Lastspikemike Drifting back towards being on topic I observe that some price increases for what you'd think were unchanged models might be due to less competition now for the type and quality of model than was the case when the models first came out. Another factor for models no longer made is the Ferrari effect: they only made so many of whatever and some versions either were more popular at the time but production stopped before demand was satisfied or the particular model became more popular after production ceased. That may explain price changes that differ from cost of living price changes.
Drifting back towards being on topic I observe that some price increases for what you'd think were unchanged models might be due to less competition now for the type and quality of model than was the case when the models first came out.
Another factor for models no longer made is the Ferrari effect: they only made so many of whatever and some versions either were more popular at the time but production stopped before demand was satisfied or the particular model became more popular after production ceased. That may explain price changes that differ from cost of living price changes.
I saved the 50th anniversary edition of the Walthers catalog and when the 75th anniversary edition came out, I compared the prices of random items to what they had been 25 years earlier. It was difficult to compare locos because those had changed so much so I compared like items such as structure kits or KD couplers. For the most part, the items were in line with inflation. A few a little more expensive and a few a little cheaper. The one big exception was the Instant Horizon backdrops. They were selling for exactly the same price they had been 25 years earlier. My theory is most of the expense for those was creating the originals and once that was recovered, they could be printed quite cheaply and sold profitably without ever raising the price. Since then, the price on them has increased but still cheaper than they had been when adjusted for inflation.
I can tell you about cypto. In simple terms you have a cyber item of a set quanity and it goes up and down with demand. It is protected by a blockchain (which some say is a new concept but it is not, just digital now which makes it more usefull). Some say it is what will do away with common currency, like the goverments of the world will accept that, maybe their own but not someone elses.
Lastspikemike Money supply equals money quantity x velocity of exchange by definition. However, the calculation can only ever be an estimate. Other "things" are treated as money equivalents by us temperamental humans. These throw out the mathematical notion that money supply is a determinable thing. Quantity is basically determined by the required reserve ratio: the banking example led to runaway inflation before the regulations prohibited banks from re-lending the whole $10 every time. More like $9 now. Inflation tends to increase the velocity of money (the aphorism bad money drives out good being an extreme example of this phenomenon) and deflation tends to reduce or slow the velocity of money. Both conditions are inherently unstable. The economist magazine either developed or made popular the Big Mac Index which is a formal calculation of the hamburger example. And surprisingly accurate in its limited way.
Money supply equals money quantity x velocity of exchange by definition. However, the calculation can only ever be an estimate. Other "things" are treated as money equivalents by us temperamental humans. These throw out the mathematical notion that money supply is a determinable thing.
Quantity is basically determined by the required reserve ratio: the banking example led to runaway inflation before the regulations prohibited banks from re-lending the whole $10 every time. More like $9 now.
Inflation tends to increase the velocity of money (the aphorism bad money drives out good being an extreme example of this phenomenon) and deflation tends to reduce or slow the velocity of money. Both conditions are inherently unstable.
The economist magazine either developed or made popular the Big Mac Index which is a formal calculation of the hamburger example. And surprisingly accurate in its limited way.
I stopped at MacDonald's yesterday and just for grins I got an old fashioned meal, two hamburgers, small fries, and a small shake. They don't even list the regular hamburger on the menu board any more but you can get it on request. I remember back in the 1970s they had an ad campaign that you could get a meal of a hamburger, french fries, and shake and get change for your dollar. My order had an extra hamburger and came to $5.16. $1.19 apiece for the hamburgers and $1.89 apiece for the fries and shake. The shake was about half the size of our shakes back in 1968 although they did top it with whipped cream. Back then I would have paid 20 cents apiece for the hamburgers, 18 cents for the fries and 25 cents for the shake for a total of 83 cents. Hamburgers have increased in price by a factor of 6 but fries have gone up by 10 and a half times and the smaller shake is 7 and a half times. It shows that other factors figure into price increases other than just inflation. Not sure why fries would increase by so much more than the hamburgers but they have. It seemsThe hamburgers aren't quite as good as what they used to be and that is a product of how they are made. We used to toast the tops and bottoms of the buns on the grill and the bottoms were moved on top of the patties after they had been flipped and that steamed the buns as well. Now the patties are cooked ahead of time and slapped on a bun.
For most people it's easier to understand economic principles if you oversimplify them. It's always a bit more complicated but the principle is still the same. One of these days I'm going to learn how bitcoin and other crypto currencies work. Right now I have no clue.
Ok. Been reading the replies to my op and I think some got the point I was making, and some didnt. Thats all good though. Sparks conversation!
That being said, the reply of an accurail kit in 91 vs 2021 is making the point completely. The KIT has not changed enough to justify the starting price to begin at todays RTR price. That was where I was going with the question.
On another note, since this was an ebay buy also, I just received a Scaletrains 9-44CW or whatever bla, bla, bla in the Rivet Counter series. Brand new in the box which I paid $169 for. Great price, beautiful loco and will test it out later. For the money I spent, I got a real bargain. This loco is stunningly nice!! I did not pay $300++ for it either. Bargains are to be had wherever you look, I was willing to pay the price because it was well below the msrp. A good example of todays detail, tooling, paint etc., at a price that would be normal 10 yrs ago for a nicely detailed item.
Ive said all this as a matter of opinion. I am willing to pay lower than normal price for a very nice model of todays quality. I am just baffled however, why someone would ask TODAYS price for YESTERYEARS not so great quality??
Just my rambling I suppose. I have boxes of yesterdays quality kits that I might need to post up for sale for todays going price and cash in to buy more very high quality pieces of equipment. lol
Doughless Ebay prices have increased, and I think it is directly related to their new selling managed payments program. The new program as weeded out minor garage sale type of resellers and the listings I see are generally store fronts. They have driven up the prices and now the mom and pops are taking their lead, IMO. I don't even bother with ebay much anymore. I haven't noticed the big internet train stores increasing prices much.
Ebay prices have increased, and I think it is directly related to their new selling managed payments program. The new program as weeded out minor garage sale type of resellers and the listings I see are generally store fronts. They have driven up the prices and now the mom and pops are taking their lead, IMO.
I don't even bother with ebay much anymore.
I haven't noticed the big internet train stores increasing prices much.
Without any LHS anywhere near me, eBay is my LHS. I won't be abandoning it any time soon.
Rich
Alton Junction
LastspikemikeAnd, get this, buying a Big Mac and eating it destroys both the money used to buy it and as well the Big Mac you ate.
No, the money goes into the McDonalds corporate environment. It is just not yours anymore.
Just because something is not yours, does not mean it does not exist. Is this how you really see the world?
I am very surprised you made such an obvious blunder.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
LastspikemikeYou were just fine up to the word "creates"
Yes, I should have said "produces".
LastspikemikeThere is a probability, very tiny but not zero, that all the buzzing around bits and all the spaces will align on one occasion and allow a person to walk through a "solid" wall...which isn't, just btw. We at least know that for sure.
Still nonzero, technically. But if your knowledge of probabilistic mechanics were better than your knowledge of quantum physics, you'd appreciate that it conveys no insight into the nature of either 'energy' or 'matter'.
I was planning on bidding on a hunk of matter...that had wheels...on ebay, but the price got too high.
- Douglas
But the price of mass certainly has been increasing.
(OTOH, the price of energy has been relatively stable)
davidmurray maxman Well, since everyone is being nitpickey, this is not exactly a correct statement. Mass can neither be created or destroyed. They still exist, but in a different form. A nuclear reactor converts mass into energy, destroying mass in the process.
maxman Well, since everyone is being nitpickey, this is not exactly a correct statement. Mass can neither be created or destroyed. They still exist, but in a different form.
A nuclear reactor converts mass into energy, destroying mass in the process.
I don't think so. The reactor causes water to boil, turning it into steam, which drives a turbine, which drives a generator, which creates the energy.
Besides, if the mass were destroyed, there would not be any nuclear waste.
In the end you pay what you are willing or able to afford. /solved.
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
SeeYou190 maxman And there were 9 bids on that car? What was the next lowest bid? This is the bidding history. I was planning to spend up to $65.00 for this one, I guess I am living in a different universe. -Kevin
maxman And there were 9 bids on that car? What was the next lowest bid?
This is the bidding history.
I was planning to spend up to $65.00 for this one, I guess I am living in a different universe.
Simon
maxmanWell, since everyone is being nitpickey, this is not exactly a correct statement. Mass can neither be created or destroyed. They still exist, but in a different form.
LazersHi, If anyone would care to check-out ebay uk, 'HO Wagons' (location - UK only) I'd be very interested to read your opinions of prices for used gear, over here. Since the Pandemic, prices have sky-rocketed, despite a much greater availability of used stock, possibly estates of former modellers?
I have been trying to buy an undecorated OO scale "Wonderful Wagon" for about six months. The prices are paralyzing.
maxmanMass can neither be created or destroyed. They still exist, but in a different form.
There is no way anyone can argue with that.
There is something else besides inflation.Model railroad goods are not necessities; they are discretionary spending. In the discretionary market, if you sell out, raise your prices, because you've left money on the table.
Prices wouldn't keep going up if people weren't buying.
Disclaimer: This post may contain humor, sarcasm, and/or flatulence.
Michael Mornard
Bringing the North Woods to South Dakota!
maxmanAnd there were 9 bids on that car? What was the next lowest bid?
SeeYou190Drugs/Cigarettes eventually get used and no longer exist.
Well, since everyone is being nitpickey, this is not exactly a correct statement. Mass can neither be created or destroyed. They still exist, but in a different form.
Hi, If anyone would care to check-out ebay uk, 'HO Wagons' (location - UK only) I'd be very interested to read your opinions of prices for used gear, over here.
Since the Pandemic, prices have sky-rocketed, despite a much greater availability of used stock, possibly estates of former modellers?
Especially Hi-Cubes 50' & 60'. "Rails of Sheffield" who have a very large inventory of HO stock are asking nearly £50.00 for Excel Cubes. 60' TTX Boxcars are purchased within hours of being listed - by British (& possibly European) modellers who do not have ready access to these items in their local UK model shop (OO scale rules the shelves)
Even E&C Shops 50' Hi-Cubes. One dealer has some un-built kits for £24.99 ($34.70) 18 months ago, I purchased 3 of these for £9.95 each - about right.
Un-built Athearn B/B 4-Bay ACF covered Hoppers have been selling for @£16.00 ($22.00) + Postage. 3 years ago I was picking these up for less than the postage.
IMO, many UK Sellers do not have a clue about realistic prices - because they are not Modellers. Just dealers in S/Hand anythings. Athearn B/B GP 38-2 for £70 ($97.20) anyone. Even I know UK dealers where I could get one for £20.00
I have aquired 4 No. Accurail 3-Bay Hoppers, for @£9.00 each. The most recent was of course, "Reading Lines". Paul
"It's the South Shore Line, Jim - but not as we know it".
SeeYou190I have no explanation for this craziness:
And there were 9 bids on that car? What was the next lowest bid?
snjroyPrices do appear to have increased on Ebay.
DoughlessEbay prices have increased.
My only evidence I have seen of this is that I am winning a lot fewer auctions than I used to.
I believe this is a pretty strong indicator that things are getting pricier on eBay. A lot of product is going for more than I am willing to pay. I used to win a lot more auctions.
This is not scientific by any means, just my personal experience.
I have no explanation for this craziness:
Lastspikemike Athearn BB locomotives, for example, cannot show this effect because the design has been improved and the cost of manufacture reduced (total cost from the raw material to your track actually). Current versions of these models are superior in every way to the older BB models.
Athearn BB locomotives, for example, cannot show this effect because the design has been improved and the cost of manufacture reduced (total cost from the raw material to your track actually). Current versions of these models are superior in every way to the older BB models.
That's why I used the same, unchanged product over 30 years as a reference. Those Accurail kits are the same in 2021 and they were in 1991, except there's a little baggie with different couplers that didn't exist then. They still give you the old couplers too.
In the May 1991 issue, there's a review of a Faller farm house kit imported by Walthers. Walthers currently markets this same kit as the Tillman Farm House. Having recently built the Walthers kit and studying the photos in the review, the only change is the plastic colors. In 1991, it was $19.49. The current offering is $34.98. This is actually modestly lower than the rate of inflation, which would indicate a projected price of $37.90. Perhaps the price difference can be accounted for via casting the kit in three colors instead of five. But, the 2021 price is largely in line with what would be expected.
All thing are supply demand. As RTR DCC has risen the price of decoders has gone down when comparing apples to apples. If sudenly there is a glut of whatever, then the price will go down. During the virus at one time you could get the best steaks for real cheap and toilet paper would have gone through the roof if not for laws to limit gauging.
Economic theories have their limitations... but prices do appear to have increased on Ebay. What a surprise: a bunch of us forced to stay put during a pandemic (many with a fixed income), with nothing to do except for watching TV and doing indoor hobbies. And no competition from in-person shows. The demand is there! Add to that disrupted value-chains that delay production of new items... No wonder prices for used hobby items online have gone up. My pet peeve is the shipping costs from some suppliers on Ebay (and others). It's mind boggling how these costs have gone up in the last 15 years. Paypal, on the other hand, has been a blessing and has diversified the supplier base.
As Kevin would say, that's where a "lifetime supply" situation really helps. My stash of un-built kits is slowly going down. I have a ton of kits, glue, and I'm learning how to mix my own paint. I'm probably good for another 3 years - the only real headache is getting decoders. That I don't have a supply of.
I say be patient. There is no reason to believe that the costs of used MR items won't stabilize or even go down in the next few years.
John-NYBWThe years was 1968 and gas usually fluctuated between 28 and 32 cents a gallon unless there was a gas war between stations in the same area. A hamburger was 20 cents, cheeseburger 25 cents,
My non-scientific observations are that a gallon of gasoline and a gallon of milk are usually pretty close.
LastspikemikeDrugs in prison environments show this basic character of money.
No they do not. Drugs/Cigarettes eventually get used and no longer exist. This example would only be true if eventually somebody who had money burned it for pleasure. I have heard the cigarettes in prison nonsense my entire life, and I am still amazed that people repeat this silliness.
Geez, John-NYBY..............you just took me back to 1965 to night classes at Chicago's DePaul University. I only wish the finance and economic courses made more sense to me back then......
ENJOY !
Mobilman44
Living in southeast Texas, formerly modeling the "postwar" Santa Fe and Illinois Central
I worked for a large bank for several years, long enough to learn how the banking system actually creates money through this very simplistic example. Person A has ten dollars and buys goods from Person B who deposits that ten dollars into his bank. The bank loans that money to Person C who uses it to make a purchase from Person D who deposits it in his bank. That bank loans the money to Person E who buys something from Person F who deposits it in his bank. That ten dollars that started in the pocket of Person A is now in the bank accounts of B, D, and F. The banks have outstanding loans on their books to C and E. In a vibrant economy, money gets circulated over and over. What happened in the first decade of this century is the circulation slowed to a crawl. Money went on strike. Less capital investment, less purchasing, less production.
As far as inflation goes, I go back to my first job at MacDonald's and compare the prices to various items to what they are now as well as what a gallon of gas cost. The years was 1968 and gas usually fluctuated between 28 and 32 cents a gallon unless there was a gas war between stations in the same area. A hamburger was 20 cents, cheeseburger 25 cents, filet-o-fish was 30 cents, and the fairly new Big Mac was 49 cents. The cost of all these items has pretty much been in line with inflation with the exception of the file-o-fish which is significantly more expensive except during Lent when the have their 2 for $5 deal. In 1968 the cost of that sandwich was roughly equivalent to a gallon of gas. At 2 for $5, it still was but not at the normal price.