Just my opinion, as someone who has been self employed most of my life, but anyone running a business like this with any measureable debt is crazy.
And maybe that is the problem, too many bank notes due.........
20 years in business and my debt has never exceeded my monthly cash flow........
Sitting on a little inventory that you actually own is different from sitting on inventory that belongs to the bank........
Sheldon
As far as wanting steam engines, Rapido has offered some nice Canadian small-er sized steam engines, and I think they are not all a "go" as the pre-orders have not been there, despite Rapido's reputation for quality.
I have it on good authority, from Richard Bennett, a moderator of one of the forums over on facebook, who is personally tight with the owner of Boo Rim in Korea (as in buys parts directly from them in large quantities) that small steam engines are just plain dead--most especially in brass. Other than what Rapido is offering, and BLI's products, there are virtually no more in the pipeline because there are just not enough buyers out there for any one version of a prototype, period. SP's multi-colored small switchers are very popular, complicated to do, and have already been done in brass. They literally go for $2000 or more each for little 0-6-0's.
There is a Rio Grande 4-6-2 and 2-8-2 in the pipeline in brass, advertised at $1200 currently, that will be $2000...
Richard is saying you can get any steam engine you want made at 100 units and at a $2000 price point, but that's the problem. There aren't 100 people to buy it UNLESS it is a Big Boy, a C&O H-8, an early version UP Challenger, or a DM&IR yellowstone 2-8-8-4, or a cab forward.
Forget doing another B&O EM-1 unless it's brass: Bachmann's was fantastic! And they are still out there to be found new in box.
So even in brass we are going to ONLY see LARGE steam engines in the future. The sales are just not there for anything else.
BLI and Rapido will be able to provide some of the smaller steam, but they are going to be very careful as to what they choose.
John
PRR8259 One importer has told me straight out they'd much rather leave profit on the table than have unsold inventory tying up their money. John
One importer has told me straight out they'd much rather leave profit on the table than have unsold inventory tying up their money.
Do you have any sense about their timeline that defines "unsold" inventory? If unsold means that it doesn't sell in a month, or...ever? I would think they would like the extra capital the later sale provides considering its nearly all profit...IOW...more capital to sock away into the company over time.
If you leave profit on the table, you are reducing the amount of capital-build that can be used to reinvest in more product...or build two products instead of one next time.
Interesting.
- Douglas
PRR8259small steam engines are just plain dead
That sounds accurate.
I would love a quality Bachmann undecorated generic looking coal burning 4-6-0 comparable to my EM-1. A decent looking ten-wheeler in brass (NYC F-12) will sell for $500.00 and up if you can find one. If Bachmann hit the market with a good one at $300.00, I might be one of ten people that would buy it in 12 months.
There is no appeal in the current market for small steamers.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
Kevin--
Now we have a challenge with "generic" looking steam power. Mantua made lots of it years ago. It is being re-released or has been re-released under various labels including Model Power.
The challenge is that with today's uber-detail-focused product reviews there are many folks who "don't want" generic steam, but instead want it "correct" for "their" railroad.
Many current hobbyists want just one and only one steam engine on their roster, and they are totally fine (and in their minds prototypically correct) if it is a currently operable fantrip engine and not something "in working condition" representing the age when they ran every day.
Not only do they want a Big Boy, but they want it to be 4014. Or Challenger 3985...or...well C&O 1309 is about to be very hot!
So generic smaller steam is becoming a very tough sell. There are 4-6-0's out there, even older brass...I think Bachmann even has or recently had a 4-6-0. I had the 2-8-0 version of it, same boiler?.
PRR8259 Pacific Western Rail Services told me straight out, on the phone, years ago, that "unsold" is after 3 weeks in country. At that time it becomes VERY difficult to sell the remainder. Others like my friends at one importer have concurred with their assessment. John
Pacific Western Rail Services told me straight out, on the phone, years ago, that "unsold" is after 3 weeks in country. At that time it becomes VERY difficult to sell the remainder. Others like my friends at one importer have concurred with their assessment.
You may be talking about brass. I would think that is even a narrower market, and one that is served by what I would call hand built products. Kinda like a Morgan 2 +2 auto where someone might order it, then its made after the order is received.
I was talking about more run of the mill products. Like a high optioned BMW. Not even a bread and butter Chevy (like a Bachmann). Neither gets produced from pre-orders. They get made to sit in inventory to sell within whatever time frame they've built into their inventory holding costs.
Maybe these smaller niche item model railroad producers are building stuff even more rare than a small market luxury car. A niche market, not a small market. I guess made-to-order items is what these niche model producers live on.
I'm talking about both.
BLI and Rapido have both done very well with the products they have chosen to offer. Most have been homeruns. They chose USRA engines that many roads had-a no brainer, really. BLI and Rapido are still having issues getting reservations or pre-orders for products you would think would be a "slam dunk" success.
Small steam is just dying.
In brass, more so.
People on this thread have bemoaned: "Oh, another Big Boy". Well the facts are that in brass and in diecast or plastic or even brass hybrid, and at all the detail levels in between, Big Boys sell--they just do. And cab forwards and challengers and big fan trip 4-8-4's and a handful of other engines still sell.
If it was my money I'd be making the big mamma jamma's too because it's a guaranteed sale.
But small steam...not much anymore.
Athearn's manufacturer reportedly "lost" some of the tooling for the non-streamlined SP 4-8-2. It was a great plastic engine! Did anybody besides me on any internet forum even miss it or care after that one initial product run years ago now?????
PRR8259 I'm talking about both. BLI and Rapido have both done very well with the products they have chosen to offer. Most have been homeruns. They chose USRA engines that many roads had-a no brainer, really. BLI and Rapido are still having issues getting reservations or pre-orders for products you would think would be a "slam dunk" success. Small steam is just dying. In brass, more so. People on this thread have bemoaned: "Oh, another Big Boy". Well the facts are that in brass and in diecast or plastic or even brass hybrid, and at all the detail levels in between, Big Boys sell--they just do. And cab forwards and challengers and big fan trip 4-8-4's and a handful of other engines still sell. If it was my money I'd be making the big mamma jamma's too because it's a guaranteed sale. But small steam...not much anymore. Athearn's manufacturer reportedly "lost" some of the tooling for the non-streamlined SP 4-8-2. It was a great plastic engine! Did anybody besides me on any internet forum even miss it or care after that one initial product run years ago now????? John
Maybe that, and all this preorder low production business, is just proof that the hobby of "Model Railroading" is actually dying in favor of "Model Train Collecting".
I'm not intersted in that second hobby...........
Oh, that's right, I have NEVER, in 54 years, owned a model of a Big Boy........
Why? I don't model the Union Pacific........
I think you're pointing to the difference here. I doubt that companies who produce Big Boys bother to gauge the market by sending out pre-order surveys. They just build them, figuring enough demand is there now, and not worried that the demand won't be there two years from now.
If a company is taking pre-orders, they are essentially saying they will not build the model unitl they get enough orders. That tells me they chose to be in the made-to-order part of the business. That isn't the same thing as saying that is the direction of the entire model train production business.
Its a different part of the business than I'm concerned about.
No, the hobby is not dying. It is changing. We are so far down the road beyond where most people have any memory of steam. There are people who today want steam, but they literally want THE engine that they can see running somewhere. There are people who want Strasburg engine #90 because they can see it run (it was made in brass). People have been asking for it lately.
The vast majority are well into the diesel era now. The transition era modelers--though still some--are waning in numbers.
And from everything I've seen and been told, pre-orders are driving the market, unless maybe you are Bachmann and making one big run of something that your crystal ball says will sell, or Athearn's "Roundhouse" series of less detailed models (formerly MDC) or Atlas's "Trainman" series...
PRR8259Kevin-- Now we have a challenge with "generic" looking steam power. Mantua made lots of it years ago. It is being re-released or has been re-released under various labels including Model Power. The challenge is that with today's uber-detail-focused product reviews there are many folks who "don't want" generic steam, but instead want it "correct" for "their" railroad.
That is why I gave the example of the NYC F-12 4-6-0 in my post. It is a specific model from a popular prototype railroad, but looks generic enough that I can use it on my freelanced railroad.
The Bachmann 4-6-0 does not look right to me for my roster.
Not to sound negative, but I've mentioned NYC engines to others, lately, as in "why isn't there a plastic (NYC engine)?" and been told "NYC doesn't sell". Again, there already are generic 4-6-0's out there. What you really sound like you want is an actual NYC engine.
There are tons of USRA 2-8-2's painted Santa Fe. Santa Fe never had one. Even folks say certain Santa Fe 2-8-2's are "close" to the USRA or that the USRA 2-8-2 was "loosely based on specifications of" a certain Santa Fe 2-8-2. That's like saying a Ford Thunderbird convertible is "close to" a Miata. They are both convertibles, but that's about IT.
For the person who merely wants a 2-8-2, they might be a great purchase. Somebody is buying them.
NO Santa Fe 2-8-2 ever looked anything like a USRA light or heavy 2-8-2. The facts do not support those statements, so I too, want what I want.
PRR8259 been told "NYC doesn't sell".
That might well be, and I am not a steam locomotive expert, it was just an example. I am sure some other popular railroad had a decent looking modern 4-6-0 out there somewhere.
I will eventually buy a brass model of the NYC F12, so I do not have a dog in the fight, but I would buy a decent plastic one if it was available.
My Bachmann 2-8-0 died, and was replaced with a brass MA&PA 2-8-0. My Athearn 2-8-2 is dead and replaced with an Oriental Powerhouse 2-8-2. I think my last plastic steam locomotive is the beloved and remarkable EM-1 2-8-8-4. I was so happy when that one came to the market.
SeeYou190I would love to get a Walthers name train model set undecorated. I would settle for ANY of the name trains just so the STRATTON AND GILLETTE could have a nice model of a complete matching train. I contacted Walthers to find out how to get this done. I asked them to pull a train off the line with no paint. I did not need packaging or fully assembled, I just wanted to buy a full train. I even offered to pay a premium for this special service. Their nice response was that it is impossible to disrupt the assembly line for any reason. I cannot have my passenger train.
Kevin,
If you break down and strip the paint off a passenger car, you end up with an undec. Yeah, a bit more work than buying a factory-packed one, but you seem to do OK with decorating freight cars.
But it often is the case that people without your skills often do want to buy the exact model they desire RTR. If it's a big road with lots of modeling demand, you may be in luck. if not, then that's a sign you either need to pick up old-fashioned skills (in your case, you already have these) or simply change your prototype to one that's more popular or to one that see things your way as a freelancer.
The problem here may really be more a case where people somehow believed because Walthers does multiple paassenger trains of UP origin, they will surely do the same for, say, the Monon. I wish they would, but I'm not going to blame Walthers for not getting me the train I want. The numbers don't add up and I'm going to buy just one train if it ever does happen (which it might) unexpectedly. In the meantime, I can search for the old Walthers hospital train cars then start building my old.
Bottom line: If you're a model railroader and you want it, you can always build it.
Mike Lehman
Urbana, IL
I doubt that Athearn RTR, Athearn Genesis, Atlas Silver and Gold, Walthers Proto are waiting for pre-orders before they will produce something.
Athearn Genesis recently missed the market for a recent release, IMO. They released a new GP40-2 in various paint schemes. The CSX version sold out in about 2 weeks. Other road names are still available.
It tells me that they did not produce these items based upon the number of buyers that happened to respond during a pre-order window, or else they would have realized that twice as many modelers want the CSX version over the other names practically combined (if pre-orders accurately reflect the level of demand now or in the near future). They just used their judgement and came up way short on the CSX versions while the other schemes are in stock at various dealers.
mlehmanIf you break down and strip the paint off a passenger car, you end up with an undec. <SNIP> that's a sign you either need to pick up old-fashioned skills (in your case, you already have these)
The thing is, it is not just a matter of skill, but also desire.
I know I am passionate about my freight car fleet. I have no problem spending hours assembling a resin kit or "re-kitting" and stripping a RTR car to make what I want.
Passenger trains... not so much. I need two to complete my layout plans (actually three if you count the mail train), but I find bulding and painting passenger cars BORING!
This is not a problem, I already have the two I need. However, the new stuff Walthers puts out sure is slick, and I would spend the money if it was a simple upgrade with minimal work.
If I had real money, I would buy a modern set from The Coach Yard and pay a professional to repaint them for me.
Oh to dream.
SeeYou190ATLANTIC CENTRAL I hate the product hunt, just like I have no interest in buying/selling as a secondary part of the hobby. The hobby shop John mentioned, which I believe is Spring Creek Models in Deshler, Nebraska, is the best stocked hobby shop I have been inside of in ten years. It reminded me of Orange Blossom Hobbies in Miami in the 1970s. Still, since they are a well run hobby shop, the inventory turns rapidly, and most of what they have on the shelf was released in the past 12 months, and it would be difficult to find that complete passenger train. -Kevin
The hobby shop John mentioned, which I believe is Spring Creek Models in Deshler, Nebraska, is the best stocked hobby shop I have been inside of in ten years. It reminded me of Orange Blossom Hobbies in Miami in the 1970s.
Still, since they are a well run hobby shop, the inventory turns rapidly, and most of what they have on the shelf was released in the past 12 months, and it would be difficult to find that complete passenger train.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Be it online or in a store, the fact that a beginner cannot easily buy a locomotive and a matching set of passenger cars all at the same time in the same place, is a discouragement to new people.
Be it online or in a store, the fact that a beginner cannot easily buy a locomotive and a matching set of passenger cars all at the same time in the same place, is a discouragement to new people.
This idea came up in conversation with a friend of mine who is a current hobby store employee, and he feels the buyers mentality has changed. Since so much hobby information is online and the educated consumer knows what is available, they often come into the store he works at already looking for what they want, a specific request, knowing very well that the store likely doesn't have every single piece of equipment they want and they might have to bounce around between several online outlets and local shops. In addition he mentioned most of the newbie crowd (both people starting off and parents looking for gifts for their children) tend to buy the all-in-one train sets Bachmann, Athearn and other companies like that produce.He also pointed out another observation which I thought about further... not a lot of new members of the hobby these days have any reason to buy matching passenger consists, if in part because passenger rail has been greatly diminished over the last 50 years in the US. How many people under the age of 40 remember an America with more than Amtrak, a few tourist museums and UP's private fleet being their only major experiences with passenger rail? Freight rail, with its mismashed colors and messy appearnace though is extremely dominant and its very easy to model freight without worrying about well... matching anything at all! I have said it before, but if there is one last bastion of passenger rail experiences its in commuter rail, and I suspect it will grow to dominate the passenger model railcar production as the years go on.
SeeYou190The thing is, it is not just a matter of skill, but also desire.
A big gold star for your honesty here. At least you're not blaming Walthers, Athearn, the "market" or whoever for not being able to scratch that itch, which is so often the case in these discussions.
In fact, such discussions would have been looked at with an eyebrow set at "Really?!?" 30 years ago, when RTR hardly existed in HO and by just being in the hobby led to the assumption that you have at least some interest in learning many of the basic skills.
Now, there's relatively few basic skills needed if you stick with RTR. Pickers can't be choosers, though, a good thing to remember when the angst levels on what is being made - or not - in easy-to-unbox these days start rising.
Which is not to say RTR doesn't have a place. It most certainly does. Since Blackstone hit the market, I've built very few 3000 series boxcars, finishing my last 4 RailLine kits earlier this year after selling off most of my stock of those. It's so much easier to buy than to build even if you have the inclination and skills if the right product is available.
But convenience models, like convenience food, just don't satisfy like home cooked. If you've never tasted the difference, you'd not understand even though the hunger is satisfied either way. For more and more of us, that's just the way it is.
Douglas and others--
Just because you don't SEE Athearn talking about pre-orders on their website or facebook page does NOT mean they don't consider them BEFORE making the product. I can give you actual examples where they advertised a Genesis F unit in more than one version (eg. ICG orange and white "creamsicle", with multiple roof fans and grill arrangements), but the pre-orders were just not there, and they ended up quietly converting all orders into just the one version that they did actually end up making. Also, there actually was a public outcry on some forums when they cancelled a Genesis Seaboard Coast Line F Unit, and then made it or a similar version at a later date.
What you are not seeing is they generate the announcements like clockwork, almost on the same date each month, with a relatively limited reservation time window of perhaps a month or a couple. Then the big 6 remaining distributors place their orders. IF the orders aren't there, the item isn't getting made. It will be cancelled. They don't make a big deal about cancellations; they don't announce them to the world. The cancelled item numbers just quietly disappear (and no, I'm not smoking crack, you can go back and find the actual product announcements and see that the items just disappeared at a later point in time). Usually it's just one version out of several that were offered, when it happens.
With Athearn, it does seem to be less likely than some others.
riogrande5761 This thread is still going on? What John said is how it is. As for want, your expectations have to be tempered with reality. For the past 20 years I've seen people crying for certain engines that were uncommon and of course, we see big boy after big boy manufactured. Manufacturers are going to offer what THEY believe will sell and in numbers they estimate will live them hopefully with little or no leftover inventory.
This thread is still going on?
What John said is how it is. As for want, your expectations have to be tempered with reality. For the past 20 years I've seen people crying for certain engines that were uncommon and of course, we see big boy after big boy manufactured. Manufacturers are going to offer what THEY believe will sell and in numbers they estimate will live them hopefully with little or no leftover inventory.
slightly off topic, deleted
richhotrain,All manufacturers are producing limited runs. I hate to break this to you, but we are a niche market. Always have been, always will be. The difference between yesterday and today is that back then folks were either required to model railroads they didn't really want to model, or had to make up a fictional railroad to justify buying the stuff they could actually get. Today, folks can model what they really want (like Tony Koester).What this means is the Balkanization of our hobby. Everyone now gravitates to their own interests, which are as varied as each person is. This means that cheap, generic models just don't appeal to the average consumer like they used to. That has nothing to do with the overall health of the hobby, it's just different.As for our unsold diners, it's actually a perfect case to make in favor of pre-orders. If we, the NHRHTA, had only purchased what our pre-orders were (800) and added another 15% on top of that, we'd be in a good place financially. Instead, we went for the gold and got 1200 to get the best deal from Rapido. Now we have $42k worth of cars sitting around. If we sell them all, we'll make a nice chunk of change, far more than we would if we had only ordered 960...but we have to sell them first. How many years do you think it's going to take? Will it ever happen? Can't you see that underestimating demand is far superior to overestimating demand in this business? Because as you can clearly see, "Build it and they will sell" is false.I don't mind if we automatically rule out 90-95% of the buyers. If there's 250,000 model railroaders in the USA, a mere 5% of them is 12,500. That's over 10 times the number of diners we purchased. And for comparison's sake, we sold 2000 Rapido coaches and 1500 Rapido parlors before we got the diners. 1200 seemed a reasonable risk to take with those other numbers. But, while there are many folks that bought 4, 5, 6 or more coaches and/or parlors, most of our diner sales were 1, 2 or 3. Not due to the cost but rather that a NH train might have, at best, two diners on it while running 5 parlors or 8 coaches.Sheldon,What's funny here is that if someone who does spend $140 on a passenger car, $2400 on a brass steamer, or $50 on a freight car had just said the same exact thing you did about DC layouts, fictional railroads, and Athearn BB's ("That's not my idea of model railroading."), the loud accusations of elitism on this forum would be heard from space. Doughless,How quickly does the manufacturer have to sell the item? Depends. Every company has to spend a bunch of money and then not have any income from it for about 2 months. Where did the money come from? The sooner they get the income, the sooner they can pay it off or re-invest in something else. If they don't keep their mind on the cash flow, they'll prove true the old adage, "The way to make a small fortune in model railroading is to start with a large one."Sheldon,No, the manufacturers do not miss a lot of sales because they don't keep in stock everything they make for years. They advertise the heck out of product for a year or more; in print, online, in person at shows. Anyone who isn't living under a rock should be aware that a product they want is being made. How many more sales do you think there would be? In our case, we've sold another 12% over our pre-orders in the past 8 months. Where's the rest of this large number of sales?Doughless,Um, Athearn takes pre-orders. If you don't recall a huge Athearn pre-order marketing survey, it's because you haven't noticed. Go to Athearn.com right now. On the front page is a GP15-1 in GMTX. In the upper left, it says, "June Announcements - Pre Orders Due: 6-26-2020".Athearn also adjusts their production based on pre-order demand. For proof, look at the NS Heritage units. They announced them and the pre-order response was great. They decided to make more of them to fill the pre-order demand, which actually dropped the unit price. Yes, that really happened! Lastspikemike,The mailing of product to customers and dealers is born by the customer and dealer, not the manufacturer. Therefore, it has no bearing on production costs.Yes, wages overseas are very low compared to here, but then living costs over there are very low compared to here. At Rapido's factories in China, the workers are considered to be well paid.York1, I'm not upset and never have been, just making a point that your discussion about subsidized mail costs were not only off topic on this thread, but off topic to this hobby (while also bringing a whiff of politics). I didn't want people getting confused and thinking that mailing costs from China have any effect on our hobby.Doughless,So you think that manufacturers should stock 3 years worth of spare inventory just in case some one changes their mind and didn't pre-order when they had the chance? How many units would be a 3 year inventory? 10? 50? Do you have any idea how much money that would cost?In the past three years, Athearn has announced over 1500 different diesel loco SKU's. Seriously. Over 20 pages with 72 items per page going back to July 2017. Even if they only kept 10 of each loco (that's 15,000 locos), and they all cost just $100 each (which you know they don't), they'd have to warehouse $1,500,000 worth of inventory just in case a guy 3 years down the road might want something. And that's not counting steam engines or rolling stock.How much money do you think they have?Your point about how "...most profit is made during the time when the last units are sold, because those units have the lowest production costs," doesn't work. Everything is made all at the same time in a production run batch. It costs just as much to make the first unit as it does to make the last unit (and all are 100% paid for before they leave the dock). Where companies can make good money is on the second (and later) runs when all the tooling costs have been paid for by the first run.And don't mistake a quick roadname sell out for being more popular. If Athearn only made 100 CSX engines and have none left while also making 500 SP engines and have 50 left, the SP is still over 4 times more popular than CSX.FWIW, I just went to Athearn's website and they list 3 different Genesis CSX GP40-2's as "In Stock".
Well said Paul.
I see some of the diners have the warm orange on them...contemplating getting one...
PRR8259I see some of the diners have the warm orange on them...
Guilty
N-H_diner2 by Edmund, on Flickr
Diner_patrons6 by Edmund, on Flickr
Regards, Ed
Let's be honest, no one likes pre-orders. No one looks forward to pre-orders. No one wants to see model railroading turn into a pre-order business model.
If a manufacturer thinks that a specific model is such a good idea, then build it. That is what capitalism is all about. That's what entrepreneurs do.
What a pre-order is really all about is a manufacturer who throws out an idea and then sits back and waits to see how many modelers beg him to build it.
What pre-order does is to turn the concept of supply and demand on its head and reverse the concept into one of demand and supply.
Rich
Alton Junction
richhotrainIf a manufacturer thinks that a specific model is such a good idea, then build it. That is what capitalism is all about. That's what entrepreneurs do.
Ummm, no. Capitalism is about making money. And part of being a good entrepreneur is making decisions about supply/demand/cost and so forth. It is not about laying out a bunch of one's own money to obtain product to store in a warehouse hoping that enough of the fickle populace will purchase (eventually) so that I can break even.
To use the New Haven group's car as an example, it looks like they tried to do it correctly. They had an idea and tested the waters. Had they just gone with the pre-orders they would have made out okay. But then it appears that they made a poor business decision. So right now they have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
I see a difference between pre-order and pre-pay.
If someone wants to ask for pre-orders and is using that to gauge demand, what's so bad about that? Right now Rapido is looking for pre-orders on PC X72 and SP B-100-40 half-waffle boxcars. Would you be interested in one of those? Probably not. Would Sheldon be interested? Absolutely not. Am I? Absolutely yes.
I have no problem pre-ordering, so long as there is not any pre-payment involved. I don't need whatever it is tomorrow. And if the item turns into vapor-ware, so what? Since it wasn't going to be made anyway, then that's no skin off my nose. And FWIW, I have never been asked for pre-payment.
Yes, I know that some of the limited run items will eventually show up on ebay, hoswap, and elsewhere. But time is also money. I don't want to waste a bunch of time and energy searching for something just to save a couple dollars.
I want pre-orders!!!!!!!!!!!
I want to know for certain that I'm going to actually receive the road pilot version and the switching pilot version of BLI's upcoming Santa Fe 2-8-2, in the road numbers that I've researched and know that I want based upon where they actually operated and when (my thanks to the hysterical society).
I want to know the price I'm going to pay (dealer already told me) so that I have time to save up for several mikados. Plus my dealer will also allow a layaway even on pre-ordered items and I will still get the same discount as if I pay cash immediately on arrival (though I would rather pick them up immediately).
I am not going to have to worry about my dealer being SHORTED on his order because some item is hot and only went to the biggest most powerful dealers as STILL happens far too often in other scales! I am not going to worry about missing out on the product as it turns up (surprise) without my even knowing about it, and then gets bought out from under me by others. In the old days, new products just plain showed up. YOU the customer likely had absolutely NO IDEA the new product was coming, because advertising in advance was much more limited than today. You didn't even know what year the product was coming, and sometimes even then they advertised products for 5 years and never actually produced and sold them. I cannot tell you the countless number of times I actually unloaded 100 cases of trains off a truck to then have my boss be totally surprised at what showed up (it had been so long that he forgot what he ordered, and we were actually a distributor, not just a store).
EVEN THEN (40 years ago) the manufacturers were also using dealer reservations. You could only get certain models at the biggest selling dealers. Some were actually allocated based upon a points system to reward the "best" dealers (Pacific Fast Mail).
Reservation or pre-order...I don't care what you want to call it. It is NOT new. Apparently some of you never had to deal with Lionel orders, either.
Finally, items like Athearn bluebox freight cars that we take for granted today ONLY arrived once every year or every other year, whenever they felt like making them again. Then they sold out right away, and if you missed it, tough, it is gone till next time a year or two from now.
maxmanI see a difference between pre-order and pre-pay.
Yeah, collapsing the two together misunderstands and misstates the issues.
The mfg who is asking for pre-orders is simply doing the market research as best they can in the nearly total absence of R&D budgets or depts. What better thing to do than ask those who might buy them is do they want it?
And what is the alternative? Sending company reps to train shows to pass out surveys to the crowds? Expensive and not practical right now anyway. Cold calling model railroaders if you could somehow get their numbers? That won't be popular either. Waving one's hands around in the air then throwing a dart at a list of choices? Cheap but hardly conclusive.
Thus the idea of simply asking if you want one was born.
I've NEVER been charged for a pre-order.
I suppose there could be circumstances that if you didn't respond to a pick-up order from a vendor that might result in some degree of disgruntlemnt on their part, but I think they'd probably just sell it to someone else. Ask beforehand if that might be an issue for you.
Now, people who want things sign up for pre-orders and there is the chance that the numbers won't add up. Bummer. But we're better off to get a little cancellation bad news from time to time than we are to just always count on customers "showing up" based on a hunch, leading to the failure of businesses that we all hope would otherwise be around in the future so long as they watch their budget and sales.
John,
Pre-orders still do not guarantee delivery. I've seen pre-orders get cancelled because there wasn't enough interest to meet the unspecified minimum quota in order to make the run financially viable for the manufacturer. It does happen on occasion.
Tom
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.