Another thought unrelated to transportation is the depletion of nutrients in farm soil as growers plant only those crops which currently command high prices. They formerly rotated crops on the same piece of land and used that method to replenish nutrients the last crop utilized. To offset this loss fertilizers will be necessary which add expense and perhaps have other consequences.
Some growers are already showing concern and have expressed it to me.
The tankcars are shipper-controlled, so if they go to storage there is no net effect on the railroad companies themselves. Ethanol tankcars can be used for petroluem commodities, but might require some conversion to adapt them. There would indeed be a glut of 29,000 gallon tankcars unless some other commodity appears on the scene that could use them.
I can't think of any other effect on the railroad industry should the business disappear -- the infrastructure to handle ethanol is being paid for by the ethanol shippers and receivers. The revenue is nice but it's not huge.
RWM
The debate continues over the future of ethanol. Food prices are going up as more grain goes into gas tanks.
Ethanol has been a creature of political subsidy. If political will fades with food price unrest, etc. many doubt ethanol will survive. Other challenges may come from alternative fuels compatible with current petroleum pipe lines. What happens if the bubble bursts?
Most of the ethanol moving long distance does so by rail. Are cars used to carry ethanol compatible with many other commodities? If ethanol dies, will there be glut of tank cars?
Other than equipment, what other ripple effects on the rail industry should ethanol go bust?
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