Yellowstone volcano-What would it do to the MR industry?

[CNJ831]

There has been a prodigous run of "disaster" shows on PBS, TLC, and DSC over past past couple of years, perhaps spurred by the populations' reaction to 9/11. If one steps back for a moment and views any of these shows in the perspective of how often the events have occurred over the interval of time homosapiens have been around, absolutely all concern about such things should vannish. Such mega events are so exceedingly rare that none has happened for certain since man became recognizable as such. Likewise, the variability in the time span between such events is currently so uncertain and the signs one is coming so poorly understood, that they are probably of no real concern for thousands of generations of man to come.

I place all these show in the same category as the religous lunatics that stand on street corners declaring the second coming is just around the corner (and have been doing so for at least a thousand years!). Perhaps several centuries from now, when we have actually have an understanding of exactly how and why the Earth changes over many eons, predictions or discussions of such events might be meaningful. Currently they really are not. If you're smart, you'll pass on watching such drivel and go work on your layout instead.

CNJ831

[canazar]

QUOTE: Originally posted by dharmon

Vic...

I think you just described the current state of my layout.....exploded mountians, thick dust covering everything, poor lighting and the the sounds of my wife yelling at me when she runs into it with somthing that can probably be heard in central China.....

Now thats just funny.[:D][:D]. Good one

[philnrunt]

Hmmmmm, tons and tons of vlacanic a***hat when mixed with water turns to cement? Indiana in the line of potential ashfall? Sounds like its time to start planning that outdoor layout, what with all of the scenery material we will have- and all for free!
I tend to agree with those that say IF it happens, MRing might not be at the top of the priority list, eating might just take precedence.
And Yellowstone is still my top of the list destination for next year. Sure would be a spectacular way to go out, huh?

[METRO]

The thing that everyone seems to be omitting here is the last half-hour of the special. Currently there is NO EVIDENCE that Yellowstone is preparing to erupt and if it were we would have quite a few warning signs. The odds of the event occurring as they did in the doccu-drama are so astronomic that it is actually more likely that a major killer object from space will blast us, and that's just not the type of thing that happens at teatime every day.

I just completed some rather deep geology courses at my fair university and according to the geologists at my school; the most disquieting activity currently going on is all along the eastern side of the Australian Plate. There have been three very large quakes, including the one that produced the Indian Ocean tsunami, have occurred within the last half-year. I was actually lucky enough to be present at the seismograph monitoring station during two of them.

But once again, current trends indicate that we are NOT overdue for an eruption of the Yellowstone caldera and the swelling/contracting cycle currently being observed is well within the normal resting parameters.

~METRO

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind, nobody can accurately predict volcano behavior (yet). Remember a couple of months ago, with the tremors in the Mt. St. Helens area, scientists were saying that a large eruption was imminent (within days).

About a month later, they changed their minds...

I'll keep yellowstone in the back of my mind, but like someone said - it's not like we can DO anything about it.

Rob

[stokesda]

I think if something like what was in the movie happened in real life, MR would be the least of our worries. Seems like the moral of the story was that if the worst case scenario were to happen, the best anybody can really do is put your head between your legs and kiss your you-know-what "goodbye."

[dharmon]

Darn it....now I'm going to have to get rid of the layout so I can start stockpiling MREs, water and ammunition....ugh!

[dinwitty]

I tend to believe the earth is in a slow cooling mode since its "birth" and volcano activity would be slowing down, slowly, but the continetal moves and so on keep things active, if there would be potential explosions of the super-volcanoes, I would be sure we would have some warning signs before it happens.

[Bikerdad]

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2005/docudrama.html

The challenge for transportation systems will be in clearing the ash before it "sets up" a la cement. Overland would see a run on their Jordan Spreaders.

[Anonymous]

[sigh] That program was on ABC TV in Australia yesterday - word gets around - eventually!

Didn't anyone hear the geologist say that the Yellowstone supervolcano could blow anywhere between now and the next 100 000 years? The last supervolcano blast was around 70 000 years ago when only a few humans were around (probably a lot less afterwards!). Lets hope the next one comes later rather than earlier!

By the way, for those who like to worry, there is a huge chunk of mountain in the Canary Islands teetering over the Atlantic, which is well past its overdue date from sliding into the sea. That would produce a massive tsunami which would wipe out most of the cities on the east coast of the USA. Apparently all it needs is just a small local earthquake to set it off.
Funny that - I was on holiday in Lanzarote in the Canaries a couple of years ago and the landscape looked like the moon - with a few palm trees! Seems there are 110 volcanoes on that small island alone. A restaurant at the volcanic park actually uses the heat from a vent to cook their food on a big barbecue! It looks like a large well with a grill on top! - no bucket, though!

Mind you if any of these go off, I think model railroading would be the least of our worries!

[selector]

While it is hardly a joking matter, we would all have to model underground railways! [(-D]

[steveblackledge]

just posted this in the coffee shop, it is a news release from some Russian Geologists and other folk. It seams that we may see something VERY BAD sooner than we thought possible,
released late yesterday

Huge Earthquake, tsunami and Volcano expected North West Sumatra
(13.04.2005)

The area around the Island of Sumatra in Indonesia continues to be hit by earthquakes of various magnitudes and there are fears that this may be a prelude to something much bigger.


Seismic readings have shown that an area West of the Northern area of Sumatra (below the Ocean floor) is still very active and earthquakes have been recorded at various magnitudes. There seems to be a tremendous pressure building as the Continental plates push into each other and the question is, which area will be affected most by the end result?

Logic, and the results we are seeing now, suggest that Sumatra will end up the loser in this battle.

It is our belief that a new earthquake (possibly the largest ever recorded in modern times) will again occur just off the West coast of Northern Sumatra, which will result in a tsunami perhaps 80 meters high (near the epicenter) and this will trigger a volcanic eruption on the Island itself. Many of the smaller Islands off the west coast of Sumatra may be lost completely.

There has already been a minor eruption at Mount Talang, which is just some 40 kilometers east of the coastal capital of West Sumatra province, Padang. However, it is our opinion that a larger eruption will happen slightly further North near Toba.

As many will already know, Toba on Sumatra was the location of the last super-volcano to erupt, which almost caused the extinction of mankind 74,000 years ago. Another super-volcano exists under Yellowstone National Park and this has been showing signs of changes.

Whilst a large earthquake near Sumatra could cause the deaths of millions, a super-volcano, like that under Yellowstone, would almost certainly leave no survivors at all (in a fairly short time).

It is impossible to predict when Sumatra can expect the next big quake, but we feel that this is very close. It could happen tomorrow, next week, or next month, but we feel sure it will happen soon..

Perhaps the worse scenario of such a large earthquake would be the effects it has on other areas of the planet. The biggest danger would be the eruption of a super-volcano and although the one under Yellowstone hasn't erupted for 640,000 years, there are signs that this may happen again (the fourth time in just over 2 million years).
(there are signs of activity below Toba, it's being watched very carefully)

[Anonymous]

If Yellowstone blows we might have to rely on Yellowstones to power our railroads.

*Buh-dum-bum-bump tisk*

[vsmith]

QUOTE: Originally posted by johncolley

Do the recent seismic occurances in Indonesia ring a bell? The Pacific Ring of Fire is a very real condition. Anyone remember Krakatoa? We humans have a tendency to get all excited about things over which we have no control. Example: the current buzz words, "Global Warming". hint, we are between two ice ages, DUH! This old blue ball has been around a lot longer, and been thru a lot more than we can comprehend, what gives us the right to conclude that we are in control of anything?

See my post above, BTW another thing about the mideavil Krakatoa eruptio. As far as geologist can determine, before 1055 a.d. there was NO Straight of Sumatra....Java and Sumatra were one continous land mass, that is until Krakatoa blew out a whole new way go get from one side of the island to another![:0]

[Anonymous]

I watch those diaster shows sometimes. I've started to shy away from them though, it's just too scary to think about.

[dharmon]

QUOTE: Originally posted by johncolley
[br
Anyone remember Krakatoa?

Personally or historically?

[johncolley]

Do the recent seismic occurances in Indonesia ring a bell? The Pacific Ring of Fire is a very real condition. Anyone remember Krakatoa? We humans have a tendency to get all excited about things over which we have no control. Example: the current buzz words, "Global Warming". hint, we are between two ice ages, DUH! This old blue ball has been around a lot longer, and been thru a lot more than we can comprehend, what gives us the right to conclude that we are in control of anything?

[Anonymous]

MTH would respond that they have patent rights on all post volcano model trains and they would then sue FEMA for not responding quickly enough to getting the electricy back on so hobbyists could convert to DCS

[dharmon]

Vic...

I think you just described the current state of my layout.....exploded mountians, thick dust covering everything, poor lighting and the the sounds of my wife yelling at me when she runs into it with somthing that can probably be heard in central China.....

[vsmith]

Known about this for years, almost became a Geologist when I was younger but I didnt want to work for Exxon. Yellowstone's not the only potential "super-Volcano" in the US, there are several, including the Long Valley caldera here in eastern California.

If Yellowstone did blow as historic deposits describe there could be ash fall as far east as Chicago, light could dissappear as the ash plume could cover an area the size of 3/4's of the country. Wyoming could be buried in anywhere from 10 to 300 feet of ash! Catastrophic for anyone within 300 miles of the caldera, very low possiblity of survival just due to the shear amount of ash fall and pyroclastic flows that would incinerate most of the nearby countryside. Not much better for anyone else outside that area as it would be almost impossible to travel as roads would dissappear under ash and no or little light. This is all based on past geologic deposits, remember when the volcanic island of Krakatoa blew itself to pieces in 1883 the "sound" of the expolsion was heard as far away as central China and recent archeological and geoligic discoveries had led scientist to believe that airborne ash from a Super-volcano sized eruption again at Krakatoa in the Java Straight of Sumata on the far side of the world in the year 1055 darkened the skies across Europe, blocking the sun, lowering tempuratures, killing crops, bringing starvation, and creating what we now call "the Dark Ages" because they turned out to be literally "dark" for about 3 years!


If Yellowstone blew like its historic past indicates its capable of, we as a nation, are simply NOT prepared to deal with it, I cant think of anynation that is. This would be on the same level of a asteroid collision, not an ELE, but it would be catastrophic for the US for several years. Given the lack of volcanic activity currently at Yellowstone, we most likely will not see this kind of event in our lifetimes though, hopefully!

[cwclark]

I saw it...and if it happens..what are you going to do about it?...im sure it will disrupt more than the hobby..probably life as we know it...Chuck

[Anonymous]

I think I saw that one - was on BBC a while ago. Did it have an argumentative Scottish vulcanologist in it? if so it was the same programme. I thought it was very good - I read about the nature of Yellowstone in a book a year or so ago. The worrying part is that apparently last time it blew the ash got pretty much worldwide - they found traces everywhere. New York (or the place where New York now is) was pretty much buried in it. It would probably cripple rail operations for months if not years - fine ash isn't good news for engines to begin with, and the resulting "fallout" would clog everything. It would have to be cleared by shovel really - volcanic ash doesn't behave like snow so you couldn't use plows on it. You'd probably see old locos being hauled out of museums and hastily repaired to cover for losses, and maybe some being imported.

In MRR terms, Hornby would corner the market through having their HQ over here and their factories in China, Dapol would become the second largest manufacturer through having all their production here in Wales, and my MRR budget for the year would have to be spent on snow tyres and a suspension lift kit to cope with the resulting ice age...

[Anonymous]

Several years ago just before Mount St. Helens blew her top the Today Show had a different guest on each day to say what MIGHT happen if Mount St. Helens blew. I was working morning control room duty in an NBC affiliate at the time so I had no choice but to watch Tom Brokaw interview these guys. I remember our crew's amusement when the guest of the day exactly 180 degrees contradicted the guest from the day before and Brokaw just kept asking straight questions like he'd never even heard the first guy's comments. In fact, a couple of days later the mountain blew BIG TIME. None of the screwey stuff either one of those guys predicted happened. I suspect if Yellowstone goes super nova Wyoming and Montana will sustain some serious damage and crop growing conditions for some distance could be impacted. Beer drinkers take note: Much of the hops for Coors is grown by tea totaling Mormon Farmers in Northern Wyoming. If Yellowstone goes you might have to switch to Budweiser.

If you're looking for an interesting conversation piece on a layout and you live nowhere near Wyoming or Montana but model the Union Pacific or BN one of those very conventional looking grain elevators lettered "Coors" instead of CO-OP or "Smith Grain Company" might be interesting. The first time I drove through that area I had to ask why Coors would own grain elevators. Might get some interestering questions from your visiting observers.

Cheers,

Ed

Cheers,

Ed

[Anonymous]

Now that's scary!!!
But only God knows whats going to happen!!

[ac4400fan]

Yes i did watch that movie ,thought it was very interesting, and you are right ,what a impact the R.R would suffer,i would there would be a temporary, open track rights, to avoid, losses, of locos ,going to the north, to southeast. to be stored,but i think it would survive,and open up many..of jobs,cause all the computer,controlled,functions,would be down,and they would have to resort back to old time railroading,i dont think,theres that kind of training,and might have to go threw alot,, ( hopefully,this wont happen)

carl ....

[RoyalOaker]

I saw most of that. It was a worst case scenario of what may happen someday. Pretty scary stuff.

I thought that if it happens then it would send the whole world into an ice age because it would block out most of the sun? Just like Mt Pinitobo(sp) that caused our summer to be below average, only the yellowstone scenario was like 1000 times bigger.

Basically, every industry everywhere would be out of luck. And so would we.

[trainboyH16-44]

Did anyone else see the program on discovery channel last sunday, or was it just me? Basically what it said was that their is a potential for Yelowstone to become a supervolcano, and render useless a large amount of the western U.S., such as Denver, Salt lake city, and most of the grain belt.
I can't start to imagine the tremendous losses that railways would suffer. UP and BNSF would undoubtably lose many locos to the volcanic ash, and us modellers would have our precision locos grinding from the ash spread across the country. [:(] The U.S. economy may collapse, and then where would our good locos come from? GE might have to shut down, but the Canadian economy might keep going, and GMD would be fine. What do you think would happen[?]