.

I don't even own a car, instead I rent one as I need it once or twice a month to do all of my shopping and go to the occasional Casino. The car rental companies are offering all kinds of deals. I don't have to have insurance worry about licensing a vehicle or wear and tear.

When I go on vacation I take the train where possible and rent a car to get around. On several occasions I have rented cars to go to Las Vegas but found it is better to rent a car when I get there even though a good part of the trip is on the Amtrak bus from Bakersfield to Las Vegas.

I have no complaints about this life style whatsoever.

Al - in - Stockton

  • Member since
    March 2007
  • From: Old Sarum (UK)
  • 98 posts
Posted by cogloadreturns on Saturday, June 28, 2008 9:01 AM
Hehehehhee. Petrol is £6/gallon over here or near as dammit...(UK gallon)..so thats what about $9.....ohhh.
"Windy Militant leads his Basque like corn grinders to war.........." HMHB - Trumpton Riots.
  • Member since
    May 2008
  • 880 posts
Posted by Last Chance on Saturday, June 28, 2008 8:24 AM

We need to allow electric cars all around right away. Basically render oil irrevelant except for necessary things unrelated to motor transport, railroad or cars. The Ethanol is a big scam and a robbery of the food basket. We need those crops to eat.

Im hardheaded and see 200+ dollar oil within a few years. That works out about 8 dollar or more per gallon. We can withstand 12 or so before we have to stop driving. Sometimes one is in a important job and when the entire net pay is burned up just for the monday-friday commute... well... we would have to take on a second or third job dont we?

No. Enough is enough. I intend to ride this one all the way to about 12 dollars a gallon. I fear that many folks will be in open revolt long before we reach that high. I already parked one vehicle and the other gives me very good performance mileage wise. If we had to at 12 dollars, we would quit our jobs and move to another just down the road at minimum wage and walking distance and keep going with both vehicles parked and just worry about the house utilities every month.

I tell you this. If the railroad brought back steam with good King Coal, thier fuel bills will settle down overnight, to be replaced by large manpower and infrastructure costs. Another thought is to take a page from the PRR's GG1 and electrify it all hooked up to the brand new power plants that the Pols are hawking these days.

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