QUOTE: Originally posted by BRAKIE First I will say again I am using DCC.However,I am not blinded by the fact that Manufacturers still produces more DCC ready locomotives then DCC equipped.There are 47 members in the club that I go to..Only SIX of us use DCC.There was 7 of us but one has returned to DC. Now if everybody was using DCC then MRC would go out of business..
QUOTE: Originally posted by Phil1361 I agree real trains do not have "cruise control"
QUOTE: Paul, I realize that your only purpose in responding to this and other forum threads is, and always has been, to create arguments based only on your own personal opinions as to the state of the hobby. However, I will offer some replies for the sake of reader interest.
QUOTE: The 15% of hobbyists using DCC as of a year or two ago can be looked up in MR's editorials. It was based on a survey they took, probably with a very suibstantial base.
QUOTE: Purporting that between the 7 or 8 companies out there making decoders must have then sold millions of decoders is an absurdity when one considers only perhaps 10k to 20k hobbyists are into DCC to begin with. They'd have to be running upwards of 100 DCC locos each!
QUOTE: Why is this a hot topic? Because some of the DCC fellas just wanted to talk and speculate about fantastic but largely unrealizable devices in the future of DCC. Its in the same category as the articles Scientific American used to run in the 1950's, saying that by 1980 we'd have a helicopter in every garage and robot servants. It's fun to speculate but few really take it as an honest possibility.
QUOTE: As I've already indicated, DCC is a niche market, with something like 15%-20% of hobbyists involved. After a decade (16 years according to you) these figures hardly represent great inroads to me.
QUOTE: For non-operations hobbyists, except the the case of those having an "empire", DC will handle the running of trains just as well as DCC.
QUOTE: Finally, with the dramatic evolution of technology today, new systems of all types are appearring almost out of thin air every few years.
QUOTE: Lets further assume that the North American model railroad market is 240,000 people, and that 15% of them are DCC users. Doing the math, 240K x .15 x 30 = 1,080,000 and that is just in North America. So, I don't think that Paul's assessment is far off.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 If one honestly steps back from this thread for a moment, they will appreciate that most of the concepts and ideas being expressed here are those of our hobby's electronics junkies (a term meant with no disrespect whatever). As such, it is a very different outlook than that held by the great majority of model railroaders....
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
QUOTE: Originally posted by ericboone QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 A million DCC-equipped units borders on astronomical considering the probable number of hobbyists overall. How can one possibly justify such a huge figure? This was already stated once. Look at http://www.lenz.com. Right at the top of the page is written "Over 1 Million Decoders Sold". Do you think Lenz is not telling the truth?
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 A million DCC-equipped units borders on astronomical considering the probable number of hobbyists overall. How can one possibly justify such a huge figure?
Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 Paul, I realize that your only purpose in responding to this and other forum threads is, and always has been, to create arguments based only on your own personal opinions as to the state of the hobby. However, I will offer some replies for the sake of reader interest. The 15% of hobbyists using DCC as of a year or two ago can be looked up in MR's editorials. It was based on a survey they took, probably with a very suibstantial base. I'm not about to go searching for this particular issue/editorial but I will guarantee you will find it if you do. I do agree that polls on this and other forums prove absolutely nothing and the numbers are not statistically significant and often bias.
QUOTE: The number of DCC equipped locos out there? Lets be realistic about production runs. While many models are issued as DCC ready (with a harness to allow decoder installation), far fewer come DCC equipped from the factory. Out side of BLI, I don't recall many other engines where 100% of the run is DCC equipped. Given that most production runs currently seem to be no more than a thousand or two units (just like brass used to be!), one can not say that there are hundreds of thousands of DCC equipped units out there...let alone a million or more! Do you honestly believe that every DCC ready engine actually gets an after-market decoder? And I personally don't care what any manufacturer claims these days, most claims are just hype to sell more products. Purporting that between the 7 or 8 companies out there making decoders must have then sold millions of decoders is an absurdity when one considers only perhaps 10k to 20k hobbyists are into DCC to begin with. They'd have to be running upwards of 100 DCC locos each!
QUOTE: As I've already indicated, DCC is a niche market, with something like 15%-20% of hobbyists involved. After a decade (16 years according to you) these figures hardly represent great inroads to me. As to resistance to DCC, yes there are a multitude of preferences among hobbyists, some still even running paper-sided cars. But most longtime modelers are unwilling to accept DCC simply for the reason it would require very considerable expense to convert. DCC will never have a chance at becoming dominant until the entire host of Baby Boomer hobbyists pass from the scene.
QUOTE: For non-operations hobbyists, except the the case of those having an "empire", DC will handle the running of trains just as well as DCC. The idea that you need to run several trains at once with just a single operator (often on nothing more than a 4x8 layout) is silliness and I've seen the Gomez-like results of this on several DCC layouts. Running several trains at the brink of control is more like slot cars than model railroading.
QUOTE: Finally, with the dramatic evolution of technology today, new systems of all types are appearring almost out of thin air every few years. To believe that DCC could remain the absolute best system for operating model trains over the next 10-20 years is to be naive nowadays.
QUOTE: I do feel that we lost a lot with DCC. A friend is starting out with a layout and using good ol' DC. I'm building a throttle for him, and man the stuff I can easily do with a DC signal (emulating brakes, sand, fuel and water etc) that I would have to be a super PIC programmer to do with DCC. DCC shuts out a lot of the old amateur electronics.
QUOTE: A chip in every bit of rolling stock is very close. RFID chips are plummeting in cost - sooin they'll be on every can of coke. How long after that before some hacker figures out how to re-use the free chips that come with everything you buy? Cut it off the can, slip it into the frame of a boxcar. A cheap home-made reader that needs only have a range of 2 inches, an old PC and you are in business. ANyone out there already have access to used RFID tags? If so, start hacking!!!
QUOTE: I completely agree about the video-in-cab stuff. I think we will go back to fixed cabs instead of walkaround, with prototypical controls and a monitor that can be toggled from forward view to reverse (a protptypical engineers view is pretty lousy anyway, escpecially in steam). We'll need a brakeman following the train just like the prototype too.
QUOTE: Paul,Sorry I disagree..You can't really compare the X2F coupler to DCC..The manufacturers keep those things alive and well..I still give DCC seven years tops..I really don't see the hordes rushing out to buy DCC starter sets.
QUOTE: Contrary to popular belief and MRR magazine DCC is not the best thing since slice bread.
QUOTE: Read the article on DCC power blocks in the January '05 issue of MR..Nothing but supped up blocks like one would need for DC wiring. That will not really help the cause on how one doesn't need block wiring with DCC like they do with DC...
QUOTE: In this same vain, let me offer the following facts to the discussion that can be backed up by published figures. Paul talks about the impossibility of DCC vanishing from the scene anytime soon were a different and better system to appear, if for no other reason than that there are "millions" of decoder-equipped locomotives out there. To be realistic, I very much doubt there are more than about 25k such engines currently in circulation.
QUOTE: DCC has certainly not taken the hobby by storm (in spite of what is suggested in MR or on this forum) and for a wide spectrum of modelers there is a downright resistance to switching to DCC.
QUOTE: Likewise, addressing just how many folks are even into DCC, MR had an editorial about two years ago discussing this subject. At that time they cited only 15% of hobbyists were using DCC, while a further 10% thought they might consider it in the future. I doubt those figures have changed dramatically in the past 24 months and demonstrates that DCC is still really a niche market.
QUOTE: Approaching the subject from another direction, most posters here seem to consider DCC a God-sent for operations. But remember that, down through the years, one formal survey after another has indicated that better than 2/3 of model railroaders are not into operations in any formal manner at all. Rather, they are interested in running trains and swapping out cars here and there on a whim.
QUOTE: So, while DCC may indeed suit the needs on some hobbyists very well, it is far from being considered a necessity by most of us and is unlikely in my opinion to ever become more than an alternative choice to DC as a method of powering a layout.
QUOTE: There are likely to be better operating systems not too far down the road and when they appear you may well see a dramatic change in the way model trains are run.
QUOTE: One of the biggest parts on a decoder is the power transistor for controlling the motor. If they made decoders that only transponded and didn't have to control anything the size and cost would drop. I expect decoders no larger than a capacitor that can be mounted across an HO wheel axle.
QUOTE: With the increased demand we are already seeing in the market, and the normal digital price deflation, I expect normal decoders to get down into the $2 range. The specialized ones as mentioned above would be less that $1 each.
QUOTE: Originally posted by JerryZeman QUOTE: With transponders in every car interfacing to the computer, it knows where the cars are on the layout. Do you think that there is a large enough customer base to support the development cost to make this a reality?
QUOTE: With transponders in every car interfacing to the computer, it knows where the cars are on the layout.
QUOTE: Originally posted by JoeW14626 JerryZeman, What ever became of the great MTH - Zeman challange ?
QUOTE: Currently, if a car is removed or added to the layout, the information about car location must be updated manually. Heaven forbid that you "play" between operating sessions and move many cars around. Well, if present trends continue, the cost of electronics will continue to fall and soon it will be affordable to put transponders or 2-way communicating decoders in each car. With the detection systems that already exist, it would be possible to electronically keep track of the location of cars on your layout.
QUOTE: Current DCC throttles are just that, throttles. Imagine having a realistic controller.
QUOTE: You could make the PDA controller look like the inside of a real cab.
QUOTE: The back EMF technology also acts as "cruise control" for your train. If your train starts going up a grade, the decoder increases power to the motor to compensate. This feature is unrealistic.
QUOTE: I agree real trains do not have "cruise control" but I like the cruise feature especially on down grades. I don't like to be constantly adjusting the throttle on a grade. I just pretend the engineer inside the locomotive is doing just that.
QUOTE: I often thought it would be possible, at least in O scale and larger, to equip a caboose with a free-rolling gear drive with something like an open-core motor that wasn't powerful enough to actually move the train, but to provide some resistance to the movement - thus, a brake.
QUOTE: Just think of the days when DCC becomes the standard and is included in every train set.
QUOTE: I hope they come up with a better way to uncouple cars. I am builting a large classification yard and want to be able to built trains in a more realistic way. I am hoping to do this with dcc and not have to do know so much with my hand.
QUOTE: I think someday the computer will overtake all forms of train control...
QUOTE: Whoo hoo, someone thinking forward. About a two years ago on rec.railroad I got involved in a rather heated discussion with some people who thought DCC was the ultimate that could never be inproved upon.
QUOTE: When the flames started and they challenged me to describe ANY way DCC could be improved upon I posted an 80 point response...A decoder on every piece of rolling stock, perhaps even on every axle. Feedback from all sorts of things about the locomotive, on not only engine load, but drawbar tension, rpm, temperature, scale speed, simulated fuel load & consumption, sand, water, air pressure in the brakes.
QUOTE: Then add digital video from all sides of the locomomtive so a remote throttle booth could enable the engineer to "see out" of the cab.
QUOTE: I imagine throttles that look more like a real loco cab rather than just something to increase the voltage.
QUOTE: Since the amount of data the decoder is able to send back is somewhat limited, several of the things you mentioned either could or should be simulated at the command center and throttle.
QUOTE: Hmmm, well I've stated my preferences before, andthey are somewhat similar to what you guys posted above...
QUOTE: i cant wait to see a decoder with synchronised sound and smoke. seuthe smoke machines are very realistic and with a fan added can simulate diesel plumes and steam exhaust. that would be fantastic.
QUOTE: i like thi idea of having moving vehicles on my model roads.
QUOTE: I suspect DCC like all of the other great controllers of the past will fade into the sunset only to be replace with a better control system that will not require decoders and perhaps not even wire to the track..There is no doubt this will happen within the next 5-7 years as the DCC market begins to stabilize and drop in sales except for decoders..
QUOTE: Not to rain on anybody's parade but I think Brakie is closer to the truth than most DCCers would like to hear. DCC has been around something like a decade now. yet, I have seen no major poll or survey to indicate that it is employed by more than 20%-25% of hobbyists after all that time.
QUOTE: The majority of longtime modelers are still DC oriented and unlikely to change in the near future.
QUOTE: Most of the potentially unique features DCC might offer/be desired in the future according to posters here are items that would honestly appeal to only a very small percentage of modelers. It is unlikely that most would ever be offered commercially because of this very limited demand.
QUOTE: Instead, the locos will be self-powered and operated by wireless remote control and much sooner than you think. As long as power is obtained through the track or signals carried therein, there remain too many problems.
QUOTE: With the amazing technical advancements we are seeing elsewhere in self-contained power systems, ten years from now I expect DCC (and DC as well) will likely be nothing more than a memory among model railroaders.
QUOTE: No reason DCC could not be replaced, and quickly, in the near future...Soon all locos come with this 'new Digital' standard controller, and bang - DCC is dead.
QUOTE: So with this "no-track" scenario DCC is an albatros.
QUOTE: If the power doesn't neet to be transmitted, why not just use a much more efficient and common computer protocol?
QUOTE: Why pervert DCC into something it was not designed for, especially when there are much more robust and mature technologies out there?
QUOTE: Exactly, the original DCC was almost obsolete before it got into common usage. Sort of like the original DVDs that can't be played on any of the new players. Anything digital becomes obsolete very quickly.
QUOTE: Extend this thought. There is no reason the camera's in the locomotive couldn't send input to MTS and use it to control the DCC trains.
QUOTE: Plus it can operate in several modes, in addition to the normal train schedule mode, operation could be driven by industry demands sort of like "Railroad Tycoon" game. Much more interesting for the dispatcher who then makes up the needed trains on the fly.
QUOTE: I can imagine the clubs call-out-board being based on engineer & switchman's performance.
QUOTE: I've been waiting for some feed back on this. I have never understood the twitter over controlling turnouts from the locomotive controller. It always seemed like a lot of extra button pushing switching back and forth between turnout/locomotive/next turnout/locomotive.....I've always though it seemed much more like playing a video game rather than running a railroad, but never actually met/talked anyone who had done it on a scale large enough to be significant.
QUOTE: Originally posted by Texas Zepher Extend this thought. There is no reason the camera's in the locomotive couldn't send input to MTS and use it to control the DCC trains.
QUOTE: You are not alone here but that's the underlying point. With transponders in every car interfacing to the computer, it knows where the cars are on the layout (and whether they are loaded, loading, or unloaded) so the operational software becomes 95% easier. Plus it can operate in several modes, in addition to the normal train schedule mode, operation could be driven by industry demands sort of like "Railroad Tycoon" game. Much more interesting for the dispatcher who then makes up the needed trains on the fly. Since the computer also knows the location and movement of cars it can rate the operating sessions on all sorts of interesting metrics. I can imagine the clubs call-out-board being based on engineer & switchman's performance.
QUOTE: Originally posted by BRAKIE Randy said:Well, there are a lot of people who's "thing" in this hobby is the accurate simulation of a real transportation system. In other words, "put that blue box car over byt he feed mill" isn't good enough, it has to be "the box car carrying equipment that is billed to the feed mill". Nothing wrong in that, and it's actually kinda fun. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Absolutely! I would not even think about operating my HO or N scale industrial switching layout with some form of car forwarding system.[:D][tup] To my mind that is when my models become a TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM and not models...[:p][:D] Of course to each his/her own way of enjoying their layout...[;)]
QUOTE: Originally posted by joecool1212 With these computer controlled systems some are talking about , knowing where the cars are and whats loaded and not we could just forget the model layout and just make believe. Dosen't sound like model railroading to me DCC or not. Joe A
Modeling the Reading Railroad in the 1950's
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