Flooding in Upper Midwest

[blhanel]

Some pictures from yesterday in the Cedar Rapids Gazette...

http://gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/tngallery?Site=GO&Date=20080610&Category=NEWS&ArtNo=386726802&Ref=PH&Params=Start=1

EDIT: Here's a good account and a great picture of the Waterloo bridge washout in the Waterloo Courier...

http://www.waterloocourier.com/articles/2008/06/11/news/top_story/doc484efdb5915b2225183969.txt

[TimChgo9]

The flooding is about the worst I have seen it, since 1993.  Here in Chicago, there are few problems, but the Northern suburbs could have a few things to be concerned about over the coming days. 

Anyway, some areas of the country, according to the NWS, and the weather forum I belong to, many areas of the Upper Midwest, Indiana, and the Ohio Valley have seen up to 300% of the average rainfall for the June 1-10 time period.  It's pretty unreal.  The next round of rain/thunderstorms is predicted to dump anywhere from 1" to 2.5" of rain across various areas of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Upper Midwest.  

Try this link, it shows the 24 hour precip for the upper midwest. http://models.easternuswx.com/gfsloop.php

The darker colors like blues and reds indicate the heavy rainfall.  You can see the swath of heavy rain, 3.3" in some spots as indicated by this run of the NAM weather forecast model, across Minnesota, Iowa, as well as Missouri and Nebraska.  The atmosphere has been rather "wet" with the last few systems, and that is translating into alot of rain.  

The long range forecast shows a fairly active pattern out for the next 2 weeks, according to the GFS, and NAM forecast models (the GFS is run 4 times a day, out to 384 hours, or 16 days) So, it doesn't look like there is much in the way of relief from the heavy rain. Obviously alot can change, but the model has been looking consistent for the past few runs, since yesterday.

I copied the following from the National Weather Service office in Iowa City.  It's part of the Area Forecast Discussion.... it's not pretty. 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
DEEP VORTEX THAT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD EVENT TO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD
SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. CAPES WILL BE GREATER THAN
3000 J/KG. SUPERCELLS PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
EARLY STAGES OF THE EVENT AS THE LCL LOWERS TO 2600 FEET BEFORE IT
ALL EVOLVES INTO AN INTENSE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. CURRENTLY
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AS FAR NORTH AS KS WITH 850 MB
DEWPOINT OF 16C AT DDC 00Z JUNE 11. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND
GROUND COMPLETELY SATURATED SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT. HELD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THIS WOULD BE IN THE 3RD/4TH
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. STILL TIME TO EVALUATE LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ISSUE A WATCH LATER TODAY.

(Hint: Click on the blue highlighted words for definitions of the meteoroligical terms.  CAPEs stands for Convective Available Potential Energy, expressed in Joules per Kilogram.... it basically reflects the intensity of any instability in the atmosphere, and the higher the number, the more unstable, but there is no "limit" or "magic number" that indicates when the instability will cause severe weather.  The higher the number, the more unstable, and therefore more likely severe storms will form. 

Just thought I would pass on some weather info....

[Anonymous]

I just got off the horn with a friend of mine who works in downtown Cedar Rapids (9:58 AM 6/11/08).  She said the railroad bridge at 8th Ave. (old MILW bridge) has been destroyed, the former CNW bridge downtown at Quaker Oats (old CNW passenger line) is nearly submerged, and that the Quaker Oats yard is completely under water (the old CNW & ROCK yard).  They've issued mandatory evacuations for the TimeCheck area. 

I clarified this with my friend - she had the Waterloo bridge story (18th St. bridge) confused with the local Cedar Rapids situation.  The rest is confirmed.

[blhanel]

That one's news to me, WIAR, but CRANDIC had rock hoppers parked on it.  Nothing on the local websites yet.  NOAA just upped the crest prediction to 24.5 feet on Friday morning.

Anyone know how to measure cubits?

[Los Angeles Rams Guy]

I wonder if those loaded ballast hoppers on the Crandic bridge would be enough to keep something like that from happening.

Brian, is the new Overland Route mainline bridge over the Cedar going to make it thru this?  

[blhanel]

I wonder if those loaded ballast hoppers on the Crandic bridge would be enough to keep something like that from happening.

Brian, is the new Overland Route mainline bridge over the Cedar going to make it thru this?  

Good question- if I can get out and about tonight, that's one spot I want to get a picture of.  The problem is going to be how to get close enough to get a picture.

[Anonymous]

That one's news to me, WIAR, but CRANDIC had rock hoppers parked on it.  Nothing on the local websites yet.  NOAA just upped the crest prediction to 24.5 feet on Friday morning.

Anyone know how to measure cubits?

I updated my post - my friend had the Waterloo 18th St. bridge mixed-up with local CR news.  The rest in my post was confirmed - the CNW bridge downtown by QO and the yard there are inundated.

[Los Angeles Rams Guy]

First, an update:  The CPRS mainline between Milwaukee and Portage remains O.O.S.

Now I've been reading accounts that the Mississippi River may well indeed get as much as 10-12 feet over flood stage.  Not just sure as to when and where but I would imagine that the CP/ICE and BNSF are going to take some more hits. 

[zardoz]

Anyone know how to measure cubits?

http://www.onlineconversion.com/volume.htm

 

[Anonymous]

I just saw some photos of the former MILW bridge in Cedar Rapids (and naturally I don't have a way to post them).  They were taken just this afternoon (Wed.).  That CRANDIC rock train is still there.  The water looks to be less than 3 ft. under the rails.  Water is still rising.

[blhanel]

First, Third, and 16th Ave. bridges are now closed; Second, Eighth, and lower part of 5-in-1 are expected to be closed before the end of the day, leaving I-380 as the only way to get across the river.  Evacuation has been expanded to all areas within the 500-year flood plan.

[Soo 6604]

Theres a dam in Mukwonago, WI that the local news this morning was saying thats going to fail. Right in the rivers path is the CN mainline. Theyve said when the dam goes, the railroad bridge will go with it also.

The line is the CN Chicago-Superior main located about 20-25 miles SW of Milwaukee on Interstate 43.

I suppose if that bridge is washed out, CN can reroute between Chicago and Duplainville on the CP. Maybe even the UP between Chicago and Milwaukee.

Forecast for that area is 1-2 inches Tomorrow into tomorrow night. For North-Central Wisconsin, supposed to get 4-6 inches with more than 6 inches in areas.

Paul

[Ishmael]

The 5 O'clock news announced predictions for the crests at Winfield on the Mississippi, Clarksville and Alton. Lock and Dams 25, 26 and 27 respectively.These are supposed to be reached a week from Sunday. Sort of a slow-moving disaster, just like 1993.

 

[CShaveRR]

I couldn't find a cubit on Jim's site, Brian, but it's about a foot and a half.

The flooding is definitely affecting us here--we're holding onto cars for North Platte and Des Moines, due primarily (or so I'm told) to a washout at Tama.  I presume that North Platte will have a bunch of trains to send us as well, when the line is opened.  So far, we can still get to Rochelle and Nelson.  Until we get something to do, though, they've taken off a few jobs.  We'll probably be putting the regular jobs on, and a few extras besides, when we have to send the cars out.

Brian, we made up a train for Beverly today, so I'm hoping it'll get through to you.  Thanks to you, I know that the yard's beyond the Cedar River bridge!

I heard a rumor that one of the piers for the new Des Moines River bridge was shifted by a few inches.  Any truth to that, and what will have to be done about it?

[blhanel]

That train for Beverly is not going to make it.

Here's why-

Other images I grabbed while out and about this evening...

The old MILW bridge by Penford is hanging in there so far!

You can still cross the 8th Ave. bridge, but beyond that your choices are becoming increasingly limited:

Penford's working hard to increase their flood protection:

First Ave. West is now under water-

and the bridges are disappearing.

CN's departure yard is now unusable.

And, to make matters more uncertain, when the shut the power off to downtown the battery on the river level monitor didn't kick in, so now they don't know what the level is.  I guess a city crew is on its way to the monitor in a boat to replace the battery.

[Stevo3751]

If the flooding hits BNSF's mainline through northern and western Missouri, their Transcon traffic moving to LA might have to go through Omaha or may even trespass on Union Pacific tracks through the Twin Cities then back through Iowa.

 If you say this is as bad as '93, this is going to be a long summer for the midwestern railroads

[jeffhergert]

I posted about the pier shifting the other day.  I heard it when leaving work, but can't confirm it.  From what I heard, I was under the impression that the shifting might have to do more with erosion from run off than to flooding, but again can't confirm that.

Earlier today there were a couple of crews called for thru trains.  They probably were just moving them out for staging.  A while later, there were only two pool crews on duty, both on ballast trains. 

The worst part at Tama is actually closer to Montour where the railroad crosses the Iowa River.  There is a 4 to 5 mile section that is on low laying land close to the river.  I saw a bulletin for single track pilots for 24 hour operation.  Sounded like they hoped to have one of the tracks, probably #2, back in service then single track thru the last of the current of traffic territory.  

I heard that Denison also was closed again this morning.  The city constructed flood gates over the tracks last year.  They had reopened, then it started raining again.  As I write this another line of severe thunderstorms that have been producing tornados is moving thru western Iowa.  One earlier tonight at Little Sioux, IA, 40+ miles north of Omaha/Co Bluffs hit a scout camp.  There are injuries reported, but so far my local news doesn't know any details.   My weather radio just went off with a severe thunderstom warning to the county next to us.

I last tied up Monday morning at 8AM, 56 times out and am still about 32 times out last time I checked.  My mark keeps falling back.  With Brian's pictures it looks like that mark is going to fall a bit more.

Jeff                  

[Soo 6604]

As I write this another line of severe thunderstorms that have been producing tornados is moving thru western Iowa.  One earlier tonight at Little Sioux, IA, 40+ miles north of Omaha/Co Bluffs hit a scout camp.  There are injuries reported, but so far my local news doesn't know any details.

Jeff                  

My local news said that there were "4 dead and at least 40 injured"

As for the dam in Mukwonago, its still there. Leave it up to the media to hype it up.

[CShaveRR]

Jeff, a while back we had pictures of a UP wreck near Tama; I think two trains were involved.  The surrounding area looked pretty mushy back then; I was wondering whether this is where the blowout occurred.

Brian, when I left work yesterday, the train with the Beverly cars hadn't departed yet.  I'll check this morning to see whether it's still there.

[Los Angeles Rams Guy]

Brian,

Simply some unbelievable pictures you got yesterday.  How the Crandic bridge is managing to hang in there still I don't know.  Your picture of the mainline bridge with cars on both tracks and Jeff's latest post leads me to think that the "Overland Route" is pretty much shut down for all intents and purposes across most of Iowa save for what ballast/work trains and local service they can run.  Freaking unbelievable.  Oh yeah, I heard last night as well about the tornadoes in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa; especially the one that hit the Little Sioux Boy Scout Camp.  So incredibly sad. 

Jeff, I'm guessing things aren't any better in western Iowa either from a rain standpoint after this last bout for both UP and CN.....      

 

[wjstix]

Some areas got another 4" of rain last night / this morning, including parts of Wisconsin already having major flooding issues!!

[jeffhergert]

Jeff, a while back we had pictures of a UP wreck near Tama; I think two trains were involved.  The surrounding area looked pretty mushy back then; I was wondering whether this is where the blowout occurred.

Brian, when I left work yesterday, the train with the Beverly cars hadn't departed yet.  I'll check this morning to see whether it's still there.

Carl, the wreck location is about 5 miles east of where the track is blocked.  There was a spot about 3/4 of a mile west of the wreck site that had run off water running under the track.  The ironic thing is that just a week or two ago they had the undercutter working thru there on track one.  All that new ballast under water.  

The whole area from Chelsea, IA to Montour, IA is in the Iowa River valley.  Chelsea has always been prone to flooding and the US Government offered a buyout to residents a few years ago.  About half took it and moved to higher ground.  Last week, when the waters there were receding from the first go around, one of the old boys who didn't move was out mowing his lawn, at least the part that wasn't underwater.  Last Monday his yard was entirely under water again with the water up to this guy's front door, but not yet into his house.  

I saw on an IAIS list that MDMPR was detouring over the IAIS last night.  I was surprised it took this long to do that.  I think IAIS's problems are on the west side of Des Moines.  There is a flood gate over the tracks there that I'm sure is closed now.   

Jeff    

 

[blhanel]

Latest news from CR this morning: much of the city is without power this morning (obviously not here yet) due to Alliant having to shut down and evacuate the C Street SW power plant.  A levee broke on the NW side, flooding a neighborhood there.  The crest has been revised again to 24.7 feet, but efforts to get the river level monitor back up and running have been unsuccessful, so we don't know how high it currently is.

And this morning's gullywasher added 2+ inches of fresh water to the mix. 

They just announced on the radio that I-80 will have to be closed in Cedar County for a couple of days as water overflows bridges there.

[blhanel]

I just heard unconfirmed reports from a couple of different sources that the old MILW bridge at Penford has failed.  Monitoring the news sites for confirmation.

EDIT:  CONFIRMED.

http://gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080612/NEWS/88202635/1001/NEWS

[Anonymous]

FOX News is reporting the collapse.

[TimChgo9]

This is from the Quad Cities IA NWS office....

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1009 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...A HISTORIC HYDROLOGIC EVENT IS EVOLVING...UNPRECEDENTED RIVER
CRESTS ARE EXPECTED...

.RECORD FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE CEDAR RIVER IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION.

INFORMATION FOR THE IOWA RIVER...IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PAST PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED 24 HOURS INTO THE FUTURE FROM THE
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND
AND FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES .

IAC011-113-130309-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0145.000000T0000Z-080619T1424Z/
/VINI4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.080612T1800Z.080618T0224Z.NR/
1009 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY JUNE 19...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT VINTON.
* UNTIL THURSDAY JUNE 19.
* THERE IS NO CURRENT OBSERVED DATA.
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS  15 FEET.
* FORECAST...CREST AROUND 24 FEET TODAY...THEN BEGIN FALLING SLOWLY

Not looking good for areas west of the Mississippi.  I haven't looked at S. Wisconsin today yet, but, they are getting rained on right now, according to NWS radar.  I remember 1993 quite well, but I don't remember it like this.  So far here where I am, the creeks and rivers are up, but no mention of flooding, say, south of Lake and McHenry counties, as of yet.  Depending on how much rain we get today, (some forecasts, and models say as much as 2.5" ) it could change the equation. 

I have noticed that the frequency of freight trains seems to be lower on the BNSF at the moment.  The first freight train I see every morning, comes in around 8:45 or so, and lately has been rather late.  Is traffic being held up, or rerouted?  Just curious. 

[Los Angeles Rams Guy]

Wow....unbelievable.  It just keeps getting worse.

Brian, with the Crandic bridge now gone can the UP's bridge across the Cedar near Quaker on the old passenger line withstand the fury?  The Overland Route mainline bridge?

For the 3rd day in a row the CP mainline between Milwaukee and Portage is O.O.S. 

 

[blhanel]

The railcars positioned on the UP bridge near Quaker are now half-submerged and reportedly "bobbing".  I would suspect that the same is true on the UP transcon bridge.

We just had another hour-long deluge of rain- I estimate that we've had 3.5" now since 6 AM this morning.

EDIT: They've added a picture to the story on the MILW bridge- click on the link in my previous post.

[TimChgo9]

The railcars positioned on the UP bridge near Quaker are now half-submerged and reportedly "bobbing".  I would suspect that the same is true on the UP transcon bridge.

We just had another hour-long deluge of rain- I estimate that we've had 3.5" now since 6 AM this morning.

Cripes! The footage, and the sattelite photos from Iowa, and Southern Wisconsin are unreal.  Now, with most of Northern IL under a tornado, and flood watch, it is shaping up to be a long day.  They are predicting anywhere from 3" of rain up near the WI border, to 1.5 to 2" as you go south, with the S. Burbs getting about 1"....  I think, for the first time since 1993, Salt Creek near me just may go over it's banks, or come real close.  

The event that struck me was the draining of Lake Delton up at the Wisconsin Dells, that was totally unreal.....

[blhanel]

A couple of updates- our rain total today (since 6 AM) is now up to 3.86 inches according to my weather station, and there's another storm bearing down on us.

NOAA has revised their crest prediction for CR to 33 feet.